Jake Tribbey
@JakeTribbey
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NFL DFS, Best Ball, and Betting. Lead UFL Analyst and Staff Writer @FantasyPts . 2022 @FSWA Football Writer of the Year. Formerly: @PFF , @RotoGrinders
Cincinnati, OH
Joined March 2014
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My Week 5 UFL DFS article is free to read!
All the best stats, quotes, notes, and contrarian angles for the Week 5 slate, right here:
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my gf: "I thought college football was over???"
me: "babe, take a seat so I can tell you about the Lockheed Martin Rotisserie Chicken bowl"
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“How high will Dameon Pierce’s ADP get before the season starts?”
Dameon Pierce’s ADP:
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*Reporter asks Arthur Smith a reasonable question about player usage*
Arthur Smith: “Yea I don’t think Kyle Pitts should have a safe place to live or access to clean drinking water”
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The people who were drafting Michael Thomas and Saquon Barkley in May/June:
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The people who were drafting Dameon Pierce when his ADP was 70 spots lower:
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“You were touting Rashaad Penny in July. On August 6th you began tweeting about your ‘massive’ Kenny Gainwell exposure. Last night, you proclaimed D’Andre Swift as the ‘guaranteed Week 1 starter.’ Do you see how this looks?”
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Every fantasy analyst who uses “models”, “spreadsheets”, or “math” after Rashaad Penny scores 37.6 fantasy points in Week 1 on 18 carries and 1 target:
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My 12 favorite stats from my Week 2 DFS research:
1. Saquon Barkley has only been a favorite eight times in his career. In those eight games, he’s averaged a ridiculous 28.1 DraftKings FPG (RB1) and 24.2 Fanduel FPG (RB1).
The Giants are 2.0-point favorites in Week 2
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"Hey dude. Listen to me man, there's this fucking kid in Miami. De'Von Achane? His per-touch efficiency metrics are insane dude, totally off the rails. Uh yea, fuck it, let's play him in DFS."
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My 10 favorite stats from my Week 3 DFS research:
1. Terry McLaurin (0.41 fantasy points per route) was far more productive against zone coverage than Jahan Dotson (0.22) last season.
The Bills have run zone coverage on 77% of their defensive dropbacks this season.
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I hate to stir up drama
But the Big Dog Bash, run by
@nickercolano
and
@bdge__
, is the worst contest in fantasy football history in its current form.
Egregious rake, the risk of contest insolvency, and a potential tax nightmare, all investigated here:
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Everything you need to know about 2022 fantasy football WRs in 1 image:
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My 5 favorite stats from my Week 11 DFS research:
1a. Justin Fields is back this week.
He averages an absurd 28.4 FPG in games with a total of 45.0 or higher over the last two seasons (9 instances)...
The games total this week is 48.0
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Every day the fantasy community strays further from god’s light
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My 5 favorite stats from my Week 13 DFS research:
1a. Brandon Aiyuk (9.0 XFP/G) hasn't seen great usage since Week 9, but he's destroyed plus matchups...
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My 15 favorite stats from my Week 3 DFS research:
1. As an underdog, Tyreek Hill has averaged an insane 26.7 DraftKings FPG and 23.8 FanDuel FPG across his career (15 instances).
Hill has exceeded 40.0 DraftKings points in 27% of those games.
MIA is a 5.5-point underdog in W3
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Fantasy points per 4 quarters:
Anthony Richardson - 30.3
2019 Lamar Jackson - 27.7
(Current QB1) Justin Herbert - 23.9
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Which QBs have games of 25+ fantasy points the most often since 2019?
Lamar - 43% of games
Dak - 41%
Watson - 39%
Mahomes - 37%
Allen - 37%
Rodgers - 35%
Kyler - 35%
Herbert - 34%
Brady - 31%
Jameis - 24%
Russ - 24%
Hurts - 21%
Tannehill - 21%
Cousins - 17%
Jones - 16%
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WR/CB matchups don't matter nearly as much as you think for fantasy football.
In by far my favorite piece I've written this year, I explain why:
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Me talking to my friends dog: “you are so beautiful. You are the prettiest girl. The prettiest girl in pretty town”
Me texting my girlfriend: “Hey I’m watching college football all day can you get chips and gau?
Gauc*
Get me chips and guac please”
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Me in my mom’s living room after Dak Prescott goes over his passing prop:
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Actually insane. Guy was working behind Jeff Badet and Geronimo Allison in the XFL. He's total dust
Breaking news in the NFL: The Dallas Cowboys are signing newly-reinstated wide receiver Martavis Bryant to a contract, according to sources. Bryant, who last played for the Raiders in 2018, had 17 touchdowns and 2,183 receiving yards in 44 career games.
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My 8 favorite stats from my Week 5 DFS research:
1a. Tyreek Hill averages 13.3 DraftKings FPG (high of 21.9) against divisional opponents since joining Miami.
Outside of the division, Hill averages an absurd 28.9 DK FPG, scoring over 30.0 DraftKings points 50% of the time
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Me waiting for Kyle Pitts' talent to turn into fantasy points:
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@joshuajaehyun
@P_Lytics
I'd love to book action on the niners winning more than 6.5 games. Please DM
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My 10 favorite stats from my Week 1 DFS research:
1a. Tyreek Hill has played in 22 career games as an underdog.
He averages an absurd 26.0 DraftKings FPG in those contests, scoring over 40.0 DraftKings points four times (18% hit rate).
And his matchup is sneaky-great...
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The Christian McCaffrey 1.01 thread...
Everything you need to know about taking CMC 1st overall, and why he's a better pick than Jonathan Taylor.
Let's get started ⬇️
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Roger Goodell after he suspended an inactive player for all of 2022 for betting $200 on a jags, colts, NYG, GB, Bucs parlay in week 14 to pay $8,856
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My 5 favorite stats from my Week 9 DFS research:
It's a great slate to get weird!
1a. Jordan Love averages 21.1 DraftKings FPG in his four games this year with a pressure rate of 20% or less. That ranks 3rd-best among slate-eligible QBs...
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My 5 favorite stats from my Week 1 DFS research:
1. In the 10 games Kyler Murray has played with a total over 52.0, he’s averaged an insane 28.2 DraftKings FPG and 27.5 Fanduel FPG. His worst game in that sample was a 20.3 fantasy point performance.
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PFF never gave me an opportunity to write while I worked as an intern and data charter. I asked over and over, but no luck.
Applied to 15 other writing positions before
@RotoGrinders
gave me a shot
Fast forward 3 years and I’m the Football Writer of the Year.
Don’t give up!
I left active duty in February 2020 - had government contractor jobs lined up until the lockdown and they stopped hiring.
Reached out to
@JMToWin
and asked if I could write a Game Theory piece for free for the peeps
@oneweekseason
.
Would not be here today without that!
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36 QBs have attempted more than 25 passes this year.
Here are the best (and worst) QBs in their % of throws deemed 'highly accurate' by
@FantasyPtsData
:
1. Tua - 63%
1. Josh Allen - 63%
3. T-Law - 58%
11. Fields - 52%
30. Carr - 43%
36. Ridder - 38%
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Kyle Pitts only exists so fantasy analysts can type
"He ranks 1st in air yard%, 1st in target share, 1st in TPRR, 1st in YPRR, and 1st in my TE talent model.
But he also ranks 1st in targets deemed "fucking terrible" by
@FantasyPtsData
and he's the leading cause of divorce…
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What RBs are playing from WR alignments the most?
1. JD McKissic - 29% WR alignment rate
2. Aaron Jones - 27%
3. Devin Singletary - 24%
4. CEH - 23%
5. Nyheim Hines - 23%
6. Chase Edmonds - 23%
7. Najee Harris - 20%
8. Kenyan Drake - 20%
9. James Robinson - 20%
10. Kamara - 19%
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One of the easiest ways to spot Week 1 DFS values?
Compare player pricing to ADP.
These are the best WR values on DraftKings relative to their ADP among slate-eligible WRs:
- Elijah 🍆
- 49ers WRs 🍆
- Rookie WRs are probably worth ignoring; better in 2nd-half of the season
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Akers and Mattison battling to see who can average 3.6 YPC instead of 3.4 YPC
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Saquon Barkley has played 40 full games in his Giants' career and averaged:
- 25.8 FPG in wins
- 17.6 FPG in losses
Based on those splits, and the Giants 7.0 implied win total from
@DKSportsbook
, we can estimate Barkley for 21.0 FPG in '22. That's RB4 or better in last 3 szns
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I see it's the first day of gambling school for like half of best ball twitter
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My 5 favorite stats from my Week 6 DFS research:
1a. Brandon Aiyuk has captured a 35% first-read target share over the last two weeks.
That’s 27% better than the next-closest 49er, and the 9th-highest mark of any player with multiple games played over that stretch.
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Terrace Marshall through 2 preseason games:
- 25 of 28 first-team snaps
- 6 receptions for 138 yards
- 75 yards after the catch
- 4.93 YPRR
- 116.7 passer rating when targeted
Very significant, especially on an offense that supported 3 top-25 fantasy WRs last year.
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ARE WE SURE WE SHOULD GIVE THIS GUY HALF A MILLION DOLLARS...
He really seems to hate being questioned
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My 15 favorite stats from my Week 4 DFS research:
1a. As a favorite, Jalen Hurts averages 26.7 FPG, compared to 23.2 as an underdog.
For perspective, 26.7 FPG would be the 3rd-greatest QB fantasy season ever. And that's Hurts' FPG average as a favorite.
PHI is -6.5 in W4
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My favorite stats from my Week 5 DFS research:
1. Justin Herbert averages an insane 29.3 FPG in his 17 career wins, compared to just 21.2 FPG in his 19 career losses.
29.3 FPG would be the greatest fantasy QB season of all time. LAC's implied win probability in W5 is 56%.
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I am still in shock. Three years ago I was desperate for anyone to read my work.
@jvculver88
and his team took a chance on me for my first writing gig.
@FantasyPts
,
@ScottBarrettDFB
, and the rest of the crew gave me the opportunity of a lifetime to write for their site...
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Atlanta fantasy starters:
QB: Cordarrelle Patterson (1 career pass attempt) 😤
RB1: Cordarrelle Patterson (5.1 career YPC) 🔥
RB2: C-Pat (452 yards after contact in 2021) 🍆
WR1: Cordarrelle Patterson (2.23 YPRR last year) 🚀
WR2: Patterson (7.3 YAC/REC in '21) ❗️
WR3: Cord
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The key to winning in the playoffs is RUNNING THE BALL and STOPPING THE RUN. Historically, Teams have a 75% chance of winning in the playoffs when they outrush their opponent. In last year’s Wild Card round, 5 of the 6 winners out rushed their opponent.
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It's finally here.
I desperately wanted to keep this behind the paywall. It's far too informative to be public.
It also might be the best article I've ever written.
Lucky for you guys, the Week 1 UFL DFS preview is 100% free to read:
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My favorite stats from my Week 6 DFS research:
Josh Allen has historically dominated high-total games, averaging an insane 31.3 DraftKings FPG and 30.1 Fanduel FPG in his 12 games since 2020 with a total over 52.0.
He's scored over 30.0 DK points in 58% of those games.
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The greatest throw I’ve ever seen irl and I don’t ever see that changing. Entire stadium was in shock
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Chig Okonkwo's ranks among TEs* this season:
1st in YPRR (2.63)
3rd in TPRR (0.27)
3rd in YAC per reception (8.0)
1st in yards after contact per reception (5.1)
2nd in missed tackled forced per rec (0.32)
3rd in yards per target over expectation (2.4)
*37 qualifiers
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Big news for UFL gamblers!
Neil Orfield (
@playerqDFS
) will join me as a co-host on the UFL breakdown - the premier UFL gambling/DFS show.
Neil has won a Milly Maker and is one of the best spring football DFS players ever.
Our first show will be March 29th, free on YouTube!
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Today is one of the more important days in American history...
The Fantasy Points Data Suite has a new look! ✨ July 17th can't come soon enough!
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My 14 favorite stats from my Week 7 DFS research:
1. Over the last 4 weeks among TEs, David Njoku has averaged 12.0 XFP/G (6th-best), 14.6 FPG (4th-best), 77.0 YPG (best), and 7.0 targets per game (5th-best).
He's the TE7 by DraftKings salary this week.
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Lamar Jackson this season:
- 2nd in PFF passing grade
- 3rd in accurate throw%
- 3rd in catchable throw%
- 3rd in YPA
- 5th in ANY/A
- 1st in Hero Throw%
AND
- 9.5 rushing FPG (8th-most all-time)
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My photoshop skills are bad but I had to get this message out there
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Ideal landing spots for Justin Fields:
1. Birmingham Stallions - Alex McGough 2.0?
2. DC Defenders - Obvious replacement for D'Eriq King as DC's QB2
3. Michigan Panthers - Could learn from EJ Perry (2 career starts), who has more 350+ yard passing games (1) as a pro QB
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Justin Field's last two games were the 21st- and 40th-best fantasy outings by a QB all-time (using DK scoring).
The best game of Josh Allen's career is the 56th-best QB fantasy performance of all time.
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The community massively overreacts to basically everything preseason. The edge is probably in holding prior convictions.
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I’ve collected every piece of information you need to be successful in Week 1 XFL DFS.
The best part? It’s totally free:
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Growing concern that Alexander Mattison is this generations Rachaad White
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For perspective, the entire New York Jets offense has 31 catchable targets this season.
Puka Nacua has seen 30 catchable targets, which is 9 (!!) more than Justin Jefferson (21)
Incredible role + Matthew Stafford is playing at an extremely high level
Here are the top-20 WRs by total catchable targets via
@FantasyPtsData
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My son turned 5 today
When I asked him what he wanted for his birthday, all he could mutter (through tears) was:
"Daddy, I just want the sim bros to stop ruining DFS"
Powerful stuff
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@fantasyfootbll3
“I’d love to see Kyle behind the counter at Wendy’s… that’s his true passion and I think it fits his skills and abilities quite well”
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Only 2 RBs earned 100% of their team's red zone snaps...
Christian McCaffrey and Rachaad White
Per the
@FantasyPtsData
bell cow report:
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My 6 favorite stats from my Week 2 DFS research:
1a. Tony Pollard earned 77% of the Cowboys' backfield usage (XFP) in Week 1.
If he did that last season, he would've averaged 18.6 XFP/G (RB3). And if he maintained his '22 efficiency, that would translate to 24.2 FPG...
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My favorite stats from my Week 15 DFS research:
The Eagles have posted a positive pass rate over expectation in 8 games.
All those games (except W9 vs. Houston) came against bottom-12 defenses in schedule-adjusted passing FPG allowed.
Hurts averages 28.3 FPG in those games
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My favorite stats from my Week 13 DFS research:
In Week 12, Cordarrelle Patterson hit his highest snap share (58%) since returning from IR, while also posting his best target share (21%) and best route share (54%) of the season.
He profiles as an elite GPP play with Pitts on IR
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Fantasy points per route vs. XFP per route
Everything you need to know about 2023 pass catchers for fantasy in one image:
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Bumped into Luis Perez at a Brazilian steak house in DC.
Epic XFL encounter
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“He isn’t unemployed, he’s a spring football gambling analyst!”
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My favorite stats from my Week 10 DFS research:
In Tyreek Hill's 19 career games with 12 or more targets, he averages an absurd 28.5 FPG – a mark that’s 10% better than the greatest fantasy receiving season of all-time (2021 Cooper Kupp).
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This is only scratching the surface, I have a ton more stats (just like these) available, for free, right here:
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In a QBs first 3 games, all-time...
Lamar Jackson has scored the most fantasy points ever (102.26)
Josh Allen has scored the 11th-most fantasy points ever (87.86)
And Jalen Hurts has scored the 15th-most fantasy points ever (85.34)
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With the XFL regular season now over, I wanted to give my sincerest thank you to everyone who read/watched my XFL content this season.
It was a ton of fun to work on, and the response really blew me away. I’m just so grateful!
Love you guys ❤️
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@nocontextcfb
Silverberry Mouhon had a brother who also played college football
His name was Kevin
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“I’m a credentialed USFL reporter. Well, I guess technically I’m a fantasy football writer, but for this game I’m a credentialed reporter. I’ve built up a decent Twitter following from USFL DFS. That stands for daily fantasy sports if you didn’t know… anyway I’m Jake”
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Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen double-digit targets in 8 straight games. His PPR scores:
39.4
35.4
26.1
26.0
24.8
23.5
20.4
15.3
FPG: 26.4
2021 Cooper Kupp: 25.9 FPG
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My favorite stats from my Week 8 DFS research:
Let's start with the DFS elephant in the room
Min-priced Sam Ehlinger
Ehlinger is the top QB value this week, but is it worth eating the chalk? Let's dive in ⬇️
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- Diontae Johnson will lead the NFL in targets
- Rondale Moore will lead all WRs in YAC
- And Terrace Marshall will outscore D.J. Moore???
My 2021 bold takes for the fantasy season:
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Since 2019, the combination of Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, and Travis Kelce have accounted for 44% of all 25+ point fantasy performances at the TE position.
Despite earning just 10% of total TE targets over that span.
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Exciting XFL content announcement:
@ChrisWechtFF
and I will host an XFL DFS live show, debuting this week at 2:30pm ET on Thursday.
We will cover top plays, contrarian DFS angles, potential bets, and everything in between!
The best part? The show will be 100% free to watch
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Most receiving yards on targets deemed 'open' or 'wide open' per
@FantasyPtsData
:
Tyreek - 974
Jefferson - 951
Waddle - 802
Adams - 748
Jeudy - 690 👀
AJB - 686
Kirk - 686
Amon-Ra - 605
Diggs - 598
CeeDee - 588
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Unbelievably grateful for the response to my spring football content.
It's not lost on me I'm one of the few people who gets to cover spring football for a living. It's a true honor and I can't thank you all enough for supporting my work.
Good luck today, everyone!
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I started hyping up CMC as the 1.01 in April
Was told I didn't know ball, didn't understand that he's injury prone, and that I was taking an unnecessary risk by diverting from consensus
CMC: 20.8 FPG (RB2), 8 games played
Taylor: 11.9 FPG (RB26), 6 games played
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Weighted opportunity, snap/route shares, and raw opportunities for Week 1 XFL RBs:
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