Mario Cavaggioni
@CavaggioniMario
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PM in HY market. Football and wine fanatic. RT not endorsement
Joined April 2014
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Pinned Tweet
ECB President Lagarde (Davos 17/01/24):
“There are 3 things that I’m watching carefully: wage bargainings, profit margins, energy prices and – hopefully not – the coming back of supply bottlenecks. Those are four key components”.
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Is market pricing an Armageddon?
(GFC high was 200, Euro crisis 100)
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US Treasury to allow Russia's $117 million bond payment to go through using dollars frozen by sanctions (BBG)
#RussianUkrainianWar
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*MCDONALD'S SAYS US LABOR INFLATION IS ABOUT 10% NOW
Difficult see a change in Fed behavior.... labor mkt still tight
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@OGiannino
Ma tutti quelli che accusano
@OGiannino
di essere di parte perché (sic) non rispetta le sentenze, hanno capito che la sentenza è “non colpevole perché i russi non hanno risposto alle domande dell’accusa , ma la trattativa c’è stata”?
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Germany retail sales m/m -5.4% (est -0.5%, last +0.9% from -0.1%):
- Food spending -7.7%
- Non Food retail sales -4.4%
-> Demand for clothing in specialist retailer - 4.3%
-> Demand for clothing in department stores -7.7%
-> Online sales +5.4%
EU moving to recession
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IFO 88.6 (est 90.1, last 92.2)
IFO expectations 80.3 (est 83, last 85.5)
Germany outlook is really bad
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One of the most interesting point in US CPI today is energy: April average gas price at pump was notably lower on m/m ($4.12 vs $4.22) but now that drop has reversed to $4.41, as consistently reported by
@AlessioUrban
That means that May could be a surprise on upside!
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EUR HY and IG mkts continue to perform despite:
- outflows
- rates selloff
- worsening economic outlook (higher cpi and lower activity)
To me seems clear that rebound is led by short covering only…
#highyield
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UBS has slashed its Q1 global GDP forecast to just +0.7% from +3.2% qoq annaualised. The downward adj is entirely a consequence of heavy revisions to Chinese and developing Asia estimates as a consequence of the coronavirus. Chinese Q1 GDP is now expected to be -1.5% (prev+6.5%)
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Korea December exports y/y +5.1% (est +3.7%, last +7.7%)
The recovery in global trade is underway, despite Red Sea problems concerning future of supply chain. Like Swedish Manuf PMI, this is in line with Eurozone manufacturing PMI acceleration....
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Germany:
- Services PMI 50.9 (est 51.3)
- Composite 50.7 (last 51.1)
Services not a great report:
- Employment down to 50.6 (last 52.8)
- Exports 41.3 (last 43.6)
- Price paid 72.1 (last 69.8)
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EXCLUSIVE-NORD STREAM 1 SEEN RESTARTING GAS FLOWS AFTER ANNUAL MAINTENANCE ON TIME, ON THURSDAY, BUT AT REDUCED LEVEL - TWO SOURCES
#nordstream
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US ISM Services 56.9 (est 55.3, last 56.7).
This is a good report:
- Price paid⬇️
- New Orders⬆️
- Supplier deliveries⬇️
- Employment⬆️
- New export orders⬆️
Large part of August soft data reported at least a stabilization of activity in US at good levels, Fed can hike 75bps
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JOLTS were strong but QUITS too...
We need to monitor closely, something could be underway...
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@ferrazza
La cosa che fa ridere è che sarebbe bastata una veloce ricerca su per capire che i numeri non tornavano minimamente (€400/mese):
- costo medio a/r Na-Mi negli orari di lavoro €160
- costo per 20gg: €3.200
- sconto 50% (se si ha gran fortuna): €1.600
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Really interesting chart by
@BittelJulien
I was surprised by ISM manufacturing level in November but that remember me what happened in late 2017/early 2018, when subcomponents already signaled moderation while (ça va sans dire) Fed began an hawkish hike cycle...
Global economic momentum slowed further this November…
% of OECD countries with rising lead indicators MoM fell to 46%.
That’s a big drop from 92% in Q1.
This will start to weigh on the US manufacturing sector very soon.
ISM… tick-tock.
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Korea November exports m/m +7.8% (est +5.0%, last +5.1%)
So October wasn't only a calendar effect: recovery phase in global trade begins. Still picture is challenging (as Maersk reported in its earning season) but end of destocking signs recovery in trading.
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France July PMIs:
- Manufacturing 44.5 (est 46.0, last 46.0)
- Services 47.4 (est 48.5, last 48.0)
- Composite 46.6 (est 47.7, last 47.2)
Really weak report in manufacturing:
- New Orders 41.6 (last 42.5)
- Employment 46.4 (48.7)
- Export 39.4 (42.8)
- Px Paid 42.9 (45.7)
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Bridgewater bets against US and European corporate bonds on slowdown fears
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@FusacchiA
I casi sono due:
A) siete degli idioti
B) siete degli incompetenti che non leggono manco quello che votano
In entrambi i casi è imbarazzante che siate lì!
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DB now sees material downside risks to its 4.1% Chinese Q2 GDP and 4.4% FY GDP growth due to pandemic restrictions now affect large part of economic activities.
Supply disruption now higher than in 2020, involving not only Jilin and Shanghai areas but affecting more provinces.
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Market feels economic situation is deteriorating probably faster than expected (you know my view is H2 will be a marked slowdown in activity):
Itraxx Main +2bps
Itraxx Xover +12bps
Buyers/Sellers moved to 1:2
RXM2 +16c
#highyield
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China Caixin PMIs in a free fall. ZCP doing one of the worst damage ever:
- Manufacturing 46 (est 47, last 48.1)
- Services 36.2 (est 40, last 42)
- Composite 37.2 (est -, last 43.9)
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Bankers finally stopping tell me what an outstanding opportunity are equity CLOs
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Eurozone May Sentix -13.1 (est -7.5, last -8.7)
Sentix starting to diverge from Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index... something to monitor....
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Eurozone Jan PMIs:
- Manufacturing 48.8 (est 48.5, last 47.8)
- Services 50.7 (est 50.1, last 49.8)
- Composite 50.2 (est 49.8, last 49.3)
Same story here with notable rebound in new orders, export and employment (close to all time high), while price pressure declined further.
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NAHB Index 69 (est 75, last 77).... housing mkt has a bit of fatigue....
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@federico_bosco
Il bello è che poi si dichiarano difensori e seguaci della libertà ma ammirano le peggiori dittature....
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On this article:
1- Russia can't switch deliveries quickly without an already functioning pipeline
2- Cut its main source of revenues seems more a desperate step than a strategy
Russia switches off Europe’s main gas pipeline until sanctions are lifted
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Digging into Italian Manufacturing PMI, report is strong:
- Employment 53.2 (last 51.7)
- New orders 51.1 (last 48.3)
- Exports 48.9 (last 49.2)
- Price paid 49.3 (last 53)
- O/I ratio back above 1
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According to some lenders, CS bonds are:
- OpCo +5/+10pts
- HoldCo +15/+20pts
- AT1 +20/+40pts
#CreditSuisse
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Food price inflation is proving stubbornly persistent
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ECB retreat to put €300bn burden on eurozone debt market
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I said severe times is a supply AND demand shock, we are observing a U-turn recovery (my base scenario). But remember: profits in SOEs are now close to zero, can’t revive economy strongly as in 2008... risks are clearly more for a L-shape scenario than a V-shape...
Note that services have just done something rather unprecedented here: IT FELL below 50 by a long shot to 29.6. During GFC, it was still above 50 (expanding) offsetting declining manufacturing.
This time, both manufacturing & services contracting & SERVICES WORSE!
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FINMA decision to writedown to 0 CS AT1s and give seniority to equity over AT1s is something that will bring terrible consequences for bank debt.
For example capital ratios now don’t matter at all!
#CreditSuisse
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The FINMA decision to wipe out CS AT1s shift the calculation of risk embedded in AT1s from a capital ratio to a pure economic risk.
And calculate how big is an eco risk is really hard for investors, depending on multiple factors.
The asset class is dead, banks under heavy risk
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No crunchy Xmas....
KKR proposes 75% write-off to Telepizza's bondholders, or will hand them the keys for €1; shareholder meeting on December 16.
Bonds open -15pts, FOOBON 6.25 26 30/40
#highyield
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South Korea June export 20 days y/y -3.4% (prior +24.1%): shifting from normalization to contraction of global trade?
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@LucaBizzarri
@OGiannino
Detto da
@DinoGiarrusso
uno che:
- ha fatto i manifesti chiamandosi “iena” altrimenti nessuno lo votava
- docente a contratto: 0 pubblicazioni
- “mi candido senza paracadute”, trombato, riesce a farsi comunque assumere dalla Lombardi
- controllo concorsi univ: 0 segnalazioni
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Happy to be part of
@millarlr
panel at today’s CreditSights European HY Conference in Milan
#highyield
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Italian HY nightmare:
- CMCRAV: default
- ASTALDI: default
- OFFMAC: 45-50c on Euro
- MOBY: 35-37c on Euro
- MANTEN: 83-85pts (3y maturity)
#highyield
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€ IG mkt today is totally broken in bid side....
Basically you are unable to find bids (if you don't allow a 10-15pts haircut vs screens)....
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This is in line with a further deterioration in the quality of US labor market...
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China’s $1.3tn global spending spree will collapse, says top US official
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@jacopo_iacoboni
Ma non era l’Avvocato senza partito? Non era quello che da anni ripeteva che non era parte del M5S?
Ma come caxxo fa la gente a osannare sto pirla?
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Activity in China remain depressed, PBOC needs to increase stimulus quickly....
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@federico_bosco
Peraltro un'affermazione anche falsa, cioè che l'Ucraina stia perdendo la guerra: la guerra è sostanzialmente in una fase di empasse, ma se uno guarda a quali erano i piani russi, di certo non si può dire che Mosca abbia vinto....
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@jacopo_iacoboni
La cosa che fa più impressione non è tanto la doppiezza di Conte, quanto quanta gente realmente creda che il suo fosse un buon governo.
Per il resto, solo un partito come il PD può pensare di farsi dettare la linea da uno come Bettini, in grado di perdere qualsiasi elezione...
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Germany November Retail Sales m/m -2.5% (est -0.5%, last +1.3% from +1.1%)
Really bad numbers from German economy for November, confirming so far that the country is plunging in a recession
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@Andrea27920710
@federicofubini
Peccato però che mentre tutti andavano a Davos ad incontrare il mgmt di Intel, il Giorgetti (insieme a Salvini) non aveva tempo perché doveva andare a visitare un salumificio in Valtellina
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@lucianocapone
Un giorno sarebbe bello che qualcuno indagasse sul loro filo-putinismo modello Pravda 1935....
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Mixed numbers:
China February IP YTD y/y +7.0% (est +5.2%)
China February Retail Sales YTD y/y +5.5% (est +5.6%)
China February Property Investment YTD y/y -9% (est -8%)
China February Jobless Rate 5.3% (est 5.1%)
China February Residential Property Sales YTD y/y -32.7%
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Debit Suisse is an unprofitable bank, badly managed that need a big u-turn in strategy/management.
But we are not in 2008, capitalization and capital under stress test is a total different story…
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Japan is the best country in the world. In Tokyo:
- pint of beer 3.5€
- gin tonic 5.8/6.5€
- cocktail 5/6.5€
- ultra premium Japanese whisky 28/30€
I think I’ll send application to MUFG, Nomura etc….
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Amazing!
CARNIVAL - PRICE TALK & TIMING
Size: $4bn (all USD, EUR tranche dropped)
Talk: 12% area coupon @ 99
Timing: Books close at 11:00am NYT Pricing this afternoon
Secured Ratings: Baa2 / BBB-
#highyield
?
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@GiovanniToti
Incredibile! E dire che tu
@GiovanniToti
sei sempre stato così attento a tenere alta la guardia e rispettare le regole soprattutto st’estate, dando sempre messaggi corretti!
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@VeroDeRomanis
@diMartedi
È lo specchio del paese: nessuna idea di comunità, di sistema. Ognuno guarda al proprio orticello e finché non c’è un danno diretto va bene tutto.
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@FerdiGiugliano
@sole24ore
Di Maio ha già dato la colpa alla BCE e ai suoi sistemi di controllo da potenziare....impagabile!
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Strong $ is a big problem for global economy, even for US
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From CS, HY and IG flows. Interesting to note phase one (sell everything) ended, and we are entering in phase two (stabilization, waiting for game changer):
#highyield
#credit
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@EnricoLetta
Tassazione su redditi >$500.000 in US passerebbe dal 37% al 39%
Tassazione in Italia €28.000/€55.000 è al 38%
Forse è questo che le voleva far notare
#Draghi
quando parlava di riforma dell’intero sistema fiscale italiano, invece che di proposte spot inutili?
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AT1s recovering strongly today with bonds on average +2/+3.5pts
According to many brokers flows are only one-way.
Italian banks and DB overperforming.
#highyield
#BankingCrisis
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Global manufacturing PMI moving to recession?
- China 50.2pts
- Korea 48.4pts
- Taiwan 48.4pts
- Indonesia 51.6pts
- UK 49.4pts
- Russia 49.8pts
- Italy 49.7pts
- France 50.6pts
- Germany 44.3pts
- EZ 47.7pts
- US 50.6pts (first)
- Mexico 50.1pts (Apr)
- India 52.7pts
- Aus 51pts
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Italian automotive unions that represent workers at Stellantis, Ferrari, Iveco and CNH Industrial will ask for a wage increase of at least 6.5% for 2023,
@Reuters
reports.
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Credit bloodbath:
Main: 90.4 (+8bps)
Xover: 459 (+33bps)
Snr: 109 (+14bps)
Sub: 199 (+31bps)
Corps
££ +3/+7bps
€€ +5/+12bps
Perps -0.125-0.5pt
Fins
US banks +20/25bps
Core +15/20bps (CS +80bps)
Peripherals +20/25bps
T2 +20/+35bps
€AT1 -1.5/-2.5pt
$AT1 -2pts
#highyield
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Rates mkt rally continue for the fourth day in a row: Treasury 10Y 4%, Bund 2.12%.
Lot of people think again we're in pivot momentum, largely following WSJ's last Friday article. However I'm skeptic, although I've reduced some shorts to better entry point, for many reasons:
1/n
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Happy new year guys
@KillinGswitCH98
@Credit_Junk
@AlessioUrban
@mrcage80
@spantegu
@HeardFloor
@vctrjmnz
@9finHQ
@derimster
@spaghettilisbon
@AntoineBouvet2
@MichaelAArouet
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Moody's raises junk default forecast as funding stress mounts
The agency predicts the default rate will climb to 4.9% by November of next year under its baseline scenario, from a forecast of 2.9% for the end of 2022. Last month’s year-ahead projection was 4.5%.
#highyield
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China Sept Exports y/y -6.2% (est -8.0%, last -8.8%)
China Sept Imports y/y -6.2% (est -6.3%, last -7.3%)
Small uptick for trade balance but activity in China remained depressed in Q3.
New stimulus could boost commodities' consumption but so far China has been a drag for commo.
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@ninazilli
@Corriere
Critica quantomeno sciocca:
1. Non è una trattoria alla buona la sua ma un ristorante di fascia medio-alta
2. Stipendi a Milano sono circa 2x Roma e c'è una fetta di popolazione che guadagna molto di + della media nazionale
3. Nessuno è obbligato ad andare a mangiare da lui
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Wow.... Italy April Manufacturing PMI 46.8 (est 49.5, last 51.1)
New orders down 45.3 (last 50.8)
Employment 52.4 (last 53.3)
Export 47.2 (last 50.7)
Supplier Deliveries 44.0 (last 46.1)
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DB sees again a US mild recession in Q1/Q2 24 with first Fed cut in June 24.
BofA sees US recession at end of Q1 24, even here first Fed cut in June
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@matteosalvinimi
Squisita l'idea di farsi fotografare con l'icona religiosa alle spalle a ricordare le tradizioni del tuo padrone Vladimir....
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Carney Says We're in A Low-Growth, Low-Inflation World!
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“Golden Goose have already reached iconic status thanks its strong social media presence”...
Instagram followers:
- Gucci 44m
- Balenciaga 11.6m
- Golden Goose 779k
#highyield
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