Defense Priorities
@defpriorities
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The hub of realism and restraint in Washington.
Washington, DC
Joined February 2016
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NEW EXPLAINER: Non-Resident Fellow Mike Sweeney explores important questions about the Chinese Navy's ability to contest the United States on a global scale.
Read now:
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.
@WillRuger
: “Getting out of Afghanistan is good policy.”
President Trump is scrambling, in the waning days of his presidency, to fulfill one goal he has nurtured since the 2016 campaign: withdrawing all American troops from Afghanistan. He is aided by conservative antiwar forces.
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"For the United States, my hope is that our government might finally learn from its mistakes in Afghanistan and reorient our foreign policy away from constant military intervention and doomed attempts to remake far-flung societies in America's image."
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243
.
@BH_Friedman
on
@IngrahamAngle
: The demise of ISIS means there is nothing left worth fighting to win there.
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NEW DEFP livestream on Feb 23 will feature
@kofmanmichael
,
@massdara
,
@rajan_menon_
, and
@alexbward
as they discuss what the next few months of the war hold for Ukraine, Russia, and the West. Could fighting in the spring prove decisive?
Register here:
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31
113
.
@conor64
is right:
@realDonaldTrump
now owns the war in Yemen. His veto of a congressional effort to end U.S. involvement violates the public will and the national interest.
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Washington's explanation for the war "fails to account for the well-documented—and perfectly comprehensible—objections that Russians have expressed toward NATO expansion over the past three decades."
Christopher Layne on the dangers of American hubris:
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“I think they’re probably loath to completely destroy so much critical infrastructure because their hope was that they could swoop in and have a more or less intact Ukraine,"
@gavinbwilde
tells
@JackDetsch
in
@ForeignPolicy
.
0
15
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The cost of maintaining U.S. forces in the Middle East is extraordinary, at least $65–70 billion each year, apart from the trillions spent on wars there.
Nothing about the Middle East warrants such U.S. investment.
Read more here:
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19
52
There is one myth that should be immediately discarded:
The idea that absent U.S. withdrawal, the conflict in Afghanistan was in a sustainable stalemate, writes Senior Fellow Gil Barndollar in
@Diplomat_APAC
.
0
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47
.
@NickKristof
is right. Saudi Arabia is not a U.S. ally, and nothing about it warrants treating it like one.
I hear lots of talk among those opposing sanctions on MBS about how we shouldn't do this to an ally. But Saudi Arabia is not an ally. It never has been. It has been an important partner, but we have no mutual defense pact. An old article on this point:
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Reducing the number of American troops in Iraq from 5,200 to 3,500 is a welcome start and long overdue—and should be continued until all U.S. forces are out.
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The Defense Department has been required to open its book for a full audit every year since 1995 & it never once has
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The U.S. troop presence in Germany is a legacy of the Cold War. Russia is a shell of its former self. A wealthy Europe has the wherewithal to take responsibility for its own security.
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The U.S. has become a “Phantom Empire,” a country that appears to be powerful because it has a robust military presence abroad but cannot use garrisoned forces to achieve geopolitical objectives, writes
@RichardHanania
in our newest explainer.
Read more:
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It is irresponsible "to tell the American people that the desired outcome is possible when all evidence screams that it’s not – and downright cruel to the Ukrainian Armed Forces and civilian population," writes
@DanielLDavis1
in
@19_forty_five
5
11
32
76% of Americans support bringing U.S. troops home from Afghanistan, says a recent
@CKinstitute
poll.
73% favor decreasing or withdrawing U.S. troops from Germany, says the
@ChicagoCouncil
poll.
There are also important strategic reasons for the moves.
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Sanctions dilute U.S. power over time, as states seek alternatives to the U.S.-dominated financial system that exposes them to punishment.
They increase tension, impose hardship on civilian populations, and can create long-term hostility.
Read more here:
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The Middle East is a small, poor, weak region beset by an array of problems that mostly do not affect Americans—and that U.S. forces cannot fix.
The best thing the United States can do is leave.
Read our explainer by
@JustinTLogan
from September 2020:
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"The desire to assist Ukraine is understandable, but a U.S.-backed no-fly zone would be an impractical—and dangerous—escalatory move," writes
@DanDePetris
in
@NRO
.
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14
30
"Zelensky may scoff at the notion of a ceasefire, but as the fighting persists, he can't ignore a scenario whereby some Western leaders who are now committed supporters of Ukraine's position begin to re-evaluate their policy."
@DanDePetris
@Newsweek
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5
27
The U.S.-NATO-Russia-Ukraine crisis could be resolved by a grand bargain among the parties that defines Ukraine as a neutral state, writes Stephen Van Evera of
@MITPoliSci
in a new explainer for
@defpriorities
.
Read more here:
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Iran spent as much money on its entire military as we spend on a single aircraft carrier. This is a mouse and elephant situation...Iran cannot pose a vital threat to America.
@reason
@bonniekristian
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The U.S. could reduce its presence in the Middle East by as many as 50,000 military personnel over four years, writes
@defpriorities
fellow Mike Sweeney (
@mister_outside
) in our newest explainer.
Read "A plan for U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East":
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28
"It is crucial ... that the United States in particular, and the West in general, base policy on the combat realities in Ukraine - and not recklessly seek an unattainable outcome," write
@TulsiGabbard
and
@DanielLDavis1
in
@ForeignPolicy
6
12
26
The U.S. has spent $7.8 billion since 2008 on buildings and vehicles in Afghanistan, most of it wasted.
Nation building has been a total failure.
The U.S. should instead focus on a strict counterterrorism mission and withdraw its troops before May 1.
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23
As long as 900 U.S. troops remain in Syria, Washington needlessly prolongs the civil war and risks unnecessary escalation with the Syrian government, Iran, and Russia.
All U.S. troops should withdraw and focus on higher priorities.
A US soldier looks on while on patrol by the Suwaydiyah oil fields in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province.
#AFP
📸
@Delilsouleman
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8
23
Help us welcome Lyle J. Goldstein to
@defpriorities
as Director of our new Asia Engagement program.
The program's mission is to operationalize and promote a strategy of restraint for the U.S. in Asia.
Read more here:
0
3
23
The anti-ISIS mission in Iraq is over for the United States.
Full U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Syria would push local forces to take the lead in dealing with ISIS's remnants, while staying will cost lives and money, as well as risk greater conflict.
0
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15
There is no longer any valid military mission for U.S. troops in Syria to accomplish, writes
@DanielLDavis1
. They should be withdrawn in their entirety.
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22
The Middle East is a small, poor, weak region beset by an array of problems that mostly do not affect Americans—and that U.S. forces cannot fix.
The best thing the United States can do is leave.
Read our new explainer by
@JustinTLogan
here:
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10
22
"Russia is a problem to be managed pragmatically and with coolheaded realism. The more we lose sight of this situation and instead overstate the Russian threat, the more difficult the relationship will become," writes
@shifrinson
in
@Newsweek
.
1
9
22
The militarization of U.S. policy in Africa has expanded without even cursory debate about whether conducting simultaneous counterterrorism operations across the African continent is necessary, writes
@DanDePetris
in
@Newsweek
.
0
7
21
The cost of maintaining U.S. forces in the Middle East is extraordinary, at least $65–70 billion each year, apart from the trillions spent on wars there.
Nothing about the Middle East warrants such U.S. investment.
Read more here:
0
5
17
The U.S. mission in Syria should be to withdraw all U.S. troops right away, writes
@michaelryhall
in
@TheNatlInterest
.
0
8
21
NEW STATEMENT:
@DanDePetris
on U.S. strikes in Syria and Iraq today as retaliation for the drone attack that killed three U.S. troops on the Jordan-Syria border earlier this week.
Read the entire statement here:
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The U.S. has provided $2.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine since 2014.
Military aid stokes the false idea in Kyiv that the U.S. would fight to protect Ukraine from Russia.
The U.S. has no interest in Ukraine that warrants risking war with Russia.
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9
18
The Middle East is a small, poor, weak region beset by an array of problems that mostly do not affect Americans—and that U.S. forces cannot fix. The best thing the United States can do is leave.
Read our latest explainer by
@JustinTLogan
at the link.
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@daveckang
@USCKSI
@PeterHarrisCSU
@SusanShirk1
@21CenturyChina
@lylegoldstein
For related reading, see "Why Vietnam is not balancing China: Vietnamese security priorities and the dynamics in Sino-Vietnam relations" by
@daveckang
5
0
2
Ukraine isn’t joining NATO, and NATO is not going to defend Ukraine.
A neutral Ukraine, aligned with neither the West nor Russia, is the best policy for the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe.
Read more about neutrality from Stephen Van Evera here:
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11
18
Ukraine is not worth a costly confrontation for the U.S. Hence, U.S. leaders should be open to compromise, writes Stephen Van Evera in our newest explainer.
Read more here:
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U.S. military support for Saudi-led war in Yemen should end. It prolongs, exacerbates the civil war, increasing AQAP's presence there; needlessly breeds new enemies, resentment toward the U.S.; and undermines our standing as an exemplar of liberal values.
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NATO should defend Europe, not pivot to Asia, writes
@jgerberpl
in our newest explainer.
Naval deployments by the U.K., France, and Germany are symbolic and unlikely to affect the balance of power in Asia.
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10
18
Defense Priorities is pleased to announce its new Grand Strategy program—which seeks to operationalize and promote a U.S. foreign policy of restraint—as well as the program’s new Director,
@rajan_menon_
.
Read more here:
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9
19
New polling from
@ConcernedVets
shows 73% of veterans support the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan. An overdue end to the longest war in U.S. history is not only the strongest policy, but also popular.
@DanDePetris
1
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We need to talk about Saudi arms sales. Before we double down, is an open debate in Congress too much to ask?
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The U.S. presence in Syria achieves nothing more than postponing an unavoidable fate, writes
@narmbruster_fp
.
"It is time to face the music: Assad is staying in power. Russian and Iranian support have propped him up despite the best efforts of the U.S."
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10
17
Ukraine isn’t joining NATO, and NATO is not going to defend Ukraine.
A neutral Ukraine, aligned with neither the West nor Russia, is the best policy for the U.S., Ukraine, and Europe.
Read more about neutrality from Stephen Van Evera here:
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3
17
The Taliban are at war with ISIS-K, the main transnational terrorist threat in Afghanistan.
Narrow and opportunistic cooperation with the Taliban against groups such as ISIS-K can further reduce the low chances of an attack on the U.S.
Read more here:
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5
15
If Milley did indeed negotiate with a foreign military rival without authorization, he violated the longstanding American political tradition that the military is subordinate to elected civilian leaders, writes
@DanielLDavis1
in
@guardian
.
1
4
17
The pace at which the Afghan security forces have crumbled only underscores the futile nature of banking on a corrupt government in Kabul, says
@DanielLDavis1
to
@nahaltoosi
@paulmcleary
@alexbward
and
@BryanDBender
in
@politico
.
1
4
17
"America is already burdened by having to provide security guarantees for 29 other countries. Adding two more countries – especially one that has a large land border with nuclear-armed Russia – is adding risk," writes
@DanielLDavis1
in
@19_forty_five
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4
17
The 500 U.S. troops still in eastern Syria "have no valid military mission," writes
@DanielLDavis1
in
@DefenseOne
. "We should never risk the lives of American troops in combat missions abroad that are not tied directly to American national security."
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What core lessons should be drawn from the U.S. war in Afghanistan?
In our new symposium, read insights from leading scholars and experts who—unlike the architects and proponents of the 20-year war—were right about U.S.-Afghanistan policy.
Read here:
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12
17
Saudi Arabia is not a U.S. ally, and the U.S. can meet its narrow interests in the Middle East without providing unconditional support to Saudi Arabia.
Read our recent explainer by
@DanDePetris
on recalibrating U.S.-Saudi relations:
0
7
16
"Despite Russia being the second-most sanctioned state by the U.S. over the past decade, Russian foreign policy hasn't changed in any considerable way," writes
@DanDePetris
in
@Newsweek
.
3
11
16
The failures of the U.S. war in Afghanistan reveal a need for deeper introspection into what has gone wrong with American democracy and its institutions—including the story of failed expertise, writes
@RichardHanania
in
@nytimes
.
0
4
16
The U.S. should move toward “burden shifting” that begins with reductions in American forces and eventually leads to European self-sufficiency in defense and the elimination of a permanent U.S. military presence.
Read more from
@rajan_menon_
here:
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2
18
This would be a mistake. This is not withdrawal.
The latest inside scoop from
@JimLaPorta
and myself—U.S. has a plan to send tanks and troops to "secure" Syria's oil fields, even as other soldiers withdraw.
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4
15
Data from
@MorningConsult
reveals that Americans' are primarily concerned about foreign policy issues that involve domestic security concerns, such as terrorism and immigration. "Upholding democracy globally" was not reported as a priority among registered voters.
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7
18
It is time for U.S. troops to leave Syria, writes
@DanDePetris
in our recent explainer.
Maintaining the current deployment prolongs the civil war, exacerbates suffering as a result of the war's continuation, and risks drawing the U.S. into wider conflict.
0
5
16
Saudi Arabia is not a U.S. ally, and the U.S. can meet its narrow interests in the Middle East without providing unconditional support to Saudi Arabia.
Read our newest explainer on recalibrating U.S.-Saudi relations by
@DanDePetris
:
1
11
15
U.S. interests should guide Russia policy—not an urge to dispense justice for its numerous sins.
Inflating the threat Russia poses to the U.S.—or confusing its violations of liberal values with hard security interests—risks conflict that could go nuclear.
0
9
17
Today, NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg said that all NATO members have agreed that Ukraine will eventually join the military alliance. Defense Priorities Policy Director
@BH_Friedman
issued the following statement in response:
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8
16
Keeping a U.S. military presence in Syria risks the lives of U.S. troops for no clear mission and no clear benefit to U.S. security.
It’s reckless, wasteful, and unnecessary.
It undermines U.S. strength.
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9
16
"Realistically speaking, it is as close to impossible for Ukraine to successfully pull off an offensive in Kherson as can be imagined. ... Ukraine wouldn’t just need one miracle to succeed, they would need three," writes
@DanielLDavis1
in
@19_forty_five
2
5
16
No core U.S. interest today requires a military presence in Iraq, writes
@DanDePetris
in our newest explainer.
Read “Leaving Iraq serves U.S. interests” at the link:
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8
17
U.S. troops in Syria are in confrontation with other military forces, for no clear objective, all while risking not only their lives but also an accidental escalation of conflict with major powers.
It’s time to remove U.S. troops from Syria.
A longer video of the confrontation. US forces appear to be blocking a road and then attempt to block the path of the Russian patrol when they drive through the field. An American MaxxPro MRAP appears to collide with a Russian Typhoon-K MRAP. 319/
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1K
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7
13
"One of the biggest myths that continues to hover over the U.S. foreign policy establishment like a dense fog is the notion that the U.S. will not be safe from transnational terrorism until Afghanistan is stabilized," writes
@DanDePetris
in
@Newsweek
.
2
6
16
NATO membership for Ukraine is infeasible for a number of reasons, not least questions of defensibility.
The alliance and the U.S. should therefore abandon their public position supporting Ukraine’s eventual membership.
Read more here:
0
3
14
.
@defpriorities
is pleased to announce Gavin Wilde (
@gavinbwilde
) has joined the organization as a Non-Resident Fellow.
1
3
15
ISIS has not mounted any deliberate attacks on coalition forces in over two years, and ISIS's territorial caliphate is nonexistent.
Yet U.S. troops are regularly targeted by Iraqi militias, for no benefit to the U.S.
All U.S. troops should be removed.
2
3
14
In
@Newsweek
's debate with
@poroshenko
,
@DanDePetris
argues, "If Putin knows that Ukraine will be invited into the alliance after the war is over, he will have even more reason to fight in order to prevent that outcome."
1
7
15
Keeping U.S. forces in the region courts war. The need to remove them has never been more urgent.
A reminder that there are tens of thousands of U.S. troops in the Middle East, all within range of Iran’s missile inventory should this thing blow up into a regional war (which I still believe Iran and Israel don’t want). The U.S. force presence is a liability, not an asset.
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0
3
16
Withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq and Syria would reduce the risks of war and aid President Biden’s efforts to pursue diplomacy with Iran and salvage the JCPOA, as
@RichardHanania
writes in a recent explainer.
Read more here:
0
7
15
There are no core U.S. security interests at stake in Ukraine, a country that is geographically distant from the U.S. and is not a NATO ally.
Read more here:
2
7
16
.
@lylegoldstein
and
@elbridgecolby
discuss Chinese military capabilities, a Taiwan contingency, AUKUS, and more on
@cspanwj
.
0
6
16
"As anguishing as it may be for Kyiv to negotiate with Russia from its current disadvantaged position, it could well prove to be the best chance Ukraine has to maintain control over the majority of its territory," writes
@DanielLDavis1
in
@19_forty_five
3
4
14
North Korea’s latest provocations do not change the facts that:
1) U.S. power successfully deters North Korea from using nuclear weapons.
2) North Korea has no real incentive to denuclearize.
3) Full denuclearization is not essential to U.S. security.
1
7
15
The February 2020 agreement stipulated U.S. troops would leave Afghanistan within 14 months.
The Biden administration extended that deadline further to September 2021.
Neither qualifies as "abrupt."
1
6
12
Explicit or implicit, military or non-military, threats of regime change are dangerous and counterproductive.
The U.S. and its partners should make clear that sanctions are designed to end the war, not change Russia’s political order.
Read more here:
0
7
15
"Any unilateral U.S. military action in Mexico would risk the collapse of a neighboring country of 130 million people. It could unleash civil war and a humanitarian crisis that would dwarf those in Iraq and Syria," writes Gil Barndollar in
@TheAtlantic
.
0
11
15
"The stakes in Syria do not merit Americans dying," writes
@GeoffLaMear
in
@Newsweek
.
"The mission—whatever it's billed as—doesn't protect the United States."
2
4
15
Today, President Joe Biden spoke from the White House, saying he is convinced Russia will invade Ukraine.
Defense Priorities Policy Director Benjamin H. Friedman (
@BH_Friedman
) issued the following statement in response:
3
3
15
In a new media backgrounder, DEFP Senior Fellow and Military Expert
@DanielLDavis1
provides analysis on the latest in the Ukraine-Russia war:
1
7
15
"…the war in Afghanistan needs to be brought to an end. Mr. Putin’s intelligence services shouldn’t get a say in what is in the best interests of the United States."
The Trump administration’s response to allegations of Russian bounties raises critical questions about whether it is focusing sufficient attention on the plight of American soldiers.
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8
12
0
6
12
Two-thirds of U.S. veterans and majorities of military families and the general U.S. public support a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and Iraq, a recent poll by
@ConcernedVets
and
@YouGov
found.
0
4
14
“While it is entirely understandable that no Ukrainian leader would ever want to cede any of its country to an invading power, there are other, harsher realities that must be taken into account,” writes
@DanielLDavis1
in
@19_forty_five
0
7
14
Lyle Goldstein is joining Defense Priorities to lead a new Asia Engagement program, notes
@politico
.
1
5
12
It is time for U.S. troops to leave Syria, writes
@DanDePetris
in a recent explainer.
Maintaining the current deployment prolongs the civil war, exacerbates suffering as a result of the war's continuation, and risks drawing the U.S. into wider conflict.
1
9
13
.
@DanDePetris
writes on Afghanistan in the New York Times:
"A withdrawal would not be a favor to Russia; it would be a favor to ourselves and a belated acknowledgment that long military deployments very often have negative, unforeseen consequences."
1
7
12
"I don't think the United States is prepared to go to war in Ukraine. I don't think the United States is prepared to go to war over Taiwan,"
@lylegoldstein
tells
@ShaolinTom
in
@Newsweek
.
0
6
12
U.S. officials owe the public the truth about the war in Afghanistan—the U.S. has won all it can. Afghanistan’s political problems are disconnected from U.S. security. The forever war should end.
0
3
14
The U.S. has no compelling reason to allow the crisis in Ukraine to precipitate a U.S.-Russia war, one that could escalate into a nuclear confrontation.
Read more here:
3
5
14
NEW STATEMENT: U.S. forces in Taiwan—a massive risk, minuscule military benefit.
From
@BH_Friedman
:
0
8
12
.
@DanielLDavis1
to
@JulieBanderas
on
@FoxNews
: the U.S. should treat Saudi Arabia as neither a friend nor an enemy, but a normal autocracy that we do business with but do not praise, sponsor, or serve.
0
9
14