Colin Mckerracher
@colinmckerrache
Followers
17,997
Following
1,615
Media
375
Statuses
6,041
Head of Clean Transport at @BloombergNEF . Canadian. Tweets about EVs, charging, batteries, clean aviation, shipping and more. Opinions are my own.
Oslo, Norway
Joined April 2013
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
PayPay
• 243871 Tweets
Jokic
• 101721 Tweets
Joker
• 65388 Tweets
#PLEDIS_PROTECT_JOSHUA
• 51357 Tweets
Portable
• 46618 Tweets
Gobert
• 43411 Tweets
PROTECT YOUR ARTIST
• 42088 Tweets
ロッキン
• 39178 Tweets
アニメ化
• 36410 Tweets
$FURY
• 34739 Tweets
花ざかりの君たち
• 21164 Tweets
PRABOWOsiapkan KerjaTERBAIK
• 19620 Tweets
DPOY
• 19323 Tweets
KitaDUKUNG KitaSUPPORT
• 18911 Tweets
カエルの為
• 14630 Tweets
結束バンド
• 13394 Tweets
障害発生
• 11892 Tweets
San Isidro
• 11863 Tweets
#darbe
• 11494 Tweets
ペイペイ
• 11038 Tweets
坂本勇人
• 10790 Tweets
Things I like this morning:
All the garbage trucks in my neighborhood have gone electric. Beautifully silent.
78
307
2K
You often hear people who claim that all these EV batteries "will end up in a landfill" because they can't be recycled.
They won't. And the opposite problem is taking shape: there's more recycling capacity coming than there is battery scrap available
52
546
2K
Once you start to see how much urban space we've devoted to storing privately owned cars, you really can't unsee it.
30
460
2K
Shenzhen:
May 1st: all new commercial light duty trucks = EVs
From July 1: Only EVs allowed in ride hailing
By Dec 31:
Replace all remaining taxis with EVs
Build 5,200 EV chargers for taxis
Retire 20,000 diesel light duty trucks
City policies will reshape auto markets.
45
778
2K
China installed 112,000 public EV charging points in December 2020 alone. That’s more than the size of the entire U.S. public charging network, installed in a single month.
33
346
1K
I'm sympathetic to the workers affected, but I can't help but feel this transition to EVs would have been a lot less painful if some automakers had spent the last decade preparing for it instead of fighting it.
57
283
1K
Do people realize just how good Chinese EVs are now?
67
130
1K
By the end of this year, passenger EVs and electric buses will be displacing about 350,000 barrels per day of oil demand.
via
@technology
37
503
1K
There are now 5 million electric vehicles on the road globally. Three years ago there was 1 million.
39
361
1K
The rise of electric vehicles means gasoline demand in China peaks this year. It's all downhill from here.
My latest:
40
349
993
Global electric vehicle fleet:
September 2015: 900,000
September 2020: 9 million
28
303
973
If you build it, they will come. Cycling up 54% in Paris.
16
315
936
People posting pictures of end-of-life scooters and shared bikes as proof that this isn't the future of mobility should really visit an auto scrap yard.
Here's VW's from the emissions scandal in the U.S. Each one of those is a car:
27
322
937
Global electric vehicle fleet at the end of:
2010: 10,000
2015: 1 million
2020: 10 million
34
217
900
Big news! Jaguar will become an all-electric brand from 2025.
It's all happening fast now.
24
244
886
Lots of headlines written about how EV demand is faltering. Is it?
Global EV sales are on pace for a record year. Heading for around 14 million sold, up 36%.
36
309
860
Electric vehicles of all types are currently displacing about 1.5 million barrels a day of oil demand. Most of it from electric two/three-wheelers and electric buses in Asia.
More from my colleagues
@albertwycheung
and Aleksandra O'Donovan here:
27
315
809
Where things stand on vehicle electrification at the end of 2022
40
254
799
Global electric bus fleet:
2012: 5,000
2019: 425,000
18
284
761
I'm in Shenzhen for the first time. The full fleet switchover to 16,000 electric buses and over 20,000 electric taxis has a very real impact on overall noise and air quality.
22
196
734
Internal combustion vehicle sales peaked in 2017. They are down nearly 20% from that peak, and have no real route back.
My latest:
38
260
732
Global electric vehicle sales:
1st million: ~20 years
2nd million: 18 months
3rd million: 8 months
18
500
627
Lots of noise when these were opened. And now, the end.
All as expected.
33
200
610
OPEC's 2015 World Oil Outlook expected 4.7 million battery electric vehicles on the road in 2040.
Actual tally in mid-2021: over 8 million
33
212
604
Electric vehicles hit 5% of total vehicle sales in China in August.
Up from:
2.1% in 2017
~1% in 2016.
21
226
590
Cities pushing back against the primacy of private car ownership/usage is going to be one of the big themes of the 2020s.
15
163
592
Very soon, everybody will claim that they always knew the energy transition was coming and that it would upend industries.
But anybody who did a lot of briefings and presentations in the 2000s and 2010s will know that this was not really a widely held view in most sectors.
37
85
593
UPS signs a £340 million contract for 10,000 electric delivery vans for Arrival, option to purchase another 10,000. This segment is going to move quickly.
19
226
574
Electric vehicles were 5.1% of sales in China in September. ICE sales in the world's largest auto market were down 15%. Western automakers misjudged the speed and force of China's EV push.
20
280
559
There were almost 90,000 electric buses sold in China last year alone. The global fleet of e-buses is already displacing around 170,000 barrels per day of oil demand. Rising fast.
21
305
531
China: electric vehicles reached 7.4% of passenger vehicles sales in Q4 2018, up from ~2% in 2017.
The speed and force of China's EV push will continue to surprise people.
14
292
551
This ship in Gothenburg is being electrified:
Stage 1: 1 MWh battery, mostly for docking maneuvers
Stage 2: 20 MWh battery, 10 mile electric-only range
Stage 3: 50 MWh battery, 50 mile electric range
The snowball of lithium-ion battery applications is really rolling now.
22
208
544
Big news.
In case you're just joining us: China really wants electric vehicles to succeed. Its push will reshape auto and energy markets.
9
194
541
We are currently on pace to end 2019 with just under 8 million EVs on the road.
At the end of 2016 there were 2 million.
18
183
521
Countries with internal combustion vehicle phase-out targets:
Norway
Netherlands
France
UK
Slovenia
Taiwan
Israel
Denmark
Ireland
Mexico
Iceland
Costa Rica
Sweden
Scotland
Am I missing any?
72
208
509
Chinese EV sales are taking off: 73,000 sold in April alone.
For reference, U.S. EV sales in April were 19,500
14
329
490
Number of electric vehicle models available globally:
2010: 21
2012: 46
2014: 73
2016: 136
2018: 292
2020e: 418
Source: BNEF EV data hub. Includes BEVs and PHEVs, model tally at year end.
11
247
498
EVs hit 6.5% of total passenger vehicle sales in China in November.
Two years ago the consensus view would have said that was impossible.
14
202
478
You can be optimistic on the role of hydrogen while being skeptical on putting it into light duty passenger cars.
26
60
480
Over 1,000 electric bus sales in Europe so far in 2019.
The 2018 total was 562.
China still way ahead, but this segment is picking up speed everywhere.
13
172
437
China now has:
-2 million passenger EVs on the road
-400,000 e-buses
~5 million low speed electric vehicles
-150 million electric two-wheelers
Oil demand growth in China will be lower than many expect.
9
203
427
One of my favorite genres in this platform is old white men sharing stories about how EVs don't work for them and how this means they'll never take off.
Guys, we get it, you won't be early adopters. That's ok.
42
47
438
37% of all new passenger vehicle sales in China last month were fully electric or plug-in hybrid.
26
150
427
My latest piece for
@business
looks at how much EVs actually add to total electricity demand. It's probably less than you think:
28
159
426
This was one of the surprising findings from our outlook this year. The 180+ million electric two-wheelers in China and 500,000 e-buses are already putting a bigger dent in oil demand than many people realize.
Electric vehicles now displace a million barrels a day of oil demand. That's 1%+ of global oil demand in 2019, ~2.5% of transport demand.
Most displacement isn't from cars. Or trucks. Or buses. It's from little things, with two and three wheels.
21
317
658
9
168
413
This is a very big deal for the U.S. electric vehicle market.
Biden is proposing $174 billion in investment, covering everything from EV chargers, to buses, government fleet changeover, and more. A pivotal moment.
11
169
420
Today we published our 2021 Electric Vehicle Outlook. We first launched this in 2016 after seeing that the only groups commenting on the long term outlook for road transport were oil companies, and they were dramatically underplaying the changes afoot.
14
154
419
Los Angeles orders 130 electric buses, the largest order yet in the US.
BYD now offering a 12 year warranty on its batteries.
7
119
408
Electric vehicles at 20-25% of sales by 2025 would mean sales of internal combustion vehicles in the world's largest auto market have already peaked. Plan accordingly.
13
198
399
EV sales in Europe are really picking up.
January share of sales at:
Italy - 2.1%
Spain - 4.1%
Belgium - 5.5%
Denmark - 7%
Netherlands - 7.6%
France - 8.2%
Portugal - 11%
Sweden - 31%
Norway - 64%
Source:
26
191
401
Year-on-year sales growth of internal combustion passenger vehicles in China:
2000-2016: Booming
2017: Flat
2018 and 2019: Plunging
15
209
391
2018 sales of internal combustion passenger vehicles in China (year-on-year):
July: -7%
August: -7%
September: -14%
October: -16%
November: - ~20%
What if passenger ICE sales in the world's largest auto market have already peaked?
14
225
391
Betting against further battery cost declines is betting against human ingenuity. So far, that's been a really bad bet.
10
163
384
I love my bicycle. I ride it everywhere in London and my son whoops on every downhill. And I want to see more cycle friendly cities, with more public transit
But to tackle climate change in time, we need to electrify the hell out of the car fleet. I don't see a way around this.
30
84
397
Yes, it's a small country, and yes, it's hard to replicate, but what Norway has accomplished on EV adoption is incredible and would have been dismissed as impossible 5 years ago.
Norway car sales Sep 2018: Record month for BEVs at 45%, diesel down to 12%. New test procedure (WLTP) possibly an influencing factor. Rolling 3 mths share BEVs: 32%
#elbil
#ElectricVehicles
@dinside_no
2
84
125
20
223
376
Our 2017 Lithium-ion battery price survey is out! 24% drop from 2016 levels. Average pack costs of $209/kWh, cells at $147/kWh. Some really low numbers in there this year.
16
367
370
If it moves, and it's on land, somebody is working on electrifying it.
15
82
379
Saudi energy minister claims EVs are only displacing 30,000 barrels per day.
Off by an order of magnitude; including e-buses it's now close to 300,000 barrels per day.
34
209
361
We just crossed over 2m EVs on the road. So yeah, second million took just under 18 months. Next million in about 10 months.
11
317
363
The global EV market has now weathered:
- Historically low oil prices
- Spikes in battery material prices
- The bottom falling out of overall vehicle sales in major markets like China
Despite all this, The EV market is on pace to grow another ~40% this year.
9
112
359
I bought a new bicycle this week.
My old one had about 30,000 km on it. Annual running costs were under £50 a year (+ some extra food/fuel).
Conclusion: bicycles are amazing.
13
36
355
Countries that have announced plans to phase out sales of new internal combustion vehicles, and years remaining to target:
21
179
359
There are now about 7 million electric vehicles on the road globally. In 2015 there were 1 million.
9
122
359
Plug-in vehicles hit 15% of the world's largest auto market in June. Fully electric share at 12%. Remarkable numbers, rising fast now.
15
126
349
Global number of public EV charging connectors:
2010: 13,000
2012: 73,000
2014: 131,000
2016: 317,000
2018: 628,000
2020: 1,353,000
Source:
@BloombergNEF
EV data hub
22
112
344
Things I like this morning: every 4th lamp post on a street near mine is now also an EV charger.
A patchwork of solutions is emerging.
14
72
342
Vehicle sales falling in almost every major market while GDP grows. New territory.
At some point we're going to have to acknowledge that either:
1. New mobility models and generational shifts are having a real impact
2. There's a global recession coming
3. Both 1 and 2.
37
174
341
Honest question to those who think almost everybody will switch to mobility as a service by 2030: How will an evacuation of 6.5m ppl work?
77
200
330
An EV bought four years ago in the Netherlands is now running 30% cleaner than when it rolled off the line.
In 2019 produceerde NL elektriciteit met gemiddeld 370 gram CO2 per kWh (44 Mton in totaal)
De CO2 daalt gestaag door groei hernieuwbaar en sluiting kolencentrales. In 2019 extra reductie door goedkoop aardgas & hoge CO2 prijs, waardoor kolen-power te duur werd.
#grafiekvandedag
12
27
56
5
105
332
Number of public EV charging points installed globally:
2015: 185,000
2019: 773,000
Source:
@BloombergNEF
EV data hub
11
140
329
Looks like around 1 out of every 40 vehicles sold in the US last month had a plug. California probably closer to 1 in 10. Remarkable progress.
6
96
322
To everybody who flogged that FT article on CO2 last week as proof of how flawed EVs are, Here's what the actual study authors at MIT said about their work.
Same conclusion as us: EVs emit lower CO2 per km even in coal-heavy parts of the grid.
16
317
321
Next time somebody says EVs will definitely break the electricity system, direct them to this tweet from the group that runs the electricity system.
#Electricvehicles
🚗can have a positive effect on the electricity system. Smart charging & 'vehicle to grid' technology can bring low cost energy to motorists, accommodate more renewable power and strengthen the grid too. 🚗👍⚡️👉Read more
@Tiberius42
4
99
171
17
161
316
Another automaker making the jump. Volvo going fully EV by 2030, targetting 50% of sales by 2025.
There's a limit to the number of drivetrain technologies smaller automakers can support. As the trajectory gets clearer, so does the right strategy.
Betting on death of petrol cars, Volvo to go all electric by 2030
41
230
811
9
89
325
We're heading for serious overcapacity in the battery market. Good news for automakers and EV buyers, but challenging times ahead for new entrants to the battery game.
More in my latest for
@BloombergNEF
here:
23
115
324
700km range and 200kW charging capability. EVs will keep getting better, and we're nowhere near the end of the road on this.
14
63
311
Sales of battery electric vehicles up 240% in the UK in February.
Diesel down 27%, petrol down 7%.
11
127
316
Hi folks, some personal news: last week my wife and I welcomed our new daughter to the world! We're all doing well, and enjoying being a family of four now.
I'll be off Twitter for the next few months, take care everybody and and stay safe!
39
2
313
More of these anti-noise radars please.
I've never understood why we allow motorbikes to make incredible amounts of noise in areas where thousands of people live.
23
66
309
I saw 9 different EV models on my ride home in London this evening. Plus 5 electric buses and about a dozen electric taxis. Game on.
13
41
308
Imperial College finds similar results to BNEF: on average EVs in the UK emit less than half the CO2 of their internal combustion counterparts, even when factoring in battery manufacturing emissions. And this could drop to a tenth within 5 years.
7
187
308
In the last week:
-Europe indicated it will tighten it's 2030 CO2 target
-California announce a 2035 internal combustion vehicle phase out
-China announced a 2060 carbon neutrality target
Things are changing quickly. Company strategies should too.
6
81
306
China is really crushing it on EV fast charger installations. Heading for 6X the rest of world combined this year.
15
92
304
EV sales growth has been remarkable during the last 3 years of low oil prices. Now let's see what happens with oil at +$70/barrel and lots of new models.
11
136
295
A black cab getting charged up on my ride to work today.
High utilisation urban vehicles will go electric quickly.
13
90
296
3 years ago we published a comparison of our EV adoption outlook with OPEC's. This felt bold at the time, and yet still undershot. It's amazing how fast the consensus has shifted.
17
158
289
This electric ferry carries up to 200 cars, 600 passengers. It has a 4 MWh battery and charges at up to 9 MW.
Electrification keeps making inroads into areas that were considered off limits just a few years ago.
@DJBurges
@Gill_Nowell
@FullyChargedDan
Just got a new one also 🙂
Just now worlds largest, Bastø Electric. 140 meters in length.
Soon ready to "sail" Horten-Moss, in addition two similar ferrys will be rebuilt to electric.
6
3
30
5
119
293
If anybody doubts the importance of policy for EV adoption, the EV share of sales is now running at about 20% in Germany, while in the U.S. it's closer to 3%.
All eyes on the proposed fuel economy standards update this summer....
14
79
291
5 years ago we decided to build an automotive practice at BNEF. We now provide data, analysis and consulting services to the strategy teams of almost every major automaker in the world.
And yet the thing I'm most excited about for the next few years is probably the humble e-bike
16
57
283
My column for
@business
and
@BloombergNEF
this week looks at cobalt going into EVs and how it highlights the ways people often underestimate market forces
11
99
288
Great quote. There won't be enough synthetic fuels for everyone:
“Oliver can maybe have some for his 911, but we really need the volumes,” Spohr said, referring to Porsche AG CEO Oliver Blume’s push to get exemptions from combustion engine bans."
21
103
289
Lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity today: 167 GWh
Under construction: +85 GWh
Announced by 2022: +336 GWh
The supply chain is maturing quickly
Data from the
@BloombergNEF
database tracking hundreds of plants around the world.
8
195
275
We launched BNEF’s 2022 EV Outlook today! There's lots of information in the publicly available exec summary, which you can find here:
A few interesting highlights in this thread
11
114
282
Electric bus projects in Chile, Colombia and Ecuador all announced in the last few months. As we said in our report last year: this segment is approaching the tipping point.
HUGE News From
#Ecuador
Ecuadorian Vice President,
@ottosonnenh
, traveled to the port of Manta to welcome 20
#BYD
battery-electric buses to the South American country.
Full Story—
Follow
@BYDelectricoEC
for more info
#Transportation
#Bus
#Technology
3
31
86
8
109
278
The world is changing.
11
72
275
Bogotà is buying 379 electric buses from BYD.
E-buses are competitive on total cost of ownership and offer significant improvements in urban air quality.
Next up: delivery vans.
5
116
282
China passenger vehicle sales down 17.7% in January (y-o-y)
Electric vehicle sales? well, they were up 138% in January.
8
164
272
Two-wheelers in China are the largest - and arguably most successful - vehicle electrification program in the world. Watch India and South East Asia next.
10
77
276
Reducing emissions from rail and shipping should get easier over time as we move to more renewables and EVs.
Why? Because a lot of rail and shipping energy use is spent moving coal and oil around.
One of the findings from this year's New Energy Outlook.
@SebHenbest
#BNEFSummit
13
129
276