Reposting this, which seems increasingly relevant. I tried to be pretty even-handed back in January, while highlighting the risks. But, it is clear that things are breaking bad. https://t.co/YxsVEVtpz3

Fire Fickell and McIntosh immediately! Why do I even have to post this?

A question: do people really think that if Russia takes all four regions it claimed in 2022, the war will stop? Every winter, the same discussion reappears: that Russia is stuck, that winter will stall any major offensive, and that another mobilisation might be needed—so maybe

Since early 2023, the Russian military has constructed a learning ecosystem to not only adapt to war but institutionalize its combat experience. It remains a flawed organization but it is preparing for the future. My latest ⁦⁦⁦@ForeignAffairs⁩

Lenin’s dictum below, often ascribed to Putin to explain his approach, but very rarely born out by the facts. Putin halted outside Tbilisi in 2008, after Ilovaisk in 2014, and Debaltseve in 2015…and it wasn’t because he “found steel”

3/ Russian meddling remains a reality in Moldova. But it has also become a convenient justification for open European backing of the incumbent — and for authorities’ own interventions in the electoral process.

Required reading. https://t.co/uYhBsCTu4D

I mean, this is a joke, right? Is it April 1st? How can people be this naive?

'It is hard to see a route to Ukrainian victory without a much wider, but politically very difficult, level of conscription. Recruits would need to be dragged from civilian industries. Politicians’ sons, now often protected, would have to go"

Talk about misleading tweets. This was a routine intercept of Russian bombers in international airspace. NORAD says: "This Russian activity in the Alaskan ADIZ occurs regularly and is not seen as a threat". Beware the OSINT grifters.

https://t.co/qwKlJzFzBZ

A lot of commentary out there about how Putin is trying to “test” NATO, to intimidate it, to divide it. Is it not possible that Putin wants NATO to shoot down a Russian aircraft? Confirmation that the war is with the West and a precursor to additional steps domestically?

I think this is solid analysis, @amenka, but I wonder about the implications. Does it mean that Putin will seek a permanent war, in part to avoid the pains of a shift back to a civilian economy? Or that projections on the ease of military reconstitution should be revisited?

At the start of the year, when Trump first took office as president, people kept asking me: What happens when he gets disillusioned with Putin? Back then, it seemed unlikely—Trump's someone shaped by circumstances, and it's hard to picture some permanent "disillusionment" setting

If you think that Trump has really changed his mind on Ukraine, I’ve got a bridge to sell you.

Fire Chris McIntosh and Luke Fickell immediately

Play out the story. What happened then for Turkey? Russia imposed economic sanctions and Erdogan was forced to cry uncle and apologize. Don’t push some fairy tale that there were no consequences.

A yes, more “cognitive warfare” and “reflexive control”…it’s all nonsense intended to rationalize a policy approach that doesn’t align with reality

So, now former officials are equating border violations by unarmed drones with truck bombings by international terrorists that killed hundreds of people... https://t.co/mAjdOWq1T7

In a briefing on Tuesday, Pentagon officials did not present conclusive evidence that targets of the recent US military strike on a boat in the Caribbean were members of Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, per sr Dem lawmaker & 3 sources. w/ @NatashaBertrand

I guess I’ll be the one to ask the dumb question: how do we know these are Russian Shahed drones? Has the Polish military issued a statement? Are there radar tracks available in open source? Important to establish facts first.