Jason Furman
@jasonfurman
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Professor at Harvard. Teaches Ec 10, some posts might be educational. Also Senior Fellow @PIIE & contributor @nytopinion. Was Chair of President Obama's CEA.
Cambridge, MA
Joined April 2011
RT @PIIE: Fed independence is not lost following Lisa Cook's firing, but to defend it will require the simultaneous efforts of several inst….
nytimes.com
Trump’s move to fire a Federal Reserve governor threatens the independence of the central bank. Its autonomy is not lost, but three institutions must act.
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RT @genebsperling: IMPT: Beware an assault on independence of Fed through not reappointing Fed Bank Presidents. The 7-Member Fed Board re….
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RT @NatashaRSarin: Really thrilled I got to speak with @ezraklein on where the economy is going -- and our work at @The_Budget_Lab to track….
nytimes.com
Natasha Sarin walks through how Trump’s tariffs, the A.I. boom and the leadership shake-up at the Bureau of Labor Statistics are affecting the economy.
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RT @jmaxmann: Even the God of Tariffs, William McKinley, ensured no tariffs on coffee or tea.
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RT @DannyDayan5: @jasonfurman You don't think banana tariffs will bring back the glory days of plantation farms? Color me shocked. https://….
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If you’re hunting for good news here’s something: Talkspace therapy is covered by most insurance plans and the average copay is only $15 (but most covered members pay $0).
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In 1971 Nixon imposed 10% across-the-board tariffs. And even they exempted coffee (plus many other commodities). It is hard to understand what the Trump administration is thinking economically--let alone politically--with this one.
I will be introducing bipartisan legislation to repeal tariffs on coffee. We produce less than 1%, and these tariffs on Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, & Columbia are a 15-20% tax on Americans at the start of their day. Anyone who has a coffee cup always in hand hates this tax!.
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Not regretting this piece.
I expand on why I--like just about every economist and wonk I know--believes that EJ Antoni is a terrible pick for BLS Commission. Shout outs to @AlanMCole, @stanveuger and if more space would have called out dozens more.
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Note, we're likely past the peak of the tariff Laffer curve, so cutting tariffs would boost revenue. But not the same as eliminating tariffs boosts revenues. In general, the Laffer curve is about marginal changes (very high rates to high rates) not cutting rates to zero.
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I hate tariffs as much as the next person. But this is very unlikely to be true. Back-of-the-envelope: If tariffs raise 0.8% of GDP then would need output to be 4% lower to offset (because 20% tax rate * 4% output = 0.8%). That is 10X most estimates of output loss.
Crucial point from @RameshPonnuru:. "If the tariffs reduce economic growth, lost income and lost corporate tax revenue have to be subtracted from those extra tariff revenues. It’s entirely conceivable that the net effect on revenues is marginal or even negative.".
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I expand on why I--like just about every economist and wonk I know--believes that EJ Antoni is a terrible pick for BLS Commission. Shout outs to @AlanMCole, @stanveuger and if more space would have called out dozens more.
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The WSJ Editorial page on President Trump's pick for BLS Commissioner: "Mr. Antoni’s commentary at Heritage has been highly partisan, but the BLS job demands nonpartisan professionalism."
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Note median and trimmed mean were slightly reassuring in July, suggesting some of the hot read on core inflation was just outlier items and not broadly felt.
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Please click onto the image below to hear oldies and classic rock.
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The CPI-based Ecumenical Underlying Inflation measure rose again in July and now stands at 2.6%. This is the median of seven measures over 3, 6 and 12 months (so 21 overall, all re-meaned to match the PCE).
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Overall one concern about the inflation numbers is that even ex tariffs underlying inflation appears to be running above 2.5%. And then tariffs are taking it above 3%, arguably but unfortunately not definitely transitory. More later.
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The overall dynamic is core services inflation has stayed high (and even rose in July) while core goods have gone from deflation to inflation.
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Here are all the numbers. All of them highly elevated except headline--which benefited from a 2.2% decline in gasoline prices (seasonally adjusted).
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