Geoffrey Skelley
@geoffreyvs
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Free agent psephologist writing at https://t.co/CuNElKiWJt. Alum of @FiveThirtyEight @Center4Politics. VA native now in VT. @UVA @JMU alum
Joined October 2009
Looking for election results? I made a Google spreadsheet with state-by-state sources for results. Let me know if there's one I missed because I probably did!
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RT @marywitha4: Ah yes, undecided 12 months before the primary, signaling deep dissatisfaction lol
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Lol.
BACON 2028? Battleground Rep. @DonJBacon doesn’t have the "fire in my belly" for another grueling House re-election campaign. But the 30-year Air Force vet would love to serve in an executive role — and isn't ruling out a bid for PRESIDENT. W/@frankthorp.
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RT @bencasselman: Great story/charts from @lydiadepillis @christinezhang on how health care ate the American economy. This pair of maps is….
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RT @SeanTrende: People know I'm skeptical of the idea of realignments, but there was an interesting poli sci book that tried to define them….
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Haha, well, after much sturm and drang, the rule passed in the wee hours and the bill seems on course to pass, just as expected.
This news is really the first time I have actually questioned whether this rule would pass in the end.
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RT @MattGlassman312: Everyone who thinks legislative politics should and could be easier than this is basically exposing that they've never….
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I asked Massie why he switched his vote:. “Simple answer: Because most of the world doesn’t understand the difference between a rule vote and final passage.”.
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Massie leaning extra hard into his iconoclastic reputation. A reminder that he may have a significant primary challenger actually run against this time with Trump out for Massie’s seat.
Thomas Massie just switched his vote from YES to NO on procedural vote for Trump megabill. He walked right up to Majority Whip Tom Emmer. The two talked for a minute or so. And then Massie went and switched his vote. Now 5 Republican NO votes. Getting worse not better.
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This news is really the first time I have actually questioned whether this rule would pass in the end.
WOW. THOMAS MASSIE is changing his vote on the rule. He just switched from Yes to No.
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And yep, Valadao votes "yes" on the rule.
Valadao also voted to impeach Trump and nearly failed to advance in his 2022 primary because of it against a terrible fellow R candidate. That past fact weighs on any critical vote of his.
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RT @JakeSherman: JOHNSON says he will keep the rule vote, which is 207-216, open as long as it takes to get the majority. he is 10 short….
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Valadao also voted to impeach Trump and nearly failed to advance in his 2022 primary because of it against a terrible fellow R candidate. That past fact weighs on any critical vote of his.
More than 60 percent of Valadao’s constituents in #CA22 are on Medicaid.
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RT @MattGlassman312: How cool would it be if we broke the record for longest vote in the House *twice* on the same resolution?. ::ducks::.
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Tapping the sign because I've seen some of this when people describe what Mark Green (R-TN) is doing after reconciliation is concluded. He's going to resign, not retire, because he's leaving before the end of his term.
McCarthy is RESIGNING, not retiring. Please fix your stories and headlines, they are not the same thing.
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If Roy sticks to not voting, it's a race to which side can get 216. Currently *No* has 216 with 11 R votes outstanding, but one No->Yes flip among the 4 GOP Noes would change the outcome. Spartz remains a good bet.
Four Republicans voting against the rule at the moment: Keith Self, Victoria Spartz, Andrew Clyde and Brian Fitzpatrick. If it holds, that's enough GOP no votes to tank the rule. HOWEVER, this is lining up PERFECTLY for Spartz to reverse herself. .
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RT @MEPFuller: Four Republicans voting against the rule at the moment: Keith Self, Victoria Spartz, Andrew Clyde and Brian Fitzpatrick. If….
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RT @JakeSherman: very tense scene right now on the House floor. vote is at 192-213. Republicans are losing this rule vote now. 4 GOP no v….
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