Matt Karp 🌹🦏🇺🇸
@karpmj
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I wrote a book on slaveholders & US foreign policy
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How did we get from “The Emerging Democratic Majority” to “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?” in just two decades?
I wrote about it for The Nation
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If Bernie had lost to Warren in the first 18 primaries, he would ABSOLUTELY have endorsed her before the next race vs. Joe Biden—no matter how hard the fight or how long the odds.
Every Warren surrogate knows this. They know it in their hearts, in their blood, and in their teeth
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sometimes you do, under certain circumstances, "gotta hand it to them"
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I understand why he did it, but man, Bernie Sanders should never have suspended his campaign
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It's too bad Bernie doesn't get a clear "win" tonight. But the story here may be even better for him: Biden demands a recount, Pete claims victory at 0% reporting, chaos everywhere.
The institutional Dem Party is a mess. Only someone from the outside can get the job done in 2020
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Why Trump succeeded in capturing the Republican Party in 2016, and why Bernie failed in 2020, in one stupid chart
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Sanders leads the Iowa popular vote, but an unprecedented 40+hr delay lets another candidate, who leads only by a metric so arcane experts can barely explain it, to claim “victory” & media spotlight.
Well-meaning folx trying to talk down to Bernie voters, maybe take a breath
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Hispanic or Latino/a support in Nevada, via new Data For Progress poll:
Sanders 66%
Steyer 8%
Biden 7%
Klobuchar 7%
Warren 5%
Buttigieg 4%
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absolute masterclass by Bernie Sanders on Fox News. There is just no one else in America—no one—who can talk across party lines about the way our government can address the real needs of the people. Imagine what good he could do in a general election
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Last night voters in 12 states were asked if they back Medicare For All—"a government plan for all instead of private insurance?" All 12 states said yes.
CA: 55%-35%
TX: 64-33
NC: 55-41
VA: 52-45
MA: 50-45
MN: 62-35
CO: 57-36
TN: 53-43
AL: 51-43
OK: 53-43
ME: 69-28
VT: 62-25
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Here’s a prediction: over the next 30 years,
@briebriejoy
will have a bigger impact on American politics than
@PeteButtigieg
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You wonder when today’s Democratic Party leaders will be to muster the moral and political courage of... Ronald Reagan
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For a candidate whose main pitch is civility and decorum, Buttigieg had the worst manners of anyone on the stage
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Lincoln built his career by attacking an entrenched political & economic elite, denying the authority of the Supreme Court, & calling for the "ultimate extinction" of $3 billion in property. If he was a "conservative," words have no meaning
Lincoln repeatedly called himself a conservative and accused the Democrats of being radicals. Try reading his speeches before spouting obvious nonsense
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Check out the voter coalition Bernie Sanders has built in California, America's largest and most diverse state:
Black voters: 31% (1st)
Latino: 38% (1st)
Asian: 24% (1st)
No college: 35% (1st)
Some college: 30% (1st)
Under $60k income: 34% (1st)
Under $100k income: 31% (1st)
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The transformation of Pete Buttigieg from an 18 year old Berniebro sweetie into an amoral cog in the McKinsey machine is the most damning indictment of Harvard you can imagine
Pete Buttigieg on Bernie in 2000: "One outstanding and inspiring example of such integrity is the country’s only independent congressman, Vermont’s Bernie Sanders. Sanders’s courage is evident in the first word he uses to describe himself: “socialist.”
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tfw there's something funny going on in your Democratic coalition
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FYI there are still 2.9 million unprocessed ballots in California—more than the Democratic turnout of Virginia & North Carolina combined.
When the counting's done, Bernie may extend his CA lead by another 200,000 votes—more than Biden's winning margin in Texas & Mass. combined.
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lol why does this stuff somehow never ever happen for Bernie Sanders?
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Even as Bernie Sanders has built the largest grassroots campaign in US history — and currently leads the race in Iowa and NH — the networks still run post-debate panels without a single Bernie-friendly voice
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The most common occupation of Bernie donors is “teacher.”
The most common employers are Starbucks, Amazon and Walmart.
Wow, a populist candidate whose strongest support comes from the working class — how about that?
Bernie Sanders announces massive $25.3 million third quarter fundraising haul
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A strange 24-hour period for those sweet souls out there who continue to maintain that there is no such thing as “the Democratic establishment”
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Elizabeth Warren is 4th in the popular vote, 4th in the delegate count, polling at 12% nationwide, and almost certain to fall even farther behind next week.
Comparing this niche candidate to the Bernie 2016 campaign, which won 23 states, is an absurd joke.
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I didn’t think
@ewarren
was the best choice in 2020, but I did think she cared about policy. I did think that if the election were to slip back toward our cruel, decrepit status quo—toward a man whose only policy is “restore the soul of America!”—she might speak up.
I guess not?
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I know we're facing a pandemic & economic crisis and everyone in media just wants to move on from the primary already, but fuck, Joe Biden was on stage last night lying like a dog for 2 hours and nobody seems to care
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if there's a 'big tent' out there that includes this garbage worldview, I'm in another fucking tent
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Why is the Democratic Party at war with with its front-runner?
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SCOREBOARD SO FAR
Bernie Sanders, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson: clear condemnation of Trump's war with Iran.
Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker: very serious questions about the manner in which the president has acted towards a blood-soaked murderer
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Biden is no FDR and won’t be - they’ve already stopped talking about the public option lol - but man, he is so much better at class politics theater than any of the junior officer Dems in Obama or Clintonland
Biden: “If every investment banker in New York went on strike, nothing would much change in America. If every plumber decided to stop working, every electrician, the country comes to a halt. I mean, literally, not figuratively, literally, it comes to a damn halt."
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Hilarious how the erratic spasms of the anti-Bernie hardliners—failing to rally around Biden early on; smoothing the way for Bloomberg's spoiler run; amplifying Hillary's deranged attacks the week before Iowa—may provide just the sequence of events that pushes Bernie over the top
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More evidence that Biden's Super Tuesday surge, measured in turnout & enthusiasm, came not from black voters but from the affluent burbs
Turnout in North Carolina was up 12% from 2016, particularly in the Raleigh, Charlotte, and Greensboro metro areas. The rural plurality Black NC-1 saw a near 17% drop in turnout.
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Watching this debate, which is frustrating and even agonizing in so many ways, one thing is clear: Bernie Sanders has the kind of essential integrity that barely exists in American politics.
Joe Biden does not.
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when the dust settles on the Trump era I think we'll be struck, most of all, by its ideological emptiness. Neither of the last two US elections has been fought over questions of material politics or even governing philosophy. It's identity, affect, & personality all the way down
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Bernie lost.
But over five years, he gave the feeble American Left a precious gift: a common program, based on ambitious, universal economic demands — Medicare For All, college for all, jobs for all — and a common politics, based on a fierce rejection of billionaire class rule
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This is Bernie Sanders over a week ago, when lots of Democrats were still talking tax credits or vague promises of relief. Now something like this is in the Senate bill. Thank you Bernie
Bernie Sanders just said he’s proposing everyone who loses their job as a result of the coronavirus crisis should immediately receive unemployment benefits at 100% of their regular paycheck with an annual cap of $75,000. His opponents will fight it, but that's hard to argue with.
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If you’re a Bernie-or-bust caucusgoer in Iowa tonight, and for some reason Bernie is not viable in your precinct, I think the tactically correct order of realignment is
1. Klobuchar
2. Buttigieg
3. Leave the building
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Think about the bullying faced by a Bernie donor working in an Amazon warehouse, whose boss controls everything from her healthcare to her daily schedule.
Then think about the "bullying"—literally, rude tweets—faced by Democratic flacks here.
Which gets 3,000 words in the NYT?
At the start of his 2020 U.S. presidential campaign, Bernie Sanders told his supporters that he condemned bullying. Some don't seem to be listening.
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Bernie Sanders will win Vermont in a landslide. Elizabeth Warren is barely viable in Massachusetts.
I don't want to taunt anyone, but if we want a leader to "unite" the Democratic Party—with voters, not elites—maybe we should listen to the voters who know these candidates best.
#Massachusetts
Democratic Primary Polling:
Sanders: 25% (+12)
Warren: 17% (-15)
Buttigieg: 14% (+7)
Bloomberg: 13% (+13)
Biden: 9% (-9)
Klobuchar: 6% (+5)
Steyer: 2% (+1)
MassInc / February 26, 2020 / n=426 / MOE 4.9% / Telephone
(% chg w Oct 20)
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Imagine - just for a moment - we had a Democratic party (or even a Left) that aimed to polarize politics on this issue, rather than literally everything else you read about today
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I hate to say it, but owning the libs without Bernie in the race... sort of sucks. We're not in the game anymore, we're just angry sports talk radio callers yelling into the void
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the New York Times's interview with Bernie is more "embarrassing" than any Trump tweet
NYT really asking Bernie the important questions
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The tech companies spent more money on Prop 22 in California than Bernie raised in the entire 2020 cycle, nationally
A huge win for companies whose whole business model is premised on decimating workers’ rights.
A massive loss for Uber drivers, Instacart shoppers, food couriers, and other gig workers.
Now we have to stop
#Prop22
from being replicated in other jurisdictions.
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My daughter was born on Monday, which has led to diminished posting this week. Apologies to all. We are looking into ways to address this issue ASAP
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With Harris out, Warren fading, and the Buttigieg bubble about to pop, the Democratic media/consulting establishment is making preparations for its Long March to Biden
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these are the Cedar Rapids caucusgoers who gave Bernie Sanders the delegates that may push him over the top in Iowa
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One month ago the entire Democratic Party leadership united against the only politician demanding national health insurance for all Americans
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I'm sorry. How can you set yourself up as the anti-millionaire, anti-billionaire candidate when you can't even keep your most basic promise not to take their money?
.
@ewarren
changes her position on Super Pacs.
Feb 2019: I'm not taking applications from billionaires who want to run a Super Pac on my behalf."
Feb 2020: "So look..."
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To win in 2020, Democrats need three groups of swing voters:
🔹Obama voters who flipped to Trump
🔹Obama voters who didn’t vote in 2016
🔹Americans who usually don’t vote
Here’s why Bernie Sanders is the strongest candidate among all three groups:
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Bob Dole, 1996
John Kerry, 2004
Mitt Romney, 2012
Every time in recent history when voters have rallied to a 'safe' candidate to beat a hated incumbent (following strong party cues), they've lost.
Is Joe Biden, in his current state, really the guy to break this streak?
Keep coming back to this: the last time Dem primary voters were desperate to beat an incumbent GOP president (2004), they pretty quickly rallied around the clear delegate leader.
Have a feeling 2020 Dem voters aren’t in the mood for a contested convention.
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actually it's kind of a perfect day to learn that I got tenure
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THE OPENING TIP, THATS THE HARDEST PART OF THE BET
Senator
@BernieSanders
is the only viable candidate at the first caucus of the day in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. 14 of 15 stood for Sanders, 1 for
@ewarren
. Warren is not viable here in Ottumwa. Warren's supporter declined to realign.
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Fuck white nationalism but let's remember there are fewer Nazis in Charlottesville than fans at the last Richmond Flying Squirrels AA game
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just an uncanny ability to cut through the bullshit
has any other candidate acknowledged this reality?
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Bernie has spent 30 yrs passing amendments for vets' funding, health clinics, etc: he knows the complexity of legislative work.
But with Sanders, unlike Buttigieg or Biden, Dems would finally have a leader who has not pre-compromised with the 1% before he even comes to Congress.
Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg — none of them have a plausible path to passing the agenda they’ve promised.
Enter epiphany politics, and its toxic cycle of high hopes and deep disappointments:
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make no mistake. It’s still their castle and the only way it falls is if it is stormed
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Paul Volcker did as much as *any single person* to trigger our era of liquidity preference, capital hoarding, rapid deindustrialization, really, the predatory financialized economy of neoliberalism.
It says a lot that Warren sincerely admires the career of this historic villain
Few people have had more impact on our modern financial system than the great Paul Volcker. For more than 5 decades, he fought for more robust, efficient, & effective rules to keep the US economy safe. I’m very sorry for his loss.
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Corbyn's feat is also an argument for the Left to take elections seriously. No democracy without socialism; no socialism without democracy
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Latino voters in Texas, via new
@DataProgress
poll:
Sanders 51%
Bloomberg 16%
Biden 14%
Warren 11%
Latino voters in California, via new
@BerkeleyIGS
poll:
Sanders 51%
Bloomberg 11%
Buttigieg 8%
Warren 8%
Biden 7%
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Serious point: Please do not accept a media frame that contrasts Sean McElwee, the smug kid who still "gets stuff done" through "coalition politics," and a feckless Bernie Left, which is honorable but only knows how to lose.
That's exactly backward, as the last 5 years show:
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Four years ago, this poll showed Hillary leading Bernie by 25 points
New NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll
Sanders 27% (+6 )
Biden 26% (-2)
Warren 15% (-3)
Bloomberg 9% (+5)
Buttigieg 7% (-2)
Klobuchar 5% (-)
Yang 4% (+1)
Steyer 2% (+1)
Gabbard 2% (-)
Patrick 1% (+1)
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the nightmare of class society is that it turns even the most generous human impulse — to find something common across difference — into a machine for reproducing hierarchy and injustice
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Not a comment about Ch*po or any other p*dcast but it's true that the post-Bernie Left has lost a sense of direction. That's what defeat looks like.
It's also true that we won't find it by obsessing over the Right or gushing about small adjustments within liberalism
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The pundits most qualified to explain why Bernie lost are Elizabeth Warren supporters, obviously
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“I am the *other* Rhodes scholar on this stage” ugh burn this party down
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10 days til the Texas primary. About 5 days left for
@BetoORourke
to decide to skate on over to the Bernie Sanders campaign, help make history, and set himself up as a Democratic leader to watch for the next 20 years
Beto coming on stage on a skateboard was the coolest thing I’ve ever seen any politician do
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Let’s be clear: Bernie is FAR from intolerant of disagreement. In Congress, he worked with John McCain to protect veterans’ health care. He went to Liberty U to talk to evangelicals about poverty. He did a Fox town hall in West Virginia and won huge applause for Medicare for All!
We’ve never seen Bernie in any mode other than self-righteous anger. That’s why his followers include an unusually high % of angry, intolerant folks who display no patience with those who don’t fully agree with them and their candidate. That’s an alarming sign for taking on Trump
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This will get buried under tonight's results, but it clarifies the stakes in 2020: will the Democrats keep evolving into a party of cultural liberalism and suburban moderation—the party of business, Buttigieg, and Bloomberg? Or can they become a party of labor and Bernie Sanders?
Virginia Democrats abandoned their push to repeal the state's anti-union "right to work" law after a shocking report revealed that CEOs actually *like* it when states suppress their workers' bargaining power.
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anyone who thinks Sanders hasn't built something different at the grassroots level — something frankly new in American politics — is just choosing not to pay attention
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it turns out Neera is actually 9 years old, and completely missed the 2008 primary, which explains a lot
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Just putting the numbers together:
52% of Americans say the US should not arm Israel
66% say the US should work for a ceasefire
But
Just 2% of Congress is willing to dissent from the current policy of absolute support & heavy military assistance for Israel's war in Gaza
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Buttigieg’s health care plan is
1. administratively impossible
2. politically disastrous (an Obamacare mandate on steroids!)
3. prohibitively expensive
And no cares, because no one—Buttigieg fans, critics, or the press—really thinks he will do anything on health care anyway
Pete Buttigieg can't stop attacking Medicare for All. But his own health care plan is so bad it borders on the comical.
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No one who thinks about US history in terms of labor struggle — from Dred Scott to Janus — could ever describe the Supreme Court as a “bulwark” for anything other than the power of the bosses
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Every socialist today should aspire to be seen the way that Stephen Douglas saw Abraham Lincoln
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Elizabeth Warren's support among voters without a college degree, according to recent polls:
New Mexico: 4% (Bernie Sanders: 32%)
South Carolina: 7% (Sanders: 14%)
Iowa: 8% (Sanders: 22%)
Nevada: 9% (Sanders: 22%)
New Hampshire: 9% (Sanders: 21%)
Wisconsin: 10% (Sanders: 25%)
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It's simple: Bernie Sanders has built a multiracial & working-class movement that's prepared to challenge the power of America's ultra-wealthy elite.
No other presidential candidate, however personally admirable, can say that. No other candidate can say *anything like that.*
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Black Voters Are Not a Monolith / There's No Such Thing as "The Black Vote" pt 353:
Black voters in California (Berkeley):
SANDERS 31%
Warren 18%
Biden 12%
Black voters in California (SurveyUSA)
SANDERS 43%
Biden 33%
Warren 16%
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The corporate media and its paid ideologues want to convince you, on the basis of a literal handful of hypothetical polls—almost all inside the margin of error—that the most “electable” Dem is the 50-year DC insider with a disastrous record & visibly declining mental capacity
Bernie's electability argument is disproven by polls, really all of them
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And when Lincoln won office in 1860, his refusal to compromise on the spread of slavery — despite great pressure from "conservatives" — was one of the great radical moments in U.S. history. Here's something I wrote about Lincoln, The Great Uncompromiser
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Trying to do oppo on Bernie in the '70s but just finding more and more awesome stuff
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Ten years ago this month, days after the most sweeping left electoral mandate in 40 years, here's who Barack Obama put in charge of the U.S. government:
Rahm Emanuel
Hillary Clinton
Robert Gates
Timothy Geithner
Larry Summers
Eric Holder
Arne Duncan
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New Monmouth poll shows Bernie surging and Warren slipping with all voters and especially voters under 50:
ALL VOTERS
Biden 23% (-2)
Warren 23% (-5)
Sanders 20% (+5)🌊🌊🌊
VOTERS UNDER 50
Sanders 33% (+8)🌊🌊🌊
Biden 21% (+4)
Warren 17% (-11)
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keep it up, gang, we're almost there
@mattyglesias
right, from my standpoint the primary has been a slow motion car wreck. It's heading toward the worst possible outcome, and the best outcomes are already gone.
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Vox: Suburban professionals are the future of social democracy! Win with Warren!
Jacobin: We need workers and Bernie.
--Suburbs OVERWHELMINGLY vote Biden/Bloomberg over Warren; workers more narrowly vote Biden over Sanders
Vox: The suburbs are the future of social democracy!
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as
@willmenaker
has said, boomer Democrats like Chris Matthews think they're combat-tested veterans, but they're really POW guards policing the boundaries of the possible with every bitter breath
The Dem generational divide seems to be due to the fact that boomer liberals lived through decades of ideological defeat, so they don't believe we can win. They only know dashed '60s dreams & 50 years of right-wing ascendance. They think of themselves as "battle-weary realists."
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I don't support Bernie Sanders because he has has carved out some small turf as the "most progressive" or "most left" candidate. I support him because he is the only candidate who can capture the true center of American politics: the needs and hopes of its working-class majority.
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Leaving aside the primary campaign for a second — this is exactly the kind of "nuanced," ambiguous statement that, whatever its intent, actually serves to empower war hawks and increase the chances of war. Just a disastrous approach, all around
Soleimani was a murderer, responsible for the deaths of thousands, including hundreds of Americans. But this reckless move escalates the situation with Iran and increases the likelihood of more deaths and new Middle East conflict. Our priority must be to avoid another costly war.
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FYI for all the smarties who kept saying “the DNC” had nothing to do with the Iowa clusterfuck
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Think about how much Bernie has transformed politics in the last four years, just as a Democratic primary runner-up.
Now imagine him and his movement in a general election, when roughly FOUR TIMES as many voters are paying attention. We can change this country, people
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Lol “plumbers in my bathroom.” I love that this woman can only imagine the working class as a class that works for her
Hello everyone. Billionaires in wine caves have as much right to say who gets to be president as waitresses in diners and plumbers in my bathroom. Class warfare is ugly,
@ewarren
Thanks for listening everyone.
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Can we be honest for a second? There is no reason to believe that Elizabeth Warren will take any political risk, spend any political capital, or wage any political struggle to win Medicare for All.
If you won't fight for Medicare for All, you don't support Medicare for All.
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Great to see the absolute best people in politics all flocking to boost Elizabeth Warren here.
Yes, THIS is the alliance of thin-skinned academics, millionaire influence-peddlers, and neocon op-ed writers that will finally bring social democracy to America.
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lol woke twitter totally helped sink Kamala’s campaign and it’s kind of beautiful
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After denouncing superdelegates across the whole campaign, Bernie floated this argument to justify staying in the race to the end. But in the end, he used his delegate leverage to win concessions in the platform, and no more: he did *NOT* attempt to force a brokered convention
1) Bernie and his campaign did argue *repeatedly* in 2016 that superdelegates should consider overturning the will of Democratic primary voters, so as to nominate the most electable candidate.
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Among the frontrunners, the favorability gap here is wild:
Bernie +46%
Biden +28%
Warren +28%
Buttigieg +10%
Among registered Latino voters in California who plan to vote in the Democratic primary:
Bernie Sanders: 31%
Joe Biden: 22%
Elizabeth Warren: 11%
Julian Castro: 9%
Kamala Harris: 8%
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Turnout in Detroit was 49.6%, vs. 48.6% in '16—even as it soared nearly everywhere in Michigan.
It's not that "the Black vote" "underperformed." It's that Biden-Harris didn't convince working-class voters in Detroit, etc, that this was "the most important election of our lives"
Final count in Detroit: Biden beat Trump by 227,865 votes in Detroit, nearly identical to Clinton's 227,189 vote margin in '16. Clinton won 96% of the vote there, Biden 95%.
Once again, the early hot takes about underperforming Black vote just aren't holding up.
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When Trump uses one soldier's death to win thunderous media acclaim, we move closer to "fascism" than when he tweets at CNN from the toilet
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