Graham Barfield
@GrahamBarfield
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One of co-owners @FantasyPts | Stats — @FantasyPtsData | Yards Created
Englewood, CO
Joined September 2013
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Yards Created is back!
This is a weaker RB class overall but YC has identified two potential standouts — Marshawn Lloyd and Jaylen Wright.
Full breakdown:
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Blaming your RB while having a bottom-3 OL, a child calling plays, and TIM BOYLE at QB is some loser energy
Robert Saleh said Breece Hall is a "special talent" but that "there's the grimy yards that a back has to understand he needs to get."
Said he's trying to create explosives right now and he needs to get more of the tough yards rather than always trying to hit a home run.
#Jets
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Derrick Henry's last eight games:
203 carries
1,273 rushing yards
6.27 YPC
11 TDs
Henry has set a new all-time record for most rushing yards in any 8-game stretch in NFL history.
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The Ravens gained 523 yards on offense tonight. Lamar Jackson accounted for 504 of them.
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Jonathan Taylor: Houses a screen for 76 yards
Frank Reich: We have to get Marlon Mack going
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Josh Allen finished 26-of-35 (74%) for 324 yards and 2 TDs. Also added 11/54/1 with his legs.
This makes him the first QB to throw for 300+, run for 50+, and complete at least 70% of his passes in a playoff game all-time. Unreal.
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Yeah this all just sounds like 175 targets to Cooper Kupp
Everyone's excited about Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell potentially being the Rams' No. 3 receiver, but don't sleep on Demarcus Robinson or Tyler Johnson
They've impressed in camp so far – especially Robinson
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Jeff Fisher thought Danny Woodhead was still on the Patriots when Los Angeles played New England back in Week 14, 2016.
Sean McVay knows the
#Bears
defense inside and out. Casually goes through each defensive starter... (via
@DustinFox37
)
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7K
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Adam Thielen's game log is so ridiculous that it almost looks fake:
Week 1: 6/102 (12 targets)
Week 2: 12/131/1 (13 targets)
Week 3: 14/105 (19 targets)
Week 4: 8/135/1 (12 targets)
Week 5: 7/116/1 (10 targets)
Week 6: 11/123/1 (15 targets)
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Most yards per carry in a single-season over the last 40 years:
1. Jamaal Charles (2010), 6.38 YPC
2. Barry Sanders (1997), 6.13 YPC
3. Philip Lindsay (2018), 6.08 YPC
4. Alvin Kamara (2017), 6.07 YPC
5. Adrian Peterson (2012), 6.03 YPC
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Fantasy MVP rankings so far:
1. Christian McCaffrey
2. Patriots defense
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Among RBs with at least 125 carries over the last two years, Aaron Jones is...
• 1st in YPC (5.7)
• 1st in yards gained after a defender closes (4.5)
• 1st in rushing gains of 10+ yards (17.4%)
• 1st in success rate (59%)
• 2nd in first down rate (29%)
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If the last two weeks have proven anything, it’s that straight up head-to-head formats in fantasy football need to go. Play-all, total points, best ball, etc. is the future. Reward the best teams for the full season, not the luckiest for a week.
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Jon Gruden’s first offseason
#Raiders
:
- Build the NFL’s oldest roster (age: 27.4).
- Trade Khalil Mack, who leads all EDGE rushers in pressures since 2014.
- Trade 79 overall for Martavis Bryant, then cut him before Week 1.
- Select T Kolton Miller over S Derwin James.
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Teams all out for Week 17: NE, SF, GB, NO, DAL, PHI, KC, SEA, PIT, OAK, TEN
Expected to rest: MIN, BAL, BUF, LAR, HOU (if KC wins)
Playing divisional opponent with playoff chance: DET, CAR, NYG, WAS, MIA, LAC, DEN
Playing for pride: CLE, CIN, IND, JAX, ARI, ATL, TB, NYJ, CHI
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Since Hue Jackson was fired (after Week 8), Baker Mayfield's passer rating is 129.5. Only Drew Brees (142.1) has been better in this span.
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A list of players that have scored more fantasy points than the Patriots defense (169.0) through Week 8:
Christian McCaffrey
Dalvin Cook
Deshaun Watson
Russell Wilson
Michael Thomas
Lamar Jackson
Austin Ekeler
Aaron Jones
That's it.
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Nick Chubb averaged 4.4 yards after first contact this season, the best clip by any RB with at least 75 carries in a single-season over the last 12 years.
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Including the postseason, Tyler Lockett put up 1,085 yards on 76 targets. For context of how absurd this is, Lockett's 14.3 yards per target is the best single-season in YPT since target-tracking began in 1992. Next closest WR is 2011 Jordy Nelson (13.2 YPT).
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I think most NFL data should be free. So, I made a compiled sheet of 2017 team data from open sources (per drive statistics, volume stats, OL/defensive data, and more). You can view play call tendencies over the last two seasons on the second tab.
Enjoy:
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Ken Walker’s 2.5 games as the lead RB:
49 carries
348 yards
7.1 YPC
5 TDs
Unstoppable.
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Tom Brady isn’t the “TE whisperer.” He just threw to the most dominant tight end ever for 9 seasons.
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Week 11 TE fantasy options with no Evan Engram, Austin Hooper, and George Kittle
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Most receiving yards per game by a rookie WR all-time:
1. Odell Beckham (108.8)
2. Anquan Boldin (86.1)
3. Randy Moss (82.1)
4. Justin Jefferson (78.4)
5. Michael Thomas (75.8)
6. Tee Higgins (75.4) !!!
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DeAndre Hopkins route tree over his last three games has been... limited
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These are the only RBs I’d start over Mike Boone in Week 16:
CMC
Carson
Mixon
Zeke
Barkley
Henry
Ingram
Aaron Jones
Ekeler/Gordon
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Zac Taylor does a lot of things right, but not playing Joe Mixon on third-downs or in two-minute will never make sense.
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What’s wrong with DJ Moore? The answer in one play:
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This blows my mind: Washington had Sean McVay (TEs coach), Kyle Shanahan (OC), Matt LaFleur (QBs coach), and Kirk Cousins under one roof in 2012-13.
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So, the Packers hate Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones. Neat.
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Russell Wilson deserves a Nobel Prize for carrying Pete Carroll all these years.
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Lowest passer rating allowed when the nearest defender per Next Gen Stats (among 105 qualifying CBs):
- Jalen Ramsey (58.6)
- Patrick Peterson (58.8)
- Kyle Fuller (60.8)
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Drake London and Kyle Pitts have 1 target, 0 combined catches at the half
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Bruce Arians lying about how he’ll use his running backs. A four-part story.
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Austin Ekeler dunking on the counselor is the best thing I’ve seen on this website in months
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Recap of Kellen Moore's debut as
#Cowboys
play-caller:
• Used play action on 48% of Dak Prescott's passes (last year: 25%)
• Used motion on 73% of their total plays (last year: 45%)
• Were in 11-personnel (3WR) on 73% of their plays (last year: 63%)
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Will never understand why the Lions don’t feed T.J. Gronkenson 10 targets every week
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If you auto-draft 1.01, it should force in Van Jefferson — not Justin Jefferson.
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Most yards per game for any WR in their first two seasons over the last 35 years:
1. Odell Beckham (102.0)
2. Randy Moss (85.2)
3. Josh Gordon (81.7)
4. JuJu Smith-Schuster (78.7)* youngest
5. Jerry Rice (78.0)
6. AJ Green (77.6)
7. Anquan Boldin (76.9)
8. Michael Thomas (76.8)
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Over the last two years, the
#Giants
have averaged 21.6 points per game with Odell Beckham in the lineup versus 14.8 points without OBJ.
It’s borderline unprecedented for a skill-position player to have a near 7-point impact over a sizable sample size (14 missed games).
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Sammy Watkins has now played 10 full games with
#Chiefs
. In these contests, he's averaging:
- 5.0 receptions (career high)
- 64.1 yards (second-most)
- 72.7% catch rate (career high)
- 120.0 passer rating when targeted (second-best)
- 80% of targets catchable (career high; PFF)
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These were the top-24 RBs by ADP on July 1st this summer.
Absolute carnage.
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Excited and humbled to announce that I’ve joined as the Managing Editor of Fantasy Football Content. I'll contribute articles, go on the NFL Fantasy podcast, work with
#NextGenStats
, and provide weekly in-season ranks. Looking forward to the years to come!
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Will Fuller sleepwalked to 8/112 on a D- night for the Texans offense. Massive 32% target share. Gets BAL / PIT next but matchups wont matter with the type of usage he saw tonight.
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Eli Manning's splits without Odell Beckham are truly horrific:
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How to turn around your career and cash in on a big contract, according to Ryan Tannehill and DeVante Parker:
Step 1) Get as far away from Adam Gase as possible
Step 2) See Step 1
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Joe Mixon ran 25 routes to Gio Bernard's 5 yesterday. Out-targeted him 6 to 0. We'll see if that continues, but that's the type of usage we've been wanting for Mixon for two years now.
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Lamar Jackson is now on pace to score 422.5 fantasy points this season, which would break Patrick Mahomes QB scoring record from last year (417.1 points). Insane.
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Snapshot of
#Packers
stagnation under Mike McCarthy this year:
• Lead NFL in pass rate on first down despite Aaron Jones' 6.5 YPC on 1D
• Lead NFL in passes outside the numbers
• Lead NFL in throwaways
• 7th-lowest play action rate
• 9th-lowest pre-snap motion rate
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Setting waivers and it just now occurred to me that 22 leagues might be a few too many
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What the Packers should do: Sell the farm for Deebo
What they will actually do: Draft a tackle at 22, a CB at 29 and make Randall Cobb WR1
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Sam Howell has thrown 191 passes after five games
Jahan Dotson (30 targets) and Terry McLaurin (31) have only combined to see 31.4% of the targets
These two should be dominating looks
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Which teams used pre-snap motion/shifts most often in 2019? [via PFF]
1. SF (79%)
2. BAL (71%)
3. NE (64%)
T4. KC (61%)
T4. TEN (61%)
6. DAL (60%)
7. CAR (58%)
T8. DEN (55%)
T8 LAC (55%)
10. PIT (50%)
...
T28. MIA (35%)
T28. ARI (35%)
30. NYJ (32%)
31. BUF (31%)
32. JAX (25%)
30
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The answer at the Round 1 / 2 turn is not a running back. It’s Calvin Ridley.
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22
987
This is one of the worst fantasy beats I have ever seen:
My fiancée made the championship in her work league, but her would-be opponent just lost on a Jared Goff stat correction. INT (-1 point) changed to fumble (-2) caused the No. 1 seed (11-3 record) to lose... by .08 points.
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954
Deebo Samuel has 415 rushing yards over his last nine games, which is more than Ezekiel Elliott (411) had in his final 10 games.
23
74
952
Remember that time when Cam Newton made Kelvin Benjamin look good and then he carried the Panthers to the Super Bowl without KB the following year?
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923
Tee Higgins with the most brutal stat line for Week 1:
Eight targets, 0/0 receiving
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938
Deep pass completion rate:
1 Jimmy Garoppolo (56%)
2 Dak Prescott (46%)
T3 Kirk Cousins, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson (44%)
T6 Patrick Mahomes, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew (41%)
---
26 Jared Goff (27%)
27 Sam Darnold (24%)
T28 Josh Allen, Daniel Jones (21%)
30 Kyle Allen (20%)
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There is one fantasy strategy that has a 100% success rate for the last 3 years.
I call it ZeroMecole
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George Kittle’s broken record (1,377 yards) is impressive enough, but the deep dive is absurd:
- Best season ever in yards per route run by TE
- Led all players in YAC
- Led TEs in 20+ yard receptions
- 2nd among TEs in yards per route vs press coverage
- Led TEs in DPI’s drawn
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Fantasy points scored Weeks 14-17
Ezekiel Elliott — 58.1 half-PPR
Tony Pollard — 30
Happy New Year!
2
41
909
I love when the person in front of me takes Miles Sanders. It’s like finding a lost $20 in the car
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890
One thing we learned from the Draft this year is the NFL *loved* Baker Mayfield while Big Draft Media underestimated him. Great sign for forward-thinking in the NFL.
CLE and reportedly NYG/NYJ had him No. 1 on their board. Sean McVay and Adam Gase gushed over Mayfield, too.
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Hakeem Butler is a size-speed freak who dominated in 2018 at 6-5, 227lbs:
• 55% of his receptions gained 20+ yards, highest rate in class
• Leads class in YPR, 5th in yards gained per route run (PFF)
• Tested as 98th percentile athlete in height-adjusted forty yard dash
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869
Since so many teams might have cap issues in the next 2-3 years, have they considered forcing their RBs into unpaid internships?
30
62
881
Julio Jones finishes among WRs in fantasy points since 2014:
WR3
WR2
WR7
WR6
WR2
WR6
24
66
874
Everyone is searching for the next Tyreek Hill and the answer is staring you right in the face. It’s Hollywood Brown.
76
44
869
Among RBs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the best route runner to come into league since Christian McCaffrey. CMC is a little more versatile, but few backs consistently create separation against LBs like Edwards-Helaire.
42
112
857
Fewest yards of separation at the catch point among qualified wide receivers, per
#NextGenStats
:
2017 - Kelvin Benjamin (129th-of-129; 1.8 yards of separation)
2018 - Kelvin Benjamin (159th-of-159; 1.8 yards of separation)
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Zach Wilson spinning out of a clean pocket. We’re so back.
5
43
868
These are my updated PPR tiers through two weeks of the preseason:
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78
853
Top-5 RBs in Next Gen Stats' rushing success rate over the last two combined seasons:
1. Alvin Kamara - 58.0%
2. Todd Gurley - 55.7%
3. Aaron Jones - 55.6%
4. Christian McCaffrey - 54.2%
5. Ezekiel Elliott - 53.8%
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830
If you play in PPR leagues, you should always be thinking along these lines:
RB projected for 165 carries + 80 targets >>> RB projected for 250 carries + 30 targets.
Targets are worth 3x more fantasy points than carries.
And yes, this is a Austin Ekeler > Josh Jacobs tweet.
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48
831
Miles Sanders is going to finish as an RB1 in 2020
39
38
820
Pete Carroll was right and everyone owes him an apology
19
42
827
The Giants giving Kadarius Toney anything less than 8 targets per game from here on out would be a crime against humanity
24
39
808
Most games with 30+ fantasy points by a quarterback in a season all-time:
1. Lamar Jackson 2019 (6)
2. Steve Young 1994, Tom Brady 2007, Peyton Manning 2013, Drew Brees 2013, Cam Newton 2015 (5)
31
115
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Javonte Williams performance so far reminds me of how much better Jonathan Taylor looked than Mack/Hines last year, but it took over a month for the Colts coaching staff to finally just let it ride with JT.
Hopefully this Broncos staff sees the writing on the wall.
52
74
816
So, since Sam Darnold is getting away from Gase... he’s going to turn into the next Ryan Tannehill in Carolina, right? That’s how this works?
45
45
810
Jets have made six picks in the top-35 over the last two years and have come away with:
QB Zach Wilson
OL Alijah Vera-Tucker
WR Elijah Moore
CB Sauce Gardner
WR Garrett Wilson
EDGE Jermaine Johnson
And they have 38 overall coming up in R2. Masterpiece from Joe Douglas.
31
71
818
Nick Chubb's ranks since Carlos Hyde was traded (in Week 7):
• Carries: 128 (T-2nd)
• Team share of carries: 78% (1st)
• Rushing yards: 587 (5th)
• Yards after contact: 3.8 (2nd)
• Total TDs: 8 (T-4th)
16
143
773
Can't wait to see Duke Johnson dominate with a huge workload. Over last three years, Duke ranks...
• 2nd in yards per touch
• 2nd in % of carries to gain 10+ yards
• 4th in yards per route
• 9th in rush success rate from shotgun (HOU runs from shotgun at 4th-highest rate)
71
101
782
Cooper Kupp tore his ACL in mid-November last year. His start to 2019:
7/46 (10 targets)
5/120 (9 targets)
11/102/2 (12 targets)
9/121/1 (15 targets)
9/117/1 (17 targets)
24
77
782
Imagine if the Packers had a chance to draft a WR like Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman to help out Aaron Rodgers. Oh wait.
11
64
771
George Kittle: 6-4, 247lbs, 4.52 forty-yard dash (96th percentile weight-adjusted speed)
Noah Fant: 6-5, 243lbs, 4.51 forty-yard dash (96th percentile)
18
125
752
Top-5 QBs in catchable throw rate per
@FantasyPtsData
1. Aaron Rodgers (89.4%)
2. Tua Tagovailoa (87.8%)
3. Josh Allen (87.5%)
4. Kyler Murray (86.7%)
5. Daniel Jones (86.4%)
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106
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Most receptions in first three career seasons all-time:
1. Michael Thomas (321)
2. CMC (303)
T3. OBJ (288)
T3. Landry (288)
5. A.J. Green (260)
6. Boldin (259)
7. Kamara (243)
8. Hopkins (239)
T9. Mike Evans (238)
T9. Tomlinson (238)
11. Fitzgerald (230)
12. Moss (226)
12
91
756
Dan Quinn is forever in debt to Micah Parsons for all of these HC interviews he's getting.
27
34
763
George Kittle's 10.2 yards after the catch this year is the best figure for any WR or TE since the stat began being tracked in 2006.
15
120
756
I use a bunch of research sources. Here are some favorite free sites:
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@GrahamBarfield
Graham, you don't know me. So I understand if you don't reply. I wrote down most every metric you mentioned in the 2017 3 Stats From each team. To find them and use them to make myself better at fantasy football. Where can I find these metrics easily without exhaustiv search each
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18
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759
Patrick Mahomes’ $45M/year looks incredible in this market. KC enters free agency with the 10th-most cap space and 12 draft picks — plenty of ammo to re-build their defense.
10
53
769
It’s so funny to watch coaches scheme up Kupp, Jefferson, Adams, etc and make it look so easy…
Then you see how Matt Rhule uses D.J. Moore
24
50
766
CeeDee Lamb is on pace for 1,386 yards -- which would be most all-time for a rookie WR ahead of Anquan Boldin (1,377), Randy Moss (1,313), Odell Beckham (1,305), Michael Clayton (1,193) and Michael Thomas (1,137).
55
80
748