Macartan Humphreys
@maqartan
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Last Seen Profiles
Pinned Tweet
@alan_jacobs1
and I are delighted to announce the publication of our new book "Integrated Inferences"
See here: for links to:
* The book plus open access version (thanks Cambridge!)
* Accompanying R package on CRAN: CausalQueries
* Guide to the package
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Sharing a statement (EN/DE) signed with some wonderful fellow social scientists in or from Germany
We criticize Germany's stance on the Israel / Gaza conflict as being out of line with its own values 1/n
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pro tip: It's a great idea to discuss the ethics of your experiments *in your paper*. You can show you have thought about the issue, clarify reasoning, and give ethically relevant information about your study!
Let's make it a norm!
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I wrote up some reflections on gender discrimination in political science and the problem of poor allies.
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🎺Our book is out!
So happy but also very aware that the whole "design-declaration, design-diagnosis" business can seem impenetrable
So: a🧵about how to navigate the *design library* to get quickly to a vast range of designs
@aecoppock
@graemedblair
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Dear
@Mike_Pence
: I expect you're reflecting a lot on the 25th these days. Here's a thought for you. There’s a theory in political science that the best way for two groups to keep threatened institutions strong is for transgressors to be punished by *their own* side
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Headed in to teach my last class
@Columbia_PolSci
.
So so sad to leave after 20 great years. So grateful for the incredible family here.
Looking forward to next stages at
@WZB_Berlin
and working more with wonderful groups
@HumboldtUni
and
@tcdeconomics
@TCDPoliticalSci
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*Please share widely*
Come work with us!
We have 2 post docs and 1 predoc opening
@WZB_Berlin
Institutions & pol
#inequality
group. Start Sept '23.
Fun group, great city, hard topics.
@CODESRIA
@AERCAFRICA
@EGAPTweets
@JPAL
@poverty_action
@cblatts
@DinaPomeranz
@europsa
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🚨Warning: p values post!
Last week I was teaching how p values are distribtd uniform under the null and the same day
@rlmcelreath
posted about how they are not, giving a compelling counterexample
I took a deepish dive into his example; reslts here:
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so wonderful for economics but it's also hard to overstate the influence these three have had on other disciplines, poli sci, soc, health. Opening new ways to think about our work, leading with extraordinary creativity & integrity.
BREAKING NEWS:
The 2019 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel has been awarded to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer “for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty.”
#NobelPrize
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so many years in the making, now out and ungated
paper with
@vanderwindt
& raul sanchez de la sierra on the (null) effects of community driven development on social cohesion in DRC
*Milestones*:
2006: began working on design w IRC. Italy wins World Cup
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Some good news in worrying times: In a move against academic freedom, the far right AFD party tried to force
@WZB_Berlin
to censor this research paper
WZB fought back and just won:
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I had a go at writing up layperson answers to these kinds of questions; at least ones that I routinely get. They're here:
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Please share widely!:
We have a 2 year opening for a full time pre-doc fellow at our institutions & political inequality group
@WZB_Berlin
Great group and city; details:
Deadline July 16
@alex_scacco
@LaserGabi
@AERCAFRICA
@ASE_cotonou
@EGAPTweets
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🎉🏅huge congrats to Dr
@tara_slough
on a fabulous dissertation on politicians and bureaucrats. stunning work defended with distinction.
more on her work:
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Please share: Come work with me at
@WZB_Berlin
2 year position
Ideal if you want to develop research design and analysis skills to embark on a PhD. Need strong stats skills, interest in development, political inequality, migration, lots of energy!
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There are now close to 200 social scientists signing this statement criticizing 🇩🇪's stance on the Israel / Gaza conflict.
We plan to share with 🇩🇪 gov later today. If you are a social scientist in or from DE and want to add your name, please reach out
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Please share: two new research assistant positions in our unit
@WZB_Berlin
; ideal for students in data science/stats in the Berlin area looking for hands on research experience
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🍾🎗️🚲 Huge congrats to Dr Ana Garcia Hernandez on a fabulous defense and powerful dissertation on development economics and gender. Read her work here
@GarciaHdezAna
@alexcoutts
@WZB_Berlin
@novafrica
@cbatista_econ
@kateorkin
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Anna Wilke and I have a *draft* of a handbook chapter on:
"Field experiments, theory, and external validity"
It's a fascinating and fast growing area. As we revise, we would warmly welcome pointers to innovations we have missed!
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I appreciate your work here and how hard this is, but I think this is not the right response.
It fails to support labor and at the same time threatens the legitimacy and cohesion of our association.
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Please share widely! new post doc position in Berlin. Come work with me and the institutions and political inequality group at
@WZB_Berlin
Details here:
Note fairly short deadline; we start reviewing on 17th Dec!
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Please share: Come join us at
@WZB_Berlin
Great 2 year pre doc position with
Apply here:
@JulioSolis
@sampskc
@lilymiru
@clara_bmc
@alex_scacco
@cmbosancianu
@nmcmurry
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Please share: post doc opportunities
@WZB_Berlin
ASK fellowships for "ideas on economic reform and government reform in a global perspective." 12 months @ € 2,400. Deadline 15 Feb.
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Huge congrats Dr
@salif_ja
on a great defense of a fabulous thesis on the politics of emigration. What a privilege to get to work with you.
@kimulikasara
@nikhargaikwad
@Columbia_PolSci
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A huge thanks to
@PrincetonUPress
for letting us make a version of the book free online. We know this is a risky experiment for PUP in unfinanced open access. If you like the book and have the budget, buy it to support this model! Either way enjoy it! 🙏
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v pleased to share a guide to the α of our
#rstats
packge for
#Causalinference
#MixedMethods
(w
@alan_jacobs1
)
It took us *ages* to get our heads around the DAG framework. But we think it paid off & lets us think more clearly about lots of causal Qs
1/n
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Updates on our statement on the 🇩🇪 stance on Israel-Gaza
Delighted that 240+ social scientists reached out to sign. Many more voicing concern publicly than we would have imagined 🙏
Last week we sent to the chancellor & key ministers
info + coverage at
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Fun teaching a hands-on crash course in research design at
@EUI_EU
today
All slides and code here:
Borrow from my declaredesign-based causal inference and experimental design course
All slides and code:
@mgoldenProf
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Please share widely!: looking for a
#causal
inference post doc to work with me at
@WZB_Berlin
starting asap until end Sept 2020. dags, bayes, structural estimation, social science applications; open across disciplines
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🎉🎉 Huge congrats to Dr
@abhitbhandari
on a fabulous remote defense of a great dissertation on inequalities in property rights enforcement. Lots more here Bravo!!
@cblatts
@Columbia
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Please share! Come work with us!
3 year post doc
@WZB_Berlin
: digitalization, politics, inequality, information technology, control, exploitation. protest....
Deadline: 1 March
@nmcmurry
@cmbosancianu
🚨 Amazing postdoc alert! 🚨 The IPI group at
@WZB_Berlin
is hiring. Apply 👇 and share widely!
#poliscijobmarket
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Please share: post doc opportunity!
Come work with me
@WZB_Berlin
on meta-analysis of strategies for assessing hidden popltns:
Deadline 25 Aug
Joint w & 7 great teams usng innov strategies to est human trafficking in 6 countries
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Things getting weird in Germany as prominent economists promote an interview with right wing activist Murray in which he:
1. Avoids the main q put to him: will Israel's policy increase radicalizatn
2. Challenges the idea there's a peaceful populatn in Gaza distinct from Hamas
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One of the many terrible things about this letter is that it perpetuates the idea that if someone is a great advisor that they could not also have engaged in abuse. We know that's not true.
Lots of big name professors at Harvard signed a letter to defend the rights of professors to engage in sexual harassment under the guise of advising. It’s disgusting watching this play out in real time.
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A question came up today about calculating power for interactions in a factorial design
Here's how to do it using (and a reminder of how weak power can be for interactions)
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Please share widely!
@jrpjrpjrp
and I are hoping for a serious discussion at apsa on how men can be better allies *in practice*. Help us get ideas and proposals on the agenda, help identify people who should be there. Ideas from women from other disciplines welcome.
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Come work with us! We are hiring 4 student assistants.
Work with me,
@nmcmurry
,
@cmbosancianu
@syunyaev
at
@WZB_Berlin
Amazing for anyone seeking to develop research skills & get deeply involved with live projects
NB *You have to be enrolled in a German university*
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a link to a dashboard tracking some economic and social responses to COVID-19 in Sierra Leone
based on phone survey from large rural sample;
updating nearly daily; aggregate data downloadable
*still in development*; suggestions welcome
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It’s called “in-group policing.” In-group policing can be better targeted, can prevent escalation of conflict between the two sides, and can make clear that core standards really are shared by both sides. Relying on out-group policing can produce escalation and more polarization.
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My discussion on how to think through worries 🤔 you might have when you see an RCT is now housed at
@EGAPTweets
Thanks
@jakewbowers
@MattLMattL
for the many public goods!
Still more Q&As to add but nice this has a home.
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There is an incredible group on the market from
@Columbia
political science this year
Here's a thread on awesome students I worked most closely with:
Bhandari |
@jasperjcooper
|
@_alfang
| Lindsay | Sharma |
@tara_slough
See other excellent scholars here
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Delighted we are launching today. It's just been a blast working w/
@graemedblair
@jasperjcooper
&
@aecoppock
on this. It's also been really hard.
#DeclareDesign
has made us rethink everything we knew about research design.
A recap on goodies
1/n
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Please share! 2019 development economics meeting of the German economics association will be in Berlin next June. It's a really great and fast growing meeting. Keynotes Erica Field and
@deankarlan
Applications by Feb 15.
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as a former Chevening scholar, I'm saddened by the reports that Dr Al Reyyes was killed by Israeli bombing, along with so many in his family.
Like others I am so disappointed by the silences in
@CheveningFCDO
's announcement
We are devastated to learn about the death of Chevening Alumnus Dr Maisara Al Rayyes and members of his family. We send our deepest condolences to his surviving family. Our thoughts, and the thoughts of the Chevening Alumni community are with you.
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Please share!: 5 year post doc in Berlin setting up and running a junior research group focused on cross national measurement of contestations of liberal values
@WZB_Berlin
@socFUB
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We believe Germany can do better, should defend a culture of vigorous debate, champion international human rights law, & coordinate with international partners not just on relieving harm but on preventing harm, protecting dignity and creating conditions for sustainable peace
7/n
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This has all taken place in an environment in Germany with markedly weakened public deliberation, in which voices critical of Israel have been marginalized.
6/n
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Please share:
@WZB_Berlin
we are seeking two student assistants to work on a range of projects related to political inequalities and between group conflicts:
* Must have student status and be in Berlin!
@alex_scacco
@LaserGabi
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6/6 men giving papers; 3/3 men giving keynotes on *Politicized Struggles
for Recognition* Irony probably not intended.
@kieluni
you can do better!
Suggestions?
@womenalsoknow
@rebeccajwolfe
@betsylevyp
@alex_scacco
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1. morally and materially supporting the policies of an extremist government that has likely committed war crimes and used hunger as a weapon of war
3/n
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Disappointed by
@Columbia
's decision to refuse discussions w grad student union. I've yet to see a good argument why relations w studnts will worsen if they organize. Just seems wrong to insist on a special relationship when the other half of the relationship sees it differently.
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Please share: At
@WZB_Berlin
we will host another session of Berlin virtual WGAPE: working gp on African political economy in Decembr
Always a great discussion
Open call:
@alex_scacco
@JulioSolis
@GarciaHdezAna
@cmbosancianu
@EGAPTweets
@DENeB_Berlin
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While in no way minimizing the horror of the Hamas attacks and the need to support security in Israel, we highlight:
A strategy of unconditional support to the government of the day in Israel has meant:
2/n
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So refreshing to hear
@PresidentIRL
Michael D Higgins speaking today at
@Columbia
with moral clarity on the right to form a union and the need for universities to engage in open dialogue.
@Columbia
this is the wrong fight.
#CUonStrike
@GWCUAW
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Really pleased. Thanks to the many people in E Congo that contributed to this. The amazing thing was the desire to get the word out (ctd...)
Proud to have won Journal of Conflict Resolution's 2016 best article with
@maqartan
for .
#JCR
#DRC
@NYUADResearch
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2. supporting strategies that plausibly weaken international institutions that Germany has historically sought to foster
4/n
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Just out
#APSR
, one of the most compelling contact experiments ever implemented in a divided society. Social contact changes behavior but expressed attitudes are unmoved. congrats
@alex_scacco
@ShanaS_Warren
@WZB_Berlin
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3. supporting a strategy that is not likely to be successful even in narrow terms of enhancing security and is out of line with Germany's stated goals for the region
5/n
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Happy to share a new working paper with Philip Dawid and Monica Musio on when you can use information on causal processes to make claims about "causes of effects"
(is Y due to X? / process tracing / causal attribution)
Highlights:
1/n
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Please share: MoPED call for papers 🛵
We host a workshop on the political economy of development in Berlin each summer
Great group, good papers, no presentations, intense and constructive discussions: details here
apply by 11 March
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We've a 99.99% prior a treatment doesn't work
3 trials are run, each with a 1% false pos & 1% false neg rate
1 has a pos result (it works! p = 0.01)
2 have neg results (it's a dud!)
For some reason (!) editr can only publsh 1 study
Which should it be?
The idea that publication decisions should be based only on design and not on findings is not sensible. Most things in the world don't work. Given this prior, papers that demonstrate effectiveness are all else equal much more informative.
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Sharing here some notes
on the confusing but important distinction between "causes of effects" and "effects of causes."
Some implications here for:
1/2
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This is a really excellent thread ⬇️
But it’s hard to know what to be most frustrated by:
1. The NYT sanctimoniously spreading misinformation on an important topic because they just cannot evaluate the research.
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Please share!: Three one-year post doc fellowships in Berlin:
* civil society & governance
* multi-level democracies
* preconditions of good governance in state and society
Apply by 1 Feb
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@alan_jacobs1
and I have our book on casual models for qual & mixed methods research coming out next month 🎺
Tomorrow we've an "authors meets critics" session at virtual apsa at 4 PST. W/
@IRgetsreal
@n_ichino
Erin Hartman
@kfscheve
Join if you can
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Just submitted my first signed review; ending with:
Signed review: I am happy to sign this review and invite the author to reach out if I can clarify any of these points. If the editor does not want to allow this then please remove this and the next line.
Macartan Humphreys
1/n
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2019: published. sigh.
So glad we got the policy messages out before waiting on academic publishing.
We have very very many debts:
Replication:
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Please share!: Delighted that Columbia will be hiring this year in comparative politics (tenure track AP). Starting to look at files on 1 October. More details here:
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🚨🎓reminder we have openings for two postdocs and a predoc at our
#institutions
and political
#inequality
group
@WZB_Berlin
Deadline next week!
Please share!
@alex_scacco
@syunyaev
@LaserGabi
@nmcmurry
@cmbosancianu
*Please share widely*
Come work with us!
We have 2 post docs and 1 predoc opening
@WZB_Berlin
Institutions & pol
#inequality
group. Start Sept '23.
Fun group, great city, hard topics.
@CODESRIA
@AERCAFRICA
@EGAPTweets
@JPAL
@poverty_action
@cblatts
@DinaPomeranz
@europsa
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@graemedblair
@CVandeweerdt
so awful; and that is pre-pandemic; meanwhile
@Columbia
we are shamefully threatening stipends for striking graduate students trying to improve their conditions
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please share! Four 1 year post doc positions in Berlin for researchers looking at challenges to liberalism
@scriptsberlin
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Plz share: 3 yr pstdoc
@WZB_Berlin
w me Zurn &
@steffenhuck
explorng single case causal infrnce: history&experiments
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🚨🚨
@yangyang_zhou
and
@alan_jacobs1
have just released the first of their comparative politics podcasts: a deep dive into
@salma_mousa_
's great contact experiment
This series is just a fantastic, needed, gift. Huge thanks to Alan and Yang-Yang.
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This is a great podcast. Fabulous careful work by
@tabouchadi
and a really rich discussion with
@alan_jacobs1
and
@yangyang_zhou
. Big thanks.
🚨 How has the radical far-right changed politics? In the US, they've shifted the Rep. party to take extreme positions of nativism, white supremacy, even condoning political violence.
In our newest ep.,
@tabouchadi
shares his findings in Europe. 1/4
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Then the conference continues, for sure at some cost to APSA, but people can plan, people can get reimbursed for coming, and APSA will have taken a clear moral position to not use struck hotels and not ask attending members to have to decide whether to cross picket lines.
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@jmwooldridge
I know you're joking but still Euros is the right answer: your bank's rate is always better than the vendor's rate
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@jhaushofer
I think it's so great you posted this; not easy to raise these issues while still highlightg the quality of the research itself. But its such a useful remindr. As is, too many people fear ridicule and defending it sounds dangerous.
#lawofholes
I'm sad and annoyed that my community is humiliating and ridiculing someone who has a deficient understanding of econometrics and was not modest about it. This is not the
#EconTwitter
I know and love.
A rope: 1/n
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Lookng fwd to
@EGAPTweets
meet on conflict & governce in NL &
@DutchMFA
&
@DFID_Research
discussns
BUT so disappointd that amazng scholars from Nigeria & Kenya missng because visas refsed by
@NLinNigeria
&
@NLinKenya
This exclusion happens *all the time*
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I can't imagine a decision for an academic much more difficult than that faced by
@aikhwaja
@ImranRasul3
and others last week. Step down in support of a fundamental value or stay engaged in the hopes of improving policy.
See joint reflections here:
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From the program it looks like there are about 1500 events and, from the above, 500 are in potential strike areas. Why not just commit in advance to have no events in any (potential) strike areas? Scale down by one third.
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The twin evils of publication bias in one graph:
* estimands are too large and
* estimates are even larger
You get not just a bad sample of studies published but bias *conditional* on the sample
#RegisteredReport
@aecoppock
@graemedblair
@cooper
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@grantmgordon
@graemedblair
So good Grant.
Great advice on transitioning but this thread is also 100% advice on how to make academia better.
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Thanks for this communication Sam. I share your frustrations
It seems like APSA has or will move all events from affected hotels. seems like a logistic feat and an effective relocation of the conference
Can you say more why, given that, you see online as the only viable option?
@erinrpineda
Union rep here: we are very clearly asking that
@APSAtweets
move this event to a virtual format now. That is the only tenable solution.
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@stats_tipton
@jepusto
We found your approach works *extremely* well in this horserace.
big thanks
@stats_tipton
@jepusto
we're hoping to re-run with a tougher data structure & interested in all thoughts for a harder test
@LukeSonnet
@aecoppock
@graemedblair
@jasperjcooper
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please share: 20 May deadline for small "society needs science" grants (<€10k) for funding for 2020 pilot research assessing policy interventions (in Germany or by German development institutions) on political inequality, **broadly** defined
@WZB_Berlin
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Call for papers: "Counterfactual Methods for Policy Impact Evaluation 2018" (COMPIE 2018).
Keynotes: Angrist and Rothstein Organized by Paolo Paruolo and Jochen Kluve
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v nice paper by Casey,
@rglenner
,
@tedmiguel
and Voors comparing the performance of traditional institutions, CDD-shocked institutions, & easily identified people with skills. Skills win.
Plus: Great example of benchmarking results against expert priors
Our new working paper "Skills vs voice" is out with Casey
@tedmiguel
& Voors.
We examine how well communities are able to harness the huge investments in human capital seen across much of Africa in last 20 yrs, using 2 RCTs in
#SierraLeone
.
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Deadline for our pre doc position
@WZB_Berlin
is tomorrow!
* 2 years full time
* ideal if you're seeking to enhance research exposure and develop research design and analysis skills before embarking on PhD
* political economy / development / inequality
Please share: Come join us at
@WZB_Berlin
Great 2 year pre doc position with
Apply here:
@JulioSolis
@sampskc
@lilymiru
@clara_bmc
@alex_scacco
@cmbosancianu
@nmcmurry
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There is a lot of emphasis on the need for public facing engaged discussion of these issues in the new APSA guidelines:
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You could do a lottery; but I am sure many would volunteer to have their panels cancelled so that the rest could go ahead. Or maybe we could figure for seniors to volunteer to step down, recombine panels, and ask seniors to come nevertheless to *attend* presentations by others.
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