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Think gold’s topped out? To match the 1970s surge, bullion would need to rally another 550%. In today’s Haymaker Daily, we look at why Steve Hanke sees $6k gold, and why there are whispers about $10k.

75% of U.S. GDP growth this year may be from AI capex. That’s not hype, it’s math. If the bubble pops, the biggest hit might come not from layoffs or spending cuts.. …but from a stock crash hitting the top 10%’s wallets. 📉📈 Read more →

Trump’s gunning for Powell. Liquidity is surging. Commodities want out of their cage. The Fed’s independence is unraveling in real time, just as inflation starts rumbling again. Is The Big Easy making a comeback? 📩 This week’s Haymaker hits hard: https://t.co/895U34X15B

This signal has flashed only 2 times since 1960 Both times, stocks rose by +20% first, then crashed Things are about to get absolutely crazy A thread 🧵

Buckle up, y'all..

The Fed gave us a clear ‘signal’ that wasn’t ‘noise’ today. The 4.4% unemployment rate call for year-end would take it 100 basis points above the cycle low. Back to 1948, that has never happened without an NBER-defined recession. By the time the jobless rate rises this much,

Powell finally found the "stag" and the "flation": Fed cuts year-end GDP forecast from 2.1% to 1.7% Fed raises year-end core PCE forecast from 2.5% to 2.8% Fed raises year-end unemployment forecast from 4.3% to 4.4%

Over the next four years, $28 trillion of the $36 trillion National Debt matures. Financing current deficits will add another $10 trillion. There is no way the U.S. can sell $38 trillion of Treasuries with a 4% handle. So either we pay 6% or more, or the Fed has to buy it all.

Now there is another reason to bring manufacturing back to the United States. A lot of crypto millionaires are going to need jobs.

Reminder that: a) Stock comp at just 4 big tech co's alone (NVDA, GOOG, META, AAPL) = 10% of California's budget 👇 b) $65 oil is $25 < Saudi's fiscal breakeven. I.e., On current course, both California & Saudi will soon be competing with Bessent selling lots of LT USD bonds.

BREAKING: US dollar has just broken down from a head and shoulders topping pattern This could be a major tailwind for risk-on assets

Reagan could “front-load the pain” b/c his predecessors had already devalued US debt/GDP from 110% in 1946 to 55% by 1951 (via real rates that bottomed at -13%), & then down to 30% by 1980. “Front-loading the pain like Reagan” with 120% debt/GDP = economic amputation at the neck

Cold feet? US RE investors bought 47,004 homes in Q4, lowest level for that time of year since 2016 & down 3.9% YoY, biggest decline in a year...cautious about buying RE to flip & try to earn a profit. Rents have plateaued after apartment construction boom https://t.co/WN3lAPqOlo

Dear Switzerland, thank you for the gold avalanche. Oh, and all those who incorrectly claimed the physical gold scramble is just "tariff arbing" London and New York, good luck quietly deleting your posts

STILL blaming it on the weather. (Psst! Online spending tanked in January…) “Inflation-adjusted consumer spending fell 0.5%, marking the biggest monthly decline in almost four years amid extreme winter weather after a robust holiday season.” @business

if you think we are in a stock market correction now, just wait until credit spreads wake up. They haven't blinked yet. lol.

Gold tumbles to $2860, set for biggest weekly drop since November, even as raid on physical continues and is in fact accelerating as another 107k oz are delivered to Comex vaults, 55th consecutive day of physical deliveries.

Is THAT the tree that fell in the forest??

With this, we’ve surpassed two first months of 2024, with 29 filings of companies with $50M or more in liabilities (Count of filings in 2024 for all of 2024 was 28).

Retail investors have turned decisively bearish.