Michael Kovrig
@MichaelKovrig
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Senior Adviser, Asia @CrisisGroup | China & Indo-Pacific hand. Ex-diplomat. Historical nihilist. Opinions my own. Don't start none, won't be none. 己所不欲,勿施於人
www.linkedin.com/in/kovrig
Joined November 2014
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A year has now passed since my return from China. I've appreciated every day of liberty. To understand what happened, read this
@KennedyCSIS
commentary:
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Governments must reinforce the basic international norm that responsible states don’t abduct each other’s citizens. My latest for
@POLITICOEurope
:
#arbitrarydetention
#hostagetaking
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Read this excellent feature by
@Justin_Ling
to understand how and why Beijing’s actions have driven China-Canada relations into a downward spiral, despite Canadian elites’ reluctance to get serious about responding:
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Can’t imagine how an infrastructure bank created by the CPC could possibly be heavily influenced by it…🤨
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A key tenet of Confucianism is benevolence. Find the humanity remaining in your shrivelled
#CPC
souls and just let her go home to her children.
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How
#geopolitics
caught up with
#Canada
: Canadians aren’t used to thinking geopolitically, I told
@Dimi
, but that’s going to be essential for the country to protect itself, maintain influence, and prosper in an increasingly complex and hostile world. Canada’s urgent challenge is
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How liars create the ‘illusion of truth’ - BBC Future
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China has raided seven American businesses in Beijing and arrested employees on suspicion of espionage, US ambassador Nicholas Burns reveals
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@David_Mulroney
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
- Upton Sinclair
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Nails it: "There are plenty of people who will say moves like the new executive order 'escalate' conflict with Beijing. I’d argue they merely draw attention to uncomfortable truths that have in fact always been there in plain sight. For years, the west thought security and market
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"Beijing is looking for a closer relationship with Ottawa"
@CanadianPress
reports, and asks: "Should
#Canada
play ball?" Not if it involves making concessions or compromising values or national interests. Maybe start by asking
#China
to stop engaging in disinformation, slander
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Memo to 🇨🇦Canada's Foreign Interference Commissioner: 🇨🇳China's diplomats just called you a liar. That's their special way of congratulating you for your new report and months of investigations 😉
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Some recommended light reading for your weekend:
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“Wherever the readers are, wherever the viewers are, that is where propaganda reports must extend their tentacles.” — Xi Jinping
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Rep. Jim Banks' comment--"China is trying to cheat its way to global dominance, and we can't let it happen"--succinctly sums up the view of China hawks, which is becoming increasingly prevalent.
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#Russia
wrongfully detained
@evangershkovich
a year ago this week. The
@WSJ
correspondent is now a state hostage. The Journal’s Friday front page is a stark reminder.
#Russia
should release him immediately and unconditionally. More on arbitrary detention in this thread 🧵1/21
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Essential reading on
#Russia
's invasion of
#Ukraine
from my
@CrisisGroup
colleagues:
#RussiaUkraineConflict
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The latest edition of
@CrisisGroup
's Crisiswatch is out! Here's my bookmark, filtering for November coverage of East Asia, including China, Japan, Taiwan, and the South China Sea:
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Read this on state hostage-taking. We’ve got to move past the false dichotomy of concessions vs. deterrence. Solutions require doing both in a way that brings detainees home ASAP, minimizes concessions and maximizes leverage and deterrence. As the report’s authors argue,
The latest from me and my co-author Stephanie Foggett on the Iran Hostage Deal and how to deter state hostage-taking
#HostageDiplomacy
#Iran
@TheSoufanGroup
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@noahbarkin
Compulsive gamblers: "For us, de-risking doesn't mean reducing our gambling, it means betting the farm."
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Wise decision:
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@nktpnd
I was also an invited Xiangshan panellist in 2018 less than two months before I was taken hostage. Draw your own conclusions.
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The security organs grow more powerful, the vise of control tightens, the taboos that preserve decent behaviour erode, the paranoia deepens, and the great wall of silence and isolation rises ever higher....
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The PRC government claims
#China
’s 2023’s GDP growth rate was 5.2%. 😵💫 Now they’re just making stuff up. I doubt the real number was even half that. To understand why, read Rhodium Group’s: “Through the Looking Glass: China’s 2023 GDP and the Year Ahead”
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Much respect to Bill Richardson for his tireless efforts to free hostages:
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This week's Beijing Xiangshan Forum on security attracted many African military delegations in yet another sign of deepening China-Africa defence ties. I explain the trend in a new
@CrisisGroup
&
@ChinaFile
commentary:
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China doesn’t want war, violent regime change, or nukes in Iran, and needs secure energy supplies, so it's trying to preserve the nuclear deal after a US pullout, my
@CrisisGroup
colleague
@AliVaez
and I explain in this
@ChinaFile
conversation
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Czechs want EU to shop abroad for Ukraine shells
The EU’s promise to supply ammunition is falling short, so Prague says it’s time to look beyond the bloc for shells.
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Only the French could make illicit ship-to-ship transfers sound so romantic and naughty...
#NorthKorea
#SLD18
😏
.
@florence_parly
notes potential
#NorthKorea
embargo breaches. Says North Korean tankers have ‘nightly rendezvous with tankers of unknown origins’.
#SLD18
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🇭🇰Hong Kong national security police arrested EU citizen Joseph John "after he returned to take care of his mother, who was suffering from dementia." So who's taking care of his mother now? Soulless...
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Col. General Kim Hyong Ryong, Vice-Minister of the DPRK People’s Armed Forces, just gave a rare speech to the Beijing Xiangshan Forum, said
#NorthKorea
determined to turn
#KoreanPeninsula
into a “cradle of peace and prosperity”.
@Dest_Pyongyang
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It was a gloomy pleasure to moderate the discussion with you at
#SCF27
,
@DSORennie
. I think you may have won our PRC pessimism contest. The price of seeking truth from facts. When it comes to Beijing these days...
I've been going to the Stockholm China Forum, a gathering of US, EU & Chinese officials/scholars, since 2008. The latest,
#SCF27
, was v gloomy: China can't count on Western naivety any more. China may not care, tho, if credulity is replaced with defeatism
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Unfair for China to spend 2+ years mocking the west for high Covid deaths, then to suppress all mortality data when it abandoned its approach
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Nothing says “I could remodel that artificial island for you” quite like a couple of B-1 bombers…
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So
#China
wired up the headquarters it built for the
#AfricanUnion
for eavesdropping and
#cyberespionage
. I’m shocked, shocked.... Expect a similar approach with
#Beltand
Road
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Recommend reading this assessment of Tsai Ing-wen's stop in the US last week and Beijing's aggressive response by my
@CrisisGroup
colleague
@amanda_hsiao
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#China
is UN
#SecurityCouncil
president for November and plans debate on enhancing African capacities, meetings on Burundi, CAR, Sahel, Sudan and South Sudan. Why is China’s role in African security growing so rapidly? Read my new
@CrisisGroup
commentary:
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Gives new meaning to the concepts of non-traditional security concerns and non-state actors... 🙈🙉🙊
Biggest news to come out of Thailand since #สุขุมวิท11: The city of Lopburi is experiencing unprecedented violence between two monkey gangs, authorities have been mobilised to quell chaos and are currently attempting to relocate the primates.
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@CollinBeck
Could you explain how you see a connection between coverage of
#Taiwan
’s elections in 2024 and Res. 2758? That resolution only replaced the
#ROC
with the
#PRC
in the “China” seat at UN organizations. It said nothing about Taiwan’s governance, international status, or whether or
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To stop illegitimate forms of bullying and coercion, we need collective action, mutual support and technical expertise in trade, economics and more. This
@StateDept
team is setting a great example that others should follow:
An eight-person State Department team has begun advising the Philippines on how to counter Chinese economic coercion
The team has worked with around a dozen nations since it began helping Lithuania during its 2021 dispute with Beijing
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Rep. Gallagher's point about the power of humour in opposing an authoritarian state is particularly apt and potent
Tomorrow, for the low price of $40,000, American business leaders will have the chance to dine with Xi Jinping, courtesy of
@USChinaBusiness
in San Francisco.
“$40,000 may buy you a meal with Xi, but it can’t buy you a conscience.” — Chairman
@RepGallagher
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The
#GlobalSouth
isn't a cohesive geopolitical bloc, argues
@CrisisGroup
CEO
@EroComfort
in a new essay. My takeaways: don't treat the Global South like a coalition, or assume a few big countries lead it or speak for all. Instead look for opportunities to consult and work with
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Eloquent commentary from
@DrRadchenko
on the tragic death of
#Navalny
. But let’s not succumb to fatalism. A different Russia is possible. Geopolitics and tyranny are powerful but they are not destiny. As we mourn Alexey Navalny and bear witness to his martyrdom, let’s hold fast
Some thoughts on Navalny's death. . The key point is this. Yes, Putin killed Navalny. But it's *not* Putin alone. It's the ugly subservience of the silent majority. No one but the Russians themselves are responsible for this sad state of affairs.
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Iran-Israel “Shadow War” Risks Spinning Out of Control | Crisis Group
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True story: I was fed🍕with🍍on it for Christmas dinner 2019 in Beijing. Gratuitous cruelty...
Canada's *really* urgent challenge is taking
#pineapple
off
#pizza
.
You cannot survive an era of geopolitical contest with 🍍 atop 🍕. That's Realpolitik 101.
Good piece
@MichaelKovrig
@Dimi
.
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Why is the Communist Party changing China’s constitution to remove term limits for the president and vice-president? Thread of a few likely reasons:
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China’s new espionage law tightens state control over a wider swath of data and digital activities, raising concerns among foreign companies
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For a new deep dive on the topic: “How the People’s Republic of China Seeks to Reshape the Global Information Environment:
GLOBAL ENGAGEMENT CENTER SPECIAL REPORT”
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10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024: More leaders are pursuing their ends militarily. More believe they can get away with it. How can we stop things from falling apart? via
@crisisgroup
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Recommended reading on the complexities of ending Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine:
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Set him free.
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@niubi
I’ve been saying this for years: Xi Jinping is a Communist. He means it, in terms of a Marxian dialectical analysis of the world and a Leninist approach to governance, which includes rule by fear and harnessing all aspects of the economy in the service of state power
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BMW CEO opposes 🇪🇺EU investigation into Chinese electric car subsidies. Looks like
#China
has another hostage...
#elitecapture
#weaponizedinterdependence
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If
#China
attacked
#Taiwan
and Western allies imposed economic sanctions, how well would Beijing cope? A new
@rhodium_group
report, Retaliation and Resilience, says China's improving its economic resilience, but it and everyone else would still pay hefty costs
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#Australia
has launched a new defence strategy, responding to
#China
's rapid military buildup and use of coercion in the
#IndoPacific
. Spending to rise to 2.4% of GDP over next decade
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Busy day for China's president: "习近平 [Xi Jinping]..." "习近平..." "习近平..." "习近平..." "习近平..." "习近平..." "习近平..." "习近平..."😳👇🏻
People’s Daily front page today...something to behold on a Monday morning
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Xi Jinping chaired a rare Communist Party Central Work Conference on Foreign Affairs over the weekend. The last one was in 2014. Chinese state media coverage touted it as reaffirming the middle kingdom’s centrality in world affairs. (THREAD)
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Amazing that China can host such a large event with hardly any leaks until the official announcement
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#Canada
's just-released 2024 defence policy update focuses on the Arctic, navy, equipment, recruitment, and cyber security. It's projected to raise spending by C$8 billion to 1.76% of GDP in five years, still shy of NATO's 2% benchmark. Heading in the right direction, but not
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Thanks to
@stephenWalt
@foreignpolicy
who says “In a world where conflict and hardship continue, I give thanks for the thousands of people who get up every day to ease burdens, relieve suffering, bridge divides, and transcend divisions. I’m talking about groups like Medecins san
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Xi has replaced 70 of the 100 most senior PLA positions
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Nobody who does any kind of research can feel safe in China any more
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New congressional research report: China’s Role in Wildlife Trafficking and the Chinese Government’s Response. China is the world’s largest market for trafficked wildlife products
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Good to see the US and China agreeing to resume high-level military dialogues. For a deep dive on what's at stake, read
@CrisisGroup
's new report, Preventing War in the Taiwan Strait
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New report from
@ASPI_org
: "The role of foreign influencers in China’s propaganda system" (aka "useful idiots")
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@aimeenancygrace
Those are false and libellous allegations. Where's your proof that I did anything wrong?
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The Marines are back in Guadalcanal, the storied WWII battle site, raising the flag on a trip to restore U.S. influence in the face of a rising China.
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Xi meets with
#NorthKorea
FM in Beijing, says their consensus has been implemented, looks forward to 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations next year (likely to include a Xi visit to Pyongyang to commemorate them)
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#China
's expanding its footprint rapidly in
#Antigua
, setting up a special economic zone, part of a
#Caribbean
expansion that concerns the U.S. military. This story adds important context for understanding Beijing's similar aims in the
#PacificIslands
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Taiwan aims to build global platform to counter disinformation
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#DRPK
leader Kim Jong-un now says he no longer supports reunifying the two
#Koreas
. The long-term implications for stability on the Korean peninsula are troubling.
@CrisisGroup
analyst
@Dest_Pyongyang
explains
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@VinaNadjibulla
@BonnieGlaser
Great podcast! For background on China's relations with Central Asia, check out:
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Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: Russia’s New Vision for Taking on the West via
@crisisgroup
- recommended reading on
#russia
,
#eurasia
and
#geopolitics
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US and Japan plan biggest upgrade to security pact in over 60 years: the proposal to restructure the US military command in Japan seems intended to facilitate operations and exercises, and reduce response time and tighten coordination in a conflict scenario
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New briefing from
@CrisisGroup
| Scam Centres and Ceasefires: China-Myanmar Ties Since the Coup 🧵1/4
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Read this powerful, deeply moving story by
@emilyrauhala
about growing old alone in China. Aging demographics and lack of elder care make the problem particularly acute in China, but it's a global issue that needs more attention
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But it's a narrow view of purely economic globalisation, while building walls to restrict ideas and freedoms, and the rhetoric masks a high degree of protectionism and flagrant disregard for intellectual property rights and the spirit of free trade and reciprocity
#SLD18
‘In a reversal of roles with the US, it is Chinese President Xi Jinping who champions globalisation.’ -
@Ng_Eng_Hen
,
#SLD18
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“China drew its sword, and with the same strength and to the same scale, counterattacked quickly, fiercely and with determination”... take it easy with the martial metaphors, People’s Daily
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Detailed analysis here:
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