Hard to overstate just how rapid the changes in US party coalitions have been. The Democrats are now the party of high education *and* high income voters. Just 12 years ago, the inverse was true. On these terms, the Trump coalition was closer to Obama 2008 than the Harris one!

You can read more on this ‒ including a message-testing case study on how the aid sector could restore support ‒ on our blog 👇.

In-donor refugee costs and misinformation around where aid is spent are both damaging support for the aid sector.

Overseas aid is by far the UK public's lowest spending priority ‒ almost off-the-charts bad.

Voters across the four countries we studied basically don't trust their government to deliver anything. Overseas aid is the area where governments are least trusted to spend money well. Unsurprising, then, that unpopular govts are cutting aid while increasing defence spending.

Net Zero has quietly become a culture-war issue, and is now almost as politically-divisive as multiculturalism.

We've just released a new white paper here at @focaldataHQ, explaining why support for overseas aid has fallen among both voters and governments in the West, and why Net Zero risks going the same way. 🧵 Quick thread of some of the findings:.

Small sample sizes so would be careful overinterpreting, but some evidence of the gender polarisation among the young here. Reform on 25% with male 16-17 year olds vs 10% with female.

Tables: Write-up:

Latest Westminster voting intention from us at @focaldataHQ sees minor impact of votes at 16 (Reform's lead cut from 3.7 points to 3.3)

Interesting stat: last three winners have only received 1 set of 12 points from the public between them, when Ukraine gave Switzerland 12 last year.

Suspect there’ll continue to be calls for televote reform next year, possibly introducing demoscopic juries? Televoting has become very dominated by different countries’ diaspora votes in recent years, which doesn’t feel sustainable for the future of the contest.

Tails it is… congrats to Austria!. A very profitable evening for me.

The above results are from 5,000 simulations. As for the UK, another 0 public points may well be on the cards, but some mild jury love may be enough to keep us off the bottom of the scoreboard.

Final forecast for tonight's Eurovision final. The model is based on a combination of historical voting patterns, running order analysis, betting odds, and my own subjective opinion. Basically a coin flip that Sweden 🇸🇪 gets its 8th victory tonight.

And for tonight (in order of qualification chance). 🟢 Qs: 🇮🇱🇫🇮🇦🇹🇱🇹🇱🇺🇦🇺🇦🇲🇬🇷🇲🇹🇷🇸.🔴 NQs: 🇨🇿🇱🇻🇩🇰🇮🇪🇬🇪🇲🇪.

It's that time of the year again. quick Eurovision prediction for tonight's first semi-final:. 🟢 Qs: 🇸🇪🇪🇪🇳🇱🇦🇱🇺🇦🇳🇴🇵🇱🇨🇾🇧🇪🇸🇮.🔴 NQs: 🇸🇲🇮🇸🇦🇿🇵🇹🇭🇷. I'll do a full stats-based forecast ahead of the final on Saturday once I've seen the full performances.

RT @BNHWalker: Eyes on this please.

Labour about to fall into *sixth* here including independents.

RT @BritainElects: Throston (Hartlepool) council election result:. REF: 58.3% (+47.4).LAB: 31.8% (-18.4).CON: 9.9% (+9.9). Reform GAIN from….

If Reform finish fourth as BE is predicting — despite where they’re starting from, the overall narrative may be one of a disappointing performance. If *Labour* finishes fourth, the next few months are likely to be very difficult indeed.