Michael Stephens
@MikeRStephens
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Senior Fellow @FPRI , Senior Associate Fellow @RUSI_Org @RANDEurope & @WeAreBrightBlue Views my own, RTs not endorsements....Fulham FC
London
Joined July 2011
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First copies of the book have arrived! A comprehensive look at British policy in the Middle East with long lasting thoughts and recommendations for policy makers and the general reader alike.
Many thanks
@cjophillips
for driving this forward with me over the past two years.
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I have worked on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for nearly twenty years.
Honestly I have no f'ing clue what's going on. What this means. Or where this heads. Literally anything is possible.
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I think I need to say what many in the strategic studies community is quietly thinking, and indeed saying to me.
Israel appears qualitatively far weaker than we had presupposed, and the dysfunction has bleed into many facets of their political and security apparatus (not all).
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The idea of banning the Palestinian flag in the UK concerns me deeply to be honest. Palestine has various forms of international recognition, and is recognised as a state by around 80 countries (9 from the G20) People are from there and have a legitimate right to express that.
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@FADCLDN
I spent four hours on Thursday night talking about the current state of the conflict, Palestinian internal politics and particularly Hamas, and the trajectory of it all. This scenario never came up, not once.
Time for a rethink.
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Regardless of how you feel about this conflict or who you support, Israel has played its hand shambolically. At the macro level its regional policy is in tatters, at the micro level it has achieved none of its stated aims.
They're in a no man's land of sub-optimal choices.
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The lack of strategic planning for a range of eventualities in Gaza is staggering to me frankly. How can Israel not have a preferred end-state for a territory it considers hostile?
How can their be no plan for effective counterinsurgency in the Strip above the tactical?
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I think back to past Israeli leaders, Dayan, Rabin, Sharon, Barak...they would be looking on aghast at the current crop of politicians and securocrats.
You may not have liked them, but they knew what they wanted to achieve and how to do it. This lot don't, it's that simple.
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But it is clear to me that there is no consensus on what to do, how to do it, or what the second order effects of that might mean.
Israel should have turned to Arab neighbours and brought them in to finally take down Hamas. Instead it drove them all away, and isolated itself.
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Any half decent military usually has a shopping list of plans ready to go for its leaders. Perhaps those plans do exist...and maybe the issue is that civilian leadership just simply doesn't know what a military instrument can and cannot do, and where it aids the political debate.
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There's a lot of debate about "from the river to the sea" being unacceptable, and maximalist claims being code words for antisemitism/genocide. This is well understood.
But we need consistent standards here. What does this mean if it's from an official Israeli Gov channel?
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A couple of things to say about this clip, and a couple of other clips I've watched a few times over the past day.
The tactics used by the police are fascinating, when protestors start to get fired up they back away quickly. Almost making it seem like they are running away.
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There is a lot of subtext in this statement.
For those wanting to understand the regional implications, and prospects for normalisation. Read this. Then read it again.
#Statement
| The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is closely following the developments of the unprecedented situation between a number of Palestinian factions and the Israeli occupation forces, which has resulted in a high level of violence on several fronts there.
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@DannyPunton
@FADCLDN
No I don’t believe that.
So it’s a good thing I’m not an academic sitting around discussing papers then isn’t it.
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This is a big deal...genuinely. No, not because Saudi and Iran have patched things up. That will ebb and flow.
But because the US was nowhere near it. Shifts are happening very very fast.
The official text of the
#China
-hosted
#Iran
&
#SaudiArabia
deal says that they agreed on a ROADMAP to re-opening Embassies, with the next follow-up meeting at Foreign Minister level in two months.
Slow down a little bit.
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The fact is: Regardless of who did it, the UAE, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi have all collectively said "Enough, it stops here". There are a few reasons for this (not least stopping Iran taking advantage), but we're in a different regional environment now, understand it and adjust.
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People have all sorts of views about MbS...but give credit where it's due, the situation for women in Saudi has changed dramatically in five years. For anyone who experienced Saudi in the 80s it is nothing short of astonishing how much has changed.
On the International Women’s Day, here are some of the most prominent achievements for women under the reign of Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman.
#internationalwomensday2021

#IWD2021

#WomensHistoryMonth

#shoutout

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Agreed 100%
If you're stuck focusing on attribution for Al Ahli this morning you're getting left behind. Regional politics are moving way faster than events on the ground. Perceptions of regional states, both of US and Israeli intent are more important than facts at this point.
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Six and a half years after it was written, this is still hands down the best piece on Sulaimani, I make a point of rereading it at least once a year: The Shadow Commander
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A real estate dispute, is that what you call it? I lived next to Sheikh Jarrah for two years and saw how settlers forcibly took over houses with 80 year old Palestinians being evicted with the aid of the border police
That’s not a dispute, that’s state backed social engineering.
Regrettably, the PA and Palestinian terror groups are presenting a real-estate dispute between private parties, as a nationalistic cause, in order to incite violence in Jerusalem (1/2)
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Going to repeat this as the situation has moved more in the past 16 hours than in the previous week.
The plates have shifted, radically. The window for Israeli operations has shrunk from more than a month, to a few days...if at all.
That is now the reality of where we stand.
Agreed 100%
If you're stuck focusing on attribution for Al Ahli this morning you're getting left behind. Regional politics are moving way faster than events on the ground. Perceptions of regional states, both of US and Israeli intent are more important than facts at this point.
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3) It gives space for the protestors themselves to work out how best to deal with the situation WITHOUT having to police it. This way you're not forcing protestors into a situation where they feel compelled to act.
Personally I'd say the Met have done a great job here.
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Two very different interpretations of the same meeting.
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This is the USS Cole which was hit in Aden in 2000. By Al Qaeda...it's an iconic photo that anyone who has even studied the region for five minutes would immediately recognise.
I do wonder why people tweet this stuff up thinking that no one would notice.
Cargo ships en route to the israeli regime, owned by israelis, or just passing via the Red Sea, are being ‘roasted’ by Yemenis |
@inesal99
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In 2005 as a third year BA Classics student I walked past this sign and dreamed of one day working there.
In 2010 I started
In 2020 I stopped
Dream achieved. Thank you
@RUSI_org
for being the place I could build my career, it's been an honour to represent you all these years.
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They've been well trained, and have been working with crowd psychologists to determine the right way to act, and how to avoid confrontation if at all possible.
This is a far cry from the Kettling days of 2010, and a good sign that Police all over the world can learn and improve.
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I see some of my fellow Conservatives moaning about having to wear a mask today under the new rules enforced today.
ITS A PANDEMIC...THIS IS NOT ABOUT YOU. Show some respect for others and stop whinging. Honestly you look, and sound ridiculous.
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You can set your watch by this stuff. Every time the US has a social issue, the regional autocrats whose prisons are jam packed with innocents crawl out the woodwork to make a statement feigning morality and outrage.
The racist and fascist approach that led to the death of George Floyd in the US city of Minneapolis as a result of torture has not only deeply saddened all of us, but it has also become one of the most painful manifestations of the unjust order we stand against across the world.
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Which psychologically makes the protestors the aggressors. This means it is the protestors who have to consciously choose whether to escalate or not. As you can see, many choose not to and urge others to back away.
2) It resets the power dynamic
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His career may soon be over...but no doubts here. The Israeli response will be enormous.
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I'm not a huge fan of Erdogan or his cash for friendship arrangement with Doha.
But the saltiness of the Saudi commentariat today is too good to ignore...At some point someone in Riyadh will need to sit and write a "Who lost Turkey?" book. Because they did lose Turkey.
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Another example. Note the pattern, 1) Police back away & create the gap 2) Reform the line 3) The protestors beg others not to escalate 4) Protestors choose not to close the gap, and a few resort to throwing plastic objects. 5) Confrontation avoided
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Can someone please explain to me how Argentina (defaults once a decade) , Egypt (propped up by foreign ODA), Iran (can't access global credit) and Ethiopia (deeply unstable, weakening currency, and currently in a civil war) are in any way fit to join the BRICS?
BREAKING: Iran and Saudi Arabia are among six nations invited to join the BRICS bloc of developing economies. United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia are also set to join the bloc of developing economies from 2024.
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I don’t really see why the Home Secretary thinks Palestinians should be any different. Being Palestinian is not a crime. Most Palestinians are not members of Hamas or PIJ, should anyone fly those flags then yes they should be in big trouble.
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On the really big questions of war and peace no they’re pretty rubbish. And that’s why the world of Thucydides and Morgenthau is back with a vengeance.
UN does a bunch of other stuff relatively well though.
I still can’t believe I’m still having to explain to people that neither the UN Security Council nor the UN General Assembly can or will do anything useful. There are no functioning international legal mechanisms. Everyone is on their own.
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Alan
Over 50% of Gaza is under 18. Which means many were not even alive when the vote happened and when Hamas forcibly took power.
The truth is no one knows how many people support them. Hamas would not allow open polling. So all we can do is guess.
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@loadedNYC718
Yes, I guess I tacitly alluded to that in the thread. I think the IDF have that shopping list. The question is more how do the politics evolve to be able to pick from that list.
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Can we all just take a second to salute
@LionelRichie
for how utterly brilliant he looked at the Coronation? This is a near flawless level of execution of Morning Dress.
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This in fact the last thing they are doing. They are clearly selecting an appropriate area to reform the line, which also creates space between themselves and the protestors. This does two things.
1) It makes the protestors have to chase them.
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Tips for MENA analysts outside Lebanon:
1) Dont go blaming X or Y country for what has just happened, simply because you happen to dislike them.
2) You don’t have a solution to Lebanon’s financial problems. No one does.
3) Predicting how this develops politically is guesswork.
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Akbar al Baker should apologise for this interview. People saying things like this are both irresponsible and dangerous. He even admits no scientific knowledge of the issue...my jaw hasn't yet picked up off the floor.
WATCH: Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al-Baker doubts the existence of
#coronavirus
that has already reached 126 countries and territories, infecting more than 132,000 people worldwide. Video posted by MBC reporter
@Awad_alfayadh
.
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Sadly Middle East Twitter is starting to feel like the US Presidential Election...people not even talking over each other. Just existing in separate echo chambers accessing completely different information spaces.
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This is 100% correct. PYD/YPG are not universally liked by Syrian Kurds, but virtually no Kurd would support the imposition of Turkish troops inside Syria. This includes KDP in Iraq...
Its important to recognize the YPG does not represent all Kurds. But if you dont also point out that almost every other Kurdish group in the region also opposes Turkey's operation youre doing Turkish propaganda.
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@Mr_John_Oxley
Precisely. Anyone crowing about how they managed in the 70s doesn’t understand the realities of the market today.
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For all those supportive of boycotting France right now...do ask yourself why you haven't been posting up
#boycottChina
as well, and then do please explain why this bothers you more than millions of Uighyurs being rounded up and stripped of their religious identity.
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There’s a guy at the house at the end of my road who always has one hanging out his window. Is it performative and slightly annoying? Yes, they’re definitely not Palestinians. But it’s not a Hamas flag, or a PIJ flag or the flag of a proscribed group.
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Four months of no gym and I now have the cardiovascular strength of an asthmatic snail that smokes 40 a day...hell on earth
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We should probably sit this one out...
SUEZ LATEST: British Government "stands ready" to help free ship and is in touch with relevant authorities 🚢🇬🇧
Boris Johnson's spokesman: "We are ready to provide any assistance that we can but have not been asked yet"
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Now if this poll is indicative (huge if and many things will change). Gantz could form a government with Lapid and Meretz and not even have to touch a right wing or religious party. A result which hasn't been seen the 90s.
Who out of the two, Benjamin Netanyahu or Beni Gantz is better suited to be Prime Minister of Israel?
Bibi: 28%
Gantz: 48%
Dont know: 23%
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Let me translate the entire statement for those of you who don't speak British.
"We'd rather you didn't release this plan, but it's not as hamfisted as we thought, so that's an A+ for effort. Both sides need to agree, and they won't, so nice try all and see you again soon."
"A peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians that leads to peaceful coexistence could unlock the potential of the entire region."
@DominicRaab
welcomes US proposals for Middle East peace:
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I don’t know much about Afghanistan tbh. But I know a ginormous policy failure when I see one. This is a disaster…there is no way around it. The US and by extension its allies have been utterly embarrassed.
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Faisal it’s a US base, the Qataris have no control over something like this.
The last thing we need is GCC spat stupidity overlapping with the mountains of hot takes that have emerged over the last 72 hours.
#Qatar
turned its back on
#GCC
brothers for
#Iran
, only to end up turning its back on Iran — typical
#DohaDuplicity
!
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Friends at Al Jazeera, I love you dearly.
But let's get this straight. AJ is 100% state controlled, and today more than any day I can think of is replete with examples of it.
الجزيرة الوثائقية تتمنى لكم يوما مشرقا وسعيدا
صورة تظهر حجم التطور العمراني والحضاري الذي تعرفه مدينة #الرياض عاصمة المملكة العربية السعودية
تصنف المدينة كثالث أكبر عاصمة عربية من حيث عدد السكان وتقع وسط شبه الجزيرة العربية على ارتفاع 600 متر فوق سطح البحر.
📸 Ibrahim muhamed
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Hotovely saying what we always knew she believed. Hardly a surprise.
If the Israelis don’t want two states then they better come up with an answer fairly quickly. Playing for time doesn’t work anymore.
BREAKING: Israeli ambassador
@TzipiHotovely
rejects the idea of a two-state solution
"The answer is absolutely no", she says.
📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube
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Hey Tories.
Time to end the Francophobia…their head of state has been nothing but decent and gracious to us the past ten days.
France is our ally and friend. There’s nothing else to say.
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I get why people are wanting desperately to find out the facts of this hospital explosion/strike. Many want the truth, and it's important to ascertain truth.
But people need to wake up. Trust is so damaged on both sides now that the truth doesn't matter. It won't be accepted.
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No idea why this tweet went viral...a note to all my new followers who joined the past day (there's rather a lot of you).
You're going to be disappointed, I'm a centre-right Tory, that complains about his party a lot. I also tend to tweet about men's fashion and Fulham FC.
I have worked on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for nearly twenty years.
Honestly I have no f'ing clue what's going on. What this means. Or where this heads. Literally anything is possible.
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For those more interested in learning about Liz Truss' view on the world. This piece by
@TomMcTague
is head and shoulders above anything else in terms of scope and analysis. It's foreign policy heavy...but she is the Foreign Secretary. Give it a look
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Honestly it's hard to put into words the sheer scale of incompetence and carelessness that has led to another enormous fire in Beirut. It's almost beyond comprehension.
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This is unbelievable...as are the pictures of Afghans falling off the plane as it takes off.
Forget Saigon, this is a whole new league of bad.
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Protestors if they choose to confront are faced by a wall of police with battons which is significantly stronger than them. This immediately makes them think twice, and those who do confront...actually stay back and stick to throwing plastic bottles. Hardly a serious threat.
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A very short new piece from me, with a few thoughts about the weekend's fun and games in Riaydh...BBC News - Saudi royal arrests: Why top princes have been silenced
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My mum just phoned me to tell me to wash my hands...parents will never stop caring no matter how old you get 😂
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That is not to say what happened at Al Ahli isn't incredibly important. And we should ascertain the truth.
But if this what you're stuck on today, then you're missing the shift. The region buckled overnight and what has been revealed is a regional consensus the constrains Israel
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One week to go! We’re nearly there. Keeping Wandsworth Blue for another four years.
#Torycanvas
@wandsworth
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Dubai needs to get a grip on its real estate market. These hyper boom and bust cycles are unattractive for long term investment and massively upend business planning. We've had several employees up their salary asks by as much as 40% to cover living costs.
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@antissa
@glcarlstrom
The reaction of the Lebanese political class has been staggeringly poor. Especially the Office of the President who seems more concerned with people criticising him than he does actually fixing the country. Corrupt War Lords don't easily change their spots.
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I wish I could say I’m shocked.
But what else should we expect from a country whose history of antisemitism, pogroms, and ritual blaming of Jews goes back centuries?
In 🇷🇺 Makhachkala, locals storm the airport after a plane from Tel-Aviv arrives. They check passports, looking for Israelis. The police don’t interfere.
#Israel
#IsraelPalestine
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When things happen in KSA everyone tries to come up with logical answers to what has happened.
Prime example “the King must be dying” There was no evidence to suggest it.
Occam’s razor folks, MbS goes after his rivals. That’s just what he does, we’ve had five years to learn.
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2010 called. It wants its tweet back.
#BREAKING
: Israeli IDF estimates that Iran will be able to assemble a nuclear bomb on a missile in "less then 2 years"; will have enought enriched material for a bomb in less then a year
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I dealt with this issue as an expert witness in court when local Turks complained about Kurds flying PKK flags (proscribed in the UK). The ruling was clear, Kurds (also not a state) could fly the flag of Kurdistan; but not the PKK flag, which was a clear offence.
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The US isn't interested in Syria, the US is interested in Syria...it's a 200 year old war between Turks and Kurds, not the US' problem. The Kurds have let ISIS out of jail, the Turks will get sanctioned, now US sending VP to the region to mediate.
WHAT IS THE US POLICY???
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I can't be the only one thinking this recent penchant for billionaires to go on joy rides up to space is just so poorly timed and frankly a bit crass, especially given how badly people have been faring the past year.
Maybe better to spend your money on other things?
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Good luck to them. Hegemony in the Middle East is like being the England football manager, sounds nice in principle, but in reality you're destined for failure and nasty media attacks.
What if China Replaced U.S. Hegemony in the Middle East?
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I really don't like hyperbole, but every word of Andrew's Tweet is true. You really cannot underestimate the size and scale of what has happened in the past 48 hours. It will cause irreparable damage to US power and prestige.
There will need to be a number of resignations.
American foreign policy will take years to recover from this shambles of an exit from Afghanistan, if it ever does. Blinken is a busted flush. Biden is missing in action during an historic crisis. Huge boon to China and Russia.
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A lot of empty desert above Iraq and Jordan for these drones to get shot down over…just sayin’
If the ballistic missiles don’t launch (and let’s hope they don’t) then this isn’t a true offensive move by the Iranians.
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There's got to be a way to get this lad to University. We'd be mad to let a guy like him slip through the net because of bureaucracy.
Arezki Yachir couldn't speak English when he arrived in Northern Ireland, but has just got two A*s and an A in his A-levels. He's frusrated that his staus as an asylum seeker means he can't go to university because he can't get a loan or grant.. Read more:
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UAE official says Turkish base in Qatar destabilises region
Ok there are a number of things to say about this statement from Dr Gargash, and I don't frankly think his points are very strong.
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I think I speak for everyone here when I say that with few exceptions, no one cares. Not even the Israelis or Palestinians.
Donald Trump is expected to disclose details of his long-delayed Middle East peace proposal to Israeli leaders
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It hasn't been hidden at all. There are plenty of books on the subject, you just need to read them.
This map has been hidden from you all your life. This is how they carved up Africa
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Two years of not going to the gulf = this classic mistake. “I’m hungry” I said. “No problem” they said.
Dear god…it’s the Burj Khalifa of Burgers.
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A reminder to UK followers today...there are big protests planned across the country.
You may not like them. You may not agree with them. But people are allowed to express how they feel, and you have the right to challenge them.
Free speech is hard, authoritarianism is easy.
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@jenanmoussa
@akhbar
You've done a great job reporting from the ground Jenan...found your video uploads really useful. Thank you.
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The Twitter lionisation of Jacinda Arden is perplexing to me. She does indeed seem a very decent human being. But is in charge of a country with a population half the size of London, Auckland international airport that carries just 12% of the passenger numbers of London.
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I think you should take this tweet down...really not funny, not clever, and counter-productive in every way imaginable.
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Think tankers/event planners of the world. Can we get rid of the term “fireside chat” as a way of jazzing up Zoom events please? There’s no fire, it’s not a chat it’s one person speaking at a time, the rest of us are sat in tracksuits listening in
Cool phrases don’t change this.
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Super pleased to be on board. Lots of important work to do in the months ahead. And great to be able to get a chance to look at US-UK relations at such a crucial time.
Many thanks to
@aaronstein1
and all the folks
@FPRI
The band is getting back together
@fpri
. Happy to announce
@mikerstephens
is now a senior fellow. He’ll be working on the Middle East and the “special relationship” and joining me for podcasts about both.
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I think this needs to be said (esp for those in the region who seem to think this is June 2017). The Qataris are in a position where they DON'T feel the need to compromise.
Saudi-Qatar talks to end lengthy Gulf dispute falter: sources
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I once considered Max a journalist worth following, exposing hypocrisy on all sides of the spectrum.
How far you have fallen. It's truly sad to see how your career turned out.
Iraqi neocon
@RashaAlAqeedi
constantly smears anti-imperialists while working for the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a pro-war think tank that reveled in the criminal American invasion of her country. Proud to have earned the wrath of opportunistic collaborators like these.
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Yet another awful story from Baghdad...MENA watchers and policy folks, do not take your eyes off this. The Government has treated its citizens with disdain, and meted out violence upon them.
'I just wanted to die': the torture of an Iraqi protester
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