Basile Genève
@basileSportif
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New megathread of my threads & articles, by topic.
First up, the BlockDollar: how crypto can be financial rails for "light", low-margin things:
First Longform Piece:
The Blockdollar
Answering:
- why doesn't crypto have (many) productive assets on it?
- what does crypto do better than digitized fintech + web2?
- (implicitly, bonus) what is the "new meta" to take us out of this bear?
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1; Eth Censorship (95% FUD, 5% todo list)
People asked me my opinion on the "51% censored blocks!!" MEV Watch graph that's been making the rounds, so here goes.
No original opinions here: this topic is well-covered and well-understood. I'll link those resources at the end.
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@antoniogm
Isn't it possible that it's a thing because Euros are shockingly poor, relative to Americans?
I live in Milan, and going to the US after awhile away is jarring because there is obviously so much more money at all levels.
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@ByrneHobart
tbf said company enabled it by giving you hundreds of millions of $$ in their Chuck-E-Cheese tokens and then taking out billions (!) of $$ of loans against those tokens
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1/ Urbit: It's All Happening Now
Urbit narratives have exploded since early 2022, when the ecosystem realized and became confident that:
- Urbit has a killer use case: apps integrated with crypto
- Urbit's OS is more fun/productive for devs
- crypto needs this OS desperately
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When is Urbit ready for you? Depends who you are.
- high-openness early adopter: now
- technically savvy investor: now
- aggressive dev: now
- dev who likes smooth devX: October
- killer-app-needing user: Q2 2023
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A quick look at
@nic__carter
's article on Eth slashing.
tldr; the entire article is based on a major factual error. Hopefully Nic will correct this and re-write it, since it substantially alters the argument.
What's the factual error?
"The desire to simply confiscate the funds of designated wrongdoers is seductive, but completely short sighted. It’s the same impulse that drives all campaigns of nationalization, expropriation and collectivization."
Opinion
@nic__carter
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First Longform Piece:
The Blockdollar
Answering:
- why doesn't crypto have (many) productive assets on it?
- what does crypto do better than digitized fintech + web2?
- (implicitly, bonus) what is the "new meta" to take us out of this bear?
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Looks an awful lot like the Netherlands arrested first, and is now frantically searching for a crime.
A truly foul country.
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1; Software Is Stuck, Part I
The Stuck Mentality
People in software, aged 35-55, have a surprisingly strong shared story about the state of software, and how we got here.
It's a shared myth about shattered innocence.
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Demo of Uqbar's Pyro engine.
This can boot an entire virtual network of peer computers (connected to Uqbar) in 1 second.
They can then be used for "repling" p2p crypto apps.
GUI UI for this (Ziggurat) is also moving ahead rapidly.
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Hearing "hello young Ivy League striver, come work for Open Philanthropy on AI safety" ads
on
@dwarkesh_sp
's pod is a very "ohhhhhh this all makes sense now" moment.
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1; The Mundane Singularity
If enough capital and talent flow into crypto in the next 5-15 years, we are highly likely to get the following:
- cycling of elites
- reallocation of capital
- totally new networks of power
- increase in software dev speed
all while.....
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1: One funny thing about the Bitcoiner "PoS Eth is a security; shut it down, Gensler!!" thing is that the cashflows from staking Eth are almost the definition of "not a security."
You have to do substantial non-commoditized work to set up a node, secure keys, config software...
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6; This presents ~zero censorship risk.
Why?
Because 48% of validators will include your Tornado tx, and all the rest will build on those blocks. Your dirty tx is going to get in just fine.
Even just a couple % of honest validators is sufficient to stop this "censorship."
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1; Software Is Stuck, Part II
How It Happened
You don't hit a local maximum on purpose.
You get there accidentally and enthusiastically, with each step taking you closer to the top of the hill you think will be the highest.
In our case, server-side coding worked too well.
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23; Takeaways/Conclusion:
- Eth is fine right now, and frog-boiling concerns are misplaced/handleable
- REAL 51% attacks can be handled, but staking withdrawals are critical for this
- Bitcoiner takes like this are retarded:
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My mildly contrarian thesis is that Eth would do better than BTC in a total dollar system collapse because people would **REALLY** need to be able to do arbitrarily complex stuff with their money in that scenario.
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It makes me sad when a person's kneejerk reaction to interesting new technology is to immediately snark about how it's dystopian or lame or tainted-because-bigtech.
You're allowed to like things, interesting things are allowed to get made, and half the shit you use is bigtech.
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@amasad
He says right after that that is was mostly due to US security state attention, and that ruled out the US in general.
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This is why I'm very convinced the "Multichain Future" is dumb VC bagholder shit.
Bridges SUCK.
They suck in many different, interconnected, and fragile ways.
Rollups dominate them, almost strictly.
I used to hold btc on Ethereum. I had been used to holding various kinds, including wbtc, renbtc, and tbtc, but after seeing Ren just say they're going to shut down leaving all remaining erc20 renbtc worthless soon, I won't hold any erc20 btc again.
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1; FTX Reaction: Simps vs. Chads
Simps on suicide watch post-FTX
- contagion
- institutions not coming back
- regulation coming!!
- what's the catalyst now
- I've had it with this industry
They don't *really* believe in crypto and want existing money to buy bags, bc of reasons
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1; Crypto Is Latent Money
Crypto haters and boosters both misdiagnose crypto and crypto projects because they try to think of them as products.
However, crypto is more of a weird, unexploited discovery, which you could call "latent money".
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My conclusion after Eth Denver is that Uqbar is the most technically ambitious/interesting full-scale project in crypto, and it's not particularly close.
(There are many **AMAZING** projects and primitives being built, but they are components without the totalizing ambition.)
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One of the most bullish things about Eth is the amount of misunderstanding and misinformation surrounding it.
Nearly everything in this thread is "not even wrong", in the way that makes knowledgeable people with even moderately high IQs bang their heads on the table.
Same people that thought Sam would become emperor of the world also believe Vitalik is the second coming of Einstein himself.
You’re placing a venture bet on someone who’s literally making it up on the fly, riddled with execution and political risks.
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The native Portuguese failed to take advantage of their beautiful geography and weather.
So now they are being replaced by elite human capital that is more deserving of this bounty.
This is a happy story, no irony whatsoever.
Lisbon is a premier example of how the modern European city betrays its own people
The average native Portugese income is €900 a month - I met a doctor making €1400 a month - they are taxed at 45%
Yet, there’s a Tax plan that allows rich foreigners to pay 0% tax
Ontop of…
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2; The graphic (as used on Twitter to score InternetPointz) is clearly intended to evoke fears of a 51% attack in PoW, or of the similar thresholds in PoS.
That is not what's happening here.
HUGE difference between:
- creating/validating a block
&
- building on prior blocks
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1/ Devs Are Oil
"Devs are to the 21st century what oil was to the 20th" holds up really well as an analogy imo.
- necessary resource for the most powerful economic engines
- unevenly distributed globally
- talent required to fully exploit the resource
Lots of implications
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Urbit: No More Disclaimers
Up until now, I've said things like "X crypto use case needs an OS (maybe Urbit, maybe something else").
I'm done with caveats.
Nothing else is remotely close; nothing is on the horizon.
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@antoniogm
Look man, I enjoy the cheap, amazing espresso and quality food.
There are other measures besides money with which to measure quality of life, but the US clearly has way more money than Europe does. I don't see the point of redefining the metric to make wealth be something else.
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1; AI CultureWar Battle Lines I: The Pro-Acc Side
I said yesterday that AI discourse was pattern-matching Feb 2020 Covid discourse, and doing so very strongly.
That trend has accelerated in the past 24 hours.
"Society has started waking up to AGI; like covid, the societal response will probably be a dumpster-fire, but it’ll also probably be quite intense."
This seems right to me.
March 2023 pattern-matches **VERY** hard against Feb-March 2020: slowly, slowly, more, more.....RESPONSE
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People really don't get how much the last 72 hours has de-risked Eth PoS.
Not going to spell it out if you don't get it, but as a hint, go back and read all the stuff people were worried about in August wrt Eth.
Totally different ballgame now, on several dimensions.
Coinbase says Kraken news will not affect their staking program
Sources say they’re willing to fight SEC on this issue
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The difference between very good lawyers and elite lawyers is that very good lawyers tell you reasonable, well-researched reasons why you can't do X, and elite lawyers pull out all the stops to find the one way in which you can do X.
Lawyer: Here’s why you can’t do that.
Client: Hmm. Okay, well, I came here for ideas about how I *can* do it.
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Can we just use normal names and make good tools so that good developers who get interested can come on easily?
The metaphors were fun at one time, but it's all getting too precious and twee, and feels like an attempt to make us feel special rather than trying to engage and win.
We call this $lake/$rock/$wave.
A $rock represents a state, and a $wave washes over the $rocks to change them slowly.
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We need to do the actual model tuning work to realize it, but Urbit's value prop is **insanely** clear in a post-GPT4 world.
You could create and deploy arbitrarily complex programs, cleanly manipulating every part of the stack, with incredible speed and accuracy.
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1/ "What is something you believe that very few in magic internet money circles agree with you on?"
1. operating systems are utterly critical
2. operating systems are much more than tooling
3. operating systems have insane product market fit
Web2 past & present illustrate...👇🏻
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5; In current Eth, however, **NOTHING LIKE THAT IS HAPPENING**.
Instead, validators are excluding some transactions when *creating their own blocks*, but building on prior valid blocks as normal.
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Meta-thread of my threads that I like.
At some point there will be a longform blog, but that day is not today.
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7; Is this a good situation, where 52% of validators censor at the building level?
NO. The right number would be 0%, and there are proposals to get there (we'll look at the end).
However, it is not a critical risk for the Eth network in any way imo.
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1; What Is Uqbar?
The technically correct answer, found at , is that Uqbar is a ZK-rollup that settles on Eth, but uses Hoon/Nock and not the EVM.
But that's really just the "how".
The "what" of Uqbar is more profound:
Uqbar is 2 claims about the world.
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1: Urbit's Killer App Is Permissionless Innovation (probably in crypto)
I maybe talk about "Urbit as an OS" too much, without saying what that *feels* like for users and devs.
It will feel like
- crazy new apps are happening all the time
- apps seem to "remix" a lot
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Unorganized bullet points about what Uqbar is doing these days:
- we're making "things that programmers think they have a right to", but that don't exist
- ideas like "personal servers", "no devops", "cloud alternative", "decentralized UIs" touch this elephant from a few sides
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@ercwl
In the old world, you use `--syncmode full`, as you said.
1. Data Archiving
In the blob world, you run a program that saves the blob data pertaining to rollups you care about.
This is less resource-intensive, because you don't need to save all old calldata and txs.
Yes, you…
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Imagine SaaS apps that were composable with all your other data, and extendable however you wanted, easily.
Oh, and have seamless access to crypto state.
Urbit now has video calling with %campfire (beta). From
@AidenSolaran
and the gang at Holium.
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1/ Urbit Has the Strongest Cultural Engine
Culture isn't memes.
Or technical artifacts.
It isn't the raw group of people you have.
It's the spirit that pulls those things together and pulls them forward and pulls in others.
Urbit has the best culture, so it will win.
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@GergelyOrosz
Yup, I wasn't just being snarky. You make the point I was trying to, which is that maximum employment and innovation in information/digital organization are mostly orthogonal things.
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For anyone who wasn't aware: Urbit event log truncation is here, and it works great!
Just do $YOUR_SHIP/.run chop
tldr; Now your ships will just take up a couple GB, instead of dozens.
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People still don't get how dead-in-the-water alt L1s are.
L2s strictly dominate them, even down to having tokens that people can be early on if they were late to Eth.
Pretty awesome that Solana has already fallen below the major Eth rollups; grim reaper knocking on Avax's door.
In terms of TVL marketshare, L2s have moved up the rankings in the last year.
November 2021 vs October 2022
We now have two L2s in position six and seven. L2s have taken marketshare away from various alt-L1s.
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8; If you've gotten this far, there are two obvious concerns this raises:
1. Is there frog-boiling risk, where people get used to progressively larger %s of stake being censored, until it's 99%+?
2. Could governments switch to forcing validators to not build on "bad" blocks?
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My contrarian Urbit view is (and has been for a long time) that this won't be enough on its own to gain meaningful adoption.
Urbit runs P2P, which means DAO's no longer need to rely on a centralized service like Discord or Telegram, nor Metamask. You own the groups you create. You own and control your DM's. You own and control all of the data on your ship. And it's all e2e encrypted.
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14; For the technical one, there are a number of plans, and they seem to be roughly 3rd on the Eth roadmap after withdrawals and data scaling (EIP-4844).
This podcast goes over those plans and mechanics well, so I will just link to it here:
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Everyone will end up on Urbit eventually.
How early they realize that will determine how much address space and status they have there.
i mean of course theyre gunning for substack
theres gonna be a certain point at which we have to fall back on print media because everything online is censored to hell and you know its a goddamn shame
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Pictures like this give me a fantasy of disappearing into a small apartment and existing only through my laptop's internet connection and my occasional interactions with people in the dingy cafes and restaurants that would be here.
Seems amazing.
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For a long time, I've judged a person/country's sincerity about climate change by how passionately they advocate for nuclear power.
If you aren't all-in on nuclear, 95%+ chance they are (maybe subconsciously) using climate as a moral cudgel/in-group marker.
Sweden🇸🇪🇪🇺 has announced plans to build as many as 10 new nuclear reactors in the next 20 years. This is a major shift in their energy policy, as they had previously aimed to limit and phase out nuclear power. What are the reasons behind this change? 🧵1/8
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@powerfultakes
Regardless of the losses, I assume you'll revisit your invalidation point now?
95% to 0% in 2.5 months is a pretty dramatic reversal.
I'm ~95% certain Kherson will remain Russian.
It's also my "invalidation".
If Ukrainians have the offensive combat power to advance across flat steppe & storm fortified urban areas, then Russia's prospects become a lot glummer.
Right now, it seems like a costly PR exercise.
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OK, so Fermi resolutions seem to be:
1 they're not there (Great Filter, Grabby Aliens)
2 they're quiet (aestivation, Dark Forest)
3 they're there (UFOs)
4 it's a manipulated simulation (all major religions)
There are mixes of these too. eg Katechon is kinda 2 + 4 + bit of 3.
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Uqbar is less a hard-driving startup and more a hunter sitting in the bushes, waiting for exactly the right moment to shoot the deer.
There are 2-3 critical technical pieces converging in the world; we're trying to hit them at the moment they intersect, and push them along.
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1/n; Urbit Stuff that Keeps Me Awake at Night
I'm obviously an Urbit bulltard, but I still worry about a lot of pieces falling into place between here and > 5M person adoption.
Interestingly, the things I worry about are not ones that people generally ask me about.
...
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1; P2P Crypto Apps Are Beastly Hard to Write
Imagine that you want to write an app to let friends play poker together.
You write the game engine, test a bit, and...
**record scratch**
Yup, that picture's me. I bet you're wondering how I ended up in this situation.....
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One reason I'm extremely bullish on the US is that sustaining that much dysfunction with that much wealth and human capital is really hard.
They even manage to keep creating wealth alongside.
Americans are top tier at everything they set their minds to, and it's not even close.
When you live outside the US you realize that 90% of social dysfunction is easily solved. Severe dysfunction only exists where it provides political benefit to some faction(s) or where there has been a complete social breakdown.
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People are hating on this, but hosting was always going to be free once unit costs got low enough.
It makes too much sense for projects with revenue, funding, or high-enough customer LTVs to subsidize it and eliminate that transaction friction for consumers.
We are currently experimenting with a free hosting offering, and we will build it out over the next few weeks. Anyone should be able to get onto the network without any hurdles. It should only take a few seconds to get a planet and start exploring.
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1; Urbit 2022: What Exponentials Look Like
I remember during the pandemic, someone described the viral spread of disease as "cluster, cluster, cluster, BOOM"
That's how Urbit has felt for the past 2 years, and the BOOM is close now.
Just got back from Miami. I really think it's game over. Urbit will soon be the social execution layer for all of crypto.
Urbit has the best developer community in all of crypto/web3. Period.
App sharing has only been possible for 1 year. Let's review some highlights.
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10: Conclusion
Imo
@urbit
sells itself short when it focuses on censorship resistance.
That's defining yourself as a negative.
The positive is cool new apps and remixes, all the time, connected to the best asset network in the world.
Get ready.
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People aren't used to "devs" and "users" not being separate categories.
I don't know what to call self-improving organisms made out of Code, Content, and Capital, but that's definitely what we're talking about here.
you want a new feature, do you:
[ ] shout and beg the guy who bought a company
[ ] implement it in a client
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@NorthRockLP
It's just a frontend lock afaict.
You could grab an old frontend off Github, redeploy, and be back in business as if nothing happened.
Or could interact with the contract directly via Etherscan or a local node.
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3; Creating a block means deciding what you will put into it.
Building on blocks means deciding whether a block *someone else* made is OK for you to build on.
%-based attacks in PoW and PoS are all about the latter: not building on prior blocks, even when they are valid.
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1. build Urbit apps
2. help others build them
3. realize I and others always end up wanting integrated crypto in Urbit
4. realize Nock is provable in ZK
5. realize incredibly tight devX can be built by keeping everything in Urbit
6. build and iterate
@basileSportif
The combo of urbit and ethereum is intriguing btw…how did you land on this as a dev, out of curiosity?
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1; Don't Be an Old
The world is full of extraordinarily smart people who get stale and boring as they age.
Imo the most common reason is that they fall in love with one or a couple mental frameworks and try to apply them to everything.
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People who unironically worry about the "crypto industry" have Asset Imposter Syndrome.
They don't **actually** think crypto is unstoppable and useful, and are hoping that everyone ignores that and bands together to make it go up for no reason.
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We have a **lot** of work left to do in Urbit, but there is literally nothing else that is as close to delivering "application legos."
That's what I want to exist in the world.
That's why I build on Urbit.
13/ The composability of data on Urbit is unmatched to any technology I’ve seen before.
This isn’t defi legos, this is full-blown application legos.
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TFR and immigration are some of the biggest infohazards ever created for a certain type of autistic mind.
These people would unironically be far, far better off and do more good for the world if they put that energy into, idk, baseball sabermetrics, like a normal 1990s autist.
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Uqbar coming out
🚀NEW EPISODE🚀
This week
@crainbf
&
@MeherRoy
chat with
@basileSportif
about 'on-ramping' crypto into
@urbit
via
@uqbarnetwork
.
Hear about:
➡️use cases for Urbit & Uqbar
➡️Hoon's DevEx
➡️interoperability
➡️Uqbar's ZK rollup approach
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1; Nerfed Crypto Is Boring
In my last part, I talked about why "does crypto have any value?" matters for whether it can be banned.
Now, I want to talk about the nature of its value, and why USG capturing crypto, rather than banning, would completely destroy that value.
1; Marijuana Had Value; Poker Didn't
Discussing whether USG can shut down crypto is hard. It has both succeeded and failed to shut things down many times.
So pointing to "hey, it shut *this* down!" or "no, it couldn't shut *that* down!" is unhelpful.
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Think people don't understand how inorganic the SOL buy pressure was, which is a big reason it's sliding so hard, relatively.
Actual "fair" marketcap should be (will be?) around Near or EOS imo.
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9/ For those who have been around Urbit for a few years, it's clear something is different now.
It's happening.
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I've said I don't subtweet, but VCs endlessly poasting the outputs of their ChatGPT sessions reminds me strongly of when my father got addicted to Minesweeper in his 50s.
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god he is such a cringe normie
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4; A 51% attack in PoW is when you use your majority to consistently not build on others' valid blocks, presumably in order to censor the contents of those blocks.
There are similar attacks possible in PoS when an attacker has a high % of stake.
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I'm not a fan of privacy-based value propositions, because they're defensive and negative, not attacking.
I prefer extensibility and permissionlessness, because they're accelerationist and positive.
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Crypto OGs are amazingly skilled at 2 things:
- whining about how "the industry" has lost its way from the vision that pulled them in
- not contributing anything technically, ever, to making that vision happen
talking with one of my oldest crypto friends
the vibes are down astronomically
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4; Chads have a thesis for what crypto can be, and this event strengthens it.
Scaleable, programmatic settlement with Eth security properties looks a whole lot better every trading CEX is suspect.
Eliminating fat losers who suck the oxygen out of the room also good
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This has been said by others, but if AGI really is just data+compute (and not even at that crazy of a scale), the Great Filter is completely done as an idea, and we have to move on to wackier shit to resolve Fermi.
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19; And here is
@nic__carter
trying to FUD about how slashing would work, but getting lots of important details wrong because he can't be fucked to actually read the stuff he's criticizing:
A quick look at
@nic__carter
's article on Eth slashing.
tldr; the entire article is based on a major factual error. Hopefully Nic will correct this and re-write it, since it substantially alters the argument.
What's the factual error?
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1; The Hero We Needed: The Many Ways in which Gary Is Saving Eth
Post-Kraken, I see a lot of simplistic takes about how the SEC is de-risking Ethereum, usually like:
"Now lots more people will use decentralized staking, and so Eth will be more decentralized."
True, but.....
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Defi is a nice-to-have that should be layered on top of productive virtual activity.
Instead, it somehow became the entire thing, and now everyone is freaking out, because they realized there isn't much productive virtual activity happening on crypto rails.
It's very...sterile.
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@iamDCinvestor
saw same w Putin. Seems clear now that he got bad/what-I-want-to-hear intel about the efficacy of FSB networks in Ukraine, and thought the invasion would be a pushover due to influence ops
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Everyone wants a World Computer, and most arguments in crypto are just about how we get there and whether we can get there.
Everything else is just another way of touching the elephant: TPS, modularity, monolithic composable, liquidity fragmentation, depin.......it's all just…
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Yes. Crypto is only interesting because it's permissionless.
I am trying to make crypto more productive, in exactly the manner polynya wants.
However, I only am interested in doing that because it's permissionless.
If there weren't stupid, offensive memecoins happening in…
Polynya quit Crypto because he saw people making racist memecoins
What exactly did he think permissionlessness meant?
Maybe he'd prefer a centralized bureau of meme assets where a committee can approve or deny applications to launch a memecoin based on how appropriate it is?…
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"It's not SF" is the big tell. People really really want a tech place that's not SF, and they're forcing meh solutions because it hasn't happened yet.
I get the desire to have a tech place that's not SF. I really do.
I think it's doable, and I don't think it's Austin or Miami…
I just got back from Prospera.
A startup city on the island of Roatán.
It’s crypto, it’s bio, it’s robo.
And it’s not San Francisco.
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Honestly one of the worst things about the current crypto environment is that you can't do fair public presales like Eth's anymore.
People have to do KYC'd private rounds purely for legal compliance reasons, which sucks.
@Pat_McDermott17
@sourcewire
@VitalikButerin
@federalreserve
Ethereum was also a fair launch. The terms were 100% transparent. 🤷
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Say what you want about Bitcoin maxis (lord knows I do), but they had the balls to look at gold's marketcap and think it was the bear case.
Eth people are trying to build a global settlement layer that is, yes, money.
Don't be afraid of 14 digits; that's what we're here for.
@EricHaydenCEO
@cryptofordocs
Right. ETH at 60k is about 2 to 3 Apple Computers. Sounds reasonable to me for a global settlement layer that's working out, extremely defensible from network effects, and hypergrowing. Note that 60k is my high watermark for next bull. 20k seems like easy mode with the flippening
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13; Beyond that, there is strong social and technical pressure that can be applied to lower the censoring builder %.
Social: pressure Flashbots to disable their default relayer. Short-term fix, but useful.
Technical: make Eth more censorship resistant at the base layer.
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1: Operating Systems: from Singleplayer to Multiplayer
or "how I learned to stop talking about web1/2/3 and love the OS"
A cool way to walk through computing history is to treat it as two distinct phases: singleplayer and multiplayer OSs.
Each of those had many subphases.
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