EB (Viscount)
@EllliotttB
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Not Commercial Real Estate; Metaverse SMB search funder; Opinions are someone else’s
Los Angeles, CA
Joined April 2009
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Oh btw this is a cope if that wasn’t clear. My feed is basically a cope outlet
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But after fees and tip it’s like $4B
BREAKING: Uber's board of directors has approved a $2.65 billion acquisition of food delivery rival Postmates
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Imagine if San Francisco built an apartment building
Imagine if San Francisco had a sovereign wealth fund that had invested in all the top SF VC firms and paid out returns as cash to the city residents
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🔥🔥BOTTOM
not the bottom until someone posts a k-1 from a sponsor that requires coming out of pocket to pay taxes on a sale with zero proceeds because accelerated the crap out of depreciation and got zeroed
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My 7 year old overheard me tell my wife that we’re liquidating her 529 plan and taking penalty. She started to cry and didn’t understand why she couldn’t go to college. I slowly explained to her the recent ackman/higher ed saga. She put in an LOI on an hvac company today.
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can either get a salad delivered for lunch or fly to miami
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so the name of your company is "[XYZ] Capital Partners", but you don't have any money, and are in fact, looking for money
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The American dream is to be the first to securitize something
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My god how bad are earnings
Been driving latest Cybertruck prototype around Giga Texas. It’s awesome!
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One thing I’m not totally following here is if 128% is a worst year, and you use that worst year return every year and start investing in 1997 with $250,000, he should have $18T
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Chamath Individuals earning
$80,001/yr
🤝
Having a tough week
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High leverage multifamily buyers renovating 3 units and flipping to the next buyer
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4% mortgage rates?! Looks like I’m living in this bad boy for the next 29 years
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I mean I’m pretty sure value investors also haven’t had to pay taxes in years
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“Sorry, pal, swamped with requests to insert your purchase price into the template cover page and attach a lot of old maps and inapplicable demographics for a bank officer who needs to look at one page out of 400 for 3 seconds”
Appraisals are taking 4-5 weeks minimum right now. Everywhere. Sometimes longer
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kind of wonder what happens if I just put 100% net worth into a random piece of land off the highway halfway between the largest and second largest cities in a growing non-coastal state where the two cities are no greater than 75 miles apart and sit for 30 years
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Prob a few class B office owners who are fingers crossed for a midnight miracle
A large Chinese rocket that is reportedly out of control and set to reenter Earth's atmosphere is being monitored by the Pentagon.
@barbarastarrcnn
reports.
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It’s funny we’re talking about taxing unrealized gains while 1031 is a direct exemption to taxing realized gains
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This is great. The reit just drew a triangle and said 70% of the population lives there and it’s completely made up
"The Golden Triangle" in the USA:
(from Plymouth REIT deck)
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If someone has a small business that I can passively invest in for 30% annual returns on the low end, my DMs are wide open
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I’m sorry but the fact that millions of dollars worth of a thing can be lost because of a missing notepad and that thing is supposed to be not just a part of, but foundational to, a global financial ecosystem is incomprehensibly stupid
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So, so good that a16z top ticked the multifamily market
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All real estate is really just a microcap stock you can walk around in. Grim.
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Could I take a break from Twitter? Prob. Could I quit? I dunno
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omg L (and I literally cannot *possibly* stress this enough) MAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Not saying…just saying…
Prob more than one account that needs to be deleted 😂
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Amazon is a screaming buy imo (I’m buying more tomorrow morning)
AWS alone did $67B over the last 12 months/growing at 37%
Say that grows to $80B over next 12 months. Slap a P/S of 15 on AWS alone and it’s $1.2T
Rest of the biz is basically free 🤷♂️
Long $AMZN
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not the bottom until someone posts a k-1 from a sponsor that requires coming out of pocket to pay taxes on a sale with zero proceeds because accelerated the crap out of depreciation and got zeroed
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Birth rate going to zero
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Invests $1 million in SMBs at age 30 generating 30% cash on cash on low end, reinvesting distributions annually into more SMBs generating 30% cash on cash on low end, has $36 Billion by age 70 on low end
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I don’t think people really understand how early it still is in crypto.
Like, it could be 2030 and still there could be no good use cases, but that’s because 2030 is still early.
That’s how early 2022 is.
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Friendly reminder that a lot of investors followed Blackstone into EOP and hospitality investments in 2007 and Blackstone made money and everyone else went bankrupt and then Blackstone made money off them again
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I’m torn on the topic of DFW becoming the next NYC.
need to visit at least one or two more suburban shopping centers off a parkway with a regional tex mex chain and then I think I might have enough info to come to a conclusion
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Some particularly challenging days, I call my mentor Jon Gray (Blackstone) for advice.
Jon Gray (Blackstone) says to me, “EB who? How did you get my number? I gotta take this other call.”
And that’s all the motivation I need.
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One bright spot for office investors is the lenders don’t want your buildings either
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I still vividly remember thinking adults knew what they were doing
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<hires a single person remote>
Email Blast: Announcing the Grand Opening of Our New Denver Office
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They’re called shovel ready sites because what comes next is burying the equity
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My god, imagine how many k-1s
Girl from college posted that her husband has 85 $YETI items. Wut.
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How much of inflation fear is just attributed to people who push paper and look at beep boops on a screen for a living being afraid someone who does manual labor might close the income gap
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i don't like to brag but i own almost 250,000 apartment units
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What real estate investors need to realize right now is that during the last cycle, only investors who jumped in during the peak uncertainty of 2008-2011 made any money
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i know more about spurious causation/correlation chart crimes than probably any one person in the US.
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I’m in mexico, random americans with w2s are talking about their STRs and airdna as their side hustle
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Really gonna be wild when mortgage rates hit 7% and housing don’t stop because everyone buying their homes straight cash, except opendoor, whose carrying costs about to octuple
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hearing about this hedge fund ponzi with fintwit ties; scary but also makes me glad i'm part of the real estate community, where ponzis never happen and the scams are fully disclosed in the compensation section of the ppm
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lol - i mean look at these numbers. 2012 funds half realized, 2016 funds in the single digits and 5% distributed, 2017 industrial funds with zero distributions.
the only thing that matters is career risk on one side and fees on the other, nothing else.
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Very few things bring me as much pleasure as 50 yr old apartment complexes sandwiched between a gas station and fast food drive thru named like “Villas of Andalusia” or “Kensington Fountains”
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┏┓
┃┃╱╲ In
┃╱╱╲╲ this
╱╱╭╮╲╲ house
▔▏┗┛▕▔ we
╱▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔▔╲
Only Buy Stocks In Bankruptcy
╱╱┏┳┓╭╮┏┳┓ ╲╲
▔▏┗┻┛┃┃┗┻┛▕▔
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bought a shopping center today. let's hope people still like shopping.
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So basically a bunch of shitty businesses were always shitty businesses but for a while people made a lot of money in them so then people questioned themselves “is this in fact not a shitty business” but then turned out nope they were in fact shitty and then a bunch of people
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Real estate is a cash flow investment. you either buy CF or create something that generates CF.
There’s no TAM, pivot, yada yada.
Forget the goal is generate net, recurring CF (vs sell for higher price because someone paid that multiple before), you eventually lose. that’s it
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Once preferred equity is all the rage, and it hits the crowdfunding sites, and it’s on the podcasts, and Meet Kevin starts talking about equity like returns for debt like risk, it’s gonna be time to do equity lmao
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Wanna see securities investors do press releases like real estate peeps.
“Another flawless execution picking up 50,000 shares of $FB! proud to be part of
#teamzuck
. Kudos to machine no. 84NA in Jersey City for effortlessly settling the transaction. Now the real work begins.”
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The only market being “tanked” is a thin niche of ultraviolet multiples that provided a window thru which private market investors could pass their own exuberant valuations to the public; and now stuck holding bags full of ego, we shan’t reflect inward, but rather blame the fed
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Some hangar developer going to propose smaller units for smaller planes and the existing owners going to fight at planning commission about how that brings the wrong kind of plane owner to the community and will reduce existing hangar values
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Institutional LPs owning the same properties for decades through various GPs just trading back and forth is one of my fav dynamics - “wow great trade bob, you really knocked it out of the park!” “Thanks Jim you actually still own it, just through Phil now, thanks for the promote”
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the amazing thing about twitter existing during this last mania vs 01 and 08 is that it's all just so well preserved
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Boomers: if millenials weren't so lazy they could just go buy homes like we did
Also Boomers: no, you can't build more housing here and also, you can't buy mine because i'm selling it through an upreit structure into an SFR rental pool to avoid paying taxes
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I'm starting to take a look at buying an SMB.
not because it's a good idea, but so i can generate some smb
#content
which seems lucrative af
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Why does anyone even bother to do the value add on apartments anyways, just buy it, wait a few months for market rents to go up, and someone will pay you for the value add you didn’t do
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@ArtemTepler
find it a little rich to be talking about logical reasoning in reference to some of the most prolific pump and dump charlatans of our era whose only logical function is and has ever been “If(Thing will get followers and money), Then(Do Thing)”
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I am my own contra because I’m permanently scarred by my 2017-2019 thesis that real estate market would mostly move sideways with almost all return coming from cash flow and being so ultra wrong that I can never again trust the musings of the person in the mirror
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Dear Teachers of Arkansas - Congratulations on beginning your private real estate journey in 2009 and earning a <6 IRR and 1.2x multiple. The multi dimensional, variable impact cycle should produce some very compelling 20% underwritten, 4% realized opportunities to come.
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From now on when i’m asked what’s a fair fees/promote I’m gonna send this chart and point to total returns column - industrial delivered 20% total return compound for a decade and higher short term, storage close, apartments next - could have gotten that exposure anytime, liquid
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We should rebrand the zoning code as economic sanctions against the middle class
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