Jeff Hawn 🇺🇸🇬🇧🇺🇦🌻
@jeff_hawn
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Doctoral Candidate at LSE International History. Russian Constitutional Crisis of 1993. Dyslexic Academic. Perpetually optimistic constantly disappointed.he/him
London, England
Joined November 2016
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I think I’m done for a while on here yall can find me on the other place but going to delete the app so n my phone. Though keep the account open.
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I’ve noticed a recurring pattern among the anti Ukrainian westerners. A fundamental often willful misunderstanding of Maiden that characterizes it as a “coup” when in fact the evidence overwhelmingly shows it was a popular revolution. 1/
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I must ask is the Russian intellectual elite really so devoid of reason as to think that Russia will be seen as anything but a threat by Europe for decades? They seem to keep thinking this isolation is temporary. I don’t think it is.
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The first to be pushed to the front will be poor boys from Tatarstan,Buryatia, Chechnya, Dagestan and other minority regions. Listen to the people from these places and who know these places and who understand the sinister evil of Russian militarism
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@daisyldixon
People like you Dr Dixon are a inspiration for my daughter and daughters everywhere. We the fathers thank you and say keep up the good work.
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I am currently scrambling to download every document I can from the Yeltsin center before Russia disconnects from the internet completely
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I say you are not a real Eurasianist until you have survived 12 trips on a Marshrutka
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Here is a question lots of people will likely be crying in Russias streets где мой сын (where is my son) they didn’t want this he did. Old man out
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1/ Dear colleagues thank you for your patience. I am currently supposed to be on holiday, but events call me to comment and what events indeed. First a preface.
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@bad_histories
Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia,Czech Republic, Hungry, China, Mongolia, Afghanistan.
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Everyday I check the front page Moscow Times. My wife asked why do you do that? I am looking for a obituary darling. Obituaries aren’t on the front page. The one I’m looking for will be.
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My students were shocked to learn the German Empire was formally proclaimed in the Hall of Mirrors in Versailles. Then one nodded and said “Oh now the treaty of Versailles makes sense” yup buddy
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So does anyone object to suggesting Russians against the war adopt a New Democratic flag they can unfurl at protest to show there support for a end of the criminal regime the way Belarus have their Democratic banner.
@der_Laokrat
designed quite a beautiful banner.
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To be part of Europe. The denial of Ukrainian agency counties to this day and that is what I find most troubling. Nations are not just entities on maps to be manipulated at will they are complex social organisms that do not behave in linear fashion 4/
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That is just one element of a a very complex social movement. By dismissing it as some sort of artificial construct agency is denied to the Ukrainian people when in fact the primary driver of Maiden was a profound generational and social shift in people’s desire 3/
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People love to quote Thucydides but ultimately doesn’t Athens fall to authoritarianism and lose then both nations are conquered by Macedonia. It seems like the lesson is we should strive for cooperation not competition
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There will be accusations this was somehow staged. I have served as an analyst on probably 20 terror attacks and thwarted attacks. It is shocking how easily these can come together. Based on available evidence, this was most definitely an attack likely carried out by ISK.
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I think more cities should do this to honor the ongoing struggle against fascism
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In conclusion simple answers exist only in the minds of the delusional and the insane
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12/ Both the SBU and FSB have the means but the motive...hmmm. Dugin was a clown on the fringes of the actual power structure. If. Ukriane was going to send a hit squad all the way to Moscow why not take out a military official or civil servant even a mid ranking one.
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Ten years ago someone told me studying Russia would be boring god i which they had been right
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Now I am wary of some assertions such as the use of agent provocateurs by the government it seems far more likely Ukraines active anarchist scene saw the protest as a opening to riot but 2/
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21/ Side note yes I am calling this terrorism because I use the definition: terrorism is all politically motivated violence. That said I remind my readers one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter.
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3/ Now for the main issue the death by explosion of Darya Dugin unabashed neo-nazi and daughter of well known but not as influential as he wants you to think he is Alexander Dugin.
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It must be said. The Ukrainian war effort must be supported until the bells of St. Vladimir of Sevastopol ring in liberation. People hemming and hawing about negotiation at this point are either naive or malicious
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17/ 2. As does the fact the attack happened on the anniversary of Navalnys posioning. Highly symbolic of those against the regime striking back. 3. The manifesto is clearly intended for both domestic and foreign consumption.
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5/ Many of my more seasoned colleagues (see
@SevaUT
and
@russophiliac
) noted that the use of bombs in cars is a favoured method of assasination in Russia durning the 1990s especially among organized crime. This is true and
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14/ If the FSB wanted to take out Dugin a bomb is the wrong way to do it. Its loud and public it sends a message. No the FSB would probably just walk into his apartment and he would fall out a window. Cops would write it up as a accident job done.
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@ruth_deyermond
Seems to be a consistency in Russian regimes is a need for external validation
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2/ Yes I am a historian studying the emergence of modern Russia before that I worked for 4.5 years at a private intelligence company looking at left-wing and right-wing terrorism in Europe and Eurasia. I never expected these two skill sets to come in such handy.
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20/ Now here is the kicker. The NRA could well be 5 guys in a cellar somewhere because modern terrorism doesn't require a rigid command system or strong organization.
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@SevaUT
It was previously noted elsewhere as this is defacement of the All Union flag it is technically counter revolutionary activity thus covered under article 58
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23/ But basically LR was created by American neo-nazis after the 1988 Fort Smith sedition trials when it became clear that most neo-nazi groups in the US had more undercover cops than actual members.
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Should I email that academic who said there was no point in studying post-cold war US Russia relations ? 🤔
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@Otto_English
I discuss patriotism in my uni classes I used James Baldwin to illustrate healthy patriotism “I love America more than any other country in the world and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually.”
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I have offered my best assessment based on evidence, including viewing video footage. As a result, I am having a PTSD episode. I worked on the Christ Church NZ attack and the video of it still haunts me. This is triggering that. I am going to log off and look at flowers.
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22/ Now we resume. A wise old owl known as
@stick631
schooled me on the concept of leaderless resistance. You can read more here👇
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So I love the blue and White banner that is being adopted by Russians who oppose the war and the criminal regime. Flags ideally should be simple but also highly symbolic it’s a tough balance sometimes. 1/
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But what everyone in Moscow wants to know is Monday still a holiday?
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10/ The reason I am laying all this out is that no one knows for sure who killed Darya and may well have meant to kill Alex as well but there are theories oh there are theories.
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@JoeKassabian
Hunting in a medieval levy hahah that’s rich they’d hang you as a poacher nope it’s ransacking the peasants and subsiding on various gruels while the lords feast on game (when there is any to be had)
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We need to talk more about Russian ethnic minorities. Just saying.
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31/ It is worth noting though that even if the NRA is a fantasy of 5 Russian exiles in Kyiv its call to action can and likely will be answered by people in Russia.
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I have to cut this beautiful sentence from my thesis. 😭 "No one interviewed for this project recalls ever seeing Zhirinosky in a state that could be described as sober."
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Have you ever written 10,000 words then gone back reread it and thought well this is completely shit😔
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15/ So the meaty bit then a claim of responsibility by a group calling itself the National Republican Army who also published a manifesto calling for the overthrow of the regime.
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It is possible to critique recent US policy towards Russia but also fully support a democratic Ukraine. It’s not a binary choice.
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18/ 4. As we noted the tradecraft for this kind of attack is easy to obtain or to find someone with the skill set to do it. 5. There has always been genuine opposition to the war even before it began.
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Good article illustrates the sheer stupidity of recent public discussion
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I’ll admit one reason I did not think this war would happen was because every guy I’ve ever talked to who did his conscription time talked at length about what a mess the Russian army is. Corruption, brutality, lack of basic equipment. 1/
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The still incomplete monument of secondary sources currently being utilized in my dissertation.....the pain
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19/ The Kremlin's repression of peaceful protest means at least some will be convinced that militant action is required.
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@daniel_dsj2110
I think it was Condoleezza Rice who noted the huge absence of historical context or memory in the White House Situation Room
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16/ Could these indeed be the culprits? Well, maybe they have several things in their favour. 1. Dugin as discussed is well known but outside the inner circle killing him or his daughter sends a powerful message.
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Madam these gentleman beg to differ emphatically
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@SashoTodorov1
@dasha_reports
Unless he signed up for reserve training at uni but never did it because the budget had been reallocated. I’ve heard this happened a lot
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Some folks I know put together a website for info on Ukraine and how you can help they are still building it but progress
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@IvvyNemo
@auto_glam
Article 49 of the Geneva convention allows for POW to be used in labor so long as the labor is neither overly strenuous or dangerous this is well within the accords.
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11/ Most hinge on the security services and some elaborate false flag or a Ukrainian hit squad. While I cant say these are impossible I do think it is quite a complex explanation. Lets consider MMM means, motive, and method.
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I feel like most Slavic studies people start off hopeful then end up deeply cynical
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I do find it irritating American media continue to treat the Yeltsin period as sunshine and rainbows…it was not and I intended to argue forcefully the road to where we are now was laid in 1993.
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6/ Such attacks continued before the war as part of my remit in 2017 I saw a number in Kyiv targeting Ukrainian officials but also Chechen volunteers fighting with Ukraine.
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34/ and if you are interested in things Russia and wish to seek genuine expertise I recommend:
@AllysonEdwards1
@AlexKokcharov
@DrJadeMcGlynn
@ABarbashin
@Saveliev_David
@ksvarnon
@IvanUlisesKK
@irgarner
@ntrickett16
@MarkGaleotti
@LatypovaLeyla
@BuddyYakov
@russophiliac
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13/ As for the FSB or some faction within why target Dugin for a false flag. As a pretext for a crackdown? Why not just discover a gang of Ukrainian saboteurs look they even have a Shakespear obviously trained by MI6.
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8/ in places like Russia thanks to a thriving black market for military ordnance and construction explosives you can build a detonator out of items bought at a toy shop. But how to access the car well if its locked you can easily use a slim jim to pop the lock or
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@samagreene
It rather reminds me of negotiations in the middle ages, sometimes, threatening a fight is as good as actually starting one.
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⚡️Lukashenko confirms rockets fired at Ukraine from Belarus, threatens to join war on Ukraine.
The Belarusian dictator also confirmed that wounded Russian soldiers were being treated in Belarusian hospitals
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NYT and other outlets now saying new invasion of Ukraine is not imminent. Who could have predicted that well several people did
@SimTack
@leonidragozin
@MarkGaleotti
and oh right me..
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28/ The NRA manifesto and claim of attack is a call to action. People within Russia against the war who are not hard left or hard right now have a common ideology to rally around.
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A small but important change to my profile trying to hide it for 25 years I finally accept its part of me and I want to be a advocate to my community ✊🏼to the dyslexic and other neurodiverse community
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@DrCsC88
Question wasn’t there a coup attempt after the second bombing? Does this support the argument a portion of the military was willing to resist to the death? Thus underscoring the bombs did indeed serve a purpose?
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25/ Which the above ground would celebrate. Here are some real world examples. OKC 1993, Oslo 2011, Boston 2013, Barcelona 2017, Christchurch 2019. Each of these were hugely destructive and you will note carried out by individuals of different ideologies.
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4/ Darya was killed the night of August 20th when an explosion seeming to emanate from within her vehicle went off. A host of internet sleuths noted the roof of the vehicle was blown off indicating some kind of explosive was used.
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32/ Less we forget also Russia has a very long history of political terrorism see the fate of old Stolypin for more details. Most of these acts were pin pricks until at last the stress of war brought the whole edifice crashing down.
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I am very pleased to be joining New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy as a non-resident fellow
We are pleased to announce that
@jeff_hawn
has joined us as a non-resident fellow! Hawn is a doctoral candidate with
@LSEnews
, his research focuses on the aftermath of the Cold War and the emergence of modern
#Russia
.
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9/ If its valet parked slip the valet $100 bucks. The point is there are multiple ways to gain acess to a car with skills that can be learned from a youtube video.
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30/ Moreover the NRA provides a alternative to the regime so if it does prove to be sucessful perhaps we will see it morph into a actual insurgency akin to the IRA, Tamil Tigers or others.
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7/ Other explosions were suspected OC. Often the attack is quite simple place explosives within the vehicle often under the passenger seat. Then detonate with a remote. If you can obtain the explosives somthing that is fairly easy
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24/ The idea then was to create a resistance movement that could not be infiltrated because it had no leadership. Instead above ground elements would use media to push a common narrative while individuals or small groups would conduct attacks.
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@GrantGHurst
But do you really have a choice? Employers and society demand higher and higher levels of education even as higher education is increasingly hollowed out in order to increase pro..revenue and bring in more students.
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26/ All of who had little to no professional training. In fact, the majority were losers who deserve to rot in prison and or hell.
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In my latest I examine how the Russian military as a institution enables war crimes
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@steven_seegel
Frankly I cannot blame anyone from Ukraine right now for being angry at the world. When your cities are under fire and kids are dying nuance does not appeal to you.
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29/ Yes most actions will be amateurish and sloppy probably inflicting little damage, but they will be immpossible for the Russian state to stomp out.
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