Ethan Smith
@esmith1984
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Pollster and founder @UpswingRS | Pittsburgh native | 🏳️🌈
Washington, DC
Joined January 2011
💵💵💵: @SueAltman has already raised more than $250,000 since entering the NJ-12 race this morning, more than most of her Dem opponents have raised during their entire campaigns. https://t.co/IuaZIIdMjU
newjerseyglobe.com
Sue Altman, who launched her bid for New Jersey’s 12th congressional district just over 12 hours ago, has already raised more than $250,000, her campaign
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.@SueAltman – progressive activist, 2024 Dem nominee for NJ-7, and Andy Kim’s former state director – is officially back. Altman is launching her second campaign for Congress this morning, this time for the open NJ-12 seat that @RepBonnie is departing. https://t.co/8PBnWyc7eq
newjerseyglobe.com
A few years ago, when she was still the rabble-rousing state director of the New Jersey Working Families Party, the phrase “Congresswoman Sue Altman”
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Who is this for? She won a primary, so I guess it's for the special primary voters? I'm just not sure what this incessant whining is actually accomplishing.
Behn is on track to lose by 9% in an R+22 seat. That 13% overperformance is the worst of any Dem in a House special election in 2025 so far. A better candidate might not've made the difference, but nominating Behn is not what a party trying its hardest to win would've done.
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How is this different advice from the last two cycles? This feels like the real message is "don't do anything differently"
And if you placed this Build-A-Dem workshopped candidate into generative AI, they might resemble something like this:
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We're like 6 months away from someone unironically suggesting running an LLM for office
If you could build a perfect Democratic candidate in a lab what would they look like? Well we ran a Mad Libs style conjoint test and…we had fun with this one
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I guess we'll see when they release the data, but I suspect this is largely driven by Republicans having a more defined opinion of him than non-Republicans because Fox News is obsessed with him. This is exactly how AOC's numbers started out, too, by the way.
I took a deep dive into Zohran Mamdani’s numbers. I’m not sure if people realize this, but he is actually one of the most *unpopular* Democrats in the country in a way that Harris/Newsom/AOC are not. And it’s not even all that close, per our new poll. https://t.co/bP6PFXrQGq
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I am running for Congress to fight for DC -- to fight for our right to govern ourselves, for our families, for a fair economy, and for our safety. Join us! https://t.co/RRHZVj0bx8
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IL CD-7. Emergency room physician & ex-White House Fellow Thomas Fisher (D) becomes 13th Dem to enter open seat congressional race.
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He’s saying he doesn’t want to make New York affordable for everyone. Can’t have too much affordability because then his donors don’t make enough money.
Today, I am proud to announce that I will be proposing “Zohran’s law," a law that will keep the rich out of New York’s affordable housing. @ZohranKMamdani : you say freeze the rent. But for who? Rich people like you? Hardworking, working class New Yorkers are being pushed from
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PA Democratic Rep. Summer Lee’s motion to subpoena the Justice Department for a full, unredacted release of the Jeffrey Epstein files was approved on 8-2 vote by the House Oversight Subcmte on Federal Law Enforcement. 3 Republicans Jack-GA, Mace-SC & Perry-PA joined all Democrats
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This is why the Cuomo/Adams talk is silly. Cuomo has been a partisan Democrat for decades. Republicans don’t like him! The only path to defeat Zohran is to consolidate Republicans and pick off enough Dems. No one in this field can do it.
and sorry — which candidate is going to beat zohran (net fav +9)? is it sliwa (-18) or cuomo (-20) or adams (-41)?
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Sounds like someone who doesn’t see a path to victory
SCOOP: Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.) has told people close to him he won't challenge Josh Shapiro for Pennsylvania governor next year, weeks after President Trump said he'd endorse the congressman if he entered the race. for @ABC
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Everyone’s got a lot of thoughts about a primary poll 2.5 years out that only has 404 interviews
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I made this argument earlier. It works!
All this gnashing over some hypothetical future government-run grocery stores when across Pennsylvania the PLCB has 92 years of public service, making it one of the most enduring retail chains in American history.
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I really don't understand why the publicly owned grocery stores are a sticking point for histrionics about Zohran. PA does this with liquor stores. It produces revenue for the state, provides good jobs, and offers a cheaper product because they buy it wholesale.
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Brilliant idea sir. I can see why all of your presidential runs were so successful.
The best thing to happen to the Republican Party? A socialist winning a Democratic primary in New York City. In the midterms, every Democrat will be tied to the socialist.
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Really, really hard to nail the electorate when 25% of the electorate is new voters as was the case with early vote.
Part of the reason primary polling is so fraught with error is because it's really hard to model the electorate and to capture momentum, which can make it much more volatile when voters pick between candidates of the same party. That said, NYC polling this time was pure garbage.
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There's every indication that Zohran will run a smart, aggressive general election, but the most important factor here is that Eric Adams's favorables make Cuomo look beloved.
Eric Adams suddenly finds “overwhelming support” from NYC’s desperate business elites w @lizrhoffman
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