Ethan C7
@ECaliberSeven
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24 | Elections Nerd | Moderate Democrat | Part Time Optimist | Full Time Skeptic
New Jersey, USA
Joined August 2019
Democrat Jessica Swartz of Kalamazoo is dropping her bid for US House in #MI04 + filed today to run for Michigan House instead, District 41, per campaign manager Bridget Ryan. This clears a path for state Sen. Sean McCann in the 4th, where he's targeting GOP's Bill Huizenga
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JUST IN: Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis announces she will not seek re-election in 2026.
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NEW: Colorado Treasurer Dave Young ends campaign in 8th Congressional District https://t.co/DrnFrMWBgz
#copolitics
coloradosun.com
The Democrat’s departure from the contest means it’s effectively a three-way race for a chance to take on Republican U.S. Rep. Gabe Evans next year in one of the nation’s most competitive congressi...
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Big NJ-12 news: @AndrewZwicker will NOT run for Congress, saying he’d rather focus on his work in the State Senate. Zwicker probably would’ve been the closest thing the Democratic primary had to a frontrunner; without him, the race is wide open. https://t.co/fL0cLyrc2n
newjerseyglobe.com
State Sen. Andrew Zwicker (D-South Brunswick) will not run for Congress in 2026, a decision that instantly reshapes the Democratic primary for the 12th
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2024 U.S. House Election in NJ-11 -> 2025 NJ Governor Election in NJ-11 Comparison by municipality. Lots of Sherrill '24/Ciattarelli '25 voters and apparently even more Belnome '24/Sherrill '25 voters
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From Dec 8 to Dec 21, Save Up to 50% on Roborock Vacuums Built for Effortless Cleaning.
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Also former executive director of the DCCC under Chair Cheri Bustos. So she's not a typical first-time candidate.
#NEW: Allison Jaslow, an Iraq War veteran, will file as a Democratic candidate for North Carolina’s new 3rd Congressional District. The district picked up more Democrats after redistricting, and she plans to make her case to voters.
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The chief prerogative of the institutional Dem party is coalition management, to the detriment of EVERYTHING else. Suck up to all, satisfy none. Dems will win 2026 regardless, but this is no way to build a majority FOR the Dem party, rather than one MERELY against Trump.
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🤡 Freaking HR-ass party too afraid of offending literally ANYONE to point out why it put in its WORST performance in twenty years. Laying the groundwork for Kamala to win the nomination and make the EXACT same do-nothing, say-nothing mistakes AGAIN in 2028.
NEWS: The DNC is killing off its 2024 autopsy. DNC Chairman Ken Martin has decided not to publish a public report, believing that a backward-looking document would be counterproductive as the party has started winning. https://t.co/j7aVWGSpg1
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"This is totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October" -- @fcastofthemonth
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*taps sign* People forget just how DAMN gerrymandered the House map was going into 2018. In 2016, Rs won the tipping point House race (TX-07) BY OVER 12%! By all measures, the battlefield for Dems going into 2026 is MILES better than it was in 2018. https://t.co/HTjxGKWxAS
Periodic reminder that the OVERWHELMING reason House Dems have “fewer targets” going into 2026 vs 2018, is because Dems already WON way more in 2024! Dems already have 215 House seats, over TWENTY more than their starting point in 2017 (194). Of course there’s fewer layups!
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First, periodic reminder the reason House Ds have fewer targets in 2026 vs 2018 is cuz they won 21 MORE seats in 2024 vs 2016. Second, the idea that reaching 235 is now harder is TOTAL BS. By Prez lean, 2018's seat #235 (UT-04, R+9 vs nation) is REDDER than 2026's (NC-11, R+8).
The underrated factors limiting the power of a blue wave next year Really cool feature here: https://t.co/ZKxODl3NWT
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Link if anyone is somehow interested. Apparently the dude didn’t even show up to give his resignation in person. He just sent in a letter, and gave a separate interview. Perhaps he just decided this wasn’t for him. https://t.co/FIyr1SMidE
tapinto.net
RARITAN, NJ – In a move that surprised both staff and borough council, Raritan Mayor Nicolas Carra stepped down Tuesday afternoon, effective immediately.“Serving as your mayor has been one of the...
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In random local news, the 29-year old GOP mayor of Jack Ciattarelli’s home town just randomly resigned, after a couple years as mayor. Apparently nobody was expecting it either. Did the dude just get bored/frustrated of it or something?
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Standard disclaimer that special elections are historically predictive of the national environment, but weren't in 2024. As usual, the full sheet can be found below. See y'all in next week in South Carolina! https://t.co/a60Xk4ig9u
docs.google.com
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Welcome back to Special Elex Tuesday! Today's special was an absolute BLOWOUT, with Democrat Gary Clemons winning his Harris+5 seat in Louisville by 47.5%, a whopping FORTY-TWO POINT overperformance! The average 2025 special election is now ~12% bluer than 2024 Prez.
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Personally, not a fan that Malinowski blatantly carpetbagged to a whole other seat to run (not that I wanted him to run for NJ-07 - we've got better candidates), but: A: I don't live in NJ-11, so doesn't matter B: Whatever it takes to beat Gill, I suppose
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There's still a LONG time before the 2/5 primary. And w/out the county line, these endorsements matter MUCH less. But w/ the establishment coalesced behind Brendan Gill, anti-machine folks will prob need to similarly coalesce around an alternative to beat Gill - prob Malinowski.
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Worth noting that Andy is SUPER popular w/ Morris Dems. In the 2024 Senate primary, they gave Andy his largest convention win outside his home base, beating Tammy Murphy 85%-11%. Wonder if Andy’s endorsement coalesced progs behind Malinowski in a field FULL of progressive picks.
☑️Tom Malinowski won the endorsement of the Morris County Democratic Committee with 52.7% on the 9th ballot of a convention using ranked choice voting in race for Mikie Sherrill's NJ-11 House seat.
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In case anyone's curious, this is Brisson's district. It's stayed in more or less this configuration since 2012.
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But yea. It kinda seems that having TONS of crossover appeal as a member of one party doesn't always translate when you flip to the other.
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