Stephane Deo
@StephaneDeo
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Senior PM. Central bank nerd. Sport fanatic. Food lover. Enthusiastic but pathetic chess player. Views are my own.
Paris, France
Joined April 2014
12h 24m 12s. Et une belle médaille de viking. 😜
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Bon, la macchina 😍😍😍 est prête. Y’a plus qu’à. Fini les deux semi-IRONMAN du printemps et autres jeux d’enfants. On passe au rayon adulte #IronMan #IMCopenhaguen . @ABaradez @AlainPitous
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The French/Italian 10Y spread saga continues: it briefly touched 10 bp intraday today. It was 113 at the beginning of last year. Forzzzza ragazzzzzziii. Un piccolo sforzo in più. Lo spread zero è vicino.
French-Italian 10y spread continues to tighten—below 20 bp this morning. C’mon guys, a little more effort: zero spread is within reach.
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US federal budget balance: July data confirm once again that DOGE was a roaring success. The brown line — federal outlays, aka govt expenses — is plummeting. Oh wait, actually… it’s not.
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You’ve been told: Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 73k in July. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics also gives a 90% confidence interval: it ranges from -62.8k to +208.8k. That's a 271k range — almost 4 times the headline number!
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September FOMC meeting: Mr Markets keeps hesitating between a rate cut and no change. Next key data point to watch: CPI on August 12th.
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RT @IanRHarnett: This is what happened to profits in the 1920s and 30s when big tariff rises hit home. Profit shocks the size of which we h….
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Usual monthly chart, usual message: more rate cuts than hikes in July. That’s 20 months in a row now.
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Once again: thanks very much @C_Barraud for the citation!.
⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w31 (2025) ⚠ . *HT @PeterBerezinBCA, @GlobalMktObserv, @zerohedge, @CavaggioniMario, @fwred, @StephaneDeo. #SPX #Employment #Tariffs #Eurozone #Inflation #Wages.
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Average government job creations per month:. - Under Biden = +39,1k. - Under Trump = -3,8k. Quite a change.
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Greek unemployment rate dropped to 7.9% in May. Lowest in 17 years. This follows 9.6% in January and …. 28.3% back in July 2013. Impressive!
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The ECB just released its wage tracker, noting that “wage pressures continue to ease”: Q1-25 wages rose just +1.7% y/y, down from a 5.2% peak in Q4-20. The last pocket of inflation resilience in Europe comes from some service sectors, softer wages suggests a fast decline ahead.
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RT @RihardJarc: An interesting comment from a Former $META employee. ENERGY is the biggest bottleneck right now. Even if $META wants to sp….
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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence survey shows a further deterioration of the job market as perceived by households.
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Important legal point flagged by @fwred. Also: in 2024, the US provided 16.1% of EU oil and 45.3% of LNG imports—worth €61bn (42bn oil + 19bn LNG) out of €375bn in total energy imports. Jumping to €750bn over 3 years is technically impossible—we lack the infrastructure.
🇺🇸🇪🇺 The $750bn US energy purchases are not legally binding. The $600bn EU investment pledge is an "intention". The EU did not commit to US defence purchases. The EU did not commit to address non-tariff barriers in agriculture or digital taxes. Apart from that, a historic deal.
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RT @C_Barraud: ⚠ Top 10 Macro/Financial Charts of the Week – w30 (2025) ⚠ . *HT @neilksethi, @Schuldensuehner, @sentimentrader, @RenMacLL….
christophe-barraud.com
Find here the top 10 charts of the week, published on Twitter, that attracted attention among the macroeconomic and/or financial community.
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German IFO: the "Prices vs previous month” component is back into negative territory in June. The H1 timid bounce back is already over.
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Who’s buying Italian debt? It has actually changed a lot since 2020:. From 2020 to mid-2022, it was essentially the ECB (post-Covid QE). From mid-2022 to 2024, domestic investors took over — mainly non-financials, i.e. Italian households. This year, it’s all foreigners.
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China's Q2 GDP, published a week ago, slightly surprised to the upside at +1.1% q/q. However, the details show that private consumption remains sluggish: its contribution to GDP growth was only 52% — the fifth consecutive quarter below the pre-Covid norm.
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