Nat Bullard
@NatBullard
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Deep decarbonization and the business of climate. @Halcyon , and priors @BloombergNEF , @climate , @VoyagerVC .
Singapore
Joined March 2009
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![Ambassade [Raw]](https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1483110522916589568/JWCHmzZT.jpg)
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It's here: my annual presentation on decarbonization.
There is a lot going on, and I attempt to capture it in 200 slides. Ocean heat content, deforestation, fund performance, vehicle efficiency, lighting technology, GLP-1 agonists, and much more.
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I do not think most people understand what a massive, meaningful achievement this is in a very, very short time. Amazing.
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Chart: passenger electric vehicles are now 10% of total car sales. And most of those sales are pure battery EV, not plug-in hybrid.
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My annual presentation: trends in decarbonization.
The long view; trends and transience; net zero as evolution and revolution. Everything from surface humidity to Nordic heat pump sales to hydrocarbon gravimetric density to hyperobjects.
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Germany new car registrations December 2022:
Electric 33.2%
Plug-in hybrid 22.3%
Petrol 20.6%
Hybrid 12.8%
Diesel 10.8%
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Chart of the year, or decade, and possibly one of the charts of the century so far: China now generated more renewable electricity than all of Europe
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US gasoline prices have almost retraced their level at the start of April
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Compared to 1975, today's U.S. cars are:
94% more fuel efficient
83% more powerful
6% heavier
48% lower emissions
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California, April 30 2022, and a mid-afternoon interval of renewable electricity exceeding electricity demand
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Texas avoided blackouts today. A Gigawatt of demand reduction from cryptocurrency miners helped.
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The evolution of lithium-ion battery pack prices:
2010: $1,191/kWh
2011: $924
2012: $726
2013: $668
2014: $592
2015: $384
2016: $295
2017: $221
2018: $181
2019: $157
2020: $137
(all real 2020$)
Annually from
@BloombergNEF
; analysis by
@JamesTFrith
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Useful data visualization on emissions per mile for electric vehicles and internal combustion engines
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One of the more extraordinary charts I've been able to build*
Thanks to LEDs, US households now use less energy for lighting than for refrigeration. Or, drying clothes.
*(because of the data, not because of me)
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Pretty definitive now that Texas has more utility-scale solar than California
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Chart: the entirety of new power generation growth in 2020 came from wind, solar, and hydropower.
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Nominal U.S. retail gasoline and electricity prices 1994-2021. I don't think I need to specify which is which.
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Car fires by powertrain:
Hybrid: 3,475 per 100,000 sold
Gasoline: 1,530
Electric vehicles: 25
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It’s been 30 years since US household net debt was negative…until now
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Solar and wind were 75% of global power generation capacity additions last year. Don't @ me about 'capacity does not equal generation' or 'does solar work at night'
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In 1965, nuclear power generated slightly more electrons than renewable power. That gap widened for 40 years, tightened for 15, and now Renewable Power > Nuclear.
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Japan canceled what is probably its last planned coal plant.
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Electric vehicles now displace a million barrels a day of oil demand. That's 1%+ of global oil demand in 2019, ~2.5% of transport demand.
Most displacement isn't from cars. Or trucks. Or buses. It's from little things, with two and three wheels.
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Yikes. Horrifying data on U.S. motor vehicle fatalities (in a year with a lot less driving). 38,680 crash fatalities, up 7% from 2019, and:
*Occupant ejections +20%
*Unrestrained passengers +15%
*Speeding-related +11%
Chart: fatalities per miles traveled
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New from
@BloombergNEF
: the cost of electricity from new solar in China, India, or Germany is cheaper than power from existing coal- or gas-fired plants
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Global power sector emissions peaked in 2018 and are probably never coming back.
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Texas solar output is up 39x in six years:
June 2016: 69.8 gigawatt-hours
June 2022: 2,729 gigawatt-hours
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My chart of the day:
*Auto sales peaked in 2017
*Electric vehicle sales keep increasing
*EVs are, therefore 100%+ of sector growth, and have been for years
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In 2019, something happened for only the second time in six decades: global meat production declined.
In 2020, something unprecedented in six decades will happen: global meat production will decline for a second year in a row.
Let's talk peak meat
1/
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Every year
@BloombergNEF
updates its model for the crossover point when electric vehicles will be cheaper upfront than a combustion vehicle.
In 2017 it was 2026 (9 years)
In 2018 it was 2024 (6 years)
In 2019, it's 2022 (3 years)
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Tesla is 70% of the U.S. electric vehicle fleet and it has the most electric vehicles in operation in every U.S. state except for Alaska
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It’s here -
@BloombergNEF
2021 lithium-ion battery price survey. Despite battery metals ⬆️, batteries themselves continue their downward trend to $132 per kilowatt-hour (from $1,220/kWh in 2010). Outstanding work from
@JamesTFrith
and team
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New electric vehicle sales will hit 10.6 million in 2022, up more than 60% from 2021.
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I've seen this data every quarter, but it's still striking. Goodbye, Panamera. Hello, Taycan. 6 quarters after introduction, Taycan is 82% of Porsche sedan sales.
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The global electric vehicle fleet, by year
2014: 274k
2015: 722k
2016: 1.4M
2017: 2.5M
2018: 4.4M
2019: 6.6M
2020: 9.6M
2021: 16M
2022: 26.4M
Latest from
@colinmckerrache
, via
@hyper_drive
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This is very good news for pretty much everything in Germany: climate, energy security, trade, power prices. Hard to overstate what a policy reversal this is too.
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A bit of a milestone:
After 130 years or so of growth, the global fleet of cars with only an internal combustion engine will probably peak in 2022. EVs are already the auto industry's sales growth driver. Soon they will be the fleet growth driver too.
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It's here -
@BloombergNEF
's 2020 New Energy Outlook. Peak energy emissions, peak oil demand, peak coal demand, 56% wind and solar power in 2050, hydrogen pathways, and $78-130 trillion (with a T) in investment 2020-50. Highlights:
#BNEFNEO
THREAD:
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Something I just realized in looking back at seven decades of data: U.S. wind power generation in 2020 (338 Terawatt-hours) is greater than ALL U.S. power generation in 1950 (334 TWh)
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It happened: the energy sector is officially the smallest component of the S&P500. On the way down this year it passed utilities, real estate, and finally materials. Current weighting 2.34%, down from 15.96% in June 2008.
cc
@liamdenning
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Some news from me: 15 years ago, I joined a little UK startup called New Energy Finance. Now, I'm stepping into a new role for
@BloombergNEF
+
@climate
: more writing, less operations, and more engagement across the wide world of climate technology founders, funders, and builders.
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RIP Roger, the kickboxing red kangaroo who was insanely ripped. I’m hoping
@HaidiLun
and the entire Sydney broadcast team will add some commentary to his canned obituary today.
The keeper of Roger the kickboxing kangaroo has paid an emotional tribute to the late, great Aussie fitness icon.
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Norway new car sales in 2021:
65% pure electric
22% plug-in hybrid
6% hybrid
4% diesel
4% petrol
The hybrid Toyota RAV4 is the *only* car in the top 10 with an internal combustion engine
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Wind and solar now generate more power than coal or gas in the European Union
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“Global electric vehicle sales will nearly double in 2022 and comprise around one in seven of all vehicle sales. This is usually the tipping point for market adoption into the exponential growth phase of the S-curve.”
@colinmckerrache
’s work in
@ExponentialView
Charts of the Week
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2020
@BloombergNEF
lithium-ion battery price index drops on Dec 16. Here's the last 10 years: from $1,183 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, to $156/kWh last year, and an expected $135/kWh this year. Let's see how much the market undershoots our prediction.
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Thread: How the world got to $755 billion in energy transition investment in a single year.
@BloombergNEF
did the math. 1/
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US electric vehicle sales in 2023:
📈50.6% YoY (931k to 1,402k)
🔋1,109k battery electric (new record)
🔌293k plug-in hybrid (also a new record)
Preview of my decarbonization deck (out soon).
h/t
@JustinGerdes
for finding
@ENERGY
and
@argonne
data.
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Should this year's US federal energy R&D budget go through as requested, we will be *almost* back to the same outlay as during the Carter administration.
Wondering what our energy system would be like if we'd maintained our 1980 level for 40 years
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The price of lithium-ion storage batteries is down almost 90% in 10 years. We are in the age of the battery, and today's prices, volumes, and applications are just the start.
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Energy transition investment:
2004: $33 Billion
2006: $109B
2008: $182B
2010: $235B
2012: $263B
2014: $297B
2016: $378B
2018: $441B
2020: $0.501 Trillion
New, from
@BloombergNEF
and
@albertwycheung
,
@colinmckerrache
@LoganGoldieScot
@JonasRooze
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Today
@BloombergNEF
published its Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Factbook. Great stuff in here, starting with this: EV sales were 7% of passenger vehicle total in 2Q 2021. 🧵/1
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An extraordinary day, in the most literal (and not really good) sense in the California power grid.
What's different this year, as the grid approaches all-time high demand: batteries.
Labor Day battery energy supplied in California, 2018-2022
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🧵1/ Lithium-ion battery pack prices fell 6% year-on-year to $132 per kilowatt-hour (real 2021$). That's down 90% since 2010's $1240/kWh! But, there is much more to it than headline figures. Highlights from
@BloombergNEF
@JamesTFrith
follow.
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Love this
@berkeleylab
chart: 2020
@BloombergNEF
lithium-ion battery prices are below where 2017
@NREL
study expected they would be in 2040 (moderate scenario) or 2030 (rapid scenario)
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Another important market chart: Friday July 15 was the first day that batteries delivered more instantaneous energy to California's grid than nuclear power.
Tuesday July 19 was the second day.
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Updated electric vehicle sales as % of total car sales, now by region. 3Q 2021:
Europe Middle East Africa 17.4%
Asia Pacific 12%
Americas 3.8%
Global 10.8%
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Ukraine Is Using Quiet Electric Bikes to Haul Anti-Tank Weapons >lightweight batteries and abundant sensors >> drones and e-motorbikes =
@chr1sa
“peace dividend of smartphone wars” becoming war dividend of new consumer electronics and transport designs
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New analysis on pickup truck total cost of ownership:
Internal combustion engine: $58.7k
Electric: $50.1k
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Maybe, hear me out, we're in the midst of a US manufacturing (and manufacturing construction) boom
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Something great from
@tracyalloway
: we are truly genuinely terrible at predicting economic futures, with the result being one of the greatest and ugliest charts in history
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11 years ago electronics were already 35% of the cost of a new car. Going to 50%
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@Wordie
@Noahpinion
This year, the world will install about 3x more solar than the IEA's 2017 projection for 2040.
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Fun data from
@New_AutoMotive
on U.K. new car market.
March 2017: 53% petrol, 43% diesel, 3% hybrid, 1% pure electric
March 2022: 50% petrol, 9% diesel, 25% hybrid, 16% pure electric h/t
@liamdenning
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Wildfire emissions math: this is what California greenhouse gas emissions would look like if we include wildfires, not just anthropogenic inventories.
Approximation: last year’s 🔥s basically undo the industrial/power/transport progress of last 2 decades.
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If you're wondering why people think that vehicle-to-grid technology could play a major role in system-level energy:
There's 10x+ more storage capacity shipped in cars than in grid-tied stationary batteries.
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Electric vehicle versus internal combustion engine vehicle lifetime emissions. Are there more emissions from manufacturing an EV? Yes. Are fuel emissions by far the most significant factor? Also yes.
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This summer, wind and solar will top 11% of US electricity generation
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Another revolution in advanced mobility: the Hello Kitty bullet train
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Some napkin math:
this year's additions of solar (413GW per
@BloombergNEF
) and wind (124GW on+offshore per
@IEA
) should generate 750-800TWh in their first full year of operations.
More than Brazil consumed in 2022 (703TWh). Less than Japan consumed (1,034TWh).
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@HirokoTabuchi
Because I'm the kind of weirdo that keeps this sort of chart (part of a data visualization training exercise for new analysts)...here is Tokyo housing CPI since 1970. It's fascinating for anyone in a big US city!
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Weekend reading: why
@Porsche
is a glimpse of the auto industry’s future. Electric vehicles attract new buyers to a brand; they expand a vehicle type market, then, they outcompete their own incumbent.
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Expecting 187 gigawatts of new solar installations this year. 788 gigawatts installed as of end of last year. 23% growth in cumulative capacity.
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Things not in the light-duty electric vehicle maintenance schedule:
*Transmission
*Sparkplug
*O2 sensor
*Timing belt
*Fuel filter
*Engine air filter
*Oil filter
*Engine coolant
*Engine oil
*Accessory drive belt
h/t
@EmilDimanchev
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This was not the “we had a small amount of sequencing and therefore it’s hard to determine variant prevalence” analogy I was expecting, but it checks out
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Greece hits 100% renewable power for five hours.
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THREAD: Exactly 10 years ago, solar PV module manufacturer Solyndra went bankrupt. It's quite the story. VCs, Silicon Valley, the U.S. Treasury, trade, supply/demand, technology risk/innovation, competition.
And the most important thing, 10 years later? It doesn't matter at all.
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Germany electric vehicle sales:
2019: 3.1% of total
2020: 13.6% of total
2021: 25% of total
Statistics for Germany 🇩🇪 released today:
- 2.6 million new cars registered (-10% vs. 2020)
- 13.6% battery-
#ElectricVehicles
(+83%)
- 12.4% plug-in hybrid vehicles (+62%)
- 119 g/km type-approval CO2 (-15%)
More details to follow, see
@TheICCT
: …
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Useful graphic from
@CoreyBCantor
and the
@BloombergNEF
US team on what, exactly, is in the Inflation Reduction Act (and how it compares to the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill)
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33 gigawatts of solar installed in the US in 2023.
The year I started to look at the market, 2007, the entire market was 298 megawatts.
110x in 16 years.
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Electric vehicles are now almost 10% of new passenger vehicle sales in Europe
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Slide from a presentation earlier this week: expected solar power generation capacity additions of ~180 gigawatts this year will mean more solar has been added in one year than the combined record for coal+gas capacity additions this century
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Four years of BCG’s US electric vehicle sales forecasts, compiled by
@RecurrentAuto
.
2018: 21% of sales in 2030
2020: 26%
2021: 42%
2022: 53%
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My annual
@BloombergNEF
presentation - the critical developments in decarbonizing the global economy. Everything from copper futures to Japan power prices to Australia ancillary services to EV SPACs to IIoT fundraising to sustainable debt issuance
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New
@IEA
: "Advanced economy GDP grew 1.7% but emissions fell 4.5%, a record decline outside of a recessionary period. Having fallen by 520 Mt in 2023, emissions are now back to their level of fifty years ago."
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So...California's latest renewables report is from March 8. Texas' latest is from April 8. But unless California is building solar at a 10 gigawatt annual run rate (it is not)...
Texas now has more utility-scale solar than California.
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Two things happened at once on Saturday in California:
1. Renewables were 99.87% of grid demand
2. Almost 3GW of solar+wind was curtailed
So - what will people do in future with all that free zero-carbon power,
@jp_attwood
@meredith_annex
@posamentier
@ataylorharbour
?
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It was not until 1955 that the U.S. had more tractors than horses and mules working on farms. A brief thread (from this awesome paper) on what mechanization did for U.S. agriculture.
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2.2 million electric vehicles have been sold in the U.S. to date.
2.215 million EVs were sold in China between February and October of 2021.
EVs are now just under 20% of sales in China, of which 4/5 are battery EV, 1/5 plug-in hybrid.
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A simple calc, but striking enough that I checked it twice: China's renewable electricity generation growth in 2021.
In 2020: 863.2 terawatt-hours
In 2021: 1,152.5 TWh
Change: +289.3 TWh
UK final electricity consumption in 2021: 285TWh
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The meat of it: winterizing a wind turbine for -30F/-30C arctic conditions adds 5% to capex
Researchers at an Arctic test site in Sweden are learning how to keep wind turbines generating through the harshest winter weather. That knowledge would have come in handy in Texas this week
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Important data, and an important chart:
Windpower construction costs +7% year on year
Solar +14%
Batteries +8%
But with coal/gas prices ⬆️, the renewable discount to coal/gas power is widening, not shrinking. Discount to gas is the biggest ever right now
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Electric vehicle sales as % of total car sales:
2% in 2019
4% in 2020
8% in 2021
~13% in 2022
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So...Germany installed 220,000 residential storage battery systems last year. +52% year on year.
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