Michael J. Kramer
@MichaelMOTTCM
Followers
118,811
Following
620
Media
7,354
Statuses
25,921
You can visit my website to learn more about me and my Long-Only LT growth strategy. See disclosures in the link below
Garden City, NY
Joined February 2016
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Farage
• 414692 Tweets
David
• 244679 Tweets
Begoña
• 231801 Tweets
Sunak
• 197590 Tweets
Garland
• 164145 Tweets
#ITVDebate
• 129765 Tweets
Grabois
• 75973 Tweets
OBMEP
• 74213 Tweets
#loveIsland
• 70373 Tweets
Sinner
• 68831 Tweets
Halsey
• 67655 Tweets
Rihanna
• 54533 Tweets
Checo
• 49358 Tweets
Chainsaw Man
• 43192 Tweets
Fujimoto
• 37326 Tweets
Red Bull
• 37323 Tweets
Denji
• 33772 Tweets
Laporta
• 32513 Tweets
Bancolombia
• 29927 Tweets
Isabella
• 29165 Tweets
Yoru
• 23917 Tweets
#KohLanta
• 21357 Tweets
Alcaraz
• 19631 Tweets
TRES DE FEBRERO
• 18952 Tweets
#BorsadaVergiyeHayır
• 18730 Tweets
Bruno Fernandes
• 18407 Tweets
Beele
• 16640 Tweets
Peaky Blinders
• 15082 Tweets
Semih
• 13605 Tweets
Tsitsipas
• 11610 Tweets
William Russell
• 10831 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
For anyone curious, I posted this to my website, showing how 1Q'24 went for me. It is not a solicitation or offer to sell any product or service. Being transparent in how I use my own analysis.
0
3
29
This is an updated chart of the S&P 500 comparing 2008 vs. 2022
283
1K
6K
I guess it has come down to this... $VIX 2022 vs. 2008
282
560
3K
$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008 at some point, it will stop working.
238
465
3K
After many months of tracking the $VIX 2022 vs. 2008 analog, I think we can put it away. It was fun while it lasted.
263
259
3K
surprisingly, the rally this week in the
#sp500
matched the 2008 analog. This week is the pivotal week
185
428
2K
$vix 2022 compared to $vix 2008 with the 12-day shift.
99
372
2K
you can see the 2022
#sp500
bear market cycle is following those of 1937, 2000, and 2008 and based on this, we are due for new lows into October 25, with a short-term bottom around then, give or take a couple of days.
100
375
2K
This is an updated chart of the $VIX in 2008 vs. 2022
80
317
2K
The S&P 500 2022 vs. 2008 analog suggests the end of this year isn't going to be very good, and this rally is near its end.
#sp500
82
318
2K
106
364
2K
$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008. Based on the analog, the VIX could turn higher at any point from here.
89
279
2K
this is the S&P 500 2022 vs. 2008 analog for the week.
113
252
2K
$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008 analog still working, and watch what happens when I shifted it 12 days forward. The first chart is the one we have been tracking, and the second chart is with the 12-day shift
121
284
2K
this chart incredibly compares $nvda of today, with $nvda itself in 2008
90
213
2K
After many, many months of tracking the
#sp500
2022 vs. 2008 analog, unless something materially changes next week, it looks like this is broken too
215
193
1K
The VIX 2008 analog... either the timing has changed or it is broken
172
225
1K
I think the 2008 vs. 2022 analog on the
#sp500
shifted two weeks forward. I mentioned earlier this week it may have. Again this isn't meant to predict prices; it is meant to tell us if the
#bearmarket
cycle is still in play. For now, it still has a pulse.
104
236
1K
$SP500 - The Fed Needs To Send An Extremely Hawkish Message To Markets
178
192
1K
Now the market sees inflation at 2% by June. lol...
121
146
1K
Lots of bullish banter this weekend all over the web. The S&P 500 is 7.5% off the low, and if we had witnessed a real market bottom, nobody would be bullish & instead we would be talking about selling the rally. That's how u know the bottom is not in... Best of luck this week...
94
101
1K
I forgot to share the $vix of 2022 vs. the $vix of 2008
76
196
1K
The reserve balances held at the Fed dropped this week to $3.0 trillion, good luck....
55
182
1K
This is my new global liquidity model. Liquidity is leaving.
57
184
1K
So far, the move in the
#sp500
continues to play along with the 2008 version. The turn lower could happen around September 14, which is the day after CPI. But +/- a day or two won't matter. Anything can happen, I have no idea at this point.
75
180
1K
A stock market that rallies into the FOMC meeting next week is a signal to the Fed that a 50 bps rate is ok. $ndx
#stockmarket
136
103
1K
this week saw the Fed's balance sheet drop by almost $46 billion, the most yet.
56
198
1K
VIX/VVIX when it goes through the lower Bollinger Band has been associated with market tops in March and Aug
57
181
1K
80
204
1K
Based on this 2008 analog, we may get a bounce after the Fed meeting, but then it looks rough until October 24 +/- a day or two. $spx $spy
#sp500
51
179
998
Maybe the Fed should raise 50bps. Market seems fine.
115
58
949
Broadening wedge, two failed attempts at the downtrend, and the 200-day moving average. I do not see how that is bullish?
99
94
943
When the $VIX to $vvix ratio typically goes below its lower Bollinger band it coincides with market tops
68
172
921
The last few times the VIX was in the low 20s was in August and April at the Fed minutes release.
49
151
905
Thanks for all the support over the past week, I appreciate everyone that follows me. Tough week, with a lot of data to work through. I'm not always right, but I sure try my best.
85
10
908
$vix 2022 vs. $vix 2008 analog final update for the week
45
138
896
Bulls are trapped, with 4,200 being the level of the greatest call gamma. CTAs are almost finished, VIX OPEX tomorrow, and OI below 17 is nonexistent. Liquidity is draining, QE fantasy is over, odds of more rate hikes are building, and real yields swing higher.
124
122
876
What if this is just one massive bear pennant in the
#sp500
$spx... It looks like one to me.
120
94
858
$vix at lowest level since January 13, 2022... weird
95
89
849
Based on this data from Bloomberg not one stock in the
#dow
is down since October 12, which is mind-blowing.
87
103
848
I blocked more than 400 people today that used to follow me.
Thank you to those who appreciate the work and effort I put into this regularly, whether I am right or wrong.
117
9
841
3 rallies of 4% or more since mid-July, all with the same structure. We'll see if this one does the same.
67
144
840
Get a hot CPI report, and this could finish playing out by October 25 +/- a couple of days. We can worry about what happens next after that.
#sp500
2022 vs. 2008
51
123
824