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Eugene Finkel Profile
Eugene Finkel

@eugene_finkel

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Professor, Johns Hopkins SAIS. Study horrible things, write books. The current one:

Joined January 2021
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 months
This book is happening. It really is. Unfortunately, when it comes to intent to destroy, nothing changed.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
As a genocide scholar I am an empiricist, I usually dismiss rhetoric. I also take genocide claims with a truckload of salt because activists apply it almost everywhere now. Not now. There are actions, there is intent. It's as genocide as it gets. Pure, simple and for all to see
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
If Bucha doesn't make Germany, Italy and the rest of the EU to declare an embargo on Russian energy by Monday afternoon, likely nothing in this war will. This is not an army, not a state, this is a drug cartel with tanks. Their drug is energy and the EU are willing addicts
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Wasn't sure if to write this. It is blunt and will offend surely many but I have privilege and therefore, responsibility. It is also long and personal. I am writing for Germans, but in English. It will reach more people this way and my German is not good enough. /1
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Got questions about why I think it is genocide. Until this morning I resisted applying the term. War crimes? Sure. Heinous rhetoric? You bet. What changed is the combination of more and more evidence, from different places, and even more importantly, explicit official rhetoric /1
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
10 months
Why is everyone cheering Sweden's NATO deal? Don't people realize that NATO expansion is a dangerous escalation and Putin might retaliate by invading Ukraine?
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
I have never seen so many Russians so scared of fire safety violations
@JayinKyiv
Jay in Kyiv
2 years
24 hours later, still traffic jam to leave Crimea
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
If you learned something, do something. Do and be proud of what you do and of learning from the past. And even though it is impossible to know, I hope my dead grandparents, great-grandparents, uncles and other relatives would be proud of what you do as well. Here, I said it.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
I know Russian. I have read a lot of Russian nationalist rhetoric in my life. This is not some wild intellectual fantasy, it is a clear, actionable statement of intent by a state agency. The UN definition is problematic, but in this case it fits like a glove
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
It does not have be on you. Speak up. Write. Protest. Not in abstract. In Germany. In German. Not against the war, it is not specific. Against your government doing so little to make a difference. Make noise, cause disturbance. People are dying. You can make a difference /7
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
When the FSB discover the safe house of those who blew up Dugina it will likely contain explosives, a 1975 map of Moscow, the Kobzar, a framed Zelensky portrait, a Saint Javelin patch, and an Economists for Ukraine T-shirt. All guarded by a fearsome shiba inu.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
This is not on you, of course. But something similar might happen now, already happening. This, in significant part, will be on you and because of you. Own it. Because for years you and your government financed and tolerated a deadly autocracy, made yourself dependent on it /3
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
This here is Kyiv, 1941. The city where my grandmother and many relatives lived. Some escaped, some haven't. If you are German, you of course know that Germans did it. Let's be more specific. Chances are, someone in your immediate or extended family been there and done that /2
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
And never tell me how wrong it was that some abstract Germans (though curiously, never your relatives) murdered dozens and dozens of mine in Ukraine simply because they were Jewish. If you are quiet now, you have learned nothing from history. At least nothing that matters /10
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Tolerated your former leaders corrupted by it. You financed it, allowed it to rise and largely remained silent. And when shit hit the fan you disengaged because really confronting evil would cause economic inconvenience you so greatly fear and because it would clash /4
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Whatever just happened in Crimea is very dangerous and might easily lead to immediate, substantial and potentially even nuclear escalation of rhetoric on Rossiya 1
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Where are all the op-eds by [insert name] urging Russia to come to its senses, sue for peace, negotiate, make painful but necessary territorial concessions, demilitarize and avoid unnecessary deaths etc. now when it'ss clear they can't win a war against far more superior force?
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Why you, of all people? Because if there is anyone Russians really care about, it is you. In the warped ethnic hierarchy of the world that exists in their brain you are up there at the top together with the French. And because you can grab them by the wallets and the ego /8
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
evidence that Bucha is not an exception. Each massacre might be local initiative, together they are a campaign. And most importantly, the RIA Novosti (a state outlet) piece is one of the most explicit statements of intent to destroy a national group as such that I've ever seen /5
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
With the smug feeling of moral superiority that comes from saying "we were wrong then," we learned to say "sorry" and look the other way, peace-negotiations-deescalation blah blah blah even when people are already dying. Killed by weapons your money bought /5
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
And then you will feel good about yourself by taking in refugees and reaping the benefits of human capital you did nothing to create and depriving the victim country of it. Because why do what is hard and feel emotional discomfort when you can delude yourself on the cheap /6
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Like no one can. And because, chances are, some of your relatives were in Kyiv in 1941 and you do not have to share their shame. If you are silent, disturbed but passive, never speak to me again. Don't invite for a talk or to write a chapter, don't ask to meet at conferences /9
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
On some level it is hard not to feel for Putin. So much time, effort and and money getting all your Orbans, Trumps, Berlusconis, Schroeders and Bibis in a row but it still boils down to whether Pasha from Ulan Ude will or will not be too drunk to drive a tank
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
The official legal definition of genocide is "acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such". When I teach genocide I start by saying that this definition has huge problems because it doesn't give us /2
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Kharkiv is return for investment. If Ukraine managed to be a fast learner, adaptive, creative, bold and witty under fire, just imagine what they can do in peacetime. If you have money to spare, invest in post-war Ukraine. That's the only business advise I will ever give to anyone
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
I had good reasons to hate Russian security services before. Now I am just exploding. I feel angry, I feel stupid, I feel naive, I feel tired. I got played. I had him in class. Twice, in fact. One class was half-Zoom during COVID, several interactions outside classroom
@PjotrSauer
Pjotr Sauer
2 years
Dutch intelligence agencies say that they have identified a Russian GRU agent who tried to intern at the ICC under a false Brazilian identity. They have also released his rather touching four-page cover letter
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Amnesty report is bad. But in the middle of this pileup can we please also notice that there likely is a human head. Impaled on a stick. In Popasna. In 2022. For God sake, don’t lose sight of what is important for the big picture. Amnesty isn’t, torture and medieval displays are
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
that doesn't start as genocide might evolve into one when conditions change. Russian invasion, in my view, did not start with clear genocidal intent, but evolved into one. Regime change and colonial subjugation are by themselves not enough to constitute genocide. Second, more /4
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
clear thresholds (what "in part" does even mean?) and because it is almost impossible to prove intent. People who carry out genocide are usually not idiots, if there are orders at all they would be given orally. But, several things are important to realize. First, something /3
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
a reference letter for the ICC. Given my research focus it made sense. I wrote him a letter. A strong one, in fact. Yes, me. I wrote a reference letter for a GRU officer. I will never get over this fact. I hate everything about GRU, him, this story. I am so glad he was exposed
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
10 months
Yes, we absolutely did pay for people being castrated, beheaded, having their heads smashed with sledgehammers and now the West wants to cancel our culture and traditional medieval values while we are fighting Nazis, which part of this doesn't make sense to you?
@maxseddon
max seddon
10 months
Putin says Wagner was entirely financed by the Russian state through the MOD and the state budget. From May 2022 to May 2023, the state paid Wagner 86 billion rubles and Prigozhin's catering company earned a further 80 billion, Putin says.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
In case anyone forgotten, helping Ukrainians defeat the invasion is the most effective way to help Russians avoid conscription.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
@zpaikin Two things. 1. Evidence over the weekend that Bucha is not an isolated incident and that it was done intentionally. 2. rhetoric coming out Russia, including official outlets. It denies that Ukraine should exist as national entity and that ordinary people need to be punished
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
10 months
I do hope that at some point we will have a public debate between Mearsheimer and Prigozhin on the origins of the war.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
We need a name for this mental affliction when the West forces you to do things you planned on doing anyway. Like invading Ukraine or taking Western weapons to resist invasion. I suggest Mearsheimer-Chomsky Syndrom. In most acute cases coincides with responsible statecraftitis.
@RussianEmbassy
Russian Embassy, UK
2 years
FM #Lavrov : West wants #Ukraine to triumph over #Russia on battlefield & will not allow 🇺🇦 to launch peace process, forcing Kiev to accept Western weapons, later used for bombarding cities and killing civilians. For the West, ideology is above caring about 🇺🇦 & European security.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
1 year
Really, really escalatory. Don't they realize that Russia might attack Kyiv in response, even bomb it?
@maxseddon
max seddon
1 year
Incredible footage of what Russia says was Ukraine's attempt to kill Putin in a drone strike last night
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
1 year
There was a reason for why people who drafted the UN genocide convention explicitly listed transfer of children from one group to another as genocidal act. Whether it feels or looks "genocidal enough" to a random person on the street is beside the point.
@maxseddon
max seddon
1 year
Two days after the US published a report claiming Russia has abducted at least 6,000 Ukrainian children, children's rights commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova tells Putin she "adopted" a 15-year-old from Mariupol herself. "All thanks to you, Vladimir Vladimirovich!"
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
The message of Odesa is that you don't negotiate. The message of Olenivka is that you don't surrender. What really happened in either case is really beside the point. And a box cutter to reinforce the message if someone still failed to fully internalize it.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Just did the most distinguished panel of my life w mayors of Bucha, Melitopol, Mariupol (online) and head of Kyiv regional civ-mil administration. Have never felt more meaningless and humbled as an academic. Bigger point: compromise, saving Putin's face, offramping are a delusion
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
1. Ukraine has the will, the resources and the capacity to fight. Even if Russia mobilizes every bear in Siberia and reindeer in Yakutia, Ukraine will keep fighting. Even if Russia uses nuclear weapons, Ukraine will keep fighting. I think this should clear to everyone by now 2/
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
RU used me because of genocide, because of Ukraine. They wanted to know, my only response is let everyone learn. So now I am 100% writing this book on RU genocide in UA that I was thinking about. It will be for a wide audience and it will be good. That’s my task now. Back to work
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Earlier this week a journalist asked me how this might end now, with the partial mobilization and referendums. I said that I don't see a realistic endgame scenario. Then I spent several days thinking about it. I still don't see it, at least not anytime soon. So, some thoughts 1/
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
10 months
I read about horrible things for a living but this is one of the most revolting things I read in a long while. It would have been easier to understand it if these people were driven by ideology or nationalism, but this is a pure mix of evil and cynicism.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
A question that emerged from several conversations. Visa bans will harm Putin's opponents. 100% true. Visa bans will make ordinary Russians more supportive of Putin. Possibly true. So it helps Putin. But if so, then why RU propaganda and elites are going crazy over this issue?
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
It will be over in a week or two. Not the war, the focus on the war. Something else will happen, the weather will get nicer, you will get exhausted, move on. If you care about UA but it is not personal for you, please act NOW. Donate, protest, call, scream. Next week is too late
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
10 months
Dear @KyivIndependent , I love and admire you guys. Really do. But this is a self-made disaster. Please stop. Also, history is not moral philosophy but if your only options are good or evil, do you really want to hear the answer?
@KyivIndependent
The Kyiv Independent
10 months
Was Stepan Bandera good or evil? In the last episode of Ukraine’s True History, we tackled the topic of Ukrainian nationalism in the 20th century, exploring its contentious yet significant role in paving the country’s way to freedom.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
8 months
Why did the moon try to join NATO in the first place?
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Expanded my arguments for the Washington Post. What we know now is not yet enough to prosecute people for genocide, but before we even get there we need to call a spade a spade. That’s what I am trying to do. Accountability next.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
The argument that Russians don't bear responsibility because it's an oppressive regime is weak. It is oppressive because Russian citizens for years allowed it to become one by staying out of politics in exchange for higher life standards. Autocracy was an outcome, not a given
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
8 months
For now, the best argument for why Russia won't lose is because it cannot lose. And it cannot lose because it is Russia. And so Russia ought to win because it cannot lose. If this doesn't seem reasonable to you are not realist enough. And a warmonger.
@ELuttwak
Edward N Luttwak
8 months
Ukraine cannot win-its forces cannot sweep the Russian army from the field. Putin cannot lose because a reversion to the status quo ante would lose him the Kremlin & then all. Needed: an all-out US diplomatic drive. Each US denial of something UKR wanted is a bargaining chip. Act
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
My class on violence in Russia, guess he already knew everything that was allowed and maybe not allowed to learn what is real. Took my class on genocide, apparently here the GRU still had a lot to learn. We haven’t discussed Russia even once. After the graduation he asked for
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
He had a weird accent I couldn’t identify, not a Russian one. Nothing Russian I could notice and I am a native speaker. Presented himself as Brazilian, Irish roots so weird accent made sense. Unlike this crazy cover letter, he was very smart and competent in class. He didn’t take
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Jokes aside (though NAFO expansion is serious business) just try to wrap your head around this: Minister of Defense transforms into a shiba inu on a second day of a major offensive. How the hell am I supposed to explain this to students? Also, maybe he knows something we don’t?
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
4. Even if there is a coup in Moscow, it will likely be done by those who think they know how to kill Ukrainians more effectively, not those who want peace. Even if they will agree to peace, there is no way they will agree give up Crimea and Ukraine won't accept such peace 5/
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
You see, the fight is existential so the mobilization will be partial.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
As expected, my claim that we see a genocide in Ukraine is being contested by several other scholars. That’s normal, that is what scholars do. What is more important is that even those who disagree with me (at least those views that I saw) and think that my genocide claim goes /1
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
I think options 3 and 4 are most likely outcomes but maybe there are other options that I haven't thought of. So, dear journalist, if you are reading this, it is my response beyond "I don't see how it ends".
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
6. Option 3: The large number reservists make the Russian army so ineffective that it collapses in the field. Option 4: There is a coup in Moscow that leads to chaos and loss of control which Ukraine uses to fully destroy the Russian army or the Russians collapse on their own 7/
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
@zpaikin So each individual Bucha and Mariupol theater might be *just* a war crime, not coordinated from above but the combination of 1 and 2 does make me believe that more than just war crimes are going on
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
It's absolutely mind-blowing that Germany's vision of historical moral responsibility prioritizes Russuan soldiers over Ukrainian civilians. Baffles me as a scholar of memory, as a Ukraine-born Jew and as a descendant of both Holocaust survivors and Red Army WWII veterans.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
This is the future of any provisional ceasefire or interim agreement. A strike every couple of weeks, no massive UA or Western support because it is just one strike and no one wants full war. But it is enough to make life miserable, drive investors away and prevent reconstruction
@olex_scherba
olexander scherba🇺🇦
2 years
14 missiles struck Kyiv tonight. The whole city heard. I was lying in bed and thinking: Whose life was destroyed now? Who will be next? How many lives is enough to give #Ukraine enough weapons fast enough? #StandWithUkraine #ArmUkraineNow #StopPutinNOW
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
9 months
There should be a reality show in which Kneissl, Snowden, Seagal, Ritter, Schroeder, Depardieu and some others move into a real Russian village and have to survive for a month. The winner gets to stay there forever and maybe even a paved road
@olex_scherba
olexander scherba🇺🇦
9 months
Apparently, putin’s dance partner Karin Kneissl moved to a village near 🇷🇺 Ryazan. “I was forced to leave Austria, wasn’t allowed to work in France. Had to flee from Europe… People helped me to get to Russia… I speak 8 languages, you know. Now I learn 🇷🇺…”.…
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
10 months
@jeff_hawn I said it many times before, I am on mission to fight nonsense with more nonsense
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
5. So where does this leave us? Option 1: Russia keeps sending people to be killed and Ukraine keeps killing them until Russia doesn't have anyone left to send. Option 2: There is a mutiny in the Russian army when enough get too tired of being killed 6/
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
I don't believe in collective guilt. I believe in individual guilt, which is a consequence of what one does or says. I do believe in collective responsibility for state actions. Even those actions one opposes. Because as a citizen you could have always done more and chose not to.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Does anyone still need any additional arguments for serious investment in history, area studies, social sciences and HIMARS?
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
2. Russia has the will and the resources to fight, there are still unmobilized bears in Siberia, reindeer in Yakutia and people willing to go fight in the provinces. Human life is cheap in Russia, especially outside Moscow 3/
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Great choices, bad combination, wrong year
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
3. Even after mobilizing every single reservist Russia won't be able to win and Ukraine refuses to lose. Frozen conflict is impossible with Russia's existing troop levels and unsustainable by relying on costly, poorly trained and unmotivated reservists who would rather be home 4/
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
@OxanaShevel The least I can do. Spent yesterday talking to my childhood best friend in L'viv about how many matrasses we might fit into our place if they need to escape. It is so fucked up. And curiously, not even growing up in Israel, where war is constant prepared me for now
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Norman Naimark entered the discussion. At this stage pretty much all leading Western historians of violence in Eastern Europe that I can think of agree that genocide is a reasonable description of Russian violence against civilians in Ukraine
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
A daily reminder that “forcibly transferring children of the group to another group” are acts explicitly covered by the genocide convention when there is an intent to destroy a national group as such, in whole or in part.
@KevinRothrock
Kevin Rothrock
2 years
All babies born in the Kherson region after February 24, as well as all orphans now residing in the area, are hereby automatically issued Russian citizenship, says Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Russian-backed Kherson Military-Civilian Administration.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Israeli mediation turned out to be at best a flop, at worst Putin's influence op. Public opinion in IL and among Jews in the West is clearly pro-Ukraine. Yet almost noone prominent in the Jewish world is pressuring IL to join the sanctions. Neither does the US gvt. I don't get it
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Just got an email from a media fact checker evaluating Putin's speech. They need help. They really do. I feel for them but have no idea where to start and what to say. This speech need psychoanalysis, not fact checking
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
11 months
Rumer articulates what many of us are arguing for a while. Even if this started as just Putin's invasion, by now Russia as a whole owns it. The earlier Western and Russian liberals accept it, the better. The goal is not to defeat Putin, but to stop Russia
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
1 year
Wouldn't it be nice if after nine months of war RU liberal opposition could finally decide among themselves what exactly do they oppose and spare us the psychodrama of actively not figuring it out
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
10 months
I envy all my friends and colleagues who already published their Ukraine war books. They will not have to explain *this*
@maxseddon
max seddon
10 months
Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov: – charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus – Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD – Wagner fighters who did take part not charged – No word on potential MOD leadership changes
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
reached this conclusion and decided that I am comfortable standing by it, there was no other option than saying what I think. Yes, it is good scholarship to wait for more data. But believing that a genocide is happening and waiting for more data before speaking up? No way
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
10 months
@jwcreighton3 @SAISHopkins I wish it was funny, though. Alas, this escalation mantra has real impact and because it's a religious belief no empirical argument can harm it. So I am just taking stuff ad absurdum the best I can
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
This is from Kherson, no translation needed. That is exactly what I meant earlier in the war when I complained that the voice of scholars of insurgency is missing from the conversation. An urban insurgency is already here and it is not going away. We know how Russian COIN looks
@OdessaUnews
OdesaUnews
2 years
Херсонцы не сдаются рашистам Вот такие плакаты встречают оккупантов на каждом столбе в городе. Херсон - это Украина!
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
8 months
Beyond the conspiracy theorism what is key here is the part about the anti-human essence of the Ukrainian statehood as a whole. This is not Solovyev or Medvedev, this is the Putin. Dehumanization and genocide go together. Which other evidence of intent does anyone need?
@k_sonin
Konstantin Sonin
8 months
Putin today: "The Western masters placed an ethnic Jew, a person with Jewish roots, at the head of Ukraine and this is how, in my opinion, they cover up the anti-human essence that is the foundation of the modern Ukrainian state." Putin forced me out of my country and put me on…
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
@golub Yep. And that's actually the aspect we don't talk enough about. Any successful Ukrainian attack, at the end of the day, is Ukrainian land and infrastructure that gets hit and it is Ukraine that will have to deal with it once Russians are kicked out.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
On September 17, 1939 the USSR launched its special military operation against Poland, thus dooming the Polish army’s ability to keep fighting the Nazis. Eagerly waiting for Simonyan, Zakharova and all antifascist tankies worldwide to commemorate this remarkable Soviet achievment
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Not a military analyst but I've served long enough and read widely enough to know that few things destroy military performance as quietly yet effectively as unmotivated reservists. Good luck to RU political officers making yesterday's civilians all worked up to die for Melitopol
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
10 months
If history is any guide, there are several futures for Prigozhin in Belarus: 1. He is thrown into a dungeon, blinded and starved to death 2. He overthrows the local chieftain and marches on Moscow again 3. At some point Lukashenka puts him on a train 4. History is not a guide
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
8 months
Happy Ribbentrop-Molotov Day to all the De-Nazification-Russia-Never-Invaded-Anyone-Soviet-Union-Was-A-Progressive-Utopia people out there!
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
10 months
Not to get too ahead of events, but if Prigozhin does defeat the Kremlin it will be an extreme right, neo-Nazi, violent and illegitimate coup that automatically entitles Ukraine to a referendum in Belgorod. It is how it is, I don't make the rules.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
1 year
Got angry about all those calls for diplomacy now, at any cost and wrote a thing. Call me a warmonger. Or a realist (as in, one focused on reality, not abstracts). Also: forcing diplomacy when timing is wrong means harming its chances when timing is right
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Interestingly, there is serious discussion on whether there would be a nuclear war, or a coup in Moscow, but I haven't seen anything comparable on how likely is a civil war in Russia beyond some abstract talk about decolonization that somehow magically arrives from somewhere
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
If we survive 2022, 2023 might easily become a wave year that will make 1989 a child's play. Just imagine all those who will likely go down if Iran and Putin do, from Orban to Assad to Maduro. Ukraine is the key to this all. And yes, I am already scared of what I wish for.
@bctallis
Benjamin Tallis 🇺🇦
2 years
If this is the case then it’s the beginning of the end for #Iran ’s vile regime. A couple of weeks ago people were no longer afraid to protest. Having security services allowing protest is an important next step. Having them join the protest is a revolutionary step.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
1 year
With so many Ukrainians celebrating Christmas in December it is possible that some years from now, maybe even earlier it will still be uncommon but already acceptable to write Ukrainian in Latin script. 2022 Ukraine is constructivism on steroids.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
1 year
For the thousandth time, can we please stop infantilizing Russia and Russians. They have agency. They make choices and have responsibility for choices they make. Both the elites and the citizens. Treat Russia seriously either if you want to defeat Russia or have a better Russia.
@tikhondzyadko
Tikhon Dzyadko
1 year
@Rigaskrabis Russia is obviously under occupation. But the thing is that these digits are being drawn in the same room - administration of president of RF, and they could not be trusted.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
11 months
Genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such: (d) Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group Looks like they are going through the whole list one by one
@JimmySecUK
Jimmy Rushton
11 months
We heard from a source in the Ukrainian government this was happening last year. "Hundreds" of prisoners of war had been returned, alive, but castrated. We didn't report this at the time, as it was deemed it could add to the trauma the men had suffered.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
11 months
Just a reminder that this was done in area that Russia considers its own territory, to people it insists are Russian subjects. It is also the region “that stop the war/freeze the conflict/NATO expansion” crowd wants Ukraine to give up on.
@maxseddon
max seddon
11 months
The enormous Kakhovka dam, which spans frontlines across the Dnipro river in southern Ukraine, has been blown up. The flooding could submerge areas downstream, putting parts of Kherson (controlled by Ukraine) and the nearby Zaporizhzhiya power plant (held by Russia) at risk.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
11 months
"Armistice would leave Ukraine ... without all its territory. But the country would have the opportunity to recover economically." I would love see those making this argument to investing their own money in Ukraine that has a frozen conflict and no NATO.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
2 years
Also quotes Victoria Nuland's claim that Putin commits a genocide and agrees. Openly, nonchalantly, happily even. Usually the hardest part in determining genocide is proving intent. I am sure they know how easy they are making this for us now. They just don't give a damn
@JuliaDavisNews
Julia Davis
2 years
More genocidal talk on Russian state TV: pundit agrees that Putin's goal is to erase the very idea of being a Ukrainian. He finds even the name, "Ukrainians," to be an insult and sees no reason for that entire nation or nationality to exist outside of "Russian" identity.
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
10 months
Wagner has already achieved a strategic victory. But in the long run this conflict is unwinnable. Prigozhin will not defeat RU and RU army is incapable of major offensives. We need a negotiated settlement that recognizes this reality and protect the rights of Russian speakers
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@eugene_finkel
Eugene Finkel
1 year
Theories have consequences. Mearsheimer is the Gerasimov of international relations. A theory that's intellectually powerful, proudly cynical, creates a cult but doesn't survive encounter with reality. Gerasimov, though, never authored a Doctrine and doesn't cosplay Machiavelli
@michaelsobolik
Michael Sobolik
1 year
John Mearsheimer, in an interview with CCP media, claims there’s “no evidence” of Russian imperialism in Ukraine, but sees plenty of evidence for “NATO expansionism.”
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