NJ/VA are both Harris+6. Yet the open Gov race in NJ is deemed competitive, while the one in VA is not. This divergence follows a longstanding trend: when one party's Gov retires, the other often overperforms. CRUCIAL for 2026. My piece for @SplitTicket_ https://t.co/kjZHkYzBvs

DEAL TAKEN! W!

𝗜 𝗮𝗺 𝗿𝘂𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗻 𝗕𝗼𝗮𝗿𝗱, 𝗜’𝗱 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝘆'𝘀 𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲, (𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗳 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗰𝗮𝗻'𝘁 𝘃𝗼𝘁𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗺𝗲, 𝗮 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗼𝗿 ❤️ 𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗯𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴). As CEO of Better

NEWS: Ohio House Minority Leader Dani Isaacsohn (D) told Speaker Matt Huffman (R) that he would accept the deal, per source familiar Not expecting a formal announcement tonight but this looks like it will be Ohio's congressional map through 2031

Oh, this is a no brainer. ABSOLUTELY take the deal. Sykes and Landsman very likely survive 2026 in those seats. Heck, there’s a nonzero chance Kaptur could even survive that OH-09 in a blue midterm!

Ohio Rs basically offering an R+1 instead of the probable R+2/3 otherwise.

DEAL! DEAL! TAKE THE DEAL! Leaving Landsman and Sykes in purple seats is DEFINITELY way better than what a fully partisan gerrymander of Ohio likely produces.

57% think President Donald Trump’s policies will increase inflation, while 30% say his policies will decrease inflation and 12% believe they will have no effect on inflation. #mulawpoll

33% say tariffs will help the economy, 55% say they will hurt the economy, and 11% say they don’t make much difference. 64% of Republicans say tariffs will help the economy, while 55% of independents and 95% of Democrats think they will hurt the economy. #mulawpoll

Asked if tariffs are helping or hurting Wisconsin farmers, 16% say they are helping, 62% say they are hurting, and 20% believe they aren’t making much difference. #mulawpoll

Crucially, the CA GOP, seeing an unwinnable race, has already waved the white flag on Prop 50. The VA GOP, facing a VERY winnable one, definitely wouldn't. So Dems are already facing a theoretically easier fight in CA than they would be in VA.

While CA's redistricting referendum is guaranteed to pass next week, VERY important to note how it does vs it's Harris+20 margin. After all, Harris+6 VA is attempting a similar referendum early next year. Anything less than YES+15 in CA would bode poorly on VA Dem chances there.

Maryland’s state Senate leader rejects call to redistrict, weakening Dems’ chances to redo maps “The Senate is choosing not to move forward with mid-cycle redistricting,” he writes. https://t.co/MNjZSZateZ

Standard disclaimer that special elections are historically predictive of the national environment, but weren’t in 2024. Based on 21/23, we should expect a modestly blue 2025. We’ll see how they do next week! As usual, you can find the full sheet below: https://t.co/kQHB80wlXt

Welcome back to Special Elex Tuesday! In white rural AL HD12, Dems outran Harris by ~4%, finalizing the pre-EDay average at D+11.2% vs 2024 — a ~D+10 special elex environment. For reference, the special elex environment was D+10.7 going into 2023, and R+0.1 going into 2021.

Some may notice five Trump-won seats are rated Likely D (30/36/38). In Trump+46 LD30, Avi Schnall will almost certainly sweep the Orthodox Jews and easily prevail. Meanwhile, Rs straight up aren't trying in Trump+5 LD36, and hardly enough in Trump+0.1 LD38 to beat 2 incumbents.

In a lot of ways, this prediction's kinda a crapshoot. It's gonna depend HEAVILY on where Mikie's regionally stronger/weaker. A 2021-esque collapse in South Jersey may doom Dems in LD3/4/8. OTOH, a strong showing in Mikie's home base in Morris could lead to an upset in LD25.

I've got little inside info here, but my two-cents on the NJ Assembly election: Dems did good in 2023, winning 52/80 seats. So this year, they've got a 50/50 shot of gaining/losing seats. And no, even if Jack somehow wins, Rs have NO realistic chance of even TYING the Assembly.

Im no election law expert, but imma be real, this case looks like complete BS. I’ll believe the NY Court of Appeals is hackish enough to allow a Dem redraw when I see it. NY Dems much more likely to succeed by copying CA/VA & holding a redistricting referendum (albeit in 2027).

Frankly, the GOP's hypothetical path to tying the legislature doesn't even run through LD16 anymore. I dunno why they even bother here instead of, like, the literal Trump+5 district in South Bergen that the GOP is putting ZERO effort into.

I will never understand the delusion, among both NJ Dems and Rs, that a Harris+14 seat Dems won by 12% in 2023 is somehow competitive enough to merit spending a million bucks on. Heck, I even got one of the GOP digital ads for LD16. Straight up burning cash for 4 years in a row.

Ofc, donating to people and organizations you want support from is nothing new, and these folks REALLY need and appreciate the cash. Varela's also an open progressive, which attracts activist support. But just some context for all the local endorsements Varela's been racking up.