Danny Ocean
@DannyOcean555
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Generalist looking for a new seat | FCF per share | Slowly slipping down the quality spectrum
A Terry Benedict Casino
Joined June 2022
$JHX | $AZEK (Write up in bio link) JHX probably overpaid for AZEK in an empire building deal However, aggrieved former shareholders have hate-sold JHX down to an attractive level Transformational mergers are tough (read: a mess), but at 13.5x pro forma EBITDA, you don't need
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W I love this slide. The phrasing is fantastic. "Demonstrated *ability to operate* at 10% EBITDA margins in the past." Ability to operate =/= Ability to achieve & sustain Wayfair hit 10.2% margins for literally a single quarter* in the 11 years since its been public. All it
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PRMB “The banana.”
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I’ll be in midtown this Wednesday (10th) if anyone wants to grab a coffee/drink. Send me a DM Obligatory pic of the dog for attention (I tried putting the screen in front of his face- but he didn’t understand the weather radar & insisted we go out in the rain)
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HAYYP As a newly minted expert on the biz (I listened to the podcast while chasing my dog who was chasing deer)- Is HIMS or any telehealth platform a potential competitive risk? HIMS doesn’t offer nicotine now, but could spin/sell it as less harmful/cessation tool/etc
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FUN Quick sentiment check in- The Facebook groups are wondering where their season passes rank in the event of bankruptcy.
FUN A deeply serious mgmt team, back by an equally committed board. Rudderless ship = a real activist opportunity to select proper leadership. Nice opening for those who: A. Believe FUN can be salvaged B. Have requisite duration (2+ yrs) C. Don’t mind serious brain damage
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The real “NYC maximalist chicken” is a Pio Pio matador combo in a Murray Hill 2 bedroom flex.
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PTLO Nice Forbes profile on Dick Portillo & his rags to riches story Apparently, he seldom goes to the restaurants & his only involvement now is owning some of the underlying real estate He’s also worth more than the company’s current EV
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MGM $5 tables still exist on the strip? Really? Maybe for like two hands at 5 AM when the waitress aren’t sure whether to serve you booze or coffee.
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PRKS Approved new $500M bbk, allowing Hill Path to own up to 70% of common (not incl its swap) FCF generation over the next 2 yrs should be more than enough to fund the bbk At current prices, w/ ~another yr of FCF: HP could own >80% by EoY '28 So, what's the endgame here?
$PRKS Best value trap out there Bear case at this point is PRKS continues to repurchase shares until HP can raise a separate fund for a take private (assuming the long-term exasperated hedge fund shareholders capitulate & agree to the take under) Epic's a non-issue & lower per
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DKNG Sports betting via prediction markets is only popular where OSB is illegal- Prediction is an inferior model & product (no live betting, no absurd, addictive, high-hold innovations like "ghost parlays") So, will prediction markets' proliferation push states that are on the
DKNG | FLUT | RSI 1. Kalshi might capture some low value bettors, but the OSBs make their $ on whales that demand parlays, RT betting, perks/special offers, etc. As a generalist "prediction market", Kalshi is & will not be in a position to offer these sophisticated & high touch
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KRMN PT that’s 180x consensus ‘26 earnings & 65% higher than the current max target? Sure. Why not. Little downside to being wrong & the guy looks like a contrarian hero if this works even a little bit.
$KRMN "Nearly every launch vehicle that passes through the 62-mile-high Kármán line into space includes significant content from our company." This is a sweet biz - Highly diversified programs w/ 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 exposure to some of the best end markets in A&D: space, hypersonics
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NOMD Hmm A frozen food biz blaming predictable seasonal weather & a weak Serbian ice cream market as reasons for a miss & guide down is about where I draw the line.
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GPC Elliott w/ two board seats + likely a >5% stake (rumored >$1B position) Investor day in 2026: time to split the business?
$GPC "NAPA know how" just isn't as good as AZO or ORLY's jingles Coming off a tough year largely due to a weakening industrial end market. So, here's a story: Consensus (& mgmt) have long abandoned hitting the '25 targets (set March '23) in this calendar year. However,
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CSL Mildly interesting- Total authorization represents ~20% of shares outstanding Bought back ~12% of shares since the last 7.5M share increase in August ‘23 Plowing 100% of ‘25 FCF ($1B) into bbks this year ($700M YTD) At current prices, that’s another 2% of shares retired
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SN SharkNinja sells (& markets!) solutions- not products. Mark gets it.
SN Way late to this 1. Rather than trying to shoehorn recurring revenue into what is fundamentally an infrequent purchase (see COOK, GPRO)- SN managed to expand horizontally such that it can generate pseudo RR by cross selling existing customers on the next category of
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SHC “Reckless” is harsh/wrong (this needs to happen eventually) But, post IL settlement, anytime the stock’s sustainably >$14- Heads up!
@umamivalue @pekwat Pretty correct. GTCR & Warburg have been fairly reckless in their selling.
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CCRN Extending end date until December Still holding out the Aya tie up won’t be blocked…
CCRN | AMN Elsewhere in staffers If HCA/CYH/UHS etc. show similar bottoming to THC (or continued deceleration to the point where reported contract labor changes represent rounding rather than actual usage trends)- Then a CCRN flyer (either a small, straight long or hedged via
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LNW Briefly coming back to this w/ LNW @ 8.5x EBITDA- Have held the $1.4B '25 LT guide for a few years now, Grover acq. is additive (+$65M). No doubt multiple is partially a function of an H2 (& Q4) wgt guide (so, there's your soft clearing event) Don't need heroic net adds,
LNW Delisting its U.S. shares to exclusively trade on the ASX starting in November Leaving the U.S. ordinarily might see a derate w/ negative flows, but could this go the other way? Index inclusion + AUS institutional $ likes gaming (bc it’s not another miningCo or a bank)
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