In 2014, I published a report @bcaresearch titled Apex of Globalisation. I actually wanted to title it "The End of. " but it was too bold. The reasons for the "end" have little to do with this war. It's all about multipolarity.

Now, what could upset the cart here is the Supreme Court case on tariffs. We are in an upside-down world where yields are likely to rise if SCOTUS strikes down tariffs, which is BEARISH for equities. As such, the bulls find themselves in a weird situation of having to cheer on.

The point is that there is no sign that the 30-year is blowing out because of a fiscal crisis. This narrative is overstated. Ultimately, the 10-year yield should be rising if bonds were selling off due to fiscal policy. And yet, following the passage of OBBBA, yields have FALLEN.

Of course the 30-year rallied hard. The median investor thought that they'd be watching their grandkids doing Zoom school from a bunker. That proved wildly incorrect.

Which brings me to the 2020 recession. Folks need to stop referring to it. People lost their goddamn minds! How many of you thought it would produce a deflationary depression? I know who you are. (Mostly tech bros!). YOU know who you are.

Actually, both in 2001 and 2009, long-dated yields kind of went HIGHER. And think about it, this makes sense. Why should long-dated yields go down because of something that is happening over the next 12-18 months? A recession comes and goes.

And what about amidst the dot-com boom? . Again. Nothing.

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But wait a minute. What happened during the GFC? Nothing. Same thing as today.

To prove that this is "weird," we are shown this chart, from 2020. Note how the 30 year yield fell along with the fed funds futures and the target rate. BOOM. There it is. Evidence of an imminent fiscal crisis this time around.

But this chart has become popular on FinTwit. It shows how the 30-year yield is not reacting to the upcoming Fed rate cuts and how this is somehow "weird" and a sign of a fiscal crisis.

But then something strange happened: the GOP in the House REVOLTED against President Trump's campaign promises and the One Big Beautiful Bill (once we combine it with the TAX increase that is the tariffs) came out far less profligate. As a result, I ended my short duration.

Lots of chatter out there about how there is a GLOBAL long-dated bond selloff afoot and how that is weird. (This is a 🧵). I am sympa to that view as I've called President Trump a "Human Steepener" and was SHORT DURATION due to his campaign from September 2024 to January 2025.

The GeoMacro Beta Report Is Out

POV: you locked in for football season

The Alpha Report Is Out

I think about this chart a lot. In terms of "what is next" and what is NOT next.

This is really interesting. In my view, the White House is laser focused on unleashing the massive amount of wealth stored in US housing equity. I fully expect them to find a way to let the floodgates open. Whatever it takes. (Also, no more detox talk!)

One of the great things about working for a 76-year old firm is finding out how many people's lives @bcaresearch has touched in its eight decades! Here is me bumping into the GREAT-nephew of Hamilton Bolton, founder from back in 1949. I had a great time with Andrew in Montreal!

This is actually negative for stocks. I know. crazy. But hear me out: tariffs are the reason that OBBBA was not negative for bonds. If that revenue is gone, OBBBA math is completely different. And it's all about the 10yr for equities right now.

You cannot really overturn a regime with nuclear subs and destroyers. And 4,500 marines is a really scary fighting force for most enemies, but they're not going to show up in Caracas and take over.

The media is talking "regime change" in Venezuela, but if one just takes into account the naval vessels the US has arrayed in the Caribbean Sea, they are not capable of overturning a government in a country of ~30 million. UNLESS, the regime is uber frail.

Caught in the middle of a political battle, @BlackRock reaffirmed its focus is helping millions of Americans save for retirement. They warned that injecting politics from either side risks undermining financial performance.

Great point! . Ultimately, the problem for the Fed is that it will always have to justify its disastrous performance in 2021. Either they got politicized and pressured by the Biden adminsitration. OR. They are just really bad at their job.