Tom Bonier
@tbonier
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CEO @thetara_group , Sr Advisor @TargetSmart , former @HowardU , @claritycampaign , @ncec1948 , @SEIULocal500 . DM inquiries
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Joined March 2009
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Pinned Tweet
I’m here. And there.
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Tamir Rice was killed for having a toy gun. He was 12.
Unidentified militia has arrived at
#EmancipationPark
ahead of the
#Charlottesville
rally with guns in tow.
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Wow. I've been sharing data showing a huge surge in women registering to vote since the 6/24 Dobbs decision. I just started to look at some age and party breakdowns of those new registrants, and the numbers are jaw-dropping.
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If a speech about defending democracy strikes you as overly political, you may be part of the problem.
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Some 67,879 Georgians who did not vote in the general election have already voted in the runoff. A majority of them are voters of color. Incredibly, 40% are African-American. These are not just new voters - two-thirds are over the age of 35.
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At this point in 2014, voters under the age of 30 had cast 849,876 votes. This year?
2,347,864 voters under the age of 30 have already voted, and counting.
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239,822 African American voters over the age of 65 have already voted in Georgia. That's 124% of the total 2016 turnout for African American seniors.
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Food stamp fraud costs the US less than the cost to taxpayers for just 3 months of Trump's family living in NYC. But yeah, starve the poor.
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I won't celebrate Jeff Flake for acting to delay the floor vote. I'll celebrate the bravery of Maria Gallagher and Ana Maria Archila for confronting Senator Flake with their own stories of assault, and demanding he listen.
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Roe Wave > Red Wave
At this point, with a potential 1 seat gain for Dems in the Senate and the margin in the House likely to be no more than a few seats either way, it's safe to say that Dobbs changed everything. And this shouldn't have surprised anyone.
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For those keeping count, I've found that Bannon, Mnuchin, Priebus, Kushner, and Tiffany Trump are all registered to vote in two locations.
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One more note. In May and June, when Dem voter registration had bottomed out due to the pandemic and GOPs were outregistering Dems, it was the George Floyd/BLM demonstrations that created a huge Dem voter reg spike.
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Yep. They announced this 16 months ago. It was an agreement with UAW. A labor union. They got this done, not you.
It's finally happening - Fiat Chrysler just announced plans to invest $1BILLION in Michigan and Ohio plants, adding 2000 jobs. This after...
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Starting in PA, where women have accounted for >56% of new registrants in that time period. Those women new registrants are 62%D to 15% R and 54% are under the age of 25. Compare that to men new registrants at 41% <25 and 43% D, 28% R.
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112,886 Georgians who did not vote in the general election have already voted in the runoff. 22% are under the age of 25, a group that comprises 12% of registered voters in the state.
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748,973 voters under the age of 30 have already voted in Texas.
66% of them didn't vote in '16.
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More black voters over the age of 65 have already voted in Georgia (201,889) than voted in total in the 2016 presidential election (193,993). There are still 9 days of voting remaining.
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Here's a summary of the Taibbi thread for those who don't want to wade through it:
- Both Dems and GOPs asked twitter to delete certain tweets, and twitter sometimes obliged.
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Among Kansans who registered to vote on or after June 24th (when the Dobbs decision was announced), Democrats have an 8 pt advantage. Compare that to the GOP's overall advantage of 19 pts among all registered voters in Kansas. The landscape changed on June 24th.
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@CaseyCagle
@Delta
@NRA
Also, as an elected official do you consider it your job to only protect the financial interests of conservatives? Can you note an occasion that you stood up to protect the interests of liberals who were under attack?
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The images of students around the country waiting in long lines to vote today are both inspiring and infuriating. There is no excuse for making people wait for hours to cast a ballot.
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A swing of 3,340 votes from GOP to Dem in the 5 closest House races would have allowed Dems to hold the House.
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Remember that it will likely take longer to count mail votes, and counting is usually slower in Dem counties in Georgia. The Dems will likely start off behind and their deficit will slowly shrink over the course of the night (and next few days). Don't overreact to early results.
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There are over 100 Republicans sitting in districts that wouldn't have been heavily GOP enough to overcome the D swing we saw in KS tonight.
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States w/ substantial early vote reported thus far and where voters of color have increased their vote share over the same point in '18:
CA, FL, GA, ID, IN, MD, MI, MN, NE, NJ, NM, NY, NC, OH, PA, VA.
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Your random election data stat of the day: 455,323 black people have registered to vote in Georgia since Donald Trump was elected president. Trump carried the state by 211,141 votes.
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New registrants in PA post Dobbs decision: +30% Dem. New registrants in PA pre-Dobbs decision: +4% Dem.
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Remember the surge in registration among women voters in KS leading up to the vote 2 weeks ago? We released a new report today showing increasing proportions of women among new registrants in other key states, all since the Dobbs decision on June 24th.
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I don't see a plausible path for Republicans to hold onto these Senate seats.
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Having people I respect call me a "crosstab truther", accuse me of spreading "hopium" while mocking early vote analysis wasn't great. But it doesn't matter. American voters are rejecting GOP extremism. That's what matters.
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2.5 million Hispanic voters have cast a ballot already, nationwide. At this point in '14, Hispanic voters had cast 1.1 million votes. This surge is greater than that measured among any other race or ethnic group.
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Clay County, GA is a rural African-American county. It turned out at 91.2% of general election turnout, higher than any GOP county I have seen report so far. The rural Black vote came out.
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Another 1,800 or so votes counted in GA, of which Biden wins 71%. He's tracking just above where needs to be in the remaining votes to win narrowly.
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Just a reminder that the President, First Lady, and Chairwoman of the Republican National Committee have all voted by mail already this year. They just don't want to afford you the right to vote in a way that won't risk your life.
President Trump: "Mail ballots -- they cheat. Okay? People cheat. Mail ballots are a very dangerous thing for this country 'cause there're cheaters. They go and collect them. They're fraudulent in many cases."
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Over 1.3M mail ballot requests have been submitted for the general by Pennsylvania voters.
67.9% from Dems, 26.2% from GOPs.
194,266 of those voters didn't vote in '16. These new voters skew young (39% <35) and Dem.
Donald Trump carried the state in '16 by 44,292 votes.
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Georgia - Biden now faces a 1,902 vote margin. There are 15,074 votes remaining to be counted, per the Sec State reports. That means he needs just over 56% of the outstanding votes, while he has been averaging better than 70% of the ballots counted today.
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Brett Kavanaugh is a registered Republican. He donated to George Bush's presidential campaign - and even worked for his campaign as a recount attorney.
...is the RNC low key arguing to remove Kavanaugh from the bench?
Ketanji Brown Jackson is a registered Democrat. She donated to Obama’s presidential campaign – and even worked for his campaign as a poll monitor.
In 2016, her husband donated $1,600 to Hillary Clinton’s campaign.
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I'll be updating with more states later on, but had to share these results ASAP, given how remarkable they are.
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A few hot NY 3 takes. It appears:
- The polls had a pro-GOP bias, again
- Immigration backfired for the GOP, esp in the context of their legislative failure
- GOP turnout suffered, but not enough to explain these margins. Suozzi won a lot of Inds and a decent number of GOPs
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Here's an incredible stat: I've mentioned that 114,017 AAPI voters cast an early vote in GA this year, 56% more than the 72,698 who voted in total in '16.
But here's the incredible part - 30,571 were voting for the first time, ever.
Joe Biden carried GA by 14,122 votes.
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In 6 battleground states, black voters over the age of 65 have already exceeded their overall 2016 turnout numbers, thereby already setting turnout records with 6 days still remaining: AZ, FL, GA, NC, NV, TX.
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Voters under the age of 30 accounted for 1.05 million votes at this point in '14. This year, they've cast over 3 million ballots already, increasing their vote share from 5.2% to 8.4%. Should this trend hold through tomorrow, the youth vote will be decisive in a lot of races.
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The Dobbs decision engaged women in Kansas to an unprecedented degree.
This chart shows the percent of new registrants in the state who were women (as a 7 day average). Note the spike after the Dobbs decision leaked, and huge jump after the Supreme Court handed it down.
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A district that went GOP by 13% in '15 was won by a transgender Democrat tonight.
Danica Roem (D) has defeated Bob Marshall (R) in HD13. She will be America's first transgender state legislator.
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Oh, and perhaps more impressive (and problematic for the GOP): 70% of Kansans who registered to vote after the Dobbs decision was handed down on June 24th are women.
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Mississippi is a literal welfare state, in that it takes almost 3x the amount of federal dollars its taxpayers pay in. And Gov Reeves is fine with that, unless you want to spend that money on hungry kids, then it's a no.
Gov. Tate Reeves' office says Mississippi won't participate in a federal summer food program for children because of his desire to reject “attempts to expand the welfare state.”
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Things are not looking good for the GOP. Washington County, a swing county Perdue won by 1.7% in the general, goes to Ossoff by 2.4%. That's 3x Biden's 0.7 pt margin.
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23,975,574 Americans who didn't vote in the 2016 election have already voted.
7,816,118 of these voters were voting for the first time in their life.
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I've been working in electoral politics for a long time. There's a pattern that follows most elections. When Dems win, credit goes to "swing voters". When Dems lose, the blame falls on people of color. Let's not do that this time.
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Speaking with
@jaketapper
on CNN,
@JohnKasich
refuses to call Trump 'racist', because he's "not a name caller". This isn't the grade school playground, governor. Take a stand or get out of the way.
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I don’t personally know
@cbouzy
but I do know that he predicted this election with great precision. Super impressive.
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- Twitter was worried about being used to distribute hacked info without info on veracity or source, so they removed this content out of an abundance of caution. This made some people angry.
That's it so far, after something like 40 tweets.
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It's like "The TWITTER FILES" but with actual scandals, including treason.
BREAKING: 2,319 texts from Mark Meadows now public, showing 34 Republican members of Congress texting with him about January 6, the fake electors, and declaring martial law (or "Marshall Law," sic), per Talking Points Memo.
Every single one of them must be held accountable.
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With close to 700,000 votes cast in Ohio ahead of today's election on the anti-abortion rights Question 1, it is clear women are engaged and turning out at an unusually high rate. They account for 56% of ballots cast.
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We're now up to 89,556 early voters in Georgia who didn't vote in the general election. The African American share of these surge voters is increasing, now at 40.2%.
Some 67,879 Georgians who did not vote in the general election have already voted in the runoff. A majority of them are voters of color. Incredibly, 40% are African-American. These are not just new voters - two-thirds are over the age of 35.
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They should wait in line for an extra 7 or 8 hours, then they'll know what it feels like to be a Black American trying to cast their ballot.
Rep. Steve Scalise, the No. 2 Republican, told me that the situation is “untenable” because it “impedes the ability of members to come and vote. This is our job.” These are the lines
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More Latino voters have already voted in Georgia (106,292) than voted in the entire 2016 election in the state (96,465).
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Georgia just dropped another 7,817 votes. Biden took 74%, he is down 14,765 votes. Still tracking well for Biden.
Perdue is under 50, headed to a runoff.
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There are a handful of counties that are close to 90% reported in GA, almost all heavily GOP rural counties. Warnock is running 2-3 pts ahead of Biden in most of these counties, so far. That's a reasonably good sign for Warnock, but the big question will be metro ATL turnout.
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Later on I'll share more thoughts on what the data shows as to the flipping of Georgia, but I'll add one high level note now - for those suggesting BLM cost Democrats seats, the movement had 13 pt net favorability in Georgia, and Biden won among those voters by landslide margins.
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It’s nice to watch a presidential speech and not wonder “did he just flash a white power sign?”
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Movie pitch: a conman gets elected to Congress based on a fake persona. Exposed, he must win back the trust of his constituents by enrolling in college, graduating with honors, and becoming the star of the volleyball team.
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- Taibbi says that the deletions weren't balanced, but offers no evidence of that claim, he just points out that a lot of people who work at Twitter donate to Dems.
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I've seen some noting that the number of new regs we've seen since Dobbs is small relative to the number of existing regs (presumably to minimize what we're seeing). That's accurate, but variations in new registrant patterns are indicative of changes in intensity overall.
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It took historic levels of Dem turnout to beat Trump. The GOP will pass voter suppression laws in key states between now and 2024, and will benefit from gerrymandering in 2022. If Dems don’t act boldly now, we could be looking at a second Trump presidency.
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It's weird that the GOP closing message of "let's dissolve the constitution, but also, we're pretty sure that we have a constitutional right to tweet out stolen pics of genitalia" didn't seal the deal in Georgia.
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Allegheny County, PA: w/ 58% of precincts reporting, turnout in the Dem primary is on track to far surpass that of every midterm primary since at least '98. Are we seeing a more energized Dem party in the first election to take place after the Roe leak? More analysis tc tomorrow.
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I'm ready to make a prediction:
The people who are saying you can't learn anything from 45 million early votes will be breathlessly sharing exit polls at around 5PM tomorrow, saying the high % of respondents ranking the economy as their top issue must be a good sign for GOPs.
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If Fetterman lost ground due to the debate, it's certainly not showing up in the early vote. In the past week the Dem margin, relative to the same point in 2020, just continues to grow.
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An incredible 5.8 million ballots have been cast in Texas. That's 1.1 million more votes cast than in the entire 2014 election!
Voters age 18-39 account for 24% of those ballots. They were only 13% of the early vote in '14.
These are not minor shifts we're witnessing.
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The GOP loses the popular vote in '16 by 3M votes and governs with the confidence of a landslide winner. Dems win a Senate seat by 100k votes in a formerly-red state and complain that the margin wasn't big enough.
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We have 98% of individual vote history reported from Florida. GOP turnout was at 104% of 2018 totals. Dem turnout was 80% of '18, resulting in an electorate that was +12 GOP, as compared to +1.5 GOP in '18. Dems just stayed home.
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When DeKalb County drops its Election Day votes, these races are likely over.
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How did more people vote early in Texas than voted in total in any other election in the state's history? Huge surges in turnout from every race/ethnic group except white, non-college voters, whose turnout is still 282,446 votes behind 2016 levels.
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@elonmusk
@Unfilteredboss1
@KimDotcom
Having lost an election, you're now going to change the rules to stop those who oppose you from participating in elections. Your GOP assimilation is complete, congrats!
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Your random election data stat(s) of the day: 2,644,532 people have registered to vote in Texas since Election Day '16. 1,660,173 of those new voters are people of color and/or under the age of 25. Trump carried the state by 807,179 votes.
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I don't see a path for Walker. I don't make calls on races, but I can tell you I'm confident enough to stop doing the math on this one. Dems defied history to gain a seat in the Senate. The 2022 cycle is over.
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I've been going through some of the college campus precincts this morning. This one at University of Michigan is indicative of why the work of youth organizing is so incredibly important. 93% voted for the Dem ticket.
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Well over 200,000 people who have NEVER voted in any election before now have already cast a ballot in Texas. The state with the second highest number of first time voters, CA, has only 78,000. Keep that in mind as you assess the polls in Texas.
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And for those pointing out that Dems may have lost some House seats in conservative districts, at least in part due to BLM: If you define your party based on what you think might work in one district in Oklahoma, you're doing it wrong.
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What's driving that swing? Young voters. Voters under the age of 25 accounted for 29% of new registrants this year, pre-Dobbs. Since Dobbs, those youngest voters comprise 37% of new voter registrations.
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This is a sincere question - what is the case to be made for things improving for Palestinians under Trump? I imagine some might say that things could not be worse, but is that a serious argument?
“Enjoy Trump, ‘cuz we’re never voting for Biden” A pro-Palestine protester says to Biden supporters leaving from tonight’s fundraiser in New York
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Will today be the day that the NV Senate race is called and we can officially say Republicans have failed to win control of the Senate? We'll see. In the meantime, I have some interesting turnout stats, as we have 92% of vote history reporting.
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Sunday show producers/reporters/hosts:
I hope you will ask every GOP elected official on your show today if they support Donald Trump's call to "root out" the "vermin" in this country, and if so, what that looks like to them. And if not, what are they going to do to stop him.
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This is from the DeKalb site. It hasn't shown up in the national trackers yet, but it will. This race is over, Ossoff will win.
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"Use it or lose it" purging of voters if they choose not to vote in consecutive elections is simply voter suppression. In Georgia alone 673,594 votes were cast in 2020 by voters who did not cast a ballot in '16 or '18 but were registered for both of those elections.
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Joe Biden carried Tarrant County, TX by 1,764 votes, the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry the county since LBJ in 1964. With a population of over 2M people, Tarrant County is bigger than 12 states and the District of Columbia.
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GA - 6,313 votes added to the count. Biden takes 75%. About 39,000 votes remaining, Biden needs about 62% of those votes to erase Trump's 9,525 vote lead.
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Clarke County, GA is fully reporting (home to Athens, and UGA) - Warnock won it by 44.2%, Biden carried it by 42%.
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For those calling for healing in this country by way of just moving on: that's not healing. That's denial. You have to remove the tumor before you can focus on healing.
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You know what would be a great symbol of the resiliency of our American democracy? Congress returning to the Capitol tonight, affirming the votes of the Electoral College, and then impeaching and removing Trump.
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In Texas, the total early turnout of white college-educated voters is at 94% of their final 2016 turnout. White non-college voters are at 67%.
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Of the 3.6M voters having casted an early ballot thus far, 490k, or 13.5% didn't vote in 2016.
Of the 347k black voters who have cast a ballot thus far, 16% didn't vote in 2016.
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If you dislike the feeling of waiting hours (days?) to know who won an election, tell your state elected officials to allow for early counting of early votes in future elections! Massive early voting should lead to a faster count, not significantly slower.
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