Heiko Wimmen
@heiko_wimmen
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Project Director Iraq, Syria, Lebanon @CrisisGroup Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
Beirut, Lebanon
Joined May 2017
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@Mohamad_IPS
Dozens of studies, same depressing consistency. & much of the damage gets done way before college, even where free public education supposedly improves equal access. For an absolutely IDENTICAL dictation, Max & Murat get different grades.
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Last month, my wife, who is Lebanese and has been a permanent resident in Austria for some 20yrs, was thrown out by her local bank there. A thread about first-hand experience with European "liberalism", "compliance" and "governance".
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German public TV cancels screening of Palestinian movie "Wajib" for the sole reason that it is, well, Palestinian. True to the current German form: Abdication of responsibility dressed up as "dealing with the past".
Die ARD cancelt einen preisgekrönten palästinensischen Film, in dem es noch nicht mal um Politik geht, und zwar offenkundig einzig und allein weil er palästinensisch ist - ja, das ist schändlich und schockierend.
Der Text von Arno Frank: via
@derspiegel
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Open letter by 100 Jewish intellectuals living in Germany criticising the suppression of expressions of support for the people of Gaza: "To deny the right to public expressions of grief for lives lost in Gaza does not make Jews safe".
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48 hrs after arrival in Beirut, and still no result for the mandatory pcr on arrival (that passengers pay for). What's the point?
@firassabiad
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There is, of course, no legal basis whatsoever to take away anyone's passport under any pretext, as the people pushing this are perfectly aware. The real, barely concealed purpose is to symbolically eject them from the national community and make them legitimate targets.
This is a shocking new level of hate-mongering from tabloid Bild. What's this girl's crime? She posted an instagram post with the hashtag from the rivers to the sea. Honestly this level of targeted harassment will endanger her and should be illegal.
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@Mohamad_IPS
That's dictation, where there should be as little room for bias as there is in math, one would think. A mistake is a mistake no matter the name, or not? One doesn't even want to think about essays, or job applications that require pictures.
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If only the people who believe Hizbollah must be at the centre of everything that goes wrong in Lebanon could give it a break for a day. Mismanagement, incompetence and corruption has been the teamwork of all political forces over 3 decades. Yes, all means all.
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🇱🇧 Lira falling to new record lows, near 34,000 to the $. That's where it was on 12 Jan when the Central Bank stepped in and started pumping $ into the market, bringing the rate down to 20K in 2 weeks. This temporary "stabilization" has now been completely reversed.
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"Government-funded" obviously means very different things in New Zealand and Germany than in, say, Russia, China or much of the Arab World.
Radio New Zealand says “government-funded” label does not reflect broadcaster’s editorial independence
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This is only the beginning. Unless someone stops Assad.
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As Israel seems to prepare for a ground assault in Gaza, the big question is: will the conflict spread? All eyes are on Hizbollah, which has been in a precarious balance of deterrence with Israel for more than a decade. A summary of our new piece: (1/11)
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Salameh has opened the $$-spigot again, & lira improves from 37 to 27K in less than 24 hrs. Last time round, that operation cost 2 billion. If there is one point of consistency, it's the determination to burn everything to the ground rather than change.
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In Lebanon, a 2nd disaster is building: 2nd wave of Corona is out of control. The population has no reserves left to bear a new lockdown, and the authorities have lost the credibility required to impose it. Those parts of the medical system accessible to the poor are collapsing.
٤.١ إن الارتفاع المستمر و السريع في عدد المرضى الذين يعانون من #كورونا في 🇱🇧 مقلق للغاية. هل نواجه خيارًا بين فقدان السيطرة تمامًا أو الإغلاق التام؟ بالنسبة لخبراء الصحة العامة ، هذا السؤال وإجابته واضحان. هل المجتمع أو السلطات جاهزون؟
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Hizbollah attacked Shtula, killing one. That's outside the occupied Shebaa Farms, in Israel proper. Meaning, one notch up on the escalation ladder. A small notch, but on this, such details matter hugely.
A 2nd front may not mean all-out war. Hizbollah may gradually raise the conflict’s costs for Israel. They may hope that the danger of regional war will spur outside actors, like Russia and China, into making assertive efforts to arrest the conflict. 10/11
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5 & 6 November mark a new level of escalation on the Israeli-Lebanese border. Both sides are now hitting up to 25 kilometers deep into enemy territory. Widening the theater increases the danger of causing casualties that will compel the other side to respond. A thread (1/9)
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Hariri Resignation: where do we go from here
(thread)
(1) If the Prime Minister resigns, the government is history, whatever the parties involved in it think about it. The president of the republic has no constitutional authority to reject or accept.
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To conclude: if you have a funny middle name and a dodgy passport, better get more than one European bank account. Avoid transfers to and from dodgy places (like, your home country). If you need to, get friends with names that are beyond suspicion to do them for you.
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@JulianRoepcke
Erstaunlich viel dünne Haut bei einer Truppe die sonst soviel Selbstsicherheit ausstrahlt. Fehler zugeben & daraus lernen kann ein Zeichen von Souveränität & eine Quelle von Respekt sein. Die Option wird in diesen Tagen gründlich versiebt.
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With Saud Al-Qahtani now exposed, diplo sources finally confirm what everybody in Lebanon knew all along: Prime Minister Saad Hariri was kidnapped, manhandled and intimidated into resigning by a close adviser to the Saudi Crown prince.
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@CjvHenderson
Next time anyone detects a new variant, they may think twice before raising the alarm.
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Within less than a month, ICU capacity in Germany boosted by 35 percent, now standing at nearly 20 times the number of Corona patients currently in need of intensive care, (2000+). There are 30,000 available ventilators. The system will hold up.
Die Zahl der Intensivbetten in 🇩🇪 ist mittlerweile um 12.000 auf 40.000 erhöht worden, es gibt 30.000 Beatmungsgeräte. Aktuell liegen 2139
#Corona
-Patienten auf der Intensivstation. Wir leben in einem unglaublich großartigen Land.
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If anybody wonders what the fire bombing of Lebanese banks and this night's violence is about.
Once the dollar hits 4500 (could be tomorrow), all Lira earners will have lost 2/3 of their effective income. That includes the police men deployed to control these protests.
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@lavern_spicer
🇩🇪 took 800,000 Syrians, and we are doing fine. Their sons & daughters are already preparing to become our next generation of inventors. Biontech was created by immigrants. Once upon a time, your country too was made great by immigration.
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Good reading for those who just can't believe that the owner of the ship carrying the nitrate would abandon vessel, crew and freight just like that. Happens all the time. At least 438 times since 2004. And many cases remain unreported.
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Lebanese Banks receive $$ from the Central Bank & sell them to a chosen clientele @ 22,000, while the market rate is @ 24,000. Thought the time of easy money in 🇱🇧 was over? For the well-connected, there are always profits to be made from people's misery.
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Lebanese Research Company InfoPro:
since October 17, 2019, more than 160,000 jobs have been temporarily or permanently lost and ten percent of all companies have ceased or suspended their operations
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Damning report. Lebanon would rather risk a major air disaster than hire too many Muslim air traffic controllers. Current staffing less than 20% of required level.
Exclusive: An inspection of Beirut's Rafic Hariri International Airport has shed light on inadequate safety measures that require urgent action
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Lebanese sites should really stop calling spikes in the $$ rate (@ 111,000 now) "mad increase" (ارتفاع جنوني). It's entirely expected, and perhaps still only the beginning. The madness is that after 3½ years, nothing has been done about it.
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Or rather: "We exercise our contractual right to end the business relation with you". It's free enterprise, you know, and nobody can be obliged to deal with clients who have funny middle names and get uppity enough to involve lawyers.
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The biggest Lebanese denomination (100,000 Lira) is now worth $ 3.
Soon enough, Lebanese money will be weighed rather than counted.
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After 2 weeks of fighting & multiple casualties on both sides, how close are we to an all-out war between Hizbollah and Israel? For now, everything seems to depend on how the ground offensive in Gaza will go. 1/7
Read Crisis Group's analysis of scenarios for Hizbollah to intervene in the war:
Deterrence between Israel and Hizbollah Must Hold
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This question shows a serious lack of information on the Lebanese internal discourse. It also misreads what HA is currently doing. Both are very dangerous in the current moment. Since Lebanese are, by law, not allowed to answer questions from an Israeli, I will try. Thread:
🇱🇧 Dear Lebanese friends and followers: since I don't follow your internal discourse, is there anyone raising alarm against what seems like Hezbollah's suicidal intent do go into an all-out, unprovoked, war with Israel? Because that's clearly where it's heading
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Surprise, surprise: World Bank will not authorize credit for 🇱🇧 to buy Egyptian gas & Jordanian electricity for the time being.
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@Streitapfel
@CjvHenderson
@Ziya_Meral
How do we know that the numbers in South Africa are significantly higher than elsewhere? Has systemic screening for omicron even started in the EU? Are incoming travellers screened for it at all if they are NOT coming from southern Africa?
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20,000 in 24 hrs.
Guess it's time to arrest some money changers, block some platforms, and complain how foreigners support refugees.
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@ArtyomLukin
Serious question: do you think the war, thus far, has resulted in a net loss or gain of respect & prestige for Russia?
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Die israelische Botschaft attackiert meine ehemalige Kollegin Muriel Asseburg, eine Forscherin von höchster Integrität. Der Eindruck drängt sich auf dass sachliche & fundierte Kritik an 🇮🇱 Besatzungspolitik diskreditiert werden soll.
Muriel Asseburg ist eine ausgewiesene und angesehene Nahost-Expertin. Die aktuellen Unterstellungen und persönlichen Diffamierungen weisen wir zurück. Wir unterstützen unsere langjährige Kollegin vorbehaltlos und erwarten Respekt und Höflichkeit im Umgang.
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This is ignorant on so many levels. As a post-war-born German, I am forever grateful to those who broke the back of Nazi Germany. And most of the credit must go to the 10 million who died fighting for the Soviet Union. They broke Nazi Germany well before D-day.
Must have been an "awkward" moment for Angela Merkel to sit in ceremony as the Allies commemorated D-Day that broke the back of Nazi Germany.
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@ulfposh
Zu akzeptieren dass im eigenen Laden was falsch gelaufen ist fällt offensichtlich sehr schwer.
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It took weeks of phone calls to Egypt & requests to track down every single step of the process until the Austrian bank finally admitted they had received the money, and that it was held by the compliance department.
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The trigger was of course Egypt (which the bank officials admitted) but the real problem was clearly the nationality and the middle name that indicates a religious affiliation (which they strenuously denied)
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Iraqi protesters demanding answers: Mr. Prime Minister: Where are the snipers who shot at us earlier this month? (Referring to government investigation that left open many questions). Unbelievably courageous Iraqi youths. More than 100 died 3 weeks ago.
#IraqProtests
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There will be no IMF money without a cleanup at BDL. It is really that simple.
Lebanon caretaker prime minister Hassan Diab to reporters on problems with forensic audit of the Banque du Liban: “They do not want to open pandora's box.”
Probe has hit roadblock with BdL refusing to hand over information requested by the auditors, citing banking secrecy laws.
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Der Spiegel: German Government, in secrete talks with U.S., has signalled that it may provide military support for buffer/safe zone in NE Syria. Likely from the air, extending existing anti-ISIS mandate. Pompeo in Berlin tomorrow.
via
@SPIEGELONLINE
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The trouble started with a transfer (not an amount that would fall into the money laundering bracket) from her account in Egypt to her acc in Austria that went missing. For nearly one month, the Austrian bank denied any knowledge of what happened to the money.
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Policy writing on Lebanon remains trapped in the fallacy that incentives can induce reform. No incentive (or threat) in the world will bring the Lebanese political elite to relinquish power. No reform is possible while they retain it. There is no leverage.
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What followed was an investigation in the best Kafkaesk tradition. Every single transfer had to be explained. 9 out of 10 were from or to family members (same name). Most of them were in the lower 3 digits
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What triggered the compliance guys even more was that my wife was paying for my in-law's private family health insurance, and receiving related reimbursements. This even puzzled the local bank representatives, who admitted there was no other way to do this, technically speaking.
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@mrmoneylesson
Action too often takes the form of actionism & careful deliberation gets short-circuited by "actionable" analysis to comply with the attention span of policy makers & boardrooms. The name of "Prometheus," who stands for Human ingenuity, literally means "foresight".
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After hiring a lawyer to finally get an answer from the compliance department & cut thru the legal mumbo-jumbo, the answer was that paying for her relatives' health insurance was suspected to be a money-laundering scheme.
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Looks like as of today we have yet another exchange rate, which currently would be 6,240 Lira to the $$. Perhaps we should call it Wollar (World Bank Dollar)?
@dan_azzi
.
On LBP rate used by WB loan: “Per GOL decision, beneficiaries will receive all their cash-based assistance in LBP. The conversion rate is based on a preferential rate obtained for this project and equal to 1.6 times the BDL Sayrafa electronic platform of LBP3,900 per US dollar.
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Some useful comments to deflate the idea that Lebanon could escape its crisis without meaningful - that is, painful - reform by "turning east". Neither the Russians nor the Chinese serve free lunches.
1/ The reason there's no meaningful Chinese/Russian investment in Lebanon is the same reason there's no meaningful US investment in Lebanon: There are no good large-scale investment opportunities here. No reforms, no stability, no growth, no good business environment, etc.
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After a week of record lows, Lebanese Lira for the 1st time ever falls below 3,000 to the Dollar. With 85% import dependency, this has triggered soaring inflation. Most Lebanese have by now lost nearly half their real income over a period of 10 months.
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Today I walked 5 Kilometers, from the Chinese Embassy in Beirut to the lighthouse, in solidarity with my colleague Michael Kovrig, who has been unjustly detained by Chinese authorities for 2 years today. That's the distance Michael paces daily to stay fit & sane in confinement.
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We need a ceasefire in Gaza. Now.
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"those who benefitted from past excessive returns need to share the burden of bank recapitalization"
Statement by IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on the International Conference on Support to Beirut and the Lebanese People
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Crisis Group is often asked by European government officials whether a return of refugees in larger numbers is likely or safe. The short answer is a double NO
The Tragedy of a Former Syrian Officer Seeing his Family Expelled from Denmark via
@observesyria
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Note that all people involved have the same family name, that we provided documentation from the Austrian insurance company (the biggest in the country) showing that every single part of this is entirely legit. No use.
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@Peter__Leonard
A typical strategy of security agencies in authoritarian environments around the world to discredit protest movements & legitimize violent crackdowns. Default assumption unless there is clear evidence to the contrary. Well-organized anti-regime groups don't appear out of nowhere.
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Hauenstein puts it into a nutshell:
"Performative ignorance and avoidance on the issue of Israel-Palestine will not help us [Germans] to dodge difficult questions about our own family histories for ever".
Germany must face its issues over Israel and the past. Silencing a Palestinian author won’t help. My op-ed for
@guardian
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For now nearly two years the likes of
@AzarsTweets
have tried to inject some basic financial literacy into the debate, but to no avail. The belief that political power allows you to defy gravity and create value out of thin air by decree just won't go away.
1/ Increasing the withdrawal rate to 8,000+ would increase BDL's unrealized balance sheet losses by hundreds of trillions of LBP. It doesn't matter if there are withdrawal limits. The loss will eventually materialize either as LBP deval or higher discount on bank deposits/checks.
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She complied with every single thing they asked, and provided every single document they wanted. We moved everything related to the insurance into my account (with a different bank). They still threw her out.
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@AngharadWatson
@_Annibyniaeth
If your salary has increased by 18% between 2011 and 2020, then you have lost 7.5% of your income's actual value during that period. HR departments typically are very insistent on ignoring this effect.
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Lebanon can still stay out of this war, but things have become very, very tight. Excellent thread by my Crisis Group colleague
@davidrobwood
THREAD 🧵
1/ Check out my
@crisisgroup
colleagues’ excellent explainer on what we know so far about the
#Hamas
#Israel
war.
I’ll add a few thoughts on
#Lebanon
.
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In Germany, where the Pfizer vaccine was developed, my 77-year old mother still has no idea when her turn will come.
In NYC, officially, the above 16 can get a vaccine in a week.
All adults above 30 can get a jab as of tmrw midnight.
In France, it's still the above 70 (+health workers). Y'day, Sunday, only a little over 65,000 jabs were administered. That's after full mobilisation was called
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Lebanon's new MoI Raya Hassan has been on the job for one month+, and already immigration at Beirut Airport runs much smoother, while signs of yet more reorganisation are clearly visible. Looks like this woman gets the job done..
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I kid you not
Caretaker Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni has sent a letter to Électricité du Liban asking it to provide a mechanism to pay back the treasury advances it has received from the ministry. About LL37 trillion were transferred to EDL between 1997 and 2020, the ministry estimates
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Syrian refugees in Lebanon are threatened by Baathist thugs that they will run them out of their camps if they don't come out and vote for Assad, and when they do they encounter "activists" who say that they will "send them back in boxes".
عاملين صندوق اقتراع على نهر الكلب وناطرين اولاد الكلب يلي بدهم ينتخبوا بشار حتى نردهم بصناديق
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So where does yesterday's resignation of the Lebanese government leave the country? By constitutional default, the Diab gov will carry or rather limp on in a caretaker function with very limited authorities. Certainly not to undertake serious reforms.
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We all knew it would come: Robert Fisk's takedown of the Lebanon revolt, italics (replaced with CAPS for twitter) and all:
"If you deconfessionalise Lebanon, it will cease to exist. Because sectarianism is the IDENTITY of Lebanon."
Ok.
#LebaneseProtests
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@Charles_Lister
@derspiegel
A far more sober report, based on the same investigation, minus the speculation & the innuendo.
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Commentary on the laborious formation of the new Iraqi government by Crisis Group's new senior Iraq analyst
@LahibHigel
On Third Try, a New Government for Iraq via
@crisisgroup
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From 50 to 60k in one week. Seems the floor has fallen out.
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In other news: A thread about the recent access restrictions to Campus of the American University of Beirut. For Ras Beirutis, mainly.
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Libermann proposes to re-occupy South Lebanon for up to 50 years. Last time Israel tried this approach, they took 22 years to figure out it won't work and helped create Hizbollah in the process.
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Lebanese Lira racing towards 4000 to the dollar. Those who earn Lira salaries (like the 300K+ state employees) have now lost 60% of their effective income. Make that 80% for the those who had their salaries cut, and 100% for the 300K who may have lost their jobs altogether.
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Now Nahariyya, Hanit, Shlomi. Several injured. We are clearly on the second rung of the escalation ladder.
Hizbollah attacked Shtula, killing one. That's outside the occupied Shebaa Farms, in Israel proper. Meaning, one notch up on the escalation ladder. A small notch, but on this, such details matter hugely.
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Probably the best explanation of the Lira devaluation is in this tweet by Mike Azar. The long & short of it: there is no floor, and the currency will eventually disappear. Along with the state behind the currency.
1/ The LBP:USD rate has increased from 21,000 to 31,000 over the last two months. Here are some data points that could explain why.
For one, the average daily Sayrafa volume (a proxy for BDL intervention) has fallen by more than 50% since March.
[THREAD]
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" Directly challenging Iran’s role in a theatre where Tehran has far greater influence is almost certain to end badly for Washington"
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Important read: World Bank conditions funding 🇱🇧's purchase of 🇪🇬 gas and 🇯🇴 electricity on raising tariffs & improving collection substantially, EDL audit. Each single one would be a heavy political lift, getting all 3 done in a few months looks like a very long shot.
#البنك_الدولي لا يكتفي فقط بزيادة التعرفة بل هو يشدد أيضاً على تفعيل عملية الجباية ونزع التعديات عن الشبكة... على أن يترافق ذلك مع خفض الهدر التقني على الشبكة إلى حده الأدنى.
@BassamAbouZeid
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If you want substantial, unbiased, intelligible and meticulously researched analysis of the Lebanese financial meltdown, follow
@AzarsTweets
. I rarely endorse anyone unreservedly, but Mike is a stellar exception.
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Ultimately, the only reliable way of stopping the war from triggering a wider regional confrontation would be to strengthen mediation efforts aimed at getting to some form of ceasefire and the release of the Israeli hostages and prisoners held by Hamas. 11/11
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10/20 The latest crisis in relations with Saudi Arabia may paralyze the 🇱🇧 government again & will damage the economy more. Crisis Group's latest report looks at the steady erosion of state institutions and their capacity, especially the security sector.
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Politicians, MPs and ministers asked to pay upfront in upscale Beirut restaurant - not sure this is even meant as a joke.
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US-Dollar reaches 25,000 🇱🇧 Lira. Before the crisis, 150,000 Lira would buy $ 100. Now they buy $ 6. Salaries have stayed mostly the same, inflation since 2019 = 450 %.
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Israel is going to ever greater lengths to silence and smear critics of its policies. Proud to have worked with Dr Asseburg, a scholar of impeccable integrity, who has now become the target of such a campaign.
Muriel Asseburg is a renowned Middle East expert. We reject the current insinuations and personal defamations. We support our long-standing colleague without reservation and expect respect and courtesy in our dealings.
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@KarlreMarks
The "Syrian Army" are 4 guys on the back of the pickup, or the one guy on the motobike?
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Lebanon seems to be entering a bread crisis, and no, the reason is NOT Ukraine. It's failing governance.
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"resentment present within the IMF regarding the accuracy of data provided by Lebanese government and banks"
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@AngharadWatson
@_Annibyniaeth
In many job markets, the only way to get effective inflation compensation is to change jobs. HR departments often also ignore the opportunity cost incurred that way. Experienced staff are valuable assets you want to keep, not just mouths to feed.
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This is partisan and nonsensic. The mess Lebanon is in has been made over 25 years, and it is a collective achievement. That Hizbollah delays government formation right now (after others already delayed it for 6 months) does not relieve anybody of that responsibility.
Hezbollah & the Islamic Republic of Iran are destroying Lebanon.
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Many Syrians are a real gain for German society. The net impact of 2015 may well be a positive one. Already, it is a showcase example how a wealthy society with efficient public admin can handle a significant refugee influx if the political will is there.
.
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An underreported part of Mikati's LBC interview was that Lebanon will NOT actually receive gas from Egypt. SYRIA is supposed to get Egyptian gas via Jordan, & the Syrians will then give the same amount to the Lebanese. If it happens (still quite an if, imho), it will be a swap.
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Formation of 🇱🇧 gov in difficult territory with parties playing hardball: President Michel Aoun reportedly wants guarantees from PM-designate Mikati that forensic audit of Central Bank will move forward, governor Riad Salameh deposed & prosecuted. 1/7
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Lebanese army to receive 2,000+ food packages from French Embassy, to be distributed among soldiers. Many soldiers are making less than $ 150 at the black market exchange rate.
الجيش:-وقعنا-اتفاقية-السفارة-الفرنسية-لتقديم-2108-
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