I will soon be starting a new academic project: a history of the war between Russia and Ukraine. I am to have the book published by 2032 (10th anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion).

Il problema europeo degli investimenti va analizzato all’interno di un contesto globale dominato dalla strategia economica di Cina e Stati Uniti. Ecco come e perché nell’analisi di @FardellaEnrico e @michaelxpettis https://t.co/7iY3MkOqIk

But: 1) Why didn't Trump do it months ago? 2) Why does he think that these sanctions in isolation will do the job? (They won't) 3) Why are we so certain that he won't flip tomorrow and pause these sanctions for some new ephemeral Putin promise? (Of course he will).

Combined with measures to restrict the movement of Russia's shadow fleet (this is where Europe could play a key role), and the provision of long-range missiles to Kyiv to take out more of Russian capacity, this could shift Putin's calculus. No doubt about it.

Do I think this will necessarily force Putin to come to terms? No. It won't in the short term. Or even in the medium term. It will probably deepen Russia's reliance on China.

In short, I am very cautiously optimistic, but only very cautiously. Our experience since Dec. 2022 has shown that this is a very difficult game to play and the Russians have been quite good at hiding origin, or selling to buyers who don't care about US sanctions, resulting in

The phrasing in the Treasury announcement is a little fuzzy re secondary sanctions - "may risk the imposition of secondary sanctions on participating foreign financial institutions" ( https://t.co/9GkF4ckSvI). Enforcement is key of course.

So far, this is the most interesting / compelling article on the Rosneft/Lukoil sanctions: https://t.co/ieaV9ihwki. Key issues to look out for: 1) Will India continue buying Russian oil through intermediaries? 2) Will Indian majors, in particular Reliance, really stop refining

An excellent piece here by ⁦@AlexGabuev⁩ who argued that Europeans need to talk to their adversaries.

Let’s get some action! Anyone wondering why I am not responding to emails: that’s why.

And btw he does claim at the end that Ronald Reagan and Maggie Thatcher won the Cold War, which those of us Cold War historians will squirm at. Love it or leave it. Funny enough, he says we are in the Reagan territory now with NATO's response, to which my reaction is: 🤨

Emmm.... Potentially nuclear-armed (or even conventionally-armed) enemy aircraft or drones crossing into your airspace is not a direct threat? What is a direct threat, then?

The craziest thing that Rutte says is actually at the beginning of the interview, where he argues that there is no need to shoot down the intruding Russian aircraft / drones unless they pose a direct threat.

If you are going to listen to anything today, listen to this interview. It's really worth your time. Shashank is absolutely brilliant at this stuff. Mark Rutte is evasive in places but he does say a lot here that is of interest to those of us following the strategic debate.

All of this is an astonishing result for a pathetic, broken country like Russia but we are where we are. And if you are Ukraine and Europe, it's not a good place to be.

The Europeans have priced themselves out of this conversation, and are unfortunately now paying the price. There is nothing they won't do to keep up the myth of trans-Atlantic solidarity.

... where their own strategic interests may well be sacrificed by their mighty ally in pursuit of a peace that will likely leave Ukraine truncated and exposed but also divide and humiliate Europe.

But note how we have not had another emergency European summit in Washington - a sign, in my mind, that the Europeans have been outplayed. Now they'll just play the role of nervous extras in a show unfolding right here in the heart of Europe.

Kyiv is in a bind here. If Trump concludes that a Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas is the only thing that is blocking an ever-lasting piece a la Gaza, he'll lean on Zelensky to do it, and Zelensky will have few options. He'll plead with the Europeans of course.

I wonder if Trump and Putin already reached an agreement on this point in their phone call on Oct. 16, and Trump promised Putin to arm-twist Zelensky. I would think this is a definite possibility.

Well, this here is certainly worth reading this morning: https://t.co/EoiqzvLYf9. The biggest takeaway is that Witkoff leaned on Zelensky during the meeting with Trump to surrender Donbas to the Russians (because they speak Russian in Donbas, according to Witkoff).