Mark Blumenthal
@MysteryPollster
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Pollster. Husband. Father. Cyclist. YouGov, SurveyMonkey, HuffPost, co-creator. Follow & reach me:
Washington, DC
Joined January 2008
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I'm no longer actively posting on Twitter, though I check in from time to time. I will continue to post on three other platforms, also as "MysteryPollster":
Mastodon
BlueSky
Threads
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New
@YahooNews
/
@YouGovAmerica
poll: Dems lead Republicans among those who say they'll 'definitely' vote in midterms
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@YahooNews
@YouGovAmerica
The new poll includes a split form test of ‘no fly zone’ — support plummets when respondents told NFZ means “the U.S. military would shoot down Russian military planes flying over Ukraine, possibly triggering a war between the U.S. and Russia”
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We did a
@SurveyMonkey
poll on Alabama senate, but differences in likely vote methods make for everything from +8 Jones to +9 Moore
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And Warren is the leading choice for VP among less-enthusiastic Biden voters. More details in the full article. 4/4
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Some news. I wrote a piece for
@FiveThirtyEight
(!): How A Big Enough News Story — Like Impeachment — Could Warp The Polls
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Trump’s approval bumped up in
@SurveyMonkey
tracking to 47% approve (+3), 51% disapprove (-3) for week of 9/27-10/3
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2: Trump’s strong approval (now 22) keeps ticking down; strong disapproval (now 46) keeps ticking up
@SurveyMonkey
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New
@YahooNews
/
@YouGovAmerica
poll: Confidence in Supreme Court collapses as just 33% agree with decision to overturn Roe v. Wade
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This needs a corollary about the time between when polls close and most ballots are counted
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1/ So let's begin by conceding that our polls, like most others, erred in showing Hillary Clinton headed to a victory
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.
@anamariecox
Meet Luna. She’s a two-year-old rescue who joined our family yesterday, so her “national emergency” is over! Thanks to
@OBGCockerRescue
!
#Adorables
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Nate's point is illustrated by my newly published analysis, which shows that in those areas affected early — with *very* high rates of infection & death — worry about coronavirus has remained consistently higher
Other places were also VERY high. 5% were simultaneously infected in New Orleans, Boston and Detroit at their peaks.
When this many people are sick at once, you really notice it. Why? Friends and family get it. You may have to self-quarantine, etc.
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New from me: A split sample experiment in the last Yahoo News/YouGov poll showed the $1.9 trillion piece tag *increased* support for the COVID-19 relief legislation
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New: The weekly
@TheEconomist
/
@YouGovAmerica
surveys ask about voter enthusiasm in three ways, which allows for a reality check on the Trump-Biden "enthusiasm gap" 1/
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It breaks my heart to report that Sophie Magerl passed away Sunday morning after a two-year battle with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. She was just 17 years old.
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Overlooked? While Trump reinforces his high negatives, Clinton’s favorable rating ticks up
@SurveyMonkey
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Some personal news: After three exhilarating years, today is my last day at SurveyMonkey. I'm moving on to pursue other opportunities and looking forward to the next great adventure. Stay tuned...
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It’s happening! crews started painting lane lines today on Virginia Ave protected bike lane
#BikeDC
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CBS/Knowledge Networks poll of uncommitted debate viewers: Who won the debate? 53% Obama, 23% Romney, 24% tie
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@anamariecox
Our recently rescued pup Luna knows nothing of the current administration, but she loves her first DC Spring with cherry blossoms
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My daughter lost her best friend. Two loving parents lost their only child. And the world lost an irrepressible spirit who was just beginning to blossom.
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HuffPollster: Forget the dress. DO YOU SEE DATA OR A PYRAMID??!?
http://t.co/R1hW9ph4ta
http://t.co/lI1htVKQUP
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A lot we don’t know, of course, but I think I speak for everyone in the polling business in saying, “there but for the grace of god..”
Confirmed:
@cnn
has cancelled their presentation of the
@DMRegister
poll that had been slated for 8 Central.
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Registered voters who stayed home cost Clinton the election, says
@ForecasterEnten
using
@SurveyMonkey
data
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1) New
@NBCNews
/
@SurveyMonkey
poll: 54% say Trump’s dismissal of Comey not appropriate, 38% appropriate…
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Obama’s final job approval [adults]: 61-37. Trump as pres-elect: 45-53. And polarization? You betcha
@SurveyMonkey
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Finally, the persistent "never" category remains biggest among white Republicans and white non-college adults. More details in the article:
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A deeper dive by me into some recent
@YouGovUS
/
@YahooNews
polling: Yes, Americans divide on party lines in their *perceptions* of coronavirus, but much less on *tangible actions*: The gap between Ds and Rs on self-reported social distancing is slight. 1/
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@SeanTrende
@NateSilver538
Just published this, but thought it would be of interest & relevant to this thread…
A deeper dive by me into some recent
@YouGovUS
/
@YahooNews
polling: Yes, Americans divide on party lines in their *perceptions* of coronavirus, but much less on *tangible actions*: The gap between Ds and Rs on self-reported social distancing is slight. 1/
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However...that gap narrows to single digits when the "enthusiasm" question is about the *election* rather than the *candidates* 3/
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Sophie loved art, writing, comedy and theatre. She admired the cast of SNL and dreamed of someday joining Second City. When they were younger, the girls hatched a plan to attend college in NYC. We're proud that Deena will start at NYU this fall, but sadly, without her BFF.
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Trump disapproval hits 60% in
@SurveyMonkey
tracking; overall approval 39% Has been in 39-41% range for 18 of last 20 weeks
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If you’ve not yet read
@benyt
’s profile of Arnon Mishkin, who runs the Fox News decision desk, now would be a good time:
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The treatments helped Sophie beat back a relapse and get well enough to spend time at home and with friends this spring, to go to prom and travel with her father and Deena to NYC where she got to see SNL in person
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Endorse
Every election I have friends who ask me "hearing anything?" As if there's some secret bank of info available outside of exit polls etc. There isn't.
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The key trend lost in the search for whether the “real” Clinton-Trump margin is +12, +4 or something in between:
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And the Trump-Biden gap disappears altogether when we ask about the "importance" of voting for president in 2020 4/
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What's more interesting is how favorability and VP preference differ among Biden voters who feel least enthusiastic about his candidacy. Among these voters, Warren has a higher favorable rating than Harris... 3/
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Most see race discrimination as a serious problem, with huge partisan differences
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New: Recent
@YahooNews
/
@YouGov
polling shows a massive difference in presidential vote when tabbed by *how* voters want to cast ballots: Biden leads 70-14 w/ those who want to vote by mail; Trump leads 59-28 w/ those who want to vote on Election Day 1/
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Thanks
@NateSilver538
! Actually, you don’t need the WayBack machine. lives!!
The
@MysteryPollster
archive from 2004 still has some pretty darned great info on polling fundamentals.
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We buried my Dad yesterday. He was 84. Ed Blumenthal was exceptionally tolerant, caring and progressive. He worked hard, was true to his word and proud of his heritage… [Thread]
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Trump job rating ticks up in
@SurveyMonkey
tracking this week: 45 approve (+3), 53 disapprove (-2)
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55% of Democratic voters name Clinton the debate winner in a new HuffPost/YouGov poll
http://t.co/4AKuVJmhFn
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Back here for a minute to say I'm feeling very proud and appreciative that
@gelliottmorris
incorporated a Transparency Score, based on my research presented at AAPOR 2023, into
@FiveThirtyEight
's newly updated Pollster Ratings, out today:
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Same pattern - no significant gap - when looking at the "likelihood of voting" question asked by the YouGov/
@CBSNewsPoll
battleground tracker 5/
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CBS KN instant reaction poll: Big win for Romney. By 46-22 say think won, 56% have better opinion of Romney, Romney cares up from 30 to 63
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Today’s
@SurveyMonkey
electoral map update: Florida flips back to lean D, Clinton leads EV count 291-179
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1/ Final update of
@SurveyMonkey
Election Tracking map, Clinton leads 257-188, with no toss-ups 334-188 (GA even)
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That's not a typo: respondents who saw "$1.9 trillion" in the question were *more* supportive of the legislation (58%) than those who did not (51%)
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New from me on questions on Biden's VP selection that Economist/YouGov has been running the last two weeks. While Harris and Warren lead others as most popular choice, there is no clear front-runner 1/
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Consistent with other research from
@kabir_here
@NotMelissaBell
&
@RnMendoz
showing enthusiasm and excitement are poor predictors of turnout in recent elections - see full article for more 6/6
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1:
@SurveyMonkey
tracking for March 24-27 finds Trump approval still down at 42%, but no further decline since Fri
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Massive must read MT
@pewresearch
: How political polarization in America is affecting politics
http://t.co/ObStXS1Yb2
http://t.co/W65WvFnUpx
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New
@YahooNews
/
@YouGovAmerica
poll: Signature DeSantis policies unpopular with Americans ahead of likely presidential run
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Among the biggest challenges to UK pollsters this year, a massive difference in voter preferences by age
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I understood that the groundbreaking treatments described in this video were likely not a cure, but they offered something even more precious than hope: They gave her more time.
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Clinton maintains solid national lead in NBC/
@SurveyMonkey
poll +6 on 4-way vote among LV; +8 on 2-way
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New from me and the
@YahooNews
/
@YouGovAmerica
poll): Even the weather is politicized
In the US in 2021, even the weather is politicized...
In the 14 states hit hardest by the recent heat wave:
🔵 78% of Democrats said they noticed more extreme weather events where they live (15% did not)
🔴 49% of Republicans noticed (48% did not)
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Good news,
#bikeDC
, looks like work on the Virginia Ave NW PBL/cycle-track is about to begin. These stripes painted from Rock Creek Parkway to (at least) 23rd Street underpass.
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64% of Americans believe Michael Cohen's claim that President Trump ordered him to make illegal payments - new poll from
@axios
/
@SurveyMonkey
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Strong disapproval of Trump hits new high (48%) in
@SurveyMonkey
tracking, >2:1 vs strong approval (22%)
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Latest NBC News/
@SurveyMonkey
poll confirms narrowed race but finds no additional convention bounce for Trump
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This week’s NBC/
@SurveyMonkey
Election Tracking poll shows Clinton’s lead over Trump widening to +8 (49-41)
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Final NBC News/
@SurveyMonkey
national poll update: Clinton maintains 6-point lead over Trump 47-41
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7/ Trump going scorched earth negative at Clinton is *not* going to play well with that audience, who likely want to hear something positive
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Clinton holds decisive Electoral College lead in 15 battleground state polls from WashPost/
@SurveyMonkey
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Few in polling are as accomplished, kind and admired as Scott Keeter. So well deserved.
#AAPOR
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New NBC/
@SurveyMonkey
poll: Clinton's lead holds at 50-41; voters doubt Trump's temperament
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Yes, sad to be leaving Pollster and HuffPost, but very excited to join
@jcpolls
and his team at
@SurveyMonkey
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Note this well....
All it takes is 3 out of every 100 Trump supporters to flip to Clinton for this to turn into a double-digit blowout.
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4/4 icymi: Democratic advantage on national U.S. House vote ticks up
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3/ Another approach: Avg. Clinton lead on a range of possible scenarios is 321-217 w/ 96% chances of win
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For the last 11 years, my response to cancer's horrific cruelty has been to ride and ask for donations, so I need to say it again: You can support cancer research and honor Sophie with a donation to the
@DanaFarber
Cancer Institute via the PMC:
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Yesterday was sad for a lot of reasons, but in laying off
@gsparks94
,
@HuffPost
is effectively killing Pollster as you’ve known it… 1/
Some news about HuffPost Pollster. Due to staff reductions, we have had to dramatically reduce the scope of what we track.
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In other news, I also completed my 11th PanMass Challenge yesterday morning. Obviously, the timing of Sophie's passing had nothing to do with
#PMC2021
. But the PMC has everything to do with how we fight cancer.
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Alabama update: we added four more days worth of data from
@SurveyMonkey
’s tracking, still much divergence depending on LV method however…
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Don’t need to tell you this, because I’m sure you follow her, but Ariel is the most talented person I know writing about and doing public opinion research. I’m biased, but the 4ish years spent sharing a byline with her were a gift. Someone smart will hire her immediately
After nine years at HuffPost, I am unfortunately saying goodbye to my incredible colleagues. I'm so proud of the work we've done.
If you're looking to hire someone who loves writing about public opinion, good data and awful puns, please get in touch.
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A deep dive by
@SurveyMonkey
’s
@laurawronski
on the time of day n=219K responded to our election tracking polls
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There is a big gap (28 points) in expressed enthusiasm for Trump & Biden among their respective supporters... 2/
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Full article: Clinton maintains 47-41 lead in NBC/
@SurveyMonkey
poll despite FBI letter Lead unchanged over weekend
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Also the prevailing view of Martin Luther King...when he was alive
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We used 163k
@SurveyMonkey
interviews since June to tab Trump approval for all 50 states, including battleground
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About to chaperone seven fourteen-year-old boys for an escape room birthday party. I’m the only adult. Pray for me…
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CBS News Knowledge Networks poll of undecided debate viewers found 50% thought Biden won, 31% Ryan won, and 19% tie
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Remember that holiday Trump approval bump in
@SurveyMonkey
’s tracking? It’s all gone: 40% approve, 58% disapprove
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3. We saw big drop on Wed/Thu following Trump's presser, based on large sample-sizes before/after (n=14K full week)
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1:
@SurveyMonkey
tested GOP ACA replacement plan: 42 favor, 55 oppose, with 38 strongly opposed, 18 strongly favor
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.
@NBCNews
@SurveyMonkey
3) 55% say Comey’s dismissal make them less confident in fair Russian investigation, 36% more confident
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New update of
@SurveyMonkey
electoral map gives Clinton 262-179 EV lead Many toss-ups, now including WI… 1/2
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