Chris Wecht
@ChrisWechtFF
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Director of Analytics @FantasyPts @FantasyPtsData | 2023 Best Ball Data Bowl Finalist | Former Data Analyst FTN | PFF
Joined June 2016
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Thousands of plays scraped and charted multiple times. Hours and hours of coding to process the data. Hundreds of accuracy checks performed to test an infinite number of possible filter combinations.
This is what led to the biggest, most revolutionary product to hit the fantasy…
🚨 ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨
@FantasyPtsData
is officially live and free to use all week.
Check it out here:
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My wife and I are expecting our first baby in February!
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I'd say having a good YPRR vs Man and Zone coverage is pretty important
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9 of the top 10 draft picks last year had a pre draft meeting of some kind with the team they were drafted by
8 of them were official 30 visits
Some interesting notes of pre draft visits for this year
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Kyler is going to win someone 3 Million dollars this year isn’t he
Cardinals named injured QB Kyler Murray one of their six team captains:
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5 Stats to Know from
@FantasyPtsData
following NFL Week 10:
1. Trey McBride over the past 3 weeks
- 34.5% air yard share
- 31.5% target share
- 3.02 YPRR
Those would all 1st, 1st, and 1st among TEs this season
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Bijan Robinson has the 7th highest snap rate inside the red zone on the Falcons behind
Van Jefferson
MyCole Pruitt
Tyler Allgeier
Jonnu Smith
He has the 10th highest snap rate inside the 5
Behind fullback Keith Smith
#Falcons
coach Arthur Smith’s six-minute explanation on why Bijan Robinson isn’t getting touches in the red zone
Hang this in the loo
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Over the last 3 weeks Diontae Johnson looks like a true alpha WR1
29.6% Target Share
42% Yardage Share
69% Catch Rate to Pickens 44%
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5 Stats to Know from
@FantasyPtsData
following Week 7 of the NFL
1. Josh Palmer ranks 13th in YPRR since the Mike Williams injury ahead of Keenan Allen who ranks 40th
He also ranks 2nd in YPRR vs Man coverage at 5.4 YPRR
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5 of my favorite stats from
@FantasyPtsData
follwing Week 5:
Breece Hall leads all RBs with 50+ carries in explosive play percentage. 10.7% of his carries go for 15+ yards.
He is contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 52% of this carries. Top 5 worst in the NFL
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YPRR vs MAN/ZONE coverage
- George Pickens has joined the A tier WR group
- DeVonta Smith is not in a great group
- Josh Palmer a man beater CC
@BGWhitefield
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Running Backs with more guaranteed money than D'Andre Swift
CMC
Kamara
Jonathan Taylor
Bijan
Chubb
Gibbs
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It’s been a crazy eventful past year:
1. Become full-time in the football industry ✅
2. Get Married ✅
3. Buy a house ✅
Maybe the next 365 days will be a little more low key
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Just finished rewatching the PHI/DAL game
It took DAL playing a damn near perfect game, 4 turnovers, and a backup QB to barely beat PHI
Minshew was solid but also missed some easy throws
This team isn’t losing in the playoffs with a healthy Hurts and hopefully Lane Johnson
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Catchable Targets per Game ranked by team regardless of the QB via
@FantasyPtsData
If you were a Bears or Falcons receiver you had half the chance of getting a catchable target regardless of your target share than a Bucs receiver
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Running Back Yards Before Contact vs After Contact
- Jahmyr Gibbs is so fast defenders can't even get their hands on him
- It seems like Hubbard has rightfully taken the starting job from Miles Sanders
- Bijan and Allgeier being on opposite ends is really telling
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5 stats to know from
@FantasyPtsData
following Week 8 of the NFL
1. Tony Pollard ranked 1st, 2nd, and 18th in YACO/Touch, Explosive Play Rate and MTF/Touch in 2022
In 2023 he ranks 28th, 20th, and 33rd in each of those metrics
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Yards per Route Run vs Man and Zone
- Jayden Reed the best WR on the Packers
- The Rashee Rice breakout is coming
- 2022 elite WR2s Tee Higgins/Devonta Smith not really separating this season
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YPRR vs Man and Zone
- Waddle not an elite Man beater but kills Zone
- DJ Moore and CeeDee Lamb more Man beaters than Zone
- Nico Collins, Aiyuk, Jefferson, Puka, AJB, and Tyreek elite at both
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5 Stats to Know following Week 15 in the NFL from
@FantasyPtsData
1. Since Week 13, Rashee Rice has 39% of his targets coming on designed throws leading the NFL.
He has a higher target share than Travis Kelce and 2.39 YPRR ranking 14th in the NFL
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5 Stats to know for tonight's juicy matchup between the Ravens and Bengals from
@FantasyPtsData
1. Since returning from the bye Joe Burrow has the 3rd highest FP/DB vs. 2-High Coverage
The Ravens play the 8th most 2-High Coverage in the NFL
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Pass Rate Over Expectation Following Week 2
Eagles very run heavy again
Lions 2nd lowest in the NFL despite the shootout this week
Anthony Richardson to the moon if Colts keep this PROE up
Rams receiving weapons can continue to shine with high pass rates in shootouts
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Yards Before Contact & After Contact
- Jerome Ford just needs some better blocking and he is going to rip off some long runs
- Chuba>Sanders
- Josh Jacobs not running well through contact and not getting much help from his OL
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5 Stats to Know for tonight's Seahawks and Cowboys matchup from
@FantasyPtsData
:
1. Dak Has been the 3rd best QB vs. Man Coverage this year
The Seahawks only play Man Coverage Defense 14% of the time
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Missed watching the Super Bowl for the first time in my lifetime that I can remember but it was a for a good reason…
Parker William Wecht was fittingly born shortly after kickoff
He wanted to be a Super Bowl baby
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YPPR vs Man and Zone Coverage
- Hello Rashee Rice
- Is C.J. Stroud making the WRs or are the WRs making Stroud?
- The Ravens don't have a single receiver above NFL average in either category
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5 Stats to know from Week 5 in the NFL
Jordan Addison earned 27% of the Vikings 1st Read Targets after Justin Jefferson left last week's game
That would be the highest mark for Addison all season and now 35% of the 1st Read Tgts are available with Jefferson out
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The full A.J. Brown route tree. Just don't have him stop and turn around back to the ball and you win
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The Lions backfield snaps from last night.
Inside the 5 Snaps - Monty 100% Gibbs 0%
Inside the 10 Snaps - Monty 100% Gibbs 0%
Inside the 20 Snaps - Monty 84% Gibbs 21%
Passing Snaps - Monty 61% Gibbs 45%
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Imagine how much the 49ers would be winning by if Purdy didn’t get hurt last year
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5 of my favorite stats following Week 11 from
@FantasyPtsData
:
Players that come off the field the most when their team enters the RedZone since WK7
Tyler Higbee
Overall Snap % = 82%
RZ Snap % = 28%
Aaron Jones
Overall = 63%
RZ = 25%
Amari Cooper
Overall = 86%
RZ = 23%
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YPRR vs Man and Zone Defense
- OBJ popping vs Man defense is good for Ravens
- Mike Evans having a career year and clear WR1 over Godwin
- Rashee Rice should never leave the field
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Yards per Route Run vs Man and Zone coverage schemes per
@FantasyPtsData
Tank Dell 👀
Bengals likely a product of Burrow's struggles
DK>Lockett
Skyy looking interesting winning against MAN
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Eagles backfield stat line tonight
D'Andre Swift should never see less than 65% of the backfield touches again
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5 Stats to Know following Week 13 of the NFL from
@FantasyPtsData
1. Over the last five weeks Jordan Love ranks
4th in Passer Rating
3rd in Completion Percentage Over Expectation
8th in Average Depth of Target
His pressure rate has risen to 36% from 22% earlier in the season
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5 stats to know following Week 13 from
@FantasyPtsData
Greg Dulcich was the beneficiary of the Courtland Sutton injury. He had a season high 60% of the team's first read targets in Week 13.
That is the highest mark for a TE in a single week all season
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Christian Watson from Week 10 on:
- Led WRs in YPRR at 2.83
- 9th in Explosive Play Rate at 23%
- Led WRs in Passer Rating when targeted 126.9
- 41% 1st Read Target Share when lined up out wide behind only Tyreek, AJB, ARSB, and Mike Williams
- 5th in YPRR on the outside…
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5 Stats to Know following Week 12 in the NFL from
@FantasyPtsData
1. Kenny Pickett had a season high 72.7% accurate throw rate in Week 12 without Matt Canada
That is the 5th highest mark for a QB in a single week this season
His previous high was 47.8% in Week 4
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Yards Before and After Contact for RBs
- I need Devon Achane to stop breaking the chart
- Breece Hall if the Jets offense improves 👀
- Jerome Ford running well after contact if he gets better blocking
- Najee>Warren
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Yards Before and After Contact per Attempt
- James Conner might be one of the most underrated RBs of all time
- Both Lions RBs are really starting to heat up
- Aaron Jones right back in super efficient territory this season
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Khalil Herbert is averaging 4.8 yards after contact per attempt. Only D'Andre Swift and Aaron Jones rank higher than him.
Not only that he is seeing 2.4 yards before contact per attempt ranking 4th in the league among RBs with 20+ carries
Herbert is an RB1
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I need Devon Achane to stop breaking this chart
although Breece Hall and... Jaleel McLaughlin might also break it
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Is it Jahmyr Swift or D’Andre Gibbs?
Lions downgraded RB Jahmyr Gibbs to doubtful for Sunday’s game vs. the Panthers.
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5 stats to know from
@FantasyPtsData
following Week 16:
Over the last 5 weeks there is only one team with two receivers averaging over 2.5 yards per route run
It is not the Bengals, Vikings, Bills, or Seahawks
It is A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith on the Eagles
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The difference in Breece Hall’s and Walker’s ADP makes zero sense. You can argue Walker is in the better situation in every way outside of the fact he was not the first RB drafted
Carroll had a glowing -- even by his standards -- assessment of Ken Walker III, saying he's surprised at how well-rounded the rookie RB has become. Said he's "turned the page" with his college pass-pro struggles. "He could play all three downs and we'd feel comfortable with it."
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The Lions have NOT met with Devon Witherspoon
They have met with Jalen Carter,
Will Anderson, and Anthony Richardson
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Why I'm no longer drafting Chris Godwin in best ball using stats you can only find using
@FantasyPtsData
Godwin had a 20.4% TGT Share ranking 20th overall but he had 25.4% of his targets come on designed throws which ranked 5th
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One of my favorite ways to evaluate if QBs are good NFL QBs or fantasy QBs is to compare their Completion Percentage Over Expectation to their FP per dropback
Jordan Love's FP are bound to regress
Howell and Baker are looking like potential late round QBs
Burrow owners are in…
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5 Stats to know for tonight's TNF matchup between the Chargers and Raiders from
@FantasyPtsData
1. Since Week 7 Davante Adams has a 35% 1st Read Target Share vs. 2-High Coverage
The Chargers play the 7th most 2-High Coverage in the NFL
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5 stats you need to know following Week 12 from
@FantasyPtsData
:
AJ Brown has not led the Eagles in First Read Target Share since Week 8. He has only had the largest FR Share in a given week twice all season
Devonta Smith has led the team 4 times and each of the past 3 weeks
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YPRR vs TPRR
- NICO COLLINS
- There are only 2 RBs that reach the min 100 route qualifier for the chart
- Christian Kirk has rebounded in a big way since Week 1
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Team Leaders in PPR FP/Minute of possession
1. MIA 2.49
2. MIN 2.32
3. LAC 2.18
4. KC 2.05
5. HST 2.04
6. DEN 2.03
7. SEA 2.02
8. PIT 2.00
9. IND 1.97
10. NE 1.92
These are teams that get the most PPR FP per minute they have the ball
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Hero Throw Rate vs. Turnover Worthy Throw Rate
- Lamar Jackson and Jared Goff's season's are being talked about nearly enough
- Dak Prescott barely doing more for his team than Daniel Jones but he has put the ball in harms way more often
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5 stats to know from
@FantasyPtsData
for tonight's TNF Matchup between the Bucs and Bills
1. The Bucs blitz at the 4th highest rate in the NFL. When blitzed Josh Allen leads the NFL with 0.65 FP/DB
That is higher than his non-blitzed FP/DB rate of 0.58
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77% of you chose Latavius Murray over Kenneth Walker
Running back A has 44% success rate, 14.7% stuff rate, 4.7 YPA from 11 personnel.
Running back B has a 9% success rate, 19% stuff rate, 5.4 YPA from 11 personnel.
Which would you rather have?
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The people deserve to know where Christian Watson would be
@ChrisWechtFF
Show the good people where Christian Watson would be if he hit the route threshold 😘
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Stats to know for tonight's Saints and Jaguars matchup from
@FantasyPtsData
1. The Jaguars play only 18% of their dropbacks in MAN coverage.
When removing MAN coverage from the Saints' receivers, Alvin Kamara leads the team in target share
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5 Stats to Know from
@FantasyPtsData
for tonight's TNF game between the Saints and Rams:
1. Kupp has seen a 23% target share over Puka’s 21% over the past 3 weeks.
3 EZ targets for Kupp compared to 1 for Puka
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5 Stats to Know from
@FantasyPtsData
following Week 14 in the NFL:
1. Cooper Kupp has out-targeted Puka Nacua each of the past two weeks
That has not happened since Kupp first returned in Weeks 5 and 6
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Yards Before and After Contact per Attempt
- Jaylen Warren has replaced Breece Hall's usual spot
- James Conner a surprising name in the top right
- Singletary showing much better vision over Dameon Pierce
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Yards per Route Run in Man vs Zone
- DJ Moore leading the league vs. Man
- DeAndre Hopkins is back
- I don't know how Josh Reynolds loses targets to Jamo
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We have a full on RB timeshare in Minnesota
Akers out touched Mattison, but Mattison got the RZ touches which made their weighted opportunity almost identical
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5 Stats to Know following Week 6 from
@FantasyPtsData
Adam Thielen has the 2nd most targets 5+ yards down the field with at least a step of separation
Last season he ranked 9th in percentage of his total targets that had at least a step of separation
Maybe he isn't washed?
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5 of my favorite stats following Week 8 from
@FantasyPtsData
with some new charts this week!
PJ Walker is leading the NFL in WOW throw rate at 11.3%. He doesn't have a huge sample size but he has improved the Panthers offense so far
Dak Prescott is not in a great group of QBs
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Pass Rate Over Expectation Through Week 7
- MIN still passing at a high rate despite losing Jefferson
- Without Metcalf, SEA went very run heavy
- Lions continue to rise in pass rate in tougher matchups
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My submission to the Best Ball Data Bowl looked at how ADP value affects stacking and attempts to quantify the optimal way to build stacks on your best ball rosters. See below for more!
And shoutout to
@bendominguez011
and
@peteroverzet
for putting together the competition.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Cover 1 last night 3.88 YPRR and 0.64 FP/RR
When lined up outside: 3.6 YPRR and 0.56 FP/RR
@FantasyPtsData
makes things easy
The Lions and Amon-Ra St. Brown have talked a lot about him playing on the outside more in 2023
When lined up out wide in 2022 ARSB had 3.57 YPRR vs. Cover 1 defenses
The coverage the Chiefs saw the most outside routes last season was Cover 1
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5 of my favorite stats following Week 10 in the
#NFL
from
@FantasyPtsData
CHRISTIAN WATSON SZN
Week 10 numbers ranked among other GB WRs weekly numbers from the season:
TGT Share 42.1% 1st
First Read Share 50% 1st
Air Yard Share 74.4% 1st
Threat Rate 47.1% 1st
YPRR 5.63 2nd
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5 of my favorite stats following Week 9 from
@FantasyPtsData
TJ Hockenson's Designed Target Share by Week
WK1: 14.3%
WK2-8: 0%
WK9: 22.2%
Justin Jefferson Designed Targets in Week 9 = 0
He has not had zero designed targets in a week since Week 4
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Have been playing with a Pace metric that looks at how many seconds teams are taking off the clock per play they run
Ultimately, we care how many plays a team gets in within the 60 minutes of game time
Then I adjusted it for situation (score margin and time) to make a Pace Over…
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After the 2017 Super Bowl Kelce dropped this quote:
“Hungry dogs run faster… We all wanted it more”
Those words changed my attitude towards everything I wanted to accomplish and still mutter them to myself regularly when the grind gets tough. 2 years later I finally got a full…
Six-time All-Pro and future Hall-of-Fame center Jason Kelce told his Eagles’ teammates in Monday night’s postgame locker room that he is in fact retiring, per league sources.
The 36-year-old Kelce became visibly emotional at the end of the Eagles’ 32-9 loss to the Buccaneers. He…
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Yards Before Contact vs Yards After Contact
Dolphins keep breaking the charts
Jerome Ford should see much better blocking
D'Andre Swift filling right into the Miles Sanders role
Speaking of Sanders... Chuba Hubbard is better
@FantasyPtsData
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Pass Rate Over Expectation following Week 8.
Imagine the points PHI could score if they ever ramped up their pass rate
@FantasyPtsData
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If you docked RBs half the XFP they would have earned for each inside the 10 carry/target they get after failing the previous one on the same drive this is how they would rank
Mixon, Walker, and Montgomery the biggest losers
Goal line touch metric but you actually get *minus* half a carry for your 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc attempts on the same drive. Call it the Mixon metric and weed out the beta backs
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Week 15 Shadow Report from
@FantasyPtsData
- DK Metcalf held in check up until that final drive by Bradberry
- Gilmore had two good weeks in a row shadowing
- Cam Sutton took away Courtland Sutton
- First time we've seen Ramsey shadow this season and he erased Garrett Wilson
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Routes Run by Rookie WRs in Week 6 per
@FantasyPtsData
Josh Downs 47
Michael Wilson 41
Jonathan Mingo 38
JSN 36
Jalin Hyatt 33
Zay Flowers 32
Jordan Addison 29
Puka 26
Trey Palmer 24
QJ 19
Rashee Rice 18
Tre Tucker 18
Tyler Scott 15
Marvin Mims 7
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Pumped to be a finalist for the first ever Best Ball Data Bowl!
Tons of great unique and different insights for how to approach best ball from all the submissions. Highly recommend checking all of them out!
Here are the 5 finalists for the Best Ball Data Bowl. Very tough to pick 5 we wanted to invite for Pete’s show, lots of great submissions. Tried to get a mix here of best ball fundamentals focused entries and data science focused entries
Congrats to the finalists and thank you…
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Week 12 NFL Shadow Report from
@FantasyPtsData
- Joey Porter held Chase mostly in check
- Eagles shadowed Diggs with Slay and Gabe with Bradberry. Gabe was the beneficiary
- Bills shadowed AJ Brown with Rasul Douglas
- Bengals shadowed PIT WRs and won both matchups
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Notes from 1st Read Target Shares from last night:
Amon-Ra St. Brown 36% doubles anyone from the game. Elite WR1
Marvin Jones 2nd on the team for the Lions at 16% has to come down
Gibbs only 1 designed target and only an 8% 1st Read Share
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5 Stats to Know for tonight's Bears and Panthers matchup from
@FantasyPtsData
1. The Panthers play the second most zone coverage in the NFL
Tyson Bagent has a 0.26 FP/DB vs zone 29th of 33 QBs
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5 stats to know following Week 15 from
@FantasyPtsData
Weeks 13-15 WR Teammates:
Player A:
Route Share: 75.5%
YPRR: 3.0
Tgt Share: 21.3%
AY Share: 30.7%
Player B:
Route Share: 81.1%
YPRR: 4.0
Tgt Share: 17%
AY Share: 29%
Player A is Chris Olave and Player B is Rashid Shaheed
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3. 12 WRs have a 1st-Read Target Share greater than or equal to 35% in 2023.
There were only 3 in 2021 and 4 in 2022
The list below doesn't even include CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua, and Adam Thielen
WR1s are taking over
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Daniel Jones Passer Rating by personnel:
11: 88.4
12: 125.3
13: 101.2
The addition of Darren Waller all but guarantees this team is going to have less WRs on the field at the same time
@FantasyPtsData
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How defenses allowed receiving fantasy points based on alignment
The Eagles secondary did not look great
Lions outside corners held up really well vs. KC
PIT, TEN, KC, and HST gave up very little receiving points to the backfield
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Pass Rate Over Expectation for Week 1
Eagles more pass happy than last year
Richardson and the Colts positive PROE
Bengals, Lions, Jags not looking great but game script may be the issue
I'm sorry Garrett Wilson drafters
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When you successfully faded both Cam Akers and Alexander Mattison all summer
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5 Stats to Know from
@FantasyPtsData
following Week 9 in the NFL
1. Dating back to 2022, Marcus Mariota’s 73.7% catchable ball rate is higher than both Desmond Ridder (72.1%) and Taylor Heinicke (68.6%)
Heinicke has been worse than Ridder in every accuracy metric this season
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Backyard is finally up and running just in time to crush the rest of best ball summer
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Weeks 1-6 without Hopkins
Marquise Brown was:
- Top 16 in 1st Read Target Share - 29.1%
- Top 18 in Designed Target Rate - 9.4%
- Top 14 in TPRR - 0.26
- 22.9% Slot Rate compared to 47.8% Slot Rate all other weeks
via
@FantasyPtsData
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NFL Pass Rate Over Expectation through Week 6 per
@FantasyPtsData
- Bengals are getting pass happier as Burrow gets healthier
- Eagles have started passing much more and have some tough matchups coming up
- Vikings dialed it back without Jefferson
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Playing USFL DFS will make you appreciate every other sport in DFS so much more
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Hero vs. Turnover Worthy Throw Rate
- In my opinion the MVP race should be down to Lamar and Hurts
- MAYBE Josh Allen if they can stack some wins
- Russell Wilson has been very good
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Last remaining best ball team moves on in the DK Touchdown Dance. Just need to beat out 112 other teams to take down 100k
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Pass Rate Over Expectation through Week 4
- Eagles continue to climb
- Jets might somewhat trust Zach Wilson?
- If the Lions ever need to pass ARSB, LaPorta, and Gibbs will smash
- KC leading the league despite their QB, WRs, and TE not being the top of their position
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These 3 Teammates have ADPs on
@UnderdogFantasy
Deebo: 33.9
Aiyuk: 52.3
Kittle: 60.2
You are really counting on a rebound year from Deebo...
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With Sony Michel’s injury who would you rather draft?
Sony Michel
545
Rex Burkhead
1136
James White
167
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5. Keaton Mitchell
- 25% Explosive run rate
- 12 Yards after contact per attempt
The Bengals have allowed the highest yards before contact, 2nd highest explosive run rate, and 7th highest yards after contact per attempt
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Super excited to be joining the
@FantasyPts
team to help build
@FantasyPtsData
into the best data resource for fantasy players of all kinds!
Can’t wait to show off what we plan to create this summer!
More growth, more expansion!
Pleased to welcome in
@ChrisWechtFF
as our lead data charter & programmer for
@FantasyPtsData
! Chris brings unmatched experience and we couldn't be happier to have him as part of the Fantasy Points roster! 📈📈📈
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