For the avoidance of doubt: The opinions and analysis I express on this platform are my own and do not reflect the positions of any particular institution. Just in case: https://t.co/NTZxAI2gbI https://t.co/ykAMNJbdos https://t.co/ujpScNii69

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Lest you think Lukashenka is loosening the screws 👇

In other words, MAGA foreign policy is not a recipe for reduced American intervention in the world. It is a recipe for redirecting intervention in the service not of national interests, but regime interests.

And then this: America will intervene only when its interests are at stake. And migration and progressivism in Europe, alongside climate and social media regulation, are clearly a threat.

Meanwhile, the text proposes granting Russia and China dominion (euphemistically called championship) in their neighborhoods. Read: European power is a threat to America, Chinese and Russian power is not.

To wit: making Europe great again is a mask for structurally weakening the EU.

Whoever leaked this seems to be trying to say, “see, it could have been worse, but cooler heads prevailed.” But the parts they didn’t publish are the parts they’re already pursuing: a concert with Russia and China, and political intervention in Europe. https://t.co/pR8gjJC4T0

Разбор полетов с @plushev -- Трамп, Путин, Зеленский, Европа, активы, хороводы... https://t.co/0ItU7pMZgT

What this really means: The EU should be abolished so that great powers run by unaccountable oligarchs can better bully smaller countries.

Should Europe negotiate with Russia? Yes, but not yet. Some thoughts, among luminaries, for @Carnegie_Europe. https://t.co/zBnmIBmODv

Thoughts on Putin's visit to Delhi for @BBCNews

And in case you were wondering, the TLDR on Ukraine in the NSS is as follows: 1) Ukraine cannot win 2) Ukraine only continues to fight because Europe blocks peace 3) Europe suppresses democracy in then name of war 4) Europe needs to end the war to restore democracy

And this. If you thought the Musk/Vance interventions were a passing fad, maybe think again.

En route back to London from Berlin, there is a subtle but palpable shift here and in Europe more broadly from “we need to keep the Americans in the room” to “we need to keep the Americans in the room *for now*”. Not hard to see why.

Kinda puts this reporting into context:

European priorities for Trump’s new National Security Strategy: ( https://t.co/c7Y74gSfSc)

Let me reassure those of you who think that Trump is emulating Putin. He isn’t. There are no government buildings in Moscow named after Putin. In 25 years of increasing autocracy, Russia has still failed to achieve this degree of sycophancy.

Hey political science peeps! Get your paper proposals in for @anilkahvecioglu and my @ECPR workshop on the Social and Psychological Factors of Mass Support for Authoritarianism! Deadline now extended to 10 December! https://t.co/Hnci46D9Hb

As Witkoff and Kushner board their flight home from Moscow, it’s probably time to re-up this thread.

To be clear: This is *exactly* what I (and others) have been calling for all along: a commitment to widen the war if Russia renews its attack. That's deterrence. If Trump is serious, great. But unless Trump is prepared to put real pressure on Putin, there's no way he signs.