Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
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Sr fellow @PIIE. Sr advisor JPMC Institute. Was Under Secretary Econ Affairs @commercegov and chief economist @indeed @trulia. More at https://t.co/HCcVCP08Yj
New York City
Joined September 2011
It's not a small world. It's just your small socio-economic stratum.
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Some of the economic data that's gone unpublished during the shutdown can be approximated by private-sector data. But lots can't. The shutdown teaches a lot about the possibilities and limits of private-sector data. https://t.co/cHEdOUsJEG
piie.com
The government shutdown provides an unexpected test case for an increasingly urgent question: What would happen if official economic statistics became less useful, whether through declining resourc...
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Thanks to the shutdown, we didn't get the first estimate of Q3 GDP today. And private-sector data offer no good substitute for official GDP. The shutdown offers lots of lessons about what private sector data can and can't do. (blogpost link follows)
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We’re live from EIG’s Power of Place Conference: Enduring Relevance in an Uncertain World! Exploring big, bold ideas for how communities can adapt and thrive through economic change. Follow along for highlights. #PowerOfPlace
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A JPM analysis finds real income growth for prime-age (25–54) American workers fell to 2% y/y in September. Nominal growth is ~ at its pre-pandemic pace, “but real purchasing power gains are at a relatively low level” given inflation. https://t.co/1d1OhVNq33
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When data degrades or disappears, it's harder to make decisions.
Fed's Powell, asked about how lack of data during govt shutdown might factor into decision on Dec rate cut, says it's hard to say this far out, but if there's a lot of uncertainty about what's going on in the economy, that "could be an argument in favor of caution about moving."
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Is the payroll data that @ADP just announced they're publishing weekly the same or different from what ADP was sharing with the @federalreserve until recently? (And, if different, how?)
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Improving monthly payroll employment estimates is an attainable goal, but will require a sustained commitment of time, attention, & resources. The experts at statistical agencies must be allowed to pursue promising leads, & given the resources to do so.
piie.com
President Donald Trump announced Aug. 1 he had ordered the firing of BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, claiming the job numbers issued that day “were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME,...
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Federal Reserve officials, who are unable to receive U.S. economic statistics due to the continuing government shutdown, recently lost access to a separate measure of employment data from ADP, a payroll-processing firm whose data-sharing with the central bank has been public for
wsj.com
Payroll processing firm ADP ended its data-sharing with the central bank after a speech highlighted the already-public collaboration.
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“Fed officials, who are unable to receive U.S. economic statistics due to the government shutdown, recently lost access to a separate measure of employment data from a third-party provider” — @WSJ
wsj.com
Payroll processing firm ADP ended its data-sharing with the central bank after a speech highlighted the already-public collaboration.
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Private sector climate data cannot make up for the official climate data that’s disappearing. For climate data, like economic data, private data is a complement, not a substitute, for public data. New via @FT
ft.com
Datasets have been removed, federal websites scrubbed and thousands of Noaa staff purged. Experts warn disaster defences are at risk
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Congratulations to @ernietedeschi and @The_Budget_Lab for producing so much of the data and insights by which we understand today's economy.
Some professional news: Today is my last day full-time at @The_Budget_Lab. It was an honor & a privilege to call the TBL team "coworkers" over the last 18 months. Intelligent, curious, & utterly collegial. What they've built & accomplished in so short a time is just stunning. 1/3
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Some professional news: Today is my last day full-time at @The_Budget_Lab. It was an honor & a privilege to call the TBL team "coworkers" over the last 18 months. Intelligent, curious, & utterly collegial. What they've built & accomplished in so short a time is just stunning. 1/3
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I'm in @Opinion today talking about three "partial truths" in the US economic narrative. "Partial truths" are not myths--they have more than a kernel of fact behind them--but they demand caution, asterisks, and grains of salt. https://t.co/Y5RYc6NrmX 1/9
bloomberg.com
Sometimes there are economic narratives that don’t quite deserve a debunking — they have more than a kernel of truth to them — but rather demand an appropriate level of skepticism. Three such stories...
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Global growth will remain uneven across regions as AI investment cushions the drag from trade tensions & policy uncertainty in the US, strong domestic demand sustains growth in India, Brazil faces slower growth with tight monetary policy, & more. Read: https://t.co/2Ce22HS5pP
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For the first time in about 70 years, net immigration to America could be zero. Beneath the noise of tariff and budget fights, migration may well be the biggest economic story of 2025. My latest for @TheEconomist: Welcome to Zero Migration America 🧵 + link below
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Today's ADP jobs number reflects (downward) preliminary benchmark revision; official BLS jobs report won't reflect this revision until Jan 2026. ADP as published: -32k ADP w/o revision: +11k Widen your confidence intervals accordingly!
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So how is everyone feeling about private sector data subbing in for official statistics?
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