Marko Papic
@Geo_papic
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BCA Research. Geomacro strategist. Author of Geopolitical Alpha. Podcast host of "Geopolitical Cousins." Views on Twitter are my own.
Santa Monica, California
Joined March 2022
In 2014, I published a report @bcaresearch titled Apex of Globalisation. I actually wanted to title it "The End of. " but it was too bold. The reasons for the "end" have little to do with this war. It's all about multipolarity.
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This was one of my favorite episodes to record. Big thank you to Cousin @JacobShap for putting up with the framework. @BillSimmons. you should give it a listen. Big homage to your work!.
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All right. OBBBA has passed. The bond market has had plenty of opportunity to read the bill and panic. It is now or never. My view: OBBBA is not the droids you are looking for. The bond market rioted when Trump was elected, forcing policymakers to basically walk back most of.
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Sometimes you just have to thank your Nihilist God (oxymoron alert!) for how lucky you get.
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Vietnam has always been an important bellwether for investors when it comes to tariffs. The agreement is straightforward. 🇻🇳 lowers tariffs to 0% on 🇺🇸, US keeps tariffs at 20%. But MOST IMPORTANT, no mention of China FDI into Vietnam for re-export.
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Fascinating chart, hot off my team's assembly line, on UN voting. Visualizes the "lost opportunity" to lock Russia into the West. We use methodology that comes from academic work (see footnote). And yes, the UN does not matter. But voting patterns are a proxy for alignment.
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I am really looking forward to hosting the BCA Research conference in NY, on October 22! Please join me if you want to talk macro, tech, and geopolitics!.
The unipolar era is over. But the only macro conference that matters remains. RSVP now to The Big Picture!.
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Just some thoughts on the Middle East imbroglio of June. Shot somewhere in the Bay Area wilderness.
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A little Friday afternoon Geopolitical Cousins with Cousin @JacobShap. We do a brief (by our standards) post-mortem of the Iran-Israel "war." .
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I wish that every man and woman finds a partner who texts them the way that Mark texts Donald. 😘🫣☺️.
Just when you thought your jaw couldn't drop any further. Donald Trump releases a private message sent by NATO Sec General Mark Rutte - with a very big claim, and written, it would seem, in the most Trumpian language (NATO has confirmed to BBC it is genuine). What a world.
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No attack against a nuclear program is ever 100% effective. Nuclear programs are a holistic concept that includes human and fixed capital. The @WhiteHouse has a legitimate reason to be angry at this nonsense. They are being held to an impossible standard.
Well this explains why Trump was so crabby this morning — US intel says that we didn’t destroy the key components of Iran’s nuclear program, we didn’t even collapse the underground buildings. The new estimate is that the program has only been set back by a few months. Horrifying.
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There is a hierarchy to how Iran retaliates: . 1. US bases in Iraq. I'd say no US response, ala Jan 2020. 2. US bases in Qatar and Bahrain. Moderate US response. Things settle down eventually. 3. Strait of Hormuz. US goes medieval, Iran becomes a feudal state.
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What an absolute BANGER of a chart by my colleague and friend (and basketball fantasy league co-owner) @ElClutch! . Instead of "Exodus," I wish I had come up with the "GTFO Trade".
If you were to look at only returns during the US session this year, EUR/USD is flat YTD, roughly tracking relative rate differentials. But foreigners have cared little about fundamentals, they just want to GTFO of the dollar.
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Big thank you to my dear friend @ceyhunemredogru and CNBC Turkiye! Love the long-form interview!.
It was great to host my dear friend Marko @Geo_papic on CNBC Turkiye to discuss the Israel - Iran war, as well as its broader implications in the region and on the markets. Do not miss the full interview 👉
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The new GEOCousins has dropped! We delay the Trade Value episode due to Iran-Israel tensions. But this monster had a lot, including a proposal for the Concert of Mar-a-Lago! Big thank you to Cousin @JacobShap as always for putting up with my rants.
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If the US and Israel want regime change, they would both declare VICTORY and move on. Let the people of Iran have a period during which they can sift through the rubble and balance the books. Nobody revolts when they're circling the wagons. I can't believe this is not obvious.
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This is actually a very fair statement. Got to give props when they are due. Well done.
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