RT @BobKnorpp: The latest BeanCast is now available and it's one you'll DEFINITELY want to hear! @farrahbostic and @LosBuenos go deep on cr….

RT @ric23: The State Department has added Orbit to the Restricted List, thereby shutting down all formal channels for remittances from the….

RT @JessicaValenti: If you've saved any pertinent CDC docs, send them to me at tips@abortioneveryday.com and I'll host them on the site.

RT @JessicaValenti: The Trump administration is scrubbing the CDC’s website of documents on reproductive rights issues, sexual health, inti….

RT @johnmsides: In @Civiqs polling, Trump is 35-61 fav/unfav among 18-29 year olds. Maybe let's wait for some more data before we hot-take….

As good a time as any to tell you we are almost caught up uploading episodes of @CrossTabs_Pod to YouTube. You can find great conversations with @Mike_Podhorzer @lxeagle17 @ElectProject @aaronzitner @BenensonStrGrp @pewresearch @anilcacodcar @RachelBitecofer @web3isgreat & more.

After 2 years making a podcast about generational analysis, I'll give you the tl;dr:.It's astrology for marketers. It isn't even useful for segmenting target audiences. It's a grift. If you're using it to separate yourself from others you want to blame: congrats, you fell for it.

RT @johnmsides: 2) It exaggerates how much voters vote based on policy. So much polisci shows how difficult that is, and how in fact it's o….

I suspect that frustration with corrupt and/or ineffective Democratic governance in Blue states is playing a big role in red shifts in those states. [Stares in New York and New Jersey].

I am going to keep shouting from the rooftops that in general, this lifestage is the most conservative one people experience, regardless of whether they were born in 1972 or 1952 or 1932. Baby Boomers moved left. Millennials moved right. It's called aging.

I agree with @JVLast that most people “want this”. But I don’t agree that they know (or care that much) what “this” is.

I agree with this and then will trine it with @RachelBitecofer’s point that they also don’t care all that much. seems clearer that we’re in political fandom territory. Where not much “needs” to be known beyond heel v face, winner v underdog v loser….

But while I’m taking a moment with Leader Badenoch - I’d really love it if people like @campbellclaret and @RoryStewartUK might take a more clear-eyed view of her politics. It was all a bit rosy on your show the other day, I suspect you’re underestimating her at your own risk.

But while I’m taking a moment with Leader Badenoch - I’d really love it if people like @campbellclaret and @roryst.

RT @iPullRank: I ran 80,000 simulations and woke up in the wrong one apparently.

RT @CrossTabs_Pod: Communications expert Dr. Rachel Bitecofer examines how media ecosystems shape public discourse. Her research reveals im….

This is fine. But it’s a clue, not a narrative. We’re going to miss all of it if we think “it’s (only) the economy, stupid.”. If we make this the narrative we risk ret-conning objective measures to fit public perception. Perceptions matter, but they can reflect an unreality.

After 25+ interviews with experts on polling, forecasting, and political science, I think everyone needs to update not their statistical methods but their local knowledge, and accept that our theories of persuasion, party affiliation & candidate choice are … undertheorized.

We will never be able to rebuild democracy if we settle for a single simplest explanation. If we have to squint at the data to find reasons for behavior, then we don’t have the reasons inside the set. And we have to accept that the reasons might be bad & not rooted in policy.