Lawrence Freedman
@LawDavF
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Emeritus Professor of War Studies King's College London. just published Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine (UK Penguin, US OUP)
Joined May 2013
It’s time to speak up for tactics. Being ‘tactical’ is often disparaged and considered a lesser activity than being strategic. Yet good strategy requires good tactics.
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Just signed off 'yours faithfully' on a formal email to unnamed person because I was taught at school to do that and leave 'yours sincerely' for known person. Does this simply show how old I am?.
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Very proud of my former PhD student, Kenyan Ambassador Martin Kimani, making this eloquent statement to Security Council.
If you're gonna listen to any speech about #Ukraine 🇺🇦, let it be this one. The Kenya ambassador to the UNSC perfectly explains how people across Africa understand Ukraine, and what the Kremlin's acts of aggression mean in our post-colonial world.
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My analysis of why Putin may fail. I'll try to update this over coming days. A Reckless Gamble
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Still don't understand why we in the UK are not supposed to be frightened of 'no deal' at the same time as this very same 'no deal' is supposed to scare the EU into major concessions.
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Understand the fixation with the nuclear issue but it would be helpful if Western policy community also spent time thinking about a more likely end game in which Russia continues to cede ground without going nuclear.
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While Ukrainians are fighting, resisting, and dying for their country, I am disturbed at posts prematurely conceding victory to Putin, even from people who deeply oppose Russian actions. Wars have many stages and events unfold in unexpected ways.
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As Official Historian of Falklands can i note that Europeans showed solidarity with UK from the start (with sanctions etc) while US was reluctant to break with Argentina.
"I wonder if we had a conflict again with Argentina . if we chose to take a different position with a country like Iran, we wouldn't be able to do these things because we are committed in a treaty adhering to European Union foreign policy"
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Given allegations about early UK response to Covid-19 I’ve been looking at minutes of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (NERVTAG). This to the main Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE). The minutes can be found here
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In March the Russians decided to abandon efforts to take Kyiv to concentrate on taking the Donbas. They are now abandoning Kharkiv to protect what they have in the Donbas (which is still not all of it). 1/2.
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Other than that it is a completely different sort of war, that the Russians have been responsible for every escalation, and the US is not actually doing any fighting almost a perfect fit.
The echoes of Vietnam in U.S. policy toward Ukraine today are a lot stronger than is commonly admitted. It's far from an exact analogy. But there's more to take heed of than the complete dismissal of the relevance of Vietnam suggests. 1/.
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This is the fourth of my posts on the war. Does Russia face defeat? Space and Time
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Since writing this the fall of Kupyansk and Izyum has been confirmed. Quite atsonishing. 'Gradually, then Suddenly'
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I’m trying to follow events in Kursk closely but to be honest I’ve got a limited view of what is going on and no idea how it will end.
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A lot of US commentary on Russo-Ukrainian war assumes it is US responsibility to define terms for a settlement. This is reflected in discussions about the concessions Ukraine meeds to make and now whether the overthrow of Putin should be a war aim. 1/.
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My third post on the course of Putin's misconceived and brutal war. What is his Plan C?
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We really have got to get over the idea that there is some special role for the UK upon which the international system depends. If we haven’t found it by now - after searching for some 60 years - then it probably doesn’t exist.
"Britain’s post-Brexit role should be to act as an invisible chain linking together the democracies of the world, those countries which share our values and support our belief in free trade, the rule of law and open societies.". @Jeremy_Hunt spoke at @IISS_org in Singapore.
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Extraordinary headline suggesting Russia’s demand to hold on to occupied Ukrainian territory and Ukrainian’s desire to get it back are equally ‘hard-line’.
Hard-Line Positions by Russia and Ukraine Dim Hope for Peace Talks
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My latest post on the importance of the coming battle. The Battle for Kherson and Why it Matters
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'Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake'. (Napoleon's most famous strategic advice).
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This is why Zelensky is a good leader. He knows that making claims about CW use that aren’t then substantiated could backfire. All for investigating any potential use but on what I’ve seen so far I think he is right to be cautious.
Zelensky has not confirmed the Azov Battalion's chemical weapons accusations in Mariupol and is still treating a Russian chemical attack as a hypothetical.
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In olden days Williamson would have just accepted responsibility and resigned. Hard to imagine but it used to be a thing that ministers did without waiting to be sacked.
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My latest post, desperately trying to keep up with the Kharkiv offensive.
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To the many reasons why any use of nuclear weapons would be dangerous, inhumane, and deeply irrational we can now add the thought that, given current Ukrainian advances, any use to influence battles would require Russia to strike what it claims to be its own territory.
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If the Ukrainians start taking significant chunks of Donetsk and Luhansk then this will be even more calamitous for Moscow. The whole rationale of the Special Military Operation was to protect the Russian position in these territories. 2/2.
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At some point it is going to occur to Moldova and Georgia that if the Russian army continues on its current self- destructive path some currently frozen conflicts might get unfrozen.
Confirmed: Russian units from the 4th Guards occupation base in Tskhinvali are leaving the region through the Roki tunnel and heading to fight in Ukraine. In addition to Russia's 58th Army units, volunteers from the so-called South Ossetia are reportedly also leaving for Ukraine.
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So much of this dangerous nonsense around at the moment. We should cherish being in a parliamentary democracy and not a plebiscitary. Thankful for a system that can hold governments accountable, expose false promises, sidestep demagogues, and adapt to changing circumstances.
Beware the tyranny of Parliament over the People! 650 people abrogate their elected responsibilities to the people, don’t like what they’re told & so work assiduously to deliver a result completely against the democratically-declared will of those they are elected to serve.
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Preliminary thoughts after yesterday's fighting. Whatever happens in the military campaign Putin will find a political victory elusive.
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I never thought I’d feel sorry for John Bolton and actually I’m not.
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A tweet from 24 February.
While Ukrainians are fighting, resisting, and dying for their country, I am disturbed at posts prematurely conceding victory to Putin, even from people who deeply oppose Russian actions. Wars have many stages and events unfold in unexpected ways.
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My jaw doesn't drop any more because it's never gets a chance to return to its natural position.
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Long post I'm afraid but I wanted to explore the question of potential Russian nuclear use carefully rather than simply asert or dismiss it as a possibility.
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This is for the future. Putin’s fate will depend on developments in Moscow that we can neither anticipate nor control. But the idea that after this war we can try and find some new way of working with Putin in power seems far-fetched. End/.
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The negotiations are between Ukraine and Russia, not US and Russia. The Russian objective was regime change in Ukraine. In these circumstances, and Russia’s brutal conduct of war, a Ukrainian demand for regime change in Moscow would not be unreasonable.2/.
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Can one of the Americans who told me how important it was for Europeans to get sanctioned for sticking to an international agreement that the US has just walked away from now explain why Trump is going all out to protect a company originally sanctioned for selling to Iran.
President Xi of China, and I, are working together to give massive Chinese phone company, ZTE, a way to get back into business, fast. Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done!.
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I'm as intrigued as everybody else about this explosion above the Kremlin, but noobody was hurt and if it is supposed to be pretext for escalation note that at least 21 people were killed by the Russian shelling of Kherson today.
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According to these numbers (but take care as only those confirmed) Ukrainians now have more tanks, armoured fighting vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles, and armoured personnel carriers than when the war began as those captured from Russia exceed those they have lost.
Attack On Europe: Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine - Oryx
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Obama tried a military surge in Afghanistan with time limits and it petered out. Trump wanted to leave and did deal with Taliban. Biden came to office pledged to leave. Through this period no evidence of any European interest in wanting to pick up where Americans left off.
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I am deeply saddened to report that my mentor and inspiration, Sir Michael Howard, died this morning just after reaching his 97th birthday. Here Hew Strachan and I discuss Michael and his enormous contribution to the study of war.
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I felt from the moment Trump got elected that the likely effect on US foreign policy made this the strongest geopolitical argument against Brexit. With his decisions increasingly impulsive and erratic, and the administration in meltdown, the argument has become even stronger.
One of the core assumptions underpinning the Brexiter case for leaving the EU was that the UK could realign itself with a prosperous, stable and militarily effective United States.
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Advice please. Today I start my 8th decade. Am I allowed to be grumpy and curmudgeonly yet or must I carry on being chirpy and cheerful?.
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To meet Russian leader for this long without own translator and US record is diplomatic malpractice, whatever they were talking about.
Trump got up in middle of G20 meal, moved near Putin and talked for 1 hour, per WaPo. Only Putin's translator there:
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Long post on state of war and possibility of Ukrainian victory.
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Of all Prigozhin’s criticisms of Shoigu, Gerasimov and by extension Putin this is the most significant because it goes to the heart of the rationale for the war.
Prigozhin released today a new interview going over the current state of affairs as well as looking back at the events preceding the start of the "SMO". In this first bit, he explains that the Donbas was plundered by Russians since 2014 and the 2022 war began for reasons very
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This is what many have feared as the next step of a desperate military. I don't know whether Russians think war crimes like this will 'soften up' Ukrainians in the ceasefire talks but if they do they will be mistaken.
Russian forces are shelling residential areas of #Kharkiv with Grad missiles. And they claim that they only target military infrastructure…#russianinvasion
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S**t just got real.
Wow. Now Prigozhin says that the council of Wagner commanders have decided to deal with the military leadership of Russia adding that he will destroy everyone who appears n his way. "I ask everyone to stay calm at home, do not go outside.".
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We may wish that they had known then what we know now but they didn’t. My main point is that where the evidence is available we should at least examine it before passing judgement on those who were grappling with this crisis in that faraway time, a few weeks ago. End.
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MY NEW YEAR PREDICTION FOR 2022.The bad stuff we are worrying about may not happen (precisely because we are worrying about it) while bad stuff we haven’t thought about will. Happy new year everyone.
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The idea that the Ukrainians are only fighting because NATO countries are urging them to do so is obvious nonsense. They have not invaded Ukraine. Russia invaded Ukraine. They have sought Western support and complained when it was not forthcoming. 4/.
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We spend a lot of time on what the Russians have got strategically wrong. This is excellent from Mick Ryan (@WarintheFuture) about what Ukraine has got right.
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Seems fair. I’ve bought them enough meals.
When you #EatOutToHelpOut today, do remember that Rishi isn't actually paying, your grandchildren are. .
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If this is the case best evidence yet that Ukrainian offensive making progress.
🤡Peskov: Putin is ready to negotiate with President of #Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy on how the "special operation" will be terminated and the observance not of conditions, but of Russia's interests.
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Looking forward to reaching 80 in seven years time and headlining at an academic conference and getting the audience to join in with a seminar paper first delivered in 1975,.
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The reason why many Europeans are not rushing to blame Iran for the tanker attacks is not because they believe that anybody else is likely to be responsible but because they don’t want to be associated with the American response.
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Doers seem to be growing evidence that the Russian push against Bakhmut has exhausted itself while the Ukrainian push against Kreminna has made progress.
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Today was my grandson's third birthday. My wife made him a big cake and the whole family got together on zoom to sing him happy birthday. The bad news was that I couldn't give him a hug. The good news was that we kept the cake.
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At the moment probably a good idea to let them believe this.
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But it is also unrealistic. Any peace settlement will deal with other matters. But it is also the case that Putin’s personal position is at stake here because he has made a massive blunder. 3/.
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Lawrence Freedman: ‘Autocracies tend to make catastrophic decisions. That’s the case with Putin’
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There will be times when US/NATO and Ukrainain interests are not identitical. That has already happened with Kyiv's pleas for non-fly zone. Some things they want we won't be able to give and there may well be differences of opinion should serious peace negotiations start. 1/.
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Thinking about my Dad. He joined RN in 1938 and served in Fleet Air Arm through the war (inc in Malta). After war insisted on using his rank (Lt Cdr) because, he told me, anti-Semites kept on saying Jews hadn't done any of the fighting.
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Nato has no choice but to support Ukraine. Our future security depends upon it | News | The Sunday Times
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Biden’s comments that Putin should not stay in power reflects a widespread view but it is not something he can influence except in two respects. The first is the question of war crimes. Biden has already described Putin as a war criminal, which implies removal from power.4/.
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There will be great relief in alliance capitals at result of Midterms. No immediate risk to Biden’s Ukraine policy and reduced risk of Trump returning.
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The idea that someone like Stan Sloan, one of the top experts on NATO, should be considered unacceptable by the US Government because he is critical of it's stance, is absurd and dangerous. Sad that @AtlantDK is going along with this.
@AtlanticCouncil @AtlantDK @ducoexperts @jteurope Cancel that! I've just received word from the Danish Atlantic Council that the US Embassy in Copenhagen, a cosponsor of the meeting, has vetoed my participation due to my critical evaluation of Trump's impact on transatlantic relations. Stunned and concerned about our country.
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This all comes together when we get to easing sanctions as part of a peace settlement. Here Western aims and concerns will become relevant. Do sanctions stay as long as Putin remains in power? Or is the priority just to get Russian withdrawal 5/.
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My take on the Ukrainian offensive. Ukraine digs in for a long winter campaign | Financial Times
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The World Health Organisation (WHO) had reported that there had been no new cases reported since 3 January. This illustrates the unfortunate role played by WHO at this time in passing on official Chinese complacency. 6/n.
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This article describes UK decision-making on Covid-19, covering the period up to full lockdown on 23 March. It is largely but not solely based on primary sources, including the documents on the SAGE web-site. 1/13.
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My new post on the course of the Russo-Ukraine War. The Fight for Ukraine
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But it is really silly to have anxious debates over whether Ukraine should be restrained in its war aims. It is engaged in tough and painful resistance against a brutal aggressor. It has not acted recklessly and is preparing its counter-offensives carefully. 2/.
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I have never seen so many impossible promises in such a short speech.
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For those who might be wondering about the outcome of the great ‘cod wars’ against Iceland that concluded in 1976, the UK lost.
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More thoughts on Putin as a terrible supreme commander. All the Tsar’s Men | Foreign Affairs
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This is not an exclusive. Its not leaked. The paper has been on Sage website for a while. Here it is in full.
EXCL: Channel 4 News has seen a leaked paper prepared for one of the scientific committees advising the government - which called in the starkest possible way for a lockdown - a full two weeks before the official announcement was made.
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Thread on UK nuclear weapons policy. Be patient. Quite long.
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Thus claims that the West is 'prepared to fight to the last Ukrainian' or is being used as 'a battering ram' by both sides, picking up on US references to 'proxy wars'. The basic problem with these claims is that they deny Ukrainians agency in their own war. 3/.
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It might be possible eventually for Ukraine to retake Crimea but thats not a current option. For the moment its focused on liberating Donbas. If it fails to do that the result will be continual instability in the region so it should be helped as much as possible to succeed.3/.
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I don't see how Johnson/Cummings gets round this:.'Essential travel does not include visits to second homes, camp sites, caravan parks or similar, whether for isolation purposes or holidays. '.
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I've long had a theory that if the government wants to keep a secret its best course is to publish the information in an official document because then you can be sure no one will read it. Information is far more interesting when it is leaked through a 'Whitehall source'. 1/n.
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While the focus is on the land war we need to look at the problems created by the blockade of Ukrainian ports. My latest post for Comment is Freed. Breaking the Black Sea Blockade
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The aggressive release of intelligence on Russian plans By Biden Administration has been one of the more significant strategic innovations of this crisis. 'U.S. Battles Putin by Disclosing His Next Possible Moves'
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UK police/security services have done good job v terrorism over the years. This attack shows scale of challenge, not that they have failed.
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One thing learned during my stint in senior management, no doubt helped by reading military history, was at times best to retreat. Amazing how much aggravation a quick 'sorry, got that wrong' could avoid. Colleagues worried showed weakness - but sometimes your posiiton is weak.
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This is the most sophisticated and informed analysis you’ll see of why we should be worried about a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. It might be right yet the political objectives still appear murky and elusive.
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Another worry for Moscow - possibility of political change in Iran, its supplier of drones and partner in Syria.
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In refuting Ukr claim of 14,700 military personnel killed, Russian MoD acknowledges what is still huge loss: 'during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.' via @onlinekpru.
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But he does not suggest for a second that if NATO stopped assisting that all would be well with Ukraine and its people would stop dying and suffering. For Zelensky this is an argument for more support from NATO and not less. 8/.
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There are two political leaders culpable for this invasion- Lukashenko of Belarus as well as Putin. Any package of sanctions must include Belarus.
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The UK has ordered 60 m doses of the Novavax vaccine. The European Commission has recently concluded 'exploratory talks' with Novavax.
Breaking: Novavax Covid vaccine shows 89% efficacy in UK trials. Half the cases on the trial were the new ‘Kent’variant so this is first vaccine to show it is effective against the new more contagious variant.
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@maxseddon @GerardAraud Before these revelations I didn’t think Zelensky could sell a deal that left any Ukrainian territory in Russian hands - or would try. That is now beyond doubt.
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The prospect of a trade war with US changes the context of Brexit negotiations for both the UK and the EU. The EU needs UK’s added weight and the UK risks being even more exposed than already anticipated.
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