NEW PODCAST: The Autumn Budget 2025 explained @HelenMiller_IFS, @benzaranko and @ckfarquharson break down the major decisions in a packed Autumn Budget and what they mean for the UK in our new IFS Zooms In episode. 🎧 Listen here: https://t.co/NPAEn719ai

'I don't think we can afford to have budgets that look like this in some sense. The growth problem is so bad.' @HelenMiller_IFS, @benzaranko and @ckfarquharson discuss this week's Budget and its implications for growth in our new podcast. 🎧 Listen here: https://t.co/NPAEn719ai

Find all of our IFS analysis of the #Budget2025 here:

📊 #IFSSatStat: Next year households will see income gains from Budget reforms including a fuel duty cut relative to existing plans and removing the two-child limit. The hit from big tax rises is set to kick in later, particularly for middle and higher-income households.

'Real household disposable income is going to grow about 0.4% annually this parliament. That is the second worst growth in living standards we've had since the late 1970s.' @ckfarquharson talks living standards in our #Budget2025 podcast. 🎧 Listen here: https://t.co/NPAEn719ai

Here's the relevant paragraph of Labour's manifesto. The income tax bit refers specifically to rates. But the promise that "we will not increase National Insurance" is unambiguous. The Budget increased National Insurance (in two separate ways). Hence our view that it's a breach.

'The manifesto said no increase in National Insurance. This is an increase in National Insurance.' @HelenMiller_IFS and @BenZaranko discuss whether the Budget's tax changes are a breach of Labour's manifesto pledge in our new podcast. 🎧 Listen here: https://t.co/NPAEn719ai

At no point in the process did the OBR have the government missing its fiscal rules by a large margin. Leaves me baffled by the months of speculation and briefing. Was the plan to lead everyone to expect a big income tax rise, then surprise them on the day by not doing it..?

Interesting new info from @OBR_UK On Oct 31 Rachel Reeves knew that - before any policy action - she still had a forecast SURPLUS. She was not handed a big fiscal repair job & forecast hadn't moved much pre-measures. Why then that odd breakfast tv speech?

A few areas where I'm more critical: 7) The spend now, pay later approach: extra spending is front-loaded, tax rises are enormously back-loaded. The consolidation plan relies heavily on the government doing difficult things in an election year. I have some doubts.

The Budget: What does it actually mean for you? 🎧 Listen to IFS Director @HelenMiller_IFS on #BBCNewscast with @adamfleming and @ClaerB on the impacts of this week's Budget:

Continue to be astonished by how quickly my colleagues can turn these podcasts around… we only finished recording at 2pm! Listen in for our take on the Budget, and our attempt to string together coherent sentences on little sleep…

NEW: There is a due to be a £6 billion gap between SEND funding and spending in 2028-29, on the basis of OBR forecasts. 📗Luke Sibieta runs through the three main options for filling this gap: https://t.co/my19dSXPEo

My @theIFS colleague Luke Sibieta highlights how there are no easy options for central government as it takes responsibility for 'fully funding' SEND costs in 2028-29. Some combo of reforms to ⬇️ costs & raids to other budgets are needed. But there's another tricky issue too..

Further to this, in a (plausible) scenario presented by the OBR, official plans imply that "unprotected" departments would face cuts of >3% per year, equivalent to more than £20 billion, 2029 to 2031. That includes police, courts, job centres, prisons, FE colleges, HMRC, ...

As an aside, I was asked about whether the Budget represents a manifesto breach on the telly earlier https://t.co/1MzadNjuGD

Having now mulled overnight, a few aspects of the Budget where the government deserves some credit: 1) Increasing fiscal headroom 2) A plan for how to tax electric cars, at last (even if it's imperfect) 3) A plan to gradually undo the "temporary" 5p cut in fuel duty

"There are bright spots [from the Budget]. The increase in headroom, a plan for how to tax electric cars, more transparency on SEND costs – all of these decisions, and some others, deserve credit." A note of positivity from @theIFS Helen Miller's remarks on the budget.

“The key for a Budget is you need to be on the front foot… not feeling like you’re constantly reacting to something outside of you.” The IFS’s Helen Miller discusses the different ways the Government could approach future fiscal events. #Newsnight