Yermak-McFaul Expert Group on Russian Sanctions
@sanctionsgroup
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Yermak-McFaul International Expert Group is a leading platform for promoting sanctions against Russia. Working papers, comments, and statements.
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Unilever still chooses to stay in 🇷🇺 and paid about $50 million in taxes to the budget of the Russian Federation in 2022 thus supporting the war efforts. All Western companies must leave 🇷🇺 and stop being complicit in the war.
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Well deserved 🇺🇦Order of Merit for Michael McFaul
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we estimate that Russia has lost $140-170 bn in oil and gas revenues since Russia’s invasion. Russian oil and gas revenues have fallen sharply this year, reflected in a two-thirds decline in Russia’s trade surplus and a 50% decline in oil and gas budget revenues
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“We can chase down dozens and hundreds of shell companies used to circumvent sanctions. But it is the manufacturer who knows who they are selling to, even if there are intermediaries”, says Pavlo Verkhniatskyi
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Wow Canada just announced sanctions against 🇷🇺propagandists! So many familiar names:
- Russia Today
- Oleg Gazmanov
- Irina Allegrova
- Nikolay Baskov
- Dima Bilan
Keep going💪🏻
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This night: a record high 110 missiles strike.
Kindzhal, S-300, X-101, X-59...
A lot of sanctions measures have been done, a lot of enforcement has to be done to stop russians produce missiles.
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SANCTIONS UPDATE. Sanctions pressure on 🇷🇺 has increased slightly over the past week. There is progress in strengthening sanctions on individuals, SOEs, and trade, making now 36% accomplished. Work on the rest continues.
@Nataliia_Shapo
@vladvlas
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🇷🇺 is extremely active in using drones for massive attacks on infrastructure, civilian and military targets in 🇺🇦, so it is very disturbing to see that important components for the production of hostile UAVs come from different countries –
@AndriyYermak
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President Zelensky about our suggestion on individual sanctions on propagandists who support terror agains Ukraine.
@McFaul
@AndriyYermak
@vladvlas
@daria_sofina
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Working Group Paper
#15
Why and How the West Should Seize Russia’s Sovereign Assets to Help Rebuild Ukraine
@anders_aslund
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A ban on Russian imports should remain the priority. But an interim measure designed to stem Moscow’s profits from energy sales more quickly — a punitive EU tariff on Russian oil, proposed by the US and others — is worth looking at too.
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Russia is changing the procedure for determining oil prices used to calculate taxes. Now the oil companies will have to pay more, even though the URALS price is decreasing.
Sanctions do work, making Russia to run out of money.
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What sanctions against Russia would you impose? Please suggest: new ideas, or extension of the existing sanctions...
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Myth №1: Sanctions are not effective
Reality: 🇷🇺 economy will need 10 years to recover to the level at the beginning of 2022
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In the first half of September, Russian oil exports fell by 26%. This is almost a million barrels per day. The oil revenues river will soon dry up.
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1,035 sanctions have been imposed against 🇷🇺 & 🇧🇾 criminals in the last month. Sanctions have also expanded in the economy, affecting 111 financial entities and dozens of SOEs. Another 14,000 individuals and companies must be sanctioned according to
@NAZK_gov
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A decent sanctions expert’s conversation. Michael McFaul says the group is making it safe for the governments to push for more sanctions.
@McFaul
@Mylovanov
@ben_moll
@KSE_Institute
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‘We can either defeat 🇷🇺 now with full-scale
#sanctions
and stepped up military support to 🇺🇦, or prepare to defeat them in a larger war later’ – writes
@AndriyYermak
for
@thetimes
and calls for the
#sanctions
summit to better co-ordinate the response.
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The price cap’s leverage is declining as🇷🇺 increasingly relies on a sanctions-proof shadow fleet for its oil exports. Ultimately, this allows to maneuver around the sanctions regime, realize higher prices, and increase export earnings as well as budget revenues in upcoming months
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As long as there is no energy embargo, 🇷🇺 will have enough money to finance the war and maintain the economy. As long as all 🇷🇺 banks are not blocked, the Kremlin financiers can solve any inconvenience and continue to maintain the flow of currencies.
Lessons learned from Russia sanctions: (i) Russia's current account surplus makes it less vulnerable to financial sanctions; (ii) key is to sanction ALL Russian banks, not just some; (iii) to really hurt Russia, you must hit its c/a surplus, which only an energy embargo does...
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Logistics in Russia must be sanctioned
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Reportedly EU is discussing disconnection four more 🇷🇺 banks from SWIFT: Gazprombank, Alfa-Bank, Rosbank and Tinkoff Bank. Gazprombank handles payments for Russian gas exports. We suggested disconnection all top-30 🇷🇺 banks in April.
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Our analysis suggests that the sweet spot for the discount is about $50/bbl. The price around $35/bbl with a $50/bbl discount and current global prices – will still be above Russia’s cost of production, which is in the $10-15/bbl range, preserving the incentive to supply.
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Over the spring of 2022 🇬🇷 shipowners transported more than 19 mln tons of 🇷🇺 oil for a total amount of $19 bln. 104 oil tankers!
@MarineTraffic
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Should companies still operating in Russia be subjected to windfall tax? Make money in Russia – pay for reconstruction of Ukraine.
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SANCTIONS UPDATE. Our Action Plan has already been implemented by 45%!
🇪🇺 approved package 6, 🇺🇸 imposed sanctions on Putin's yachts and planes, 🇹🇼 banned exports of many high-tech goods and equipment for production
Weekly monitoring by
@kse_ua
@Nataliia_Shapo
@vladvlas
1\8
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Shared with the partners. A lot of work required to stop it.
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The 🇪🇺7th sanctions package is being discussed further. Inclusion of a number of 🇷🇺 banks involved in financing war in SDN list is on the table.
We would simply go after all the top 30 including Gazprombank. Gas payments can easily be kept under separate mechanism.
#sanctions
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The full-year 🇷🇺 deficit makes 3.3 trillion rubles (or 2.3% of GDP).
Who says sanctions don't work?
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(1) terrorism - "deliberate, politically motivated violence committed against civilians"
(2) 🇷🇺 has hit civilian infrastructure sites leaving millions of Ukrainians without electricity, water and heat.
(3) 🇷🇺 must be designated state sponsor of terrorism.
Just as simple as 1,2,3
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Statement on Why Russia Should Be Excluded from the Financial Task Force on Money Laundering (FATF).
In April the International Working Group on Russian Sanctions recommended that Russia be excluded from FATF
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Interesting story with the turbine that has been undergoing repairs in the workshops of Siemens Energy Canada.
There is certain data suggesting Germany is pushing Canada to give the turbine back to 🇷🇺.
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Well, Phillipp Kirkorov`s attempt at Grammy is another great illustration of why the 🇷🇺propagandist must be sanctioned.
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In October last year, our group released a statement outlining the full set of reasons why 🇷🇺 should be blacklisted.
Since then we’ve seen some progress, with Russia’s role within FATF restricted. However, the main long-awaited decision is yet to be made
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A joint UK-EU prohibition on maritime insurance would constitute the most comprehensive restriction to date on Russian
#oil
, ending access to much of the global tanker fleet for Moscow’s exports. EU and UK should stay firm and implement this urgently👇
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The list of advanced technology items banned from export to Russia, has been expanded to include 50 additional items:
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Starting from today, EU is not buying Russian refined oil products anymore: diesel, gasoline, naphtha...
In 2021, EU payed to Russia 30 billion for oil products. So this gives estimation of how much money Russia will be losing.
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Not happy with the draft sanctions package
#11
- no diamonds
- no Rosatom
- no IT services
- no more banks listed
- rather soft language on the transit bans
We appreciate the hard work behind though, but let's push for more meaningful provisions.
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We are so proud of new 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇨🇦sanctions. So much work has been done. And more is coming.
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Wheat prices are back at pre-war levels immediately after 🇷🇺 ceased its illegal military activity blocking 🇺🇦ports –
@FT
So the reason was never sanctions!
Same with gas and oil – not sanctions but the 🇷🇺aggression itself causes prices soar. To stop it, more sanctions required.
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Not enough sanctions. The Rosatom must not feel untouchable.
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o Sanctions against Rosatom
o Sanctions against propagandists
o Further sanctions against financial institutions of the Russian Federation, and not only banking ones
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New white paper from the Working Group: "Individual Sanctions Roadmap: Recommendations for Sanctions against the Russian Federation"
we need more pro-putin individuals sanctioned to make Kremlin stop the war!
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EU's 8th sanctions package:
- prohibiting 🇪🇺 officials to sit on 🇷🇺 governing bodies (as we suggested in April!)
- new import bans and export controls (aviation, chemical, electronics)
- tightening enforcement of sanctions
- frameworking oil price cap
Hope to see Gazprombank
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Since February 2022, the EU has immobilized private assets totaling more than 20 billion euros. These belong to approximately 1,800 subjects of the Russian Federation - both legal entities and individuals included in the 11 EU sanctions packages.
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🇷🇺 imposed sanctions against 15 members of the Yermak-McFaul group. This is the best recognition of the effectiveness of our work
However 🇷🇺 failed to get all the names right. So some of us still have a chance to spend the summer in Sochi
@CraigKennedy77
@BLSchmitt
@edwardfishman
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Putin is blackmailing 🇪🇺 into cutting gas supplies because sanctions are not strong enough. Indecisiveness does more harm than a tough response to the Kremlin's actions.
If Putin is able to ship oil globally - thanks to Greek ships (blue) - he can hold Europe hostage by cutting his gas exports. That's because he gets tons of cash from oil exports, so less gas doesn't hurt him much. Sanctioning maritime insurance stops this. With
@JonathanPingle
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SANCTIONS UPDATE. 60% of our Action Plan has been implemented!
🇪🇺 imposed the 7th sanctions package, 🇷🇺 gold banned, 🇬🇧 individual sanctions expanded, 🇷🇺 is closer to being labelled as a state sponsor of terrorism
Weekly monitoring by
@kse_ua
,
@Nataliia_Shapo
,
@vladvlas
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It is reported that Russia's budget deficit in January amounted to 1.76 trillion rubles. This is 60.1% of the planned budget deficit for the whole of 2023.
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Action Plan 2.0 – to outline a roadmap for sanctions policy development and new actions in 2023 – is almost ready. Coming soon!
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Things are much worse than the reported 2% drop in GDP. Sales of new cars, sales of new computers, those dropped by 40% to 60%. And if you remove military activity from the data, production looks far worse
@JeffSonnenfeld
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Six months into the invasion, Russian airlines are starting to take apart western planes for spare parts. But sanctions "are not working".
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Think the same
Time for the EU to stop kowtowing to Greek shipping oligarchs and cut the G7 cap. Putin is wobbling. Any additional pressure helps. Greek ships carry 64% of Russia's oil exports out of Black Sea ports & 44% out Baltic ports. Time for the EU to represent the many & not the few...
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More than 1,000 international companies are in process of leaving 🇷🇺, 430 have already suspended business. However almost 600 companies stay, continuing to finance Putin's bloody war. All their names are now known
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The West has refrained from imposing full
#sanctions
on 🇷🇺’s energy firms due to dependency on 🇷🇺’s supplies and the need to pay for energy imports. Now that this relationship has weakened, it is time for 🇷🇺’s
#oil
and
#gas
companies as well as Gazprombank to face full sanctions.
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Working in 🇷🇺 = funding the killing of civilians in 🇺🇦
Many companies have left 🇷🇺 in the name of humanity, kindness & honor. To others it is not enough
🇷🇺 soldiers are hired through ads on
@avito
. And here they sell their loot. We call on
@Naspers
to
#CancelRussia
@Makeiev
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Sanctions work. Despite a temporary increase in oil and gas revenues due to higher prices, 🇷🇺 will soon begin to lose money
Analysis by
@kse_ua
@Nataliia_Shapo
@vladvlas
shows that the drop in revenues could become critical by the end of 2023
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Well, sanctions on Russian athletes might very well be on the paper
#3
from our experts. Individual sanctions roadmap, coming soon
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Due to the risk of secondary sanctions, the banks of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) limited their accounts for russians and began to close the accounts of companies and individuals.
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Meeting of
@McFaul
and group members with
@ZelenskyyUa
After sharing views and listening to priorities, we are ready to continue working hard on sanctions recommendations.
@AndriyYermak
@OleksiyDanilov
@Svyrydenko_Y
@vladvlas
@Dazarivnaya
@Mylovanov
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SANCTIONS UPDATE. The agreement on the 6th 🇪🇺 sanctions package was an important development, we look forward to its adoption. But keep going!
This is particularly important given that progress on strengthening sanctions against 🇷🇺 in the last two weeks has been the lowest.
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A bit disturbing to hear the 🇪🇺 hesitation to confiscate 🇷🇺 sovereign assets. If not, who pay for the damages then? The member states taxpayers? Sometimes it more important to seek justice, not legal framework
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)) of course this is just re export of sanctioned goods
German exports to Kyrgyzstan are up 2000% in the past 3 years. Value of these exports is small, but this is just one of many examples showing how hard it is to police export controls on western goods to Russia. Better to cut G7 cap. If Putin has no cash, he can't buy stuff...
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SANCTIONS UPDATE. Already 50% of our Action Plan has been implemented!
🇳🇴 joined the sixth sanctions package, 🇬🇧 imposed new trade restrictions, & 🇱🇹 banned the transit of sanctioned goods from the Kaliningrad region
Weekly monitoring by
@kse_ua
@Nataliia_Shapo
@vladvlas
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U.S. Prepares Crackdown on Russian Oil Sanctions Evasion
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. is ‘very likely’ to start enforcing the price cap on Russian oil
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Priorities:
1 Battlefield: 🇷🇺 should not receive western technologies to use in the weapons
2 Energy sanctions
Further enforcement&lowering of the oil price cap, ban 🇷🇺LNG, Rosatom
3 Financial institutions and facilitators: 🇷🇺banks and all stop those assisting to avoid sanctions
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1/3: Had the West imposed a $45/bbl cap on Russian 🇷🇺 oil back in March, Russia's crude oil exports would have taken a $4.5bn hit in Q2 2023 alone. Add to that, a looming loss of $5.5bn in the remaining half of the year.
#EnergySanctions
#OilPrices
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Price cap for 🇷🇺 oil might work if implemented quick and hard. Banks shouldn't allow payments beyond price cap. Violators should be punished. Escrow accounts and insurance ban might be also considered. Need to cut off 🇷🇺revenues without allowing market prices rise.
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We are looking for ideas about new areas for sanctions against russia... maybe arts? or science? or sports?
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The volume of credible allegations of torture and other inhumane acts that are being perpetrated against civilians and prisoners of war by 🇷🇺 appears to be unabating, according to UN. What will it take for 🇷🇺 to be recognised as a state sponsor of terrorism?
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Russia's economy will fully return to the pre-crisis level in 2024, says Nabiullina (governor of Central Bank of russia)
More sanctions must be imposed.
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Should there be a way to buy yourself off the sanction list? – we had an excellent discussion yesterday. What do you think, and why so?
with
@McFaul
@arodnyansky
@OMarkarova
@Mylovanov
@vladvlas
@RichardMNephew
@anders_aslund
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sanctions: reaffirmed
- No international sports events being organised or supported by an IF or NOC in 🇷🇺 or 🇧🇾
- No flag, anthem, colours or any other identifications whatsoever of these countries being displayed
- No 🇷🇺 and 🇧🇾 official should be invited to or accredited
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It is so inspiring to see now the nuclear fuel energy / Rosatom sanctions discussed as a part of the coming sanctions packages!
All after the Rosatom paper back we released in November.
Nothing is impossible when you have a big idea, good arguments, and communication efforts.
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🇬🇧 is setting a great example by imposing an export ban on every piece of equipment 🇷🇺 has been found using on the battlefield in 🇺🇦. We hope to see more countries following this example!
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This is how terrorist attacks look like. Russia must have been recognized as a State Sponsor of Terrorism a long time ago.
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Our sources are pretty much confident there will be an agreement tomorrow on EU visa limitations for russians
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🇷🇺 exports 80% of its oil by sea
Nearly 70% of these exports are provided by tankers from 🇪🇺 🇳🇴 & 🇬🇧
For oil import restrictions to be effective, 🇪🇺 companies must stop helping 🇷🇺 sell the resource elsewhere
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Europe may have paid a low financial price for Russian gas in the past, but that was because it was paying in terms of its security. So the time has come to take care about energy security. And gas price cap might well be an answer.
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October 2023 customs data suggests that almost all seaborne 🇷🇺 crude oil was sold above the price cap, with the average price at $79.2/barrel
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One of recent milestones:
-
#Gatik
Ship Management that’s carrying bulk of 🇷🇺 oil, left high & dry
-Lloyd's Register withdrew safety certification
-American Club withdrew insurance
-Ingosstrakh not giving cover
-St. Kitts & Nevis Int Ship Registry removed flag
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"sanctions have opened another economic front where Russia is suffering far more than was previously thought"
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Kazakhstan introduced ban for [re]exporting of microelectronics to russia. 106 items, many being used for the weapons production. A huge move, big success for all joint efforts.
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By contrast, if the G7 set the cap to leave prices changed at around the current level of the Urals- Brent differential ($20-30/bbl), then it will take time for Russia to feel financing pressure.
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Ok, it is now official: PACE declared Russia a terrorist regime. The resolution was adopted by 99 votes, one abstained.
So much pressure on the U.S. now to designate Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism
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We can confirm: indeed consultations among EU ambassadors on new EU sanctions will start tomorrow. There is a plan to adopt some new measures on July 18th. Sanctions circumvention is in the focus.
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An oil embargo is still not in place, 🇷🇺 earns twice as much as it did a year ago and continues to bomb 🇺🇦 cities.
@nytimes
with the experts of our Group has described how to deprive 🇷🇺 of revenues right now.
@RichardMNephew
@MSnegovaya
@AmbDanFried
what do you suggest?
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We are excited to be hosting a virtual webinar this Thursday, May 4 at 7am PT / 10am ET / 5pm in Kyiv to present Action Plan 2.0, as well as answer questions from the public and journalists.
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Already 33% of the Action Plan on Strengthening Sanctions against 🇷🇺 have been implemented.
More work should be done on energy, financial sanctions, and trade restrictions, etc.
We need more sanctions and coordination between 🇺🇸 🇪🇺 🇬🇧 to
#stoprussia
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Based on our estimations, 🇷🇺 has lost $100 bn in
#oil
revenues as a result of
#sanctions
, in the period from the invasion up to August 2023. It is high time to stop financing 🇷🇺’s war machine by cutting its all
#oil
revenues.
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Cargo turnover of Russian seaports increased by 10.5% in the first half of the year: grain, mineral and chemical fertilizers, coal and coke.
Meanwhile the Ukrainian sea ports are blocked by russian army.
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Once the United States finally designates Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism, 🇷🇺 will be stripped of any immunity under the U.S. Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act –
just do it!🇺🇸
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Russia's seaborne crude exports dropped for 22% in December from the average for the first 11 months of 2022, reports
@WSJ
. And the prices dropped too.
But sanctions don't work...
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🇷🇺 being so active in trying to stop
#sanctions
is the best sign that they are working. Countries should keep up the pressure.
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We should not lose sight of Iran, Belarus, and other counties that help Russia to get around sanctions. Working on that.
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