Defense Priorities
@defpriorities
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The hub of realism and restraint in Washington.
Washington, DC
Joined February 2016
NEW EXPLAINER SERIES: "Target Taiwan" Asia Program Director @lylegoldstein explores in great detail the scenario of an all-out Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Explore the series here:
defensepriorities.org
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Ukraine's postwar security arrangement is likely to be bespoke, designed to bridge its security concerns, as well as those of Russia, as best possible. @jekavanagh details what that model would look like in a new DEFP report ⬇️
defensepriorities.org
Summary Determining arrangements for Ukraine’s postwar security will be a critically important element of a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine […]
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In a new explainer first released by @ecfr, @jekavanagh and @JyShapiro examine the Russian threat to Estonia, given the state of Russia's forces, Estonia's defenses and NATO's evolving political-military posture. They analyze two scenarios for an Estonian contingency:
defensepriorities.org
Key points Estonia is a small, post-Soviet country with a Russian-speaking minority. It is also one of the most geographically […]
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🎧New on Brussels Sprouts🎧 @j_kobzova and @jekavanagh join @AKendallTaylor and @jteurope to discuss the current state of the war in Ukraine, U.S. and EU peace proposals, and how Putin’s calculus might change. Listen wherever you get your podcasts⬇️
cnas.org
Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.
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While Estonia’s is protected due to weakened Russian capabilities, stronger European defence cooperation and its own preparedness, NATO’s European members should be reassured but not complacent, argue @JyShapiro and Jennifer Kavanagh in a new report on the Russian threat in
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Here Jennifer makes the case that there *is* overlap between "good enough for us," "good enough for Ukraine," and "possible." Well worth a read.
Article 5-style guarantees to Ukraine are unrealistic, non-credible, & won't secure peace. My new report outlines Kyiv's best alternative & the most feasible path to a sustainable armistice: armed non-alignment that leaves Ukraine's military as its primary security guarantee.
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The tragic loss of U.S. personnel in Syria "demonstrates that keeping these indefinite deployments isn’t costless," as I told @thehill. ISIS can't threaten the homeland from Syria. Why leave U.S. targets there, vulnerable? @defpriorities
https://t.co/fHe6OGMOyj
thehill.com
The deadly attack in Syria that left three Americans dead has complicated the nascent relationship between the United States and Damascus and sparked speculation over how the Trump administration m…
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NEW EXPLAINER—"The bear in the Baltics: Reassessing the Russian threat in Estonia" by Director of Military Analysis @jekavanagh and @JyShapiro, originally published by @ecfr While Estonia's geography makes it vulnerable to a Russian invasion, it is also protected due to
defensepriorities.org
Key points Estonia is a small, post-Soviet country with a Russian-speaking minority. It is also one of the most geographically […]
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With conflicting rumors of peace between Russia and Ukraine, we’re joined by @jekavanagh discussing her report at @defpriorities, “An armed nonalignment model for Ukraine’s postwar security.”
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To remove Maduro by force, instead of letting change unfold organically, would be a dangerous gamble that risks entangling the U.S. in a new forever war—this time with higher stakes due to proximity. @RKelanic in @TIME:
time.com
The threats against Nicolás Maduro suggest the U.S. has forgotten the lesson from the Middle East, writes Rosemary Kelanic.
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This is 100% true. As I argue in my report on what armed non-alignment would look like for Ukraine: https://t.co/vGNzckDSLm
defensepriorities.org
Summary Determining arrangements for Ukraine’s postwar security will be a critically important element of a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine […]
Russians — and Ukrainians — have zero belief that the United States will go to war to defend Ukraine, whatever “platinum standard” piece of paper gets signed. Nothing short of deploying U.S. troops on the border of Donbas, which is not happening, would be a deterrent to the
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While the prewar status quo will not be acceptable to either Ukraine or Russia, @jekavanagh explores a possible model for Ukraine's postwar security that might satisfy competing concerns and demands: armed nonalignment. Read the newest DEFP report:
defensepriorities.org
Summary Determining arrangements for Ukraine’s postwar security will be a critically important element of a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine […]
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Article 5-style guarantees to Ukraine are unrealistic, non-credible, & won't secure peace. My new report outlines Kyiv's best alternative & the most feasible path to a sustainable armistice: armed non-alignment that leaves Ukraine's military as its primary security guarantee.
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The U.S. has avoided the worst spillover effects of its Middle East interventions thanks to its geographical distance from the region, but similar mayhem unleashed in Latin America would almost certainly blow back on the U.S. NEW from @RKelanic in @TIME:
time.com
The threats against Nicolás Maduro suggest the U.S. has forgotten the lesson from the Middle East, writes Rosemary Kelanic.
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Armed nonalignment is the most feasible approach to Ukraine's postwar security, @jekavanagh argues in a new DEFP report. It can ensure Ukraine's ability to defend itself and deter aggression while addressing Russia's security concerns and accounting for political and resource
defensepriorities.org
Summary Determining arrangements for Ukraine’s postwar security will be a critically important element of a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine […]
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The risks of toppling Maduro? A Middle East in our own backyard. See my latest @TIME @defpriorities
time.com
The threats against Nicolás Maduro suggest the U.S. has forgotten the lesson from the Middle East, writes Rosemary Kelanic.
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"American citizens are the ultimate losers here; their government is waging a war in their name based on a rationale they have to swallow without scrutiny."
Donald Trump hasn’t even bothered to make a case about why military action off Venezuela’s coast is in our national interest, writes Daniel DePetris.
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.@jekavanagh finds in her research that Ukraine will need about 245,000 active-duty forces and a reserve force of at least 345,000 to meet its security and deterrence needs. This will be close to the maximum force size that Ukraine can feasibly recruit and fiscally sustain.
defensepriorities.org
Summary Determining arrangements for Ukraine’s postwar security will be a critically important element of a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine […]
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"I think that it's too easy for us to forget that having these troops deployed all over the world is costly and risky most of the time," Middle East Director @RKelanic tells @MikeBrestDC for @dcexaminer.
washingtonexaminer.com
The ISIS fighter who killed three Americans in Syria over weekend highlighted the continuous U.S. military presence in the country.
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"Trump's overall goals in the strategy are quite conventional," @DanDePetris writes. "In Europe, U.S. officials are pressing the issue of burden sharing and incentivizing Washington's European allies to take more responsibility for their own security."
Daniel DePetris: The good and the bad in Donald Trump’s national security strategy
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In DEFP's newest report, Director of Military Analysis @jekavanagh proposes a version of armed nonalignment for Ukraine that excludes membership in military alliances such as NATO, but provides Ukraine the military capabilities it needs to deter future attacks and defend itself
defensepriorities.org
Summary Determining arrangements for Ukraine’s postwar security will be a critically important element of a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine […]
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