James Rands
@james_rands
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Ex-squaddie with a philosophy degree. Professional intelligence analyst (views my own not employers) Occasionally talks about Ukraine. Sub-par boxer.
Royal Tunbridge Wells, England
Joined February 2015
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Terrible pro-Russian arguments and why they don't work thread of threads. Feel free to use these as rebuttals to the nonsense pro-Russian commentators keep using.
(I actually wrote this because I got fed up with making the same points in the megathread)
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I am picking up rumours of significant logistics issues for advancing Ukrainian forces. This actually looks quite serious. They may be running out of Ukrainian flags to raise over liberated towns.
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I am baffled by Westerners supporting Russia at the moment. (Generally actually but specifically at the moment) They seem to fall into a few categories:
1. Communists! Honestly, if you're a grown adult and you're still a tankie that's actually really cringeworthy, but...
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Anyway, this won't convince anyone who supports Russia, because there's a moral or intellectual failing there and probably both, but remember if the hard-left and hard-right agree on something it's almost certainly very, very wrong.
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The last group seem to be bloody-minded contrarians; folk who "do their own research" and "don't trust the MSM". If you think reading reputable newspapers or watching reputable TV news and then just saying the opposite is clever you're an idiot.
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have you noticed how the Russian leadership aren't communists anymore and haven't been for over a generation?
Once upon a time communists could cite this global struggle between communism and the West and kid themselves Russia was standing up for the weak and oppressed...
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doesn't make the society Nazi. And the claims of Nazism in Ukraine are pretty weak in reality - lots of references to the Asov battalion and quite often photos which are actually of Russians.
Because Russia has a serious Neo-Nazi and they're integrated into the establishment.
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The thing about that is for all the posturing and macho recruiting adverts and homophobia and bigotry and not letting women into the Armed Forces the Russians have turned out to be rubbish at fighting. If your worldview is might is right Russia's a terrible role model.
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It was a pretty crass claim at the time, but now it's just nonsensical.
2. Ultra-left supposed anti-fascists. These are the same people but some are claiming they are primarily anti-Nazi. Now Ukraine has an issue with neo-Nazis like many countries do. But spotting a Nazi...
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Wagner Group have that name for a reason.
3. The hard-right. Some of them rather like the fact that Russia has a Neo-Nazi tendency, but they're mostly attracted by the ultra-masculine ultra-tough non-PC Russian Army.
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Will the Russian military or the Russian state collapse first?
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I started watching
#NAFO
with a degree of professional and personal curiosity but I absolutely love this phenomenon apart from two things
1. The occasional falling outs (inevitable I guess) and..
2. I now know who Andrew Koryblywoo is.
Oh and the scary fish guy - that’s unusual
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Which means (if accurate) intelligence officers around the world are currently briefing superiors off a map on which the Ukrainians have clearly drawn a massive cock and balls going into the Russian front.
If that was deliberate bravo you magnificent scoundrels.
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Two Russian missiles strike Poland and kill two Polish civilians. Excuses like "err actually it was Ukrainian air defence" just don't cut it.
Russia has three choices:
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@JJCE2016
@ThreshedThought
I think one of Russia's problems is they have a national myth about being rescued in their darkest hour by a brutal Winter which destroys the invader. In their heads they are the ones who survive the Winter and their adversaries fail. You know like in Finland.
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I have now seen a map which purports to show the path of the Ukrainian advance in Kherson. There's a bulge in the line with two pockets and a long curving line where they've carried out a deep penetration into Russian lines.
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@mtracey
"all the top nuclear experts have announced we're in something like red-alert Cuban Missile Cris territory"
I know some of the top nuclear experts and none of them speak that way. You agreeing with someone doesn't make them a "top expert".
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2. If they are stupid they obfuscate and try and blame everyone else and refuse to accept any responsibility. This is already what they're doing. This is NATO Article 4 territory.
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1. If they were sensible they would apologise profusely, immediately undertake an investigation, offer some access to Polish/NATO investigators and commit not to firing any weapon systems within x miles of the border until the investigation reports back. They won't do that.
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3. If they are very stupid they double down and taunt Poland (some of their media have already begun that) and suggest that their missiles don't miss, this is message etc... In which case we're Article 5 territory.
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How to spot terrible Ukraine/War/Strategy analysis
Last night I said I was thinking about doing a deep dive into the Russian mobilisation and/or a guide on how to spot really bad takes on military matters.
I am not going to pretend I was overwhelmed with responses but....
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I am entering a highly secretive meeting. I am turning off my phone. I accept Bob is nice
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@MarkUrban01
I heard that when we went to reoccupy the British Embassy in Kabul after the fall of the Taliban to guys doing the recce were met by an old gardener who opened up for them and had been looking after the place since it was abandoned in whatever year that was.
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When I was at Sandhurst I remember being told there's no point joining the infantry unless it's the Paras or Royal Irish because 16 Air Assault Brigade are the only people who get to go anywhere.
30 days after commissioning 9/11 happened.
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That moment when you realise that only squaddies with a very puerile sense of humour are likely to see what you're seeing.
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@PLnewstoday
Tell me you have no idea about military issues without saying you have no idea about military issues.
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@simpatico771
Russia doesn't have "hypersonic missiles". It has some missiles which can fly very fast (as does every nuclear power and anyone who has sent anything into space) but that's not what we mean when we talk about "hypersonic missiles".
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@iAmTheWarax
Initial objective: seize Kyiv, decapitate government (literally) divide country into client & rump state
Revised obj: seize Southern corridor & Donbas
Rev (2) obj: seize Donbas
Rev (3) obj: seize Luhansk
Rev (4) obj: seize a bit of Luhansk
Rev (5) obj: defeat cartoon dog online
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@mtracey
I actually knew a guy who flew the refuellers for the B52s in the Cuban Missile Crisis and I remember him telling a group of us about how they had to get everything airborne right now because this really could be it.
Nothing remotely similar has happened.
Nothing!
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@DavidSacks
"Some intelligence analysts" is not "the intelligence community"
"20-25%" is not "25%"
Use of tactical nuclear weapon is not what's understood by "nuclear war".
If you're worried about nuclear war stop talking it up, because doing so sends the message the threat works.
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@Trollstoy88
The journalist John Sweeney was there today and could walk around the town centre so this time has even less credibility than the last thirty odd times you've claimed it.
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@firstnamerando
@schwererlimier
@Lauren_Southern
This shouldn't really need explaining but...
1. Free speech does not include the right to just say absolutely anything without consequences. Even a free-speech absolutist gets that.
2. Freely saying an entire nation are "subhuman" is in the category of having consequences.
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@Havoc_Six
The thing I don't get about this is, if she wants to dismiss women as not being safe to fly planes, why would I take Candace Owens' view seriously?
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@ThreshedThought
In the South it's been reported they've moved the whole of their regional reserves up into the frontline. It's a stupid move but they're spread so thin they might not have much other choice.
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@DVATW
What is the point of this post?
If it is supposed to indicate he isn't a war leader, it's a non-sequitur, but we also have sufficient evidence to judge him as a war leader based upon his actually doing it.
If this is embarrassing how much more embarrassing is it to lose to him?
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@StDee4
It’s fairly obvious that this is incompetence on the part of the Russia so unless the Russians double down it would be hard to get consensus for article 5. But I think there will be a general desire for more robust action. More weapons! More air defence! Red lines given!
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@JamesPorrazzo
"Why does Wagner Group excel at war?"
It doesn't. It's really bad at fighting an enemy who can fight back.
"Because it attracts men who love war."
The majority of recent recruits just want to get out of prison and a lot of them are only doing it for the HIV treatments.
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@ArtyomLukin
You realise (actually you probably don’t) that this is a repudiation of a Russian foreign policy not of Ukraine. If Russia expects “due respect” from neighbouring states it is Russian pride which caused this war.
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This may sound bold but I think from this point onwards (well actually from maybe a week ago onwards) the war in Ukraine will see no Russian victories and on any meaningful scale only Ukrainian success.
When I say that, I don't discount the possibility of Russians...
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@CalibreObscura
The good news for him is that quite a lot of those ERA boxes have been found without any explosive content. Otherwise....
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@CosmicSkeptic
I watched it all and he was being arrogant and over-bearing from the start, but I think he realized he’d argued himself in to a corner with that weird claim were cannabis legal every professional whose actions could endanger another would need to be tested daily.
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This account is getting a little bigger. It is slightly surreal to see people who clearly followed me for the Ukraine/wider defence coverage liking posts about Tunbridge Wells Borough Council expenditure and boundary changes.
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@BowesChay
The video goes on for an hour and this is from a portion where he talks about a single bad officer who the soldiers got removed. He talks about how they transitioned from this rather chaotic set-up with some "traitors" (the word he uses) to something much more effective.
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@mtracey
What you may not grasp is that Biden (regardless of your personal view of him) is a reasonably clever and very experienced politician advised by some very clever people and they’re agreed Russian overtures which require Biden to come to them asking for talks….
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I understand Andrew Koroblywoo has had his Twitter account locked. That’s a shame. Actually come to think of it it’s at least six months overdue.
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@mcribbHistory
As a counterpoint to literally everyone saying CSgt Bourne, my recollection is Daniel Craig was very good as the Platoon Sergeant in The Trench 1999.
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@EvanMcFarlane
I recall a former commander of mine talking about the period of staff college they spent in Washington. they were put up in a hotel which had a happy hour from 5-7pm with free drinks. After the Brit officers arrived they closed it down.
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@mtracey
Or - and hear me out here - the difference is actually really significant, well understood by anyone qualified to talk about it’s battlefield role or the impact it’s likely to make in Ukraine - but you don’t understand it and maybe don’t have anything useful to add on the subject
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I can see for the next few weeks we're going to see an endless stream of Vatniks and Peaceniks and contrarians demanding to know:
"If the ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin why not for Bush and Blair. Yeah they're totally war criminals"
There's a lot you can say, but...
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Basically it's because no matter how much you dislike them and how much you disapprove of their foreign policy neither ever sat down opposite the Child Catcher General and did a TV interview in which they congratulated each other for committing the war crime of abducting children
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@mtracey
Are not good faith invitations to negotiate a just and lasting peace but rather a flex to demonstrate that they can call the shots by getting him to do what they want. He is calling their bluff and ensuring they are seen to be negotiating with a weak hand. This is diplomacy.
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@mtracey
Does that include people who spent the last twelve months portraying it as a US proxy war against Russia?
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I make that 11 votes military to 5 votes state (but quite a lot of people have effectively said both simultaneously) so that's a fact now.
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@FreeUkraine91
That is utterly surreal. There are several known and uncontested facts about the Kherson region.
1. The Russians have about 25,000 troops West of the Dniepr.
2. The bridges have been rendered inoperable making withdrawal, reinforcement or resupply incredibly difficult.
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@blackintheempir
Did Russia beat Ukraine a long time ago when:
They failed to take Kyiv
They lost Kharkiv
They failed to capture the whole Donbas or
When they were forced out of Kherson?
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(It's also what my old CO said under bombardment before confirming we were going on the offensive)
The Americans call them the greatest generation. We all grew up under their shadow. And the Queen was the link to that time when a country decided to do the right thing and fight..
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@BrennpunktUA
I have just retweeted this but couldn't add my comment. If this is true (and that's a big if) this could be very significant. It's likely the first time a really sizeable force has been cut-off and it's largely Wagner Group.
@ThreshedThought
AFU may be reading your tweets.
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@GeromanAT
So different people spontaneously decided to lay flowers own the tank and they all chose roses cut to the same length with leaves left on?
Aren't the Russians supposed to be good at propaganda - couldn't even be bothered to send their lackeys to a couple of different florists!
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I posted this last night. As morning is now here there are some things we can say with near total certainty.
1. The hospital was in fact not hit. The hospital car park was hit. You can make a semantic argument that this is part of the hospital and that's fine but, it makes it...
Regarding who hit the hospital in the Gaza Strip:
I've seen the same footage you have.
I go on the telly as a defence expert.
I don't know.
Nor do you.
Just sayin'.
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1c. Strategic and tactical used wrongly
The Prussian military theorist Karl von Clausewitz defined tactics as how one fights and wins battles and strategy is how you employ battles to win wars. Strategy is the top level stuff. It's not take that hill or even...
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4b The expert on everything
You cannot be an expert on everything.
4c The crypto expert
Some people seem to think knowledge of cryptocurrency or other kind of bro topics translates into a deep understanding of military affairs
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@mtracey
That really doesn’t make your point. It starts a tank is defined more by function than anything else. Yes! Which is why IFVs and SPGs aren’t tanks.
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@GeromanAT
So firstly Russian is not "banned" in Ukraine and secondly, as I sit here in the garden of England reading a Russian propagandist claiming those who speak language x belong to country x, I am tempted to google how many English speakers there are in the world.
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there were a few and the one people were more interested in was spotting the bad analysis. Now there's a bit of a problem with this. I read a War Studies bachelors and spent 17 years in the regular Army and I now work as an analyst so I spot it quickly, but how do you do it?
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@firstnamerando
@schwererlimier
@Lauren_Southern
(Now you can very reasonably say that evil and racist views are in and of themselves heinous but not a just grounds for a death sentence, but there's an obvious caveat here.)
3. She was pronouncing aggressive hate-speech simultaneously with her country invading a neighbour and..
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1b. Pull-back as a noun
Troops pull back to positions, but they do so as part of a withdrawal or they retreat. One particular "analyst" loves referring to "tactical pullbacks" which just aren't a thing.
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@tomhfh
In which Tom Harwood reveals he does not understand Free Movement isn't the same as Schengen.
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2. Biased source
This is a difficult one, because let's be honest we've all picked a side. If you've read this far, you've definitely picked a side. Having a bias doesn't mean what you say is necessarily wrong but it's incumbent upon analysts to try and be objective.
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Partly the purpose of jargon is to exclude others and reinforce the club, but it also serves a really important function. Words have very specific meanings and in the military we learn them and we know them. If my boss tells me to destroy a position I know he means I am to...
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1d. Referring to all armoured vehicles as tanks
Most armoured vehicles aren't tanks. I haven't seen a lot of this in Ukraine to be fair.
1e. Elite forces
Not everyone's elite. More or less by definition most troops aren't. If every unit mentioned is elite that's a red flag.
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So four guys (who on balance of probabilities are merchant bankers in civilian life) who've just made fools of a regular army formation have to get up and rather sheepishly report that they are the enemy but they're not playing any more because they need to go home.
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(Quite a lot of my followers have spent at least as long in the Armed Forces so that wasn't for you)
1. Language
This is the one that's obvious if you're immersed in the subject. Every academic discipline, every profession, every trade has its own vocabulary.
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That's my eight tips. I am not sure how useful any of that is but if you have other tips to add maybe add to the thread below.
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There is a reason why they get Ukraine wrong. My experience of dealing with them in politics is they make everything very ideological. I have had arguments with these folk where they concede they are wrong and then carry on making the same argument.
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@shareGBP
So two air defence missiles went 6 miles inside Poland because they missed their targets. That would pretty much require the Russian missiles to have been in Polish air space. Even were these air defence missiles they’d only be triggered were they firing on a target.
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I think the way to think about is that if you're not either defining your end goals or at the very least shaping them you're not at that level.
And so if people start talking about the "strategically vital town of..." they're probably talking out of their bottom.
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at the end of February they were debating amongst themselves whether Ukraine's future should be measured in days or hours, then when Russian forces collapsed North of Kyiv they were telling us it was a regrouping and the whole operation had been a feint
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Putin is this genius figure and terribly strong and tough, so he couldn't have an army that's fleeing they must be performing some incredibly clever rouse and that proves that Putin is really clever and tough.
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We all see the world through a lens of our own experience & preconceptions but they really filter information. Everything is about their overarching worldview so they see it from that perspective and once it fits that perspective it becomes evidence for that perspective.
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@Viking_Sarah_1
My first degree is War Studies and my second is philosophy. I work in the defence sector talking about technology so the first one definitely. When I discuss artificial intelligence I get reminded no one wants to hear my philosophical musings on whether AI can achieve personhood.
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Thinking through some implications for the next reserves weekend I am running and was reminded of this story.
I was a trooper in the Honourable Artillery Company in the nineties. The HAC had (still has but in a more limited way) a role for stay behind observation posts (OPs).
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There are a few towns that are genuinely strategically important. Kherson is because Russia has invested so much in it, both in terms of the combat power and reputation. But a village with a pre-war population of 15 sitting next to a B-road is just not strategically significant.
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3. Sources who are always just wrong
It is worth noting that sometimes really good analysts get it wrong because the information they had to work with was wrong or limited. But some people spent January and most of February assuring us Russia wasn't going to invade, then...
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take that range of hills. It's how we do we organise the Armed Forces, state industry and our international alliances to bring about the succession of battles we need to achieve our top level objectives.
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I feel horribly conflicted today.
I am British and I grew up in the aftermath of WW2. My grandparents were adults during the war. Both grandfathers were firemen in London in the Blitz. My mother's father used to go up in a crow's nest with a map and compass...
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Some of these people will have a come to Jesus moment and reassess what they're doing with their lives and why they always get it wrong but they probably won't do it today. It's okay to just dismiss some of these sources as being bad at what they do.
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