Ram Ahluwalia CFA, Lumida
@ramahluwalia
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CEO of @lumidawealth . prev: Founded PeerIQ (exited). ex-Wall St. Non-Consensus Investing, Alts, Digital Assets. Disproving the EMH one day at a time.
New York
Joined October 2008
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1/ How do we explain FTX's $10 Bn in losses? Where did the $2 Bn in venture funds go?
My working hypothesis is that FTX was a fraud even prior to recent events and as far back as 2021.
#SBF
will go down in history as a fraud larger than Bernie Madoff. 🧵
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1/ Why would FTX acquire Voyager and BlockFi if they had no cash and were insolvent?
What were they thinking?
It’s truly Machiavellian. Here’s a thread on my hypothesis…
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1/ Genesis is the only full-service prime broker in crypto. Genesis was a gem in the DCG portfolio.
It plays an critical role in enabling large institutions to access & mange risk.
The $1 Bn question - where does Genesis go from here? A thread on Prime brokers & Genesis
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I found a bank that has $1.5 Tn in mark-to-market losses because it bought Treasuries & MBS.
For the first time in 107 years, this bank has negative net interest margin.
Its losses are poised to exceed its capital base. Can you guess?
The Federal Reserve...
🧵
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The SEC is investigating VCs who invested in FTX. They are assessing whether VCs conducted their stated due diligence process.
VCs are in a catch 22. If they did DD and still invested, then the DD looks insufficient (and possibly negligent).
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Bridgewater CIO:
‘We find that GPT-4 scores at an 80th percentile investment associate.
With AI, technologically you now have millions of them at once.
And if you can [ control errors ] you can do a tremendous amount at a rapid rate.’
Yes, yes, yes.
#OddLots
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1/ NY Attorney General vs. DCG
@BarrySilbert
:
FTX was worse than Madoff.
And, DCG was worse than Enron.
This thread will show how.
And why the NYAG's request will force a sale of Grayscale.
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The SEC is proposing a modification to the Custody Rule that impacts crypto.
Here are the winners and losers:
1. Big Winner: Anchorage - the only national bank that can custody crypto. Anchorage has a monopoly.
2. Cowen: Bank backed Prime Brokerage. The first bank to do…
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1/ DCG published a letter to investors. It clarifies several misconceptions. It also raises new questions around the Promissory Note.
I have pored over this and the Grayscale 10-Q to connect some dots. We'll cover what happened and what we learned.
Let's break it down... 🧵
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SEC policy says that Dogecoin, a worthless meme token, is a commodity.
So Coinbase can list it and Americans can inevitably lose money.
Filecoin, has the promise of passing dividends to investors. So Coinbase can’t list it.
Crypto securities laws are broken. How to fix 👇
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Quote from SEC Chair Arthur Levitt today: ‘Crypto will be part of the American financial scene sooner than later.’
🤞
SEC Chair Arthur Levitt (
@ArthurLevitt
) understood how to balance investor protection and capital formation.
He is a legend: longest serving SEC Chair, Entrepreneur and builder.
I am grateful to count on Arthur as a dear friend and mentor.
We took this picture after
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1/ DCG tokens are selling down hard. GBTC broke below $8 on Fri.
It's been 30-days since Gemini Earn interest was paid. If there is a cure period we're crossing that threshold.
That raises the prospects of a Notice of Default from Gemini.
@MessariCrypto
sorted by 24 hr %
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1/ Curtains are closing on the once iconic DCG, at least as we know it today.
There’s subtlety in
@cameron
’s letter and new risks.
- FTX clawback
- Misrepresentations
- State AG investigations
- Jan 8th deadline
Let’s dig in. 🧵
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1/ The Celsius bankruptcy examiner report is out.
My opinion is that
@Mashinsky
and other executives will go to jail for a long time.
Celsius propped $CEL token while Mashinsky dumped on retail.
Evidence show willful deception to keep the 'flywheel' going
Highlights🧵
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Silvergate, the first crypto bank, faced a bank run that led to its downfall.
Despite facing allegations around AML, it was not these issues that ultimately caused the demise of $SI.
The responsibility for bank supervision lies with the Executive Branch, but this process was…
As the bank of choice for crypto, Silvergate Bank's failure is disappointing, but predictable. I warned of Silvergate's risky, if not illegal, activity—and identified severe due diligence failures. Now, customers must be made whole & regulators should step up against crypto risk.
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Michael Lewis is a great storyteller.
But he delivers narratives rather than true understanding.
FTX was a money losing business.
That led to fraud.
FTX was getting arbed by their own clients.
An exchange can withstand *any* run on the bank because deposits are never…
“They had a great real business. If no one had cast aspersions on the business, if there hadn’t been a run on customers deposits, they’d still be making tones of money”
ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME!!!
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1/ RE: Paxos & BUSD.
The SEC issued a No Action Letter to Pocketful of Quarters - a crypto blockchain gaming token in 2019.
There was no ‘expectation of profit’ - a prong of the Howey Test - since the token value was fixed (like a stablecoin).
How can the SEC can treat a…
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1/ Genesis Ch 11 Finding:
How GBTC went to a 50% discount.
Summary:
- Genesis pledges GBTC to
#GeminiEarn
- Genesis suspends withdrawals.
- Gemini forecloses on GBTC collateral
- Gemini sells GBTC to a private buyer causing spread to widen
Timeline thread...
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I’d like to thank JP Morgan for denying service to Digital Asset clientele.
It’s been great for business.
If you a JP Morgan Private Wealth client, we at
@LumidaWealth
are happy to help you find a new home.
Here’s our stack:
TradFi Custody: Charles Schwab. We never custody.…
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9/ Enron CEO went to jail for lesser infractions than this. Theranos was a fraud from misrepresentation. SBF was at the level of Bernie Madoff - trying to keep the shell game going before creditors called in their loans.
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1/ There are a lot of smart VCs concluding the demise of Luna set in motion contagion.
No.
The collapse of the GBTC premium was the main culprit.
It created, for a time, the perception of a perpetual motion machine disguised as a ‘carry trade’…
🧵
#bitcoin
pump + Genesis
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Serious Question: What Will Be the Legacy of SEC Chair Gensler?
We are only now grasping the consequences.
1) **Death of Chevron Doctrine**: Under Chair Gensler's watch, the SEC's waning court victories have diluted the deference usually afforded to the agency's…
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3/ FTX, in a truly Lex Luthor way, sought to buy Voyager to prevent this. The new parent assumes the subsidiary liability
Also, FTX could acquire with their inflated but actually worthless $32 Bn equity. They positioned as a ‘white knight’ when in fact they were the delinquents
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SBF is going away for a long, long time.
SBF's 'word salad' defense - hiding behind complexity - won't stand up to scrutiny.
It's a straightforward fraud case.
Did he take the money? (Yes.)
Did he lie about it? (Yes.)
Did he know he was lying about it? (Yes.)
Done.
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1/ The Future is Tokenized Culture
Franklin Templeton’s Jenny Johnson nails it at CNBC ‘Delivering Alpha’.
- Tokenization = Securitization on Steroids
- Tokenization of Cultural IP via NFT Royalty Streams.
Rhianna is creating modern era ‘Bowie Bonds’ for fans that can…
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How would the world look like in Balaji’s world where bitcoin hits $1 MM in just 90 days?
Brace yourself for a dystopian simulation of hyperinflation, bank runs, asset seizures, and regional wars.
1. The inflation rate of 3,700% would exceed Zimbabwe.
2. The Federal Reserve…
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1/ An extraordinary couple of days.
The first digital bank runs of the internet era:
Signature, Silvergate, and SVB are gone.
FDIC makes unsecured depositors 100% whole.
Let's dig in:
- The regulator joint statement
- Need more Fiat Ramps
- JP Morgan & First Republic
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Non-Consensus View:
The visit of China’s premier js a symbolic bending of the knee.
China is capitulating.
@balajis
is not reading this correctly
Why? China is hurting.
- China’s currency is under pressure as capital leaves at the fastest rate in 7 years
- FDI is down…
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25/ What's new here?
- FTX & Alameda were mutually indispensable. Incompetency evolved to fraud & market manipulation
- The fraud likely started earlier - as far back as 2021
- FTX 'exported' VC & customer funds to skillful counterparties via trading
Please give a ❤️& RT 🙏
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1/
Two new characters have entered the Shakespearean drama that is DCG.
Fir Tree and Valkyrie arrive on the scene with blades unsheathed.
We also have a new puzzle on Fir Tree's true motivations...
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6/ Ordinarily, a biz funds via CFO (cash from operations), CFI (cash from investment proceeds), or CFF (cash from financings).
This is a new type of creative financing. Let’s call it ‘CFFF’ (cash from fraud and fleecing)
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The Courts have ruled 3-0 against the SEC Chair.
We’re going to do a 4-0 and possibly have a Supreme Court that is already skeptical of executive branch overreach weigh in on ambiguous law.
All this case law is piling up and thwarting Chair Gensler’s objectives.
JUST IN: Kraken crypto exchange says they will "vigorously defend" themselves against the SEC.
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1/ Larry Fink just spoke with
@CGasparino
on Fox Business.
Topics:
- Bitcoin ETF
- Crypto & Disintermediation
- Inflation and Rate outlook
- Banks & CRE
All of our favorite topics :)
Here's a breakdown & rapid reactions🧵
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2/ a) FTX was acquiring their creditors to buy time and slow down a margin call. Recall, it was known that FTX had hundreds of millions in loans outstanding to Voyager.
When you can’t pay off your debt, the debtors wipe out your equity and own your company.
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1/ Letter from
@cameron
to
@BarrySilbert
.
"After six weeks, your behavior is not only completely unacceptable, it is unconscionable".
It's a a game of chicken now.
Any 3 Earn creditors can coordinate on an Involuntary Petition for Ch 11.
Rapid analysis thread...🧵
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12/ Thank you for the likes and retweets.
Much love and many 🙏.
Update: Info is coming to light that FTX in the acquisition and bankruptcy process sought to nullify the creditor claim Voyager had over FTX.
That supports the hypothesis.
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Let Your Kids Fail
SBF is fully accountable for his actions.
SBF is also a product of a generation of parents that have raised kids by removing any obstacle to success from their path.
SBF never experienced adversity in life.
Take video games today.
They don’t have…
@AutismCapital
SBF has the ‘entitlement’ and ‘all bad feelings are bad’ defense 🤔
Jurors know better
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@chamath
Price cuts are bearish.
Less revenue, earnings and margin and lower Return on Invested Capital.
Apple is raising prices on the next iPhone. That’s sign of a moat, dominant position, and consumer staple / must habe
Buffett quality businesses raise prices…
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26/ Parting thought…FTX’s flawed execution model only works with net new customer funds or new VC money.
That is the definition of a Ponzi scheme.
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11/ There is still another big question that is open.
Exactly what happened to the $2 Bn in equity raised?
(Superbowl ads and penthouse parties aren’t that expensive).
I will post a thread on this in the coming days.
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8/ If this hypothesis is true, this would mean the fraud perpetuated by FTX is truly epic.
This is not merely a ‘lie’ , or lack of disclosure of conflicts, gross negligence, or a breach of client duty, or self-dealing — any of which are damning in their own right.
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1/ Chair Gensler is the Anakin Skywalker for the crypto. He was the Chosen One.
Ben Kenobi during the light saber duel: 'He taught MIT Blockchain! He wrote Op-Eds in Coindesk...Algorand...'
Then the turn to the Dark Side. Here's an explainer on what happened.
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1/ EDX Markets, a non-custodial exchange, went live today.
That sounds like a contradiction right?
Here's background on EDX and initial thoughts.
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4/ FTX would also prevent the forced selling of tokens in a bankruptcy process (SOL, FTT, etc) in a world where the two targets go thru bankruptcy. The forced selling would have imploded the Alameda balance sheet sooner.
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1/ Coinbase Q3 Earnings
YTD Gain: 148%. After-Hours: Down ~4%+
ngl folks, I've covered Coinbase for a while. This was not a pretty quarter.
I lay out exactly how $COIN can unlock value and become the next Square
The bull case is the future.
Let's dig in 🧵
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Amazon, Apple, and Berkshire Hathaway are sitting on a cash warchest.
The banking system is under pressure from the internet - digital bank runs & social media.
Big tech firms, private equity, and many FinTech startups, would love to own, re-capitalize, and modernize banking.…
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1/ What a contrast:
SEC Chair Jay Clayton: "I am remarkably impressed by true stablecoins. Wouldn't a stablecoin be a better way to [ move money]? "
SEC Chair Gensler: "We already have digital currency - it's called the US dollar."
#BloombergInvest
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10/ Should get an investigative journalist on this. How to test?
Post the term sheet for BlockFi and Voyager acquisition.
Also, how much was Alameda borrowing from BlockFi.
@lawmaster
@fintechfrank
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1/ Coinbase Q1'23 earnings breakdown.
Revenue beat 18%, stock up 7% in after-market.
Coinbase shifts message from Web3/SAAS to 'time to update the system'
Here's what you need to know.
🧵
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BREAKING:
From Dubai AIM summit:
Mohammed El-Erian at Dubai Aim summit said likes a barbell portfolio of cash and bitcoin.
Also like "other alternative assets like private credit and litigation finance"
El-Erian is the former CIO of PIMCO, Harvard Management Company, and is…
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Also happy 5 months bday to our baby girl.
Fun Facts:
1. Born on the day of ETH merge
2. Initials RSA (a popular encryption protocol)
3. Dad sleeps like a baby (wakes up kicking and screaming every 3 hours 😂)
Synchronicity
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10 Reasons I am Bullish on Digital Assets.
1) Non-Consensus: Best performing asset class YTD, and yet sentiment is ‘bear market’
2) The SEC & DOJ Binance actions are telegraphed and priced in. Negatives are priced in.
3) BlackRock is laying out the case for tokenization -…
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25/Crypto has greatly benefitted from Genesis as an institution. That can't be understated, and my hats off to the Genesis management team for pioneering. Genesis can be a gem in the right hands.
What do you think? What happens if no parties come to the rescue? Please give a RT!
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1/ Genesis notes their goal is to ‘resolve the current situation consensually’ via ‘constructive conversations with creditors.’
This is a high-stakes gambit and looks like a lose lose situation.
Plot twist: Gemini Earn users could get a Genesis equity airdrop...
🧵
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Why is this different than 2008?
In 2008, banks were undercapitalized. Balance sheets were clogged with toxic assets. The remedy was bank recapitalization and a suspension of mark-to-market accounting.
This time the remedy is an easy fix. It costs no money.
The FDIC can…
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The SEC has a string of decisive losses where judges are ruling 3-0.
The SEC’s settlements don’t create precedent.
One has to imagine the SEC Chair is in a state of shellshock.
You can see it in the tone and body language in public interviews.
There are :
- questions…
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The precision in President Xi Jinping’s transcript is extraordinary.
If I didn’t know any better, it would read like a deep fake.
Excerpts:
(1) ‘China will never pursue hegemony or expansion and never impose its will on others.’
> Taiwan is safe.
(2) ‘China does not seek…
There you have it: China has capitulated.
These Heads of State visits don’t happen wily nilly. They are accompanied by a policy package.
These are all prepared and then rolled out in the aftermath as a ‘win’
One should still assume IP theft will continue…
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1/ Crypto market liquidity has dried up significantly.
These are the consequences of a lack of a crypto bank settlement layer (SI & Signature).
Market makers need a way to settle instantly with counterparties (eg, exchanges, HFs, other MMs).
🧵
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@NAChristakis
Admissions DEI took priority over academic scholarship, meritocracy, and learning for learning’s sake
Kids show up Freshman year and think they know world history from TikTok
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@balajis
I have visited several of these cities. And the infra and airports are great.
And I thoroughly enjoyed spending time in Hong Kong, Shanghai and other cities.
However, the images depict the ‘exemplars of the most exemplary’ cities.
It’s a cherrypicked crop of the top 1% of…
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1/ Time for the $1.1 Bn loan thread...
If you are a DCG creditor, you should ask Qs in this thread:
"The $1.1 Bn DCG borrowed from Genesis was used to purchase the defaulted 3AC note in a non-cash transaction."
Seller financing.
The only explanation that fits the facts.
🧵
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5/ b) FTX was expanding the asset side of the balance sheet. Note: FTX was coercing their portcos to custody their clients funds at FTX Global. This would enable FTX to violate the segregation of customer funds and use client assets as a source of funding
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Apple's App Store generates $1.1 Tn in billings on a global basis.
The App Store charges a 30% 'take rate', like a gatekeeper, to intermediate access to consumers.
Ethereum, in one sense, is a decentralized app store. There's no rent-seeking, no tollgate, no barrier to entry.
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Non-Consensus:
Why is it so fashionable to predict the decline of the US?
Hard disagree with
@Noahpinion
and
@balajis
Let’s break it down by category.
1) Technology leadership: US dominates
2) Military: US dominates
3) Banking: US has 4 of the Top 10 banks.
China has 4…
Here's a little post-mortem I wrote on Pax Americana.
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13/ This article from
@JeffKauflin
reports the FTX & Alameda lost $3.7 Bn *before* 2022. [!!]
Before Luna. before 3AC. Before credit contagion.
That's nearly 2x capital as compared to dollars raised.
They may have been insolvent already.
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In Switzerland, the 'rule of bank' trumps the 'rule of law’.
The government agreed to change the law to fast-track UBS’s acquisition of Credit Suisse and bypass shareholder consent.
Shareholders will be wiped out.
Were the Swiss banks ever truly private then?
🤔
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A former SEC Chairman once said ‘No honest man need fear the SEC.’
How absurd is it that Coinbase has to *sue* its regulator for clarity?
And the SEC chooses to fight in court
Rather than update Interpretive Guidance that makes no mention of DeFi, staking, or stablecoins?
writing an op-ed in the WSJ last fall laying out a framework for responsible crypto regulation. I read it again today, and it still makes sense.
We need interpretive guidance (not rule by enforcement), an industry SRO, and Congressional action.
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8/ The HFT game rewards whomever has the lowest latency and fastest data.
FTX's competitors invest in hardware: co-located servers, ultra-fast flexible gate programming arrays (FPGAs), and data. They compile in C.
FTX spent millions on AWS. They code in Python. Too slow...
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1/ DCG shared financials today. This sheds new light on the Genesis Ch 11 plan and the $GBTC discount.
It is in DCG's strong interest that creditors approve the Joint Plan.
DCG had ~$575 MM due in May, but only has $262 MM in cash as of end of 2022 - a liquidity crunch...
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There is an idea on CT that it’s ok to let CeFi exchanges fail. Just self-custody.
Exchanges provide price discovery, liquidity, and a fiat ramp. They solve the problem of the ‘coincidence of wants’.
The alternative is a barter market: no liquidity let alone mass adoption.
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9/ Side note: Great HFT firms will invest up to billions in proprietary high-speed data links such as microwave technology.
The mere curvature of a fiber optic cable creates a disadvantage for an HFT firm. The bending of the speed of light is unacceptable.
Speed is everything.
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If you are a Gemini Earn client you should have a Loan Agreement.
If you don’t have one, ask Gemini for it. As a creditor, you should look for information rights, priority of claim, cure provisions, and default notice.
You have more power than you think. DM me a copy.
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The SEC has not updated its interpretive guidance since 2019 - before the rise of staking, DeFi, and CeFi yield like Gemini Earn.
Interpretive Guidance is when a regulator publishes its interpretation of how securities laws apply under various scenarios.
Good actors get…
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Why isn’t Ethereum Rallying?
It is…just not where you think it is.
Take a look at the ETHE discount.
It’s steadily closing. A 4% gain today.
There’s a concept in futures markets called the ‘cheapest to deliver’ contract.
ETHE is the cheapest to deliver.
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What we learned from the Genesis complaint against DCG:
- DCG was borrowing Bitcoin from its subsidiary at a 3.8% interest rate.
- The Late fee penalty rate of interest is 5%
- Meanwhile, JPM, the safest and most over-capitalized bank in the world, borrows at a 6% rate for…
So… Genesis is suing its parent DCG for $600 MM+ while at the same time it says it has an agreement in principle.
My guess is that someone at Genesis realized they have a fiduciary obligation to their creditors amidst the law enforcement investigations.
Genesis must turn…
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The Widowmaker trade - which laid waste to 3AC, Genesis, BlockFi - is no more
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Summary:
- The Fed is experiencing losses for the first time since 1915.
- Negative losses will exceed its capital base by 2 to 3x.
- It doesn't matter for the Fed, but the consequences are inflationary
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1/ DCG owes ~$575 MM to Genesis in May. (DCG is short bitcoin via one of the 3 loans so amount owed is now higher)
There is now not enough time to get a new TS, definitive docs, and forebearance in place. This creates a scenario for DCG default risk. 🧵
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What's the biggest risk to the banking system. Crypto? Hardly.
It's when a regional bank offers a money market fund to its deposit customers.
Digital banking makes it easier for a customer to move balances from the deposit account to money market accounts. This causes a bank…
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1/ I went thru the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF S-1 filing.
There are novel elements to the BlackRock application.
This covers the background and what the main open questions are to asses likelihood of approval.
🧵
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The US has a choice to make:
Enable regulated on-ramps and custody from high integrity leaders like
@CaitlinLong_
, or push activity to unlicensed overseas players with zero oversight…
and get another FTX.
1/ IT'S TIME FOR ME TO REVEAL A FEW THINGS. I've just published a post "Shame On Washington, DC For Shooting A Messenger Who Warned Of
#Crypto
Debacle." Link to post is here:
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The Fed is in a checkmate position.
Choice 1) Raise rates and stop inflation…but widen the yield pickup of money market funds over deposits. More ‘carry trades’ come undone.
The US. banking system *is* a carry trade - the largest. All banks ‘borrow short, and lend long’ and…
Why the Fed is going to need to cut rates. A thread-
The SIVB crisis marks a phase change in the US financial system that renders the current highly inverted yield curve intolerable. Merely providing liquidity won't help banks much when the problem is upside down balance sheets.
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@molly0xFFF
I am waiting for the simulation to end at any moment now
Can’t make this up
The reality script writers are on strike
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Great dinner with Securitize and KKR team!
KKR partnered with Securitize to issue LP interests on-chain.
I spent time with Jamie (President, Securitize) to unpack the transaction.
Benefits:
- LP: creates liquidity for private equity interests.
- KKR: broaden access to…
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1/ Consensus 2023 was a blast.
I asked everyone I spoke with 'What did you learn? What is you non-consensus view?'
Superthread covering innovation, regulatory, new product.
The future of Digital Assets is bright.
🧵
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Mike Novogratz (
@novogratz
) on a Bitcoin ETF:
> We are going to get good news in Oct
> Bitcoin is an international asset
> This will be a gamechanger (due to the sales forces of the ETF issuers)
@twobitidiot
#mainnet2023
@MessariCrypto
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Gemini Earn:
I suggest waiting before voting.
1) Very odd that Gemini itself has no view or recommendation on the Plan.
> Wait for them to weigh in at a minimum
2) Genesis linking recovery to Petition date and pegging recovery at 61 to 100% is also absurd.
> We don’t know…
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1/ After Genesis there was Exodus.
We are entering the next phase of the drama - chapter 11.
@cameron
is waging a maximum pressure campaign threatening lawsuits against
@BarrySilbert
to get a ‘fair deal’ submitted to the court
🧵
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1/ Gemini-DCG-Genesis Joint Plan:
There is a lot to like here. Multiple ways for creditors to improve recovery:
- share in the ups from DCG IPO before Feb 2025 (plot Twist)
- path to equity in DCG (and potential for 2 board seats)
- participation in 3AC recoveries
- GBTC exposure
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Barry's resignation was
@Sonnenshein
's X-Mas gift.
What to make of
@bsilbert
resigning from Grayscale?
Grayscale has had 9 meetings with the SEC per the table below (h/t
@JSeyff
)
Today, there are only allegations against DCG which have not been resolved in a court of law.…
BREAKING: Barry Silbert resigns from the Grayscale Board of Directors 👀😮
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6/ FTX & Alameda had a problem on both sides of its balance sheet.
On the liability side, they had loans they needed to pay back. On the asset side, their retained earnings were wiped out from losses on running a negative NPV biz.
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A Beautiful Ending to the DCG - Genesis Saga (First Season)
We did it :)
Creditors will be made effectively whole (97% recovery) with additional remedies on the way.
The upside? Gemini Earn & Creditors will receive in-kind distributions — they were forced long, by hook or…
Earn Update: Today, we are pleased to announce that we have finally reached a settlement in principle with Genesis and other creditors in the Genesis Bankruptcy that will, if approved by the Bankruptcy Court, result in all Earn users receiving 100% of their digital assets back in…
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The Founder/CEO of Blackrock, Larry Fink, files a Bitcoin ETF app at the start of a Presidential race.
Larry Fink is positioning for Treasury Sec’y.
He is drawing a contrast to Democrat crypto antagonists: Chair Gensler and Sec’y Yellen.
At the same time, Presidential…
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The White House report shows crypto has a storytelling problem.
Crypto is viewed as a speculative, unregulated casino that does not deliver on benefits to the public.
The promise of crypto is significant.
The crypto sector needs to link crypto to direct public and private…
The Fed is in a checkmate position.
Choice 1) Raise rates and stop inflation…but widen the yield pickup of money market funds over deposits. More ‘carry trades’ come undone.
The US. banking system *is* a carry trade - the largest. All banks ‘borrow short, and lend long’ and…
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1/ There are many awful takes on the China, Russia, Saudi idea to advance the Yuan as a global currency.
One major structural reason is China is a major exporter, not an importer.
When the US is importing goods & services, it is exporting dollar-denominated stocks and bonds…
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17/ FTX creates an illegal backdoor - a secret exemption Alameda has to FTX's standard margin and liquidation rules. (This is called 'Self Dealing' in Securities law parlance.)
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1/ What happens to Gemini Earn clients?
I believe there is a credible path to full recovery.
However, Earn clients may face a choice: accept immediate liquidity in the near-term in exchange for a discount, or wait a long-time for full recovery.
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WSJ Scoop on FTX:
> The LedgerX team, acquired by FTX, spotted FTX’s special treatment of Alameda via Backdoor
> Whistleblower was fired
> FTX later offers $5 MM to whistleblower not to say anything.
Excerpt:
Prosecutors say Bankman-Fried stole funds from FTX customers, in…
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4/ FTX is a gift for Alameda. FTX is gathering and attracting tons of uninformed retail order flow for Alameda to monetize by trading against. Similar to PFOF
Alameda is a gift for FTX. Alameda offers valuable liquidity to customers. Otherwise, the exchange would have no volume.
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1/ Does Chat GPT prefer fiat or decentralized crypto?
The results may surprise you.
I asked Chat GPT to construct 3 personas and debate itself in a 30-round rebuttal format.
One persona advocated for fiat. The second advocated for crypto.
The third persona is the…
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