Jonathan Haskel
@haskelecon
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Professor of Economics, Imperial College Business School. External member, @BankofEngland Monetary Policy Committee. Views own, RTs not endorsements.
Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London
Joined September 2010
FWIW, CityAM's shadow MPC has voted 5-4 to cut rates (feat. @KallumPickering @BenRamanauskas @realVickyPryce and @haskelecon, among others...) 🤓 https://t.co/PlOb2JTHDU
cityam.com
Slim majority of economists on City AM’s Shadow MPC said fresh inflation data allowed the Bank of England to proceed with interest rate cuts.
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8. Summary. Europe: has to catch up. US: updating (the late great) Robert Solow: you can see the AI age everywhere including the productivity statistics. ENDS. 📄
spiral.imperial.ac.uk
This paper estimates the possible AI contribution to future labor productivity growth assuming that AI is both a “general purpose technology” and an “innovation in the method of innovation.” The...
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7. The future? if AI boosts productivity in many intangible biz functions (e.g., branding, supply chain logistics, product R&D), then long-run boost to LPG is big: - US: +1pp/year - Europe: +0.3pp/year
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6. Findings? In US: software and software R&D already account for: half of current 2% labor productivity growth (LPG) (2017–2024); & half of the 1.2pp accel in LPG vs. 2012–2017. In Europe: software production sector is smaller and capital deepening weaker.
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5. *Implication*: AI impact faster than steam or electricity. Why? - An IMI as well as a GPT. - Adoption faster (e.g. ChatGPT’s 1M users in 5 days) - Uses existing infrastructure (e.g. Cloud)
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4. Example: software. AI boosts TFP in software production. Then software is used in production including producing other intangibles e.g. software helping R&D in pharma or robotics.
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3. AI boosts productivity by: 1. Raising upstream TFP = better R&D, customer relations, business org = more production of intangible capital 2. Using improvements = more use of intangible capital
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2. Framework. The economy is: - “Upstream” innovation/commercialization business functions producing intangible” capital (e.g. new CRM software) - “Downstream” production using intangible capital (e.g. new rostering and customer-facing software)
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1. What if AI isn’t just a general-purpose technology (GPT), but also an “innovation in the method of innovation” (IMI)? We argue this dual role raises productivity growth— already doing so in the US.
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🚀 New paper alert: “AI as an Innovation in the Method of Innovation: Implications for Productivity Growth in the US and Europe”, https://t.co/2vh4bSoABa. With Filippo Bontadini, @carolcorrado, Cecilia Jona-Lasinio. A thread🧵1/8
spiral.imperial.ac.uk
This paper estimates the possible AI contribution to future labor productivity growth assuming that AI is both a “general purpose technology” and an “innovation in the method of innovation.” The...
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excellent work here !
Ahead of his presentation @TPIProductivity's recent conference @OfficialUoM, we spoke to @JoshMartin_econ about his new work with Cliodhna Taylor (@ONSfocus) on labour productivity estimates with greater industry detail. Full video: https://t.co/wkphXYQj3C
@kingsbschool
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@BarclaysCIB @MeaningJack @nridpathecon @RachelReevesMP @ImperialBiz @haskelecon @FlintGlobal Many thanks to panelists @haskelecon, Andy King, @BenZaranko, @MeaningJack and chair @HelenMiller_IFS for joining our IFS Green Budget launch. 📗 Find all of our Green Budget publications here: https://t.co/FXN3LOfW6f 🖥️ Watch the event on YouTube here:
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Looking forward to our Green budget event @ 9.30 What does Rachel Reeves need to do in the Budget? We'll have analysis from @theIFS & Barclays &hear from @haskelecon (ex- MPC) & Andy King (ex-OBR) If not coming in person, you can still watch here: https://t.co/JseVgb5gAu
ifs.org.uk
The IFS Green Budget assessed the state of the UK economy and the government’s fiscal position ahead of the Autumn Budget.
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Look forward to discussing this morning
Fun fact on @theIFS Green Budget The ‘green’ in the name has nothing to do with IFS colour scheme or the environment. We have published our Green Budget since 1982 because governments don't publish Green Papers for the Budget
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Talking to @EvanHD on @BBCPM on Tuesday about uncertainty over budget measures a problem for the economy
"What's problematic is all of the doubt and worry over what exactly is going to happen." Jonathan Haskel, former Bank of England monetary policy committee member, tells #BBCPM that concern caused by the government's budget is a bigger economic problem than high inflation.
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We really have no idea how good we have it. From 1515 in England there was a legally-mandated 66-hour *minimum* work week during the spring and summer months for urban workers, which fell in the autumn and winter along with pay. (Sneak peek from my book draft):
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Looking forward to giving evidence tomorrow afternoon to @CommonsBTC for their inquiry into Financing the Real Economy. @TeraPauliina @haskelecon
@AdairTurnerUK @williamnhutton @CamEcon
@UKRI_News @NIESRorg
@TPIProductivity
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Delighted to have you @ImperialBiz Patrick!
We are delighted to welcome Patrick Schneider, Assistant Professor of Economics to the Business School 👋 From household liquidity to UK’s productivity, @patricksecon brings a unique voice in the research landscape. Find out more here ➡️ https://t.co/LPYiFxkr0J
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Next Thursday at 9:30am we launch our IFS Green Budget report, funded by @NuffieldFound and in association with @BarclaysUK, on the economic challenges and trade-offs facing the Chancellor with panelists @haskelecon and Andy King. 📅 Sign up to join here: https://t.co/vbYCupI5KC
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Why are so many politicians afraid to make the big arguments? Why do too many winnable arguments end up being lost eg on welfare reform? If the government doesn't start motoring, it will lose the argument on ID cards. My latest Substack. Please subscribe and RT. @campbellclaret
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