Nigel Gould-Davies
@Nigelgd1
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Senior Fellow for Russia & Eurasia, IISS. Contributing editor, Survival. Fmr UK Ambassador to Belarus. Film-maker. Stalking survivor. Views mine.
London
Joined January 2014
A thread on the history of political risk. We’ve all heard of it. But who coined the term, and why? It might surprise you /1
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If you’re following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this is an EXCELLENT read. Nice work, @Nigelgd1. ‘Russia’s actions are the result of 4 wider developments that are reshaping its calculus. The first 3 are policy choices of America, Europe and China. The fourth is Russia’s own
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1/ Russia's volunteer soldiers (known as kontraktniki) have evolved significantly since the start of the Ukraine war, with the quality of the soldiers steadily decreasing. A Russian commentary describes how the profile of the Russian contract soldier has changed over time. ⬇️
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This is PURE GOLD! The video is a bit long but a must-watch if you want to know what’s really happening among the so-called Russian “elites.” “The elites are in a state close to hysteria,” according to Evgeny Minchenko, president of “Minchenko Consulting.” He spoke at the
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I strongly commend @Nigelgd1 concise summation of Moscow's strategic impasse. And likely outcome - more European provocations. @Stanovaya I think correctly interprets Kremlin's resignation/VVP at Valdai: Trump no longer represents an imminent solution to its maximalist war aims.
There is a big overarching debate over the sources of Russian conduct, specifically greater pressure on Europe. Several hypotheses. - Pressure is up but it's just noise rather than deliberate campaign - Russia responding to greater European involvement in Ukraine (@schroeder_prs
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Fully agree @RALee85. Thank you for amplifying my argument with fine-grained military expertise.
I agree. I think Russia is approaching an inflection point in the coming months about whether to continue the war. In order to capture all of the Donetsk region (which is of questionable actual strategic value for Russia), Moscow may need to conduct another mobilization or
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Top @Nigelgd1 analysis. Putin reckoned the West’s support for Ukraine would wane over time. But while Biden’s failed and foolish “escalation management” extended the war unnecessarily, Europe is still steadfast, which now presents Putin with problems. https://t.co/z9nPlZfiid
iiss.org
Recent policy choices by America, Europe and China, and domestic economic strains, are reshaping Russia’s calculus. Since time may no longer be on its side, it is challenging Western resolve in more...
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Putin has quoted Vysotsky on successive days. What if anything does this mean?
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Given the new teams and changes to the UFL. How are you feeling about the 2026 season?
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In the future, everyone will be French Prime Minister for 15 minutes.
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For more on the geoeconomics of Russia’s harvest, see https://t.co/9ANTIXKNpy by @IISS_org Associate Fellow @peterfrankopan
iiss.org
Russia’s harvest for 2025 is shaping up to be the worst in over 17 years. This is likely to expose weaknesses in Russia’s wartime economy and its status as a global power.
‼️ Russian Agricultural Update: “Buckwheat prices will rise again: the gross buckwheat harvest is expected to be the lowest since the beginning of this century.” The article suggests the harvest could drop by 32%. But what if it’s more? https://t.co/2p0xe9SoRQ
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Very interesting thread
Yesterday I had the rare opportunity to speak with infantry from Ukraine's 14th Brigade. They had just returned from a 90-day posting in Novoekonomichne - one of the hottest parts of the entire front. Their commander, 'Bobruk,' had some very interesting insights. Thread:
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My latest piece for @IISS_org “Human Textures: the personal as geopolitical” Reflections on diplomacy; my most personal piece yet. If you like my writing, do have a look (free to read) https://t.co/Cg16bCU2Js First and last page 👇
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NovelAI Diffusion V4.5 just released with sharper anime image generations and smarter prompts. Start generating for free today.
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Who would have predicted that one of the biggest exporters of oil would have to import oil products?
Today, Kommersant published Russia's planned steps to eliminate the fuel shortage. 1. Increasing imports from Belarus 2. Permitting the use of the octane-boosting additive monomethylaniline 3. Imports from China, South Korea, and Singapore 1/
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The ancient and futile tradition of petitioning the tsar.
In Moscow, nearly a thousand Russians came to Putin’s reception office to file complaints. They complained about violations of constitutional rights, fines for searching extremist content, the development of a park, the demolition of architectural monuments, and more.
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This was an excellent Policy Dialogue: open, collegial, challenging, constructive. None of the stiff choreography that can hinder such events. A really good start to the UK-Azerbaijani Strategic Partnership. Warm thanks to @FergusAuldFCDO @fismailzade @ADAUniversity
First 🇦🇿🇬🇧 Policy Dialogue – a valuable new forum to exchange diverse perspectives and fresh ideas as we co-create our Strategic Partnership between government, business, civil society and academia.
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Belarus recently released less than 4% of its political prisoners, and U.S. lifted some sanctions in return. Most remain in prison. Ales should be freed immediately.
Today is the birthday of my colleague, Belarusian human rights defender Ales Beliatsky. He has been meeting him in prison for several years now. Lukashenko is taking revenge on him for his human rights work, keeping Ales incommunicado. But the walls will fall, freedom will come.
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#Belarus @NobelPrize laureate and Belarusian human rights defender Ales Bialiatski turns 63 in prison today. This is the fifth birthday he has spent behind bars since his 2021 arrest. Contact with him is extremely limited. We know that he underwent a surgery in prison.
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This was a dismal moment, now proved wrong. (Her prior career was actually academic).
Anyone remember Assistant Defense Secretary Wallander under Biden falsely claiming in April 2024 that Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure are war crimes? Wallander has zero military experience and her prior career involved lobbying for US investment in Russia.
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