Rumors are just for fun. What ultimately matters is facts-and-data-driven research based a solid analytical framework. If you are a sophisticated investor and interested in my investment-oriented China research, please direct message me and we will go from there. Thanks!

A very interesting angle: China's relentless manufacturing expansion and export dominance may be a different kind of "carry trade." The BOJ's ultra-loose monetary policy has inflated global asset prices through financial channels, whereas the PBoC’s easing has worked through

Below are, in my view, the two most important charts for understanding the current state of the Chinese economy. Ultimately, one of the key reasons behind China’s economic stabilization and the stock market rally earlier this year was the notable pickup in total social financing

It is noteworthy that this conclusion appears in the newly released US National Security Strategy: "We must encourage Europe, Japan, Korea, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and other prominent nations in adopting trade policies that help rebalance China’s economy toward household

I think the most important line in this widely circulated FT article is this: “That would be good for the Chinese people, too, whose living standards are sacrificed to make the country more competitive.” The issue, however, is that Beijing’s priorities at this stage—given the

Over the past few years, China has been in deflation, while the US has been in inflation. Yet despite this stark divergence, the CNH has still depreciated more than 10% against the US dollar. This combination — falling relative prices in China and a weaker currency — has made

Exactly. Beijing’s austere policy is, in effect, doing the world — particularly the United States — a favor by keeping commodity prices, and therefore inflation, in check. I’ve long argued that the true economic nuclear weapon Beijing could deploy to inflict pain on US households

We just released a note sharing our major takeaways from the "12 out of 10" Xi-Trump Summit and their implications for the market. We would like to share the concluding paragraph here: "While the successful Xi–Trump meeting has secured a more sustainable near-term détente

Again, it would be a mistake to underestimate China’s capacity to close the AI gap with the US, especially as the global AI race moves from the training phase to large-scale inference and deployment.

China’s fixed asset investment growth has slipped into negative territory for the first time in history—excluding the extraordinary pandemic collapse in early 2020. If there’s one lesson Beijing could draw from the recent US experience, it’s that AI is now a MACRO FORCE. AI

Definitely worth listening to!

I’ve just released a brief note explaining why investors should avoid overreacting to Beijing’s retaliation against Hanwha and its US subsidiaries. If you’d like to receive our insights, feel free to reach out at shanghaimacro@gmail.com.

While I acknowledge that Beijing’s recent export control on rare earths is an asymmetrical response to the BIS’s 50% rule—perhaps even a case of over-defensiveness—China’s retaliatory measures against US affiliates of the Korean shipbuilder Hanwha and its imposition of port fees

An interesting chart shows that, unlike during the first Trump trade war, Chinese exports have demonstrated remarkable resilience this time—despite a far more aggressive US tariff regime. This unusual strength, in my view, can be attributed to two key factors. 1. A very

More MOC comments on US tariffs threat: Resorting to threats of high tariffs is not the right way to engage with China. On the issue of a tariff war, China’s position has been consistent — we do not want a trade war, but we are not afraid of one either. China urges the U.S. to

I sense Beijing’s restraint from this press conference Q&A. Spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce Answers Questions on China’s Recent Economic and Trade Policy Measures Question: We’ve noticed that the Ministry of Commerce recently issued an announcement to strengthen

I suspect that Trump’s aggressive and highly public response may have caught Chinese policymakers off guard. But ultimately investors need to understand that the rare-earth policy was intended as a calibrated leverage move, not a trigger for immediate and dramatic confrontation.

A key reason for the misstep is that Beijing views its rare earth export controls as a response to the Affiliates Rule or the 50% rule announced by the US Commerce Department on September 29, 2025, while the Trump administration sees them as a unilateral escalation that violates

I am open to being proven wrong, but I expect Beijing to exercise restraint and leverage high-level communication channels with Washington to resolve the current deadlock. If China refrains from retaliating with a symmetrical 100 percent tariff by Monday, investors should

During the Golden Week holiday, average daily spending per tourist fell 13% year-on-year to 113.9 yuan, highlighting persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the need for stronger policy support.

It is becoming increasingly evident that China now dominates the world of hardware, while the United States leads in software. This divide appears to be a natural extension of the previous global order: the US driving frontier innovation, and China excelling at scaling and