Geoffrey Skelley
@geoffreyvs
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Chief Elections Analyst for @DecisionDeskHQ. Alum of @FiveThirtyEight @Center4Politics. VA native now in VT. @UVA @JMU alum https://t.co/OiT2nJms3K
Joined October 2009
Looking for election results? I made a Google spreadsheet with state-by-state sources for results. Let me know if there's one I missed because I probably did!
docs.google.com
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The DDHQ Podcast talked #NYCMayor with @MichaelLangeNYC. With Mamdani holding a double-digit lead over Cuomo, the question for Election Day may not so much be who wins or loses, but whether Mamdani can break 50% & win something like a mandate. https://t.co/Cp0ASVJU1c
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Tracking onchain activity can get messy. So we made it easier for you.
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At 6pm today, DDHQ will release its weekly poll memo. We spotlight our California redistricting proposition average & review data for other races, pres approval & more. If you'd like to receive it and other FREE DDHQ analyses in your inbox, sign up here!
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As of today, Adelita Grijalva has gone un-sworn-in for longer than any representative-elect this century. (Data from @greggiroux)
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New CNU Wason Poll of Virginia Governor Spanberger (D) 50% Earle-Sears (R) 43% LG Hashmi (D) 47% Reid (R) 45% AG Miyares (R) 46% Jones (D) 45% House of Delegates Dem 51% GOP 43%
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FTMO Verified prop traders walk their path. Rise now and start your FTMO Challenge!
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To be clear, we are definitely getting the race to the bottom.
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"My side can gerrymander but yours can't" is not a defensible take. You basically have to be cool with the race to the bottom or oppose it broadly, regardless of which party is pursuing it.
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In our weekly Substack newsletter, @geoffreyvs digs into the sequence of events necessary for Virginia Democrats to redistrict their state's congressional map in time for the 2026 election. It's not impossible, but there are MANY steps. https://t.co/gzCttoPo9k
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The one and only @SteveKornacki joined the Decision Desk HQ Podcast to talk about #NJGov. He told @geoffreyvs that one New Jersey Democrat he'd spoken with said that Mikie Sherrill (D) "is losing the campaign but is going to win the election anyway." https://t.co/syS3lPXiJV
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It’s totally insane that we don’t have the same approach as cigarettes for something like this. And Joe Camel never reached through your TV screen to give you $100 worth of free cigarettes to get started!
"I'm not saying "ban sports gambling." But it seems to me a no-brainer that you should get rid of the ads on TV. Why should you be pushing people into it? That's crazy." Michael Lewis, to me, last winter: https://t.co/h5K88ulxqz
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Check out my conversation with @geoffreyvs on the state of play in NJ. I really like their format of incorporating maps and charts. (And next time I'll try to remember to wear my Rutgers shirt.)
This week's DDHQ Podcast features a close look at #NJGov with the great @SteveKornacki. Steve joined @geoffreyvs for a map-rich discussion of how recent trends could influence the result in New Jersey between Mikie Sherrill (D) and Jack Ciattarelli (R). https://t.co/OI5cJ0fVyT
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Feb. 26, 2026, Trump will bribe Israel to falsely declare Trump "messiah". The unholy price Trump pays: a treaty allowing Israel to build "Trump's Temple" on Temple Mount. The title "Messiah" is not for sale. It belongs only to Jesus Christ, who died for OUR sins and rose again!
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Yep, Brad confirms these considerations are part of the Dems planning. Still a lot of moving parts for them.
Alright, here’s what I know: Trigger language likely Been in the works since Labor Day “it’s hard for me to imagine this would happen if we weren’t united” Can address timing/primary concerns via code Gov needed to 🆗💰 for referendum election #valeg
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This week's DDHQ Podcast features a close look at #NJGov with the great @SteveKornacki. Steve joined @geoffreyvs for a map-rich discussion of how recent trends could influence the result in New Jersey between Mikie Sherrill (D) and Jack Ciattarelli (R). https://t.co/OI5cJ0fVyT
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Presumably they’d also have to delay the June primary to make this at all feasible? Will be quite a stretch to get this done in time for 2026. Plus, still need voters to approve it. And Virginia is not California.
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Virginia Dems’ redistricting play is **very** time-sensitive if they want to affect 2026 map. Have to pass const. amendment before 2025 election, pass it again in next leg session early next year, then have statewide vote 90 days after passing 2nd time.
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This afternoon, DDHQ will release a podcast on #NJGov featuring the one and only @SteveKornacki as our guest! You can subscribe to the DDHQ Substack for FREE below to receive it in your inbox! https://t.co/GeeG3MdIaA
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NEW: City Island in the Bronx, the working man's Nantucket, has a one-of-a-kind political culture in NYC. Home to civil servants, resistance liberals, Archie Bunker boomers, I delve into why this seaside village is split between Mamdani, Cuomo, & Sliwa: https://t.co/kzAKkbFKAp
michaellange.nyc
No Democrat running for Mayor has won City Island in 40 years. Can Zohran Mamdani change that?
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If it's October in an off year in Virginia, Obama is coming to Hampton Roads to help a white nominee shore up support with black voters!
In 2021, Obama campaigned w the whole VA Dem ticket. Jay Jones is from Norfolk — and before his scandals, one hope was that he’d help turn out black voters there. So, interesting to see whether he shares the Obama stage next week.
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Tonight, DDHQ will cover results for 7 special election primaries for state legislative seats. There are 4 contested races, all GOP primaries in firmly red seats: -AL House 38 -SC Senate 12 -SC House 21 -SC House 88 You can watch the results here:
election-night.decisiondeskhq.com
Live Election Night Results from Decision Desk HQ
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There's one thing we haven't seen in the whole "why is New Jersey redder than Virginia?" discourse: Virginia's outgoing governor is a Republican, while New Jersey's is a Democrat. Voters often want change. New @SplitTicket_ (!!) piece from @ECaliberSeven:
split-ticket.org
In 2025, two governors are retiring — Republican Glenn Youngkin in Virginia and Democrat Phil Murphy in New Jersey, and their seats are up for grabs. Both Virginia and New Jersey are similarly blue…
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Errr...no, that is definitely not true.
So no mention of how 2024 had the lowest turnout rate in the history of NJ presidential elections? If NJ ends up with the lowest governorship election turnout rate in its history, yeah this analysis will hold. It doesn’t make sense otherwise.
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