Tan Cheng@GMF Research
@ch376364150
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PhD of Finance，CFA ，Ex SAFE Senior Economist, Founder of GMF Research
Joined August 2019
1\Regarding the recent discussions on the significant widening of CDS premiums for Oracle and CoreWeave, many are questioning whether this signals an impending bubble burst. 2\Here, I provide a historical perspective: In the bubble phase, simultaneous rises in technology stocks
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For anyone who is interested, my weekly labor market indicator recap. Link: https://t.co/NpKyDPsd3i
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The White House has shared photos of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s first face-to-face meeting in more than six years, including this intriguing sequence. h/t @ByChunHan
https://t.co/r8LBbIa0i3
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Why can't the Canadian government keep negotiating low prices? Put simply, under reference pricing, drug companies would rather leave Canada than lower their US prices too much. Luca Maini has an incredible paper examining this phenomenon in Europe: https://t.co/DOXIL9mhdO
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Another classic leading indicator for the labor market looking shaky.
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Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been. The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true. On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!
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The dark black line, stretching from Bernie Sanders to Dick Cheney (per @jennifernvictor) held up as the 2024 cleavage in American politics last night (with some caveats). (At some point we’ll make a new one with more contemporary names…but still holds.)
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One of the core differences between Mao and Xi is seen in their answers to this question: how will the Party escape China's historic cycle of dynastic rise and fall? This is a question both have explicitly posed and answered. For Xi, the answer is "self-revolution," a vision of
This is a tangentially related thought I had while reading this: One of the ironies of so much writing about Xi as a new Mao is that in fact Xi is a *betrayer* of Mao. Mao turned against the new class system he saw forming via the Soviet/Stalinist developmental variant as China
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PBoC Gold Conduit Revealed—Chinese Central Bank Did Not Stop Buying Gold in May This article is an analysis of how the Chinese central bank (PBoC) buys gold in London from Western bullion banks. Because the bullion banks take care of the gold transport for the PBoC, the
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@AndreasSteno Regardless, I don’t think the magnitudes of the impacts to TX vs MI temp layoffs would make much sense given the relative real world weather effects. Also, the auto plant retooling impacts make a lot more sense to me for why MI had a larger temp layoff surge.
Jobless claims dropped sharply week-over-week to 233k from an upwardly revised 250k, a bit more than expected (consensus: 240k). Some of the transitory effects I highlighted last week faded more quickly than expected. https://t.co/3UBtHHyOD9 Most notably, Michigan's auto
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famous last words, but it would be unusual if a recession started with private-sector balance sheets like this
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It’s interesting to think through what Yellen is actually saying when she asks China to address its “industrial overcapacity”, particularly in fields like solar panels or EVs. First of all, what is “industrial overcapacity”? The official definition for it is “when an industry's
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen kicked off her first full day of official meetings in China with discussion about overcapacity concerns and encouragement to pursue market-oriented reforms. https://t.co/dgq8acG4iH
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Primary dealers added a bit of inventory late last year, but have been flat on coupons >2yrs this year. Given balance sheet constraints we are unlikely to see big demand from dealers to add to their balance sheets.
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Sharing my Lecture Notes on International Finance for my PhD class. Mostly my own study notes, with efforts to clean up and organize with a coherent structure. I learned a ton from writing it, and I hope this is useful to others as well. Comments welcome! https://t.co/HSl6VR19TU
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