Josh Lee 🚫
@joshuajaehyun
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Founder, COO @P_Lytics | Head of Analytics @theundroppables | @UnendingRebuild Podcast
Washington, DC
Joined January 2013
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The Baltimore Ravens are projected to win the 2023-2024 AFC North Division, according to the
@P_lytics
model
This same model predicted the ‘21 and ‘22 Super Bowl winners
Here’s why the
#RavensFlock
will succeed this season and what it means for fantasy football 🔽
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In fantasy football, chase targets and opportunity not fantasy points.
Here are your top 24 target leaders by position which you can also use as a start/sit guide ⬇️
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I built an XGBoost Classification model to predict the probability that NFL WRs score fantasy points. The tier classes:
WR1: >= 250 PPR points
WR2: 200-250 PPR pts
WR3: 150-200 PPR pts
WR4: 100-150 PPR pts
WR5: < 100 PPR pts
Here's how I built it.
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I analyzed Best Ball Mania 3 data to learn how to win $3M in
#BBM4
.
Analysts discuss the importance of:
Stacking
ADP Value
Roster Construction
But the most important piece is often overlooked.
Here is the best way to win $3M in Best Ball Mania.
Happy Father's Day.
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My guys 2023.
WR Marvin Mims (DEN)
Texas HS state record holder with 117 rec, 2,629 rec yards, 32 TDs in only his SENIOR SZN
Broke out at 18 years old. Early-declare. Career EPA/Play of 1.0.
Only P5 WRs EPA/Play > 1.0:
CeeDee Lamb
Devonta Smith
Ja’Marr Chase
MARVIN MIMS
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If you like Garrett Wilson you’re going to love Jaxon Smith-Njigba
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I built an XGBoost model to predict the fantasy points per game (ppg) for NFL players in 2023. In this thread, you’ll learn:
1⃣ Most important variables by position
2⃣ Top 12 players by position
3⃣ How to use this to win $3M in Best Ball Mania 4
Here’s how I built it.
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The
@ClemsonFB
Tigers are projected to win the ACC, according to the
@P_Lytics
model
This same model is 70% accurate betting on the MLB this season
Here's why
#Clemson
will succeed this szn and prospects to keep an eye on for dynasty and
#devy
🔽
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@P_Lytics
Pete Carroll might be the most underrated coach in the NFL
Vegas had Pete’s Seahawks win total at 5.5 last year after the departure of Russell Wilson
Pete showed that Russ was not the key to their success and put up 9 wins w/ Geno Smith
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Huge thank you to
@ScottFish24
for the invite to
#SFB12
Ever since I learned about this league, I’ve wanted to be a part of this community. Scott, you’ve inspired me to begin planning a Capital One fantasy football charity event. Can’t wait for my first year in the league!
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You guys may have seen my NFL posts.
But this one is different…
Today I share with you the story of Chosen Blakey (
@P_Lytics
) ⬇️
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Two words. MIKE VRABEL
Mike Vrabel has a career HC record of 48-34 w/ two division champs in ‘20 and ‘21.
The Titans started ‘22 w/ a record of 7-3 despite Tannehill suffering a high ankle sprain in Week 6 against the Colts.
They sputtered at the end of the season on a 7-game…
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@Ravens
Cleveland Browns Projected Wins: 4.0
Projected Points For: 293.2 (32nd)
Projected Points Against: 427.06 (31st)
#DawgPound
Fantasy Notes:
Did you expect anything to change? Deshaun Watson (QB21) looked terrible last year, and those inconsistencies should continue
The only…
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The moment you've all been waiting for! The XGBoost Classification model outputs probabilities that a WR reaches each tier class. And the 2022 rookie WR with the best odds to reach WR1 status is... Chris Olave 🔥
@chrisolave_
I built an XGBoost Classification model to predict the probability that NFL WRs score fantasy points. The tier classes:
WR1: >= 250 PPR points
WR2: 200-250 PPR pts
WR3: 150-200 PPR pts
WR4: 100-150 PPR pts
WR5: < 100 PPR pts
Here's how I built it.
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@P_Lytics
In all seriousness, Lamar is the former league MVP and he’s been stuck in a run-first offense his entire career.
Enter Todd Monken. Monken runs a modern offense which will open up the pass game.
And many parallels exist between the ‘22 Georgia offense and the ‘23 Ravens.
vid…
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@P_Lytics
Zay Flowers ←→ Ladd McConkey
Zay Flowers will thrive in the slot and will have opportunities to play in space. My WR30
He’s a human joystick, ran a 4.42 40 at the NFL combine, and put up a 94th percentile college dominator score of 47% in the ACC
Watch him work 👀
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Got home from
@theffexpo
last night to the best birthday surprise ever
Huge s/o to the
@FFAdviceForum
for the signed
@_IsaiahMcKenzie
jersey
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I built an XGBoost Classification model to predict the probability NFL RBs score fantasy points. I took the RB model a step further than the WR model by identifying LEAGUE WINNERS 👑. The tiers:
RB1: >= 300 PPR pts 👑
RB2: 200-300
RB3: 100-200
RB4: <100
Here's how I built it.
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The Titans offense will run through 👑 King Derrick Henry, my RB6.
The 6’3 250lb 29-year old RB is built different and produced 1,538 rush yds and 13 rush TDs in 2022.
He also added a career-high 33 receptions and 398 receiving yards on 41 targets. Don't sleep 👀
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I built a "good at football" model to rank NFL players. I defined this as scoring at least 200 PPR fantasy points in a season. The dataset included players' age, position, draft pick, college production, past seasonal fantasy points, and # of games played.
Here's how I built it.
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@USFFootball
is projected to win the AAC, according to the
@P_Lytics
model
South Florida has struggled mightily the past 4 years, but new HC Alex Golesh is projected to turn the program around completely
USF is +5000 to win the AAC 👀
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The
@dallascowboys
are projected to win the 2023-2024 NFC East, according to the
@P_Lytics
model
Not one NFC East champ has repeated since 2004 (Eagles won in '22)
Here’s why the
#DallasCowboys
will succeed this season and what it means for fantasy football 🔽
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@P_Lytics
The Seahawks drafted WR stud Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the 1st rd of the 2023 NFL draft, signaling their desire to throw the ball.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the ‘21 OSU WR room with 95 rec, 1606 rec yds, and 9 TDs.
He did this while sharing the field with Chris Olave (65 rec - 936 rec…
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If you'd like to know a player's probability that they reach 200 PPR fantasy points in 2022, drop their name below and I'll give you their relative ranking and their probability
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| THREAD 🧵 |
PRE-DRAFT 2022 RB RANKINGS
1️⃣ Isaiah “Man Child” Spiller | TAMU | 6’2 217 lbs | Brady Score: 0.852
While your fav analysts shill the “fade Isaiah Spiller” narrative, do yourself a favor and draft the kid who posted 946 rush yds and 10 TDs at 18 yrs old in the SEC
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The
@Chiefs
are projected to win the 2023-2024 AFC West, according to the
@P_Lytics
model
This same model projected the Seahawks at 10 wins in 2022 when Vegas had them at 5.5 wins
Here’s why the
#ChiefsKingdom
will succeed this season and what it means for fantasy football 🔽
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Officially invited to my second straight Scott Fish Bowl representing
@TheUndroppables
!
Big shoutout and thank you to
@ScottFish24
for putting together such an amazing event each year
I’ll be at the DC Live event for anyone looking to meet up! All are welcome
#SFB13
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The Titans pass game will be consolidated around DeAndre Hopkins (my WR17) and Treylon Burks (my WR35)
DHop remains a target hog and produced 64 rec - 717 rec yds - 3 TDs in 9 games in 2022 (120 rec - 1,354 rec yds - 6 TDs full season pace)
Treylon is an ascending WR and will…
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@P_Lytics
Finally, Monken has speed on the outside in Bateman and OBJ
Bateman is a speedy deep-threat WR (19.0 YPC) with skills to pay the bills
And OBJ remains a key target and scored a TD in 7 out of his last 11 games (15% TD rate)
Here's the last time they were on the field 🔽
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the fact that you can get 130+ targets in the 8th round rn is ridiculous
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Just hit 2,000 followers. Blessed and grateful for every single one of you 🙏
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@P_Lytics
Isaiah Likely ←→ Darnell Washington
Likely is a 6’5 250lb TE w/ strong pass-catching abilities. My TE14
As a rookie TE, Likely was 12th in RZ targets (11) and 18th in YPRR (1.54).
With another year of experience and Monken’s love for 2-TE sets, I expect Likely to produce.
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I analyzed Best Ball Mania 3 data to learn how to win $3M in
#BBM4
. Analysts discuss the importance of:
Stacking
ADP Value
Roster Construction
But the most important piece is often overlooked.
Here is the best way to win $3M in Best Ball Mania.
Happy Father's Day.
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Which wide receiver would you prefer to have on your fantasy team next season?
Player A on the left scored 180 PPR points in 2021
Player B on the right scored 125 PPR points in 2021
Like for player A, comment for player B
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I built a model to combat the rising WR ADPs and learn how best to tackle the $3M BBM4 drafts
My early takeaways:
1⃣ RB dead zone pushed back to the rounds 7-10 (Mattison, Pacheco)
2⃣ First round WRs value over replacement is the highest of any position group. DRAFT ELITE WR
3⃣…
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Thanks for sticking with me. I put in a lot of hours into the model and I've learned a ton about ML doing what I love... finding an edge in fantasy football 👿
BACK TO THE MODEL:
We got a 67% accuracy with no tuning! This is promising and we'll use Grid Search for optimizations
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The most powerful variable in predicting an NFL WR's success is their draft pick. The college breakout age is the 2nd most important variable, but possesses less than half the power of draft capital. We should trust the guys who do this for a living!
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@P_Lytics
Add JSN to a WR room w/ perennial studs Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf and you have one hell of a pass game
DK produced 90 rec - 1048 rec yds - 6 TDs and Lockett produced 84 rec - 1033 rec yds - 9 TDs in ‘22.
I project the Seahawks to throw the ball close to 600 times this season…
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Antonio Williams is considered one of the best WRs in the country.
He put up 56 rec, 604 rec yds, 4 TDs as an 18-year-old true freshman!
The first-team freshman All-American could join the elite Clemson WRs of Mike Williams, Tee Higgins and DeAndre Hopkins as soon as this year
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If you’ve been following along
@TheUndroppables
, the Undroppables Risk Score had Cam Akers as the highest chance to bust out of any player in the first 6 rounds
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@_MichaelGartman
@P_Lytics
I guess we’ll find out this year 🤷
To tell me to stop posting content because you don’t agree with the model’s output is childish
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🔥 ANNOUNCEMENT 🔥
I am down to my final 20 drafts for
#BBM4
.
The Final 20 BBM4 draft show will premiere on
@TheUndroppables
YouTube and each episode will feature a special guest!
First up: BB legend
@JamesBrimacombe
aka EAGLEZZZ
Tune in Aug 23rd @ 11PM ET
Guest schedule 🔽
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The
@Titans
are projected to win the AFC SOUTH, according to the ΛƬӨM model
King Henry and Mike Vrabel seek their 3rd division title in 4 years
Here are the projections for all 4 AFC South teams and what it means for fantasy football 🔽
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The
@BuffaloBills
will be the 2023-2024 AFC East Division Champs
@P_lytics
algorithm took down $90,000 at the ‘21 WestGate Super on NFL spreads and is using the same winning process for this year’s NFL season
Here’s why the
#BillsMafia
will succeed this season and what it…
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When we input 2022, the most likely players to reach 200 PPR fantasy points in 2022 are:
1. DK Metcalf
2. Tyreek Hill
3. Joe Mixon
4. Justin Jefferson
5. Ja'Marr Chase
6. Jonathan Taylor
7. Mike Evans
8. Stefon Diggs
9. Diontae Johnson
10. D.J. Moore
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2022 RB Rankings are here!
👑 Breece Hall
🚂 Kenneth Walker
🔥 James Cook
😴 Julius Chestnut
Find the process of calculating these RB rankings in the quote tweet, and find out how the 2022 RB class stacks up against previous RB classes in the thread below 🔽
I built an XGBoost Classification model to predict the probability NFL RBs score fantasy points. I took the RB model a step further than the WR model by identifying LEAGUE WINNERS 👑. The tiers:
RB1: >= 300 PPR pts 👑
RB2: 200-300
RB3: 100-200
RB4: <100
Here's how I built it.
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WR (targets / game)
1. Cooper Kupp (14.5) 🤯
2. Michael Pittman (13.0)
3. Ja’Marr Chase (12.5)
4. Tyreek Hill (12.5)
5. Jaylen Waddle (12.0)
6. Amon-Ra St. Brown (12.0)
7. Davante Adams (12.0)
8. Stefon Diggs (11.5)
9. Justin Jefferson (11.5)
10. Garrett Wilson (11.0)
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Going to refresh my rookie WR and RB XGBoost models from last year after the NFL draft!
Last year’s results 👀👀
Stay tuned…
@TheUndroppables
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24
Happy Father’s Day Dad.
None of this would be possible without you
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I’m going to start having guests on
@TheUndroppables
A Best Ball Draft a Day show!
Our first guest is going to be none other than the legend
@101chalk
!!
Join us tomorrow night at 10 PM ET on
@TheUndroppables
YouTube for a legendary episode
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Best ball mania 4 draft live streams resume on Wednesday at 12 PM ET on
@TheUndroppables
YouTube
Took a brief hiatus from our hunt for $3M to go to a Texas wedding with this beautiful girl
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Huge shoutout to the
@OffensivePoints
guys for letting me compete with them at
@theffexpo
flag football tournament!!
@caliking49er17
@JosHallSTL
@IDP_Iggy
@JCMoneyDesign
@Hombrevender
@Colt_Snody
@OPJoee
@P_Lytics
@Wes_FPharaoh
My dawgs
#expoflagfootball
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We remove variables that will not be used in the model: name, date of birth, variables with more than 30% null values, etc. And now we explore correlations between variables to check for multicollinearity. Draft pick is our most correlated variable with our target 👀
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My Rankings for 2023
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Our dataset included 1,131 WRs and 47 variables. The data included medicals, combine testing, PlayerProfiler agg metrics, college production, draft capital, and NFL production.
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Money by young thug has the hardest beat drop I’ve heard in years
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@lukesawhook
@P_Lytics
Luke! Appreciate you providing feedback.
I love the Bengals this year too for fantasy, but there is data to suggest that they win less than most people are expecting.
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TE (targets / game)
1. Tyler Higbee (10) 🧐
2. Mark Andrews (9)
3. Pat Friermuth (8.5)
4. Travis Kelce (8.0)
5. Tyler Conklin (8.0)
6. Hayden Hurst (7.5)
7. Zach Ertz (7.5)
8. Gerald Everett (7.0)
9. TJ Hockenson (7.0)
10. Darren Waller (7.0)
11. Dalton Schultz (6.5)
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0
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Last week proved that fantasy football is a game of opportunity.
Again, here are your top 24 opportunity (targets + carries) leaders through 3 weeks which you can also use as a start/sit guide ⬇️
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I broke 1k followers on here this past week. So grateful to
@101chalk
and
@TheUndroppables
for helping me get started in this space. Cheers!
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How much does roster construction impact playoff expectations?
BBM3 teams that built 2-6-7-3, 2-6-8-2, 2-5-8-3, 2-5-7-4, and 3-5-7-3 rosters all advanced to the playoffs over expectation.
2-6-7-3 had the greatest edge at 11.2% over expectation
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RB (carries + targets / game)
1. Joe Mixon (29.5)
2. Leonard Fournette (25.5)
3. Saquon Barkley (25)
4. Jonathan Taylor (24)
5. Nick Chubb (21.5)
6. Austin Ekeler (21)
7. Antonio Gibson (20)
8. James Robinson (19)
9. Cordarelle Patterson (19)
10. David Montgomery (19)
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I'll be releasing a thread tomorrow explaining how I built my $3M BBM4 model
You'll learn the most important variables for predicting fantasy points for each position and who YOU should be drafting in fantasy football this year
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After removing multicollinearity, we're now ready for exploratory analysis. First we check our target classes. We see a clear class imbalance, so we will use stratification when we train the model. This ensures our model learns the classes equally otherwise it will overpredict 4s
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My first and only NFL mock draft
1. HOU (via CAR) - QB Bryce Young
2. CAR (via HOU) - QB Will Levis
3. ARI - DE Will Anderson
4. IND - QB Anthony Richardson
5. SEA - DL Jalen Carter
6. DET - CB Devon Witherspoon
7. LV - QB CJ Stroud
8. ATL - RB Bijan Robinson
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The
@Seahawks
and the
@BuffaloBills
are projected to face off in
@SuperBowl
LVIII, according to the #ΛƬӨM model
🔎 Did you know? After every NFC East team's Super Bowl appearance since 2002, an NFC West team has made it there the next year
#Seahawks
#BillsMafia
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11. Diontae Johnson (11.0)
12. Brandin Cooks (11.0)
13. Ceedee Lamb (11.0)
14. AJ Brown (10.5)
15. Curtis Samuel (10.0)
16. Drake London (9.5)
17. Jakobi Meyers (9.5)
18. Christian Kirk (9.0)
19. Courtland Sutton (9.0)
20. Michael Thomas (8.5)
21. Marquise Brown (8.5)
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I will not show all of the input variables for the sake of the thread, but we are looking to ensure our variables are close to a normal distribution. An illustrative example using vertical jump:
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Some bonus content -
favorite players at ADP based on model output are:
Jacobs: 0.734 (ADP: 61)
Gibson: 0.724 (ADP: 64)
Zeke: 0.707 (ADP: 40)
Cooks: 0.670 (ADP: 58)
Hollywood: 0.646 (ADP: 37)
Mclaurin: 0.585 (ADP: 45)
Renfrow: 0.579 (ADP: 85)
Pitts: 0.522 (ADP: 32)
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I love Disney World. Was there yesterday and had a blast. Getting out of the parking lot was also 10x faster than getting out at FedEx with 10x as many people. Do better
@Commanders
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Now, we create our target variable by finding the max fantasy points from the NFL production data. We see 616 WRs come out with a score, meaning we will drop the WRs who were not scored.
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Top 12 QBs 2023
Josh Allen is a fantasy cheat code
Vanilla Vick’s rushing ability is massively underrated
Kenny Pickett is going to breakout in a big way
I have no idea what to do with my model’s prediction for Patrick Mahomes
It's important to apply context to this
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My 2022 league winner: Jameson Williams
He’s most likely going to come off the PUP, but once he plays, he’s going to set the field on fire. Only elite players possess the speed/skill combo of Jamo, and he’ll quickly become the focal point of the Lions offense.
40 bomb incoming
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So that’s the story of
@P_Lytics
.
I’ve been bashed a lot on here, but that’s okay because I’ve already won.
I met an amazing business partner, and I made a lifelong friend (and he’s not too bad at this sports betting thing either)
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Another Best Ball Mania livestream at 12 PM ET today on
@TheUndroppables
YouTube
$3M vibes fresh off a
@DezBryant
follow
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Holy shit guys.
@P_Lytics
and I cracked the code.
These fantasy football rankings are going to help someone win millions of dollars and we’re giving it out completely free
It’ll be live tomorrow at 1 PM ET on
@TheUndroppables
website at
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#NewProfilePic
little rebranding changing the Twitter name and profile pic to align with the podcast. Follow along at the Unending Rebuild, find us on Apple and Spotify podcasts
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1
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A special guest is joining us on
@TheUndroppables
livestream tonight at 8 PM ET!
@AndrewMackens
from Underdog Fantasy will talk about his tips for winning the $3M in
#BBM4
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Immaculate vibes today
Josh Allen QB1
Josh Jacobs RB1
The Josh’s will bring you to the promised land
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@P_Lytics
If you want to meet us in-person, Chosen and I will be at
@theffexpo
next month.
Come visit us at our booth and say hi!
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