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Scott Alexander's Best Essays
a collection of my favorite posts from 2009-2023
link:
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watching firefox's decline into irrelevance as mozilla focuses on sponsored content and pet projects has been a sad experience
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so mountain dew is using AI to track which twitch streamers drink mountain dew while live (1/2)
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heavenbanning, the hypothetical practice of banishing a user from a platform by causing everyone that they speak with to be replaced by AI models that constantly agree and praise them, but only from their own perspective, is entirely feasible with the current state of AI/LLMs
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now is a great time both to:
1) credit the 4chan poster from >10 years ago who predicted exactly this (see image) and
2) imagine what the rest of fortune 500 may think up once they discover huggingface exists and is free
source:
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palworld made $100m profit in 4 days by giving guns to pokemon while you were busy building your b2b ai saas with a hardware device no one wanted
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Google has already started forcing Web Integrity into Chromium despite it being a 'proposal'
With WEI, users can be denied access for using non-approved browsers or hardware
The open Internet is officially dead as soon as this is commonly implemented
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the best way to test if your encryption works is to check if the UK allows it or not
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had dinner with two google employees and they got into a bragging competition about who works fewer hours, the guy @ 2 hrs/day for 500k tc won
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Accurate Pose Estimation Via WiFi Signals
"our model can estimate the dense pose of multiple subjects, with comparable performance to image-based approaches, by utilizing WiFi signals as the only input"
arxiv:
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redditor works at nvidia for a decade, finds his net worth is now $30M
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softbank sold every nvidia share it had in 2019 for $3.6B (today's value: $93B)
investing in AI was one of the primary goals of the fund, which was the largest in history
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people are making entire music videos with sora
the lyrics are gibberish but still 🤯🤯🤯
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I had to double check all of these numbers because I found it hard to believe things have actually gotten this bad
can we just start over or something?
can't imagine something like the golden gate bridge being built within 4 years for the same price of some random SaaS series B
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Earnings: $5.15 EPS actual vs $4.64 expected.
Revenue: $22.10 billion actual vs $20.62 expected
Revenue up 265% from one year ago
Gross margin of 76%
Nvidia is God's chosen company
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found this great steve jobs clip
steve would like to remind you to send cold DMs and emails!!!
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casually watching the room-temperature superconductor evidence build up until it hits my "we're so back" threshold
alleged video, one more in thread
does this prove anything? does it suggest anything? i have no idea
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crazy how coinbase is one of the only reputable crypto exchanges left with their novel strategy of "wait for everyone else to go to jail"
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imagine joining a google meet call and it’s the entire board of directors minus your single best ally
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wait sorry i forgot to include the part where if you remove the mountain dew can they ask you to put it back
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@fawwazanvilen
I'd hate to make a meme without proper inflation adjustment, let alone without a list of citations for the numbers
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this is absolutely mindblowing
AI-transformed video + audio (
@koe_recast
+ Stable Diffusion img2img + EbSynth)
all quickly made by a single person for free!
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tried to explain what salesforce does to a friend last night
was making progress until i realized 79,000 people work there and then i kinda gave up
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basically half of twitter is one guy saying ∃x : y and then everyone quote tweeting them with BUT ¬(∀x : y)!!!!
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installed firefox on a new box
launched at like 1/3rd the speed chrome does
showed a bunch of built-in ads and clickbait, asks you to buy mozilla vpn and use pocket, comes with a backdoor, etc
I feel like mozilla focused on everything except the one thing that truly mattered
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referring to AI models as "just math" or "matrix multiplication" is as uselessly reductive as referring to tigers as "just biology" or "biochemical reactions"
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PLEASE USE GOOGLE BARD
PLEASE USE IT IT'S JUST LIKE CHATGPT I PROMISE
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"almost 98% of people in the world will try to pull [your ambition back] and say 'seems a little bit too crazy, a little bit too out there, a little bit too ambitious"
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signal spends $6M/yr just to verify phone numbers during signup - almost half their entire budget!
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although the above article is fake (hence my phrasing as a 'hypothetical' and the article being dated in the future in 2024!), it's feasible to build this as a weekend project at this point, so it won't remain fake for very long now!
countless fun utopic/dystopic futures ahead!
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United Airlines would save $80M/yr if the average passenger weight falls by 10lbs due to Ozempic
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@SrdjanMiletic1
yes, it says so next to the $700M figure but in smaller text
Wikipedia listed "$550M in 2021 dollars" which was tempting to use, but my own calculations put it just above $700M in 2023
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great quote from karpathy
most great organizations require leader(s) with a disproportionate amount of power
when this is absent you end up with countless hierarchies of ineffective committees, e.g. many google products lack a Directly Responsible Individual with actual power
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there are people spending their free time building gpus w/ cuda inside of minecraft, spending months optimizing the flops on their factorio mega-computers, and implementing the linux kernel within a shader inside vrchat
yet you still "cannot find the talent you need to hire" huh
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AI startups actually have a very strong moat
we simply refer to it as "python virtual environment" and "cuda version"
most of your competitors will give up before they get past this step
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anyway so i have a script that watches public company CEOs on twitter and if they change their profile picture to e.g. a wizard it places a market order for the stock
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Zip-NeRF: Anti-Aliased Grid-Based Neural Radiance Fields
this is not a recorded video - it is fully rendered from a neural model!
uses ideas from rendering+dsp to improve nerfs, training 22x faster than mlp-nerf 360
arxiv:
page:
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Prompt Engineering
an overview of prompt engineering, including in-context learning, chain-of-thought, automatic prompts, retrieval, and tools, with many arxiv references
blogpost:
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so, Microsoft rushed a ship of the most powerful AI model ever exposed to end-users,
having done very little red-teaming or testing,
which was blatantly and aggressively misaligned and manipulative,
and for the openly-stated purpose of forcing competitors to speed up AI 1/N
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hard to believe that the AI model that can produce these images along with billions of others, using only a few seconds on consumer hardware, is about to be released out into the world forever
things will really, really never be the same after this
#StableDiffusion
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my largest tech disappointment over the last decade is that as surveillance has gotten 10x worse people seem to care even less than before
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sam once drank from my diet coke can, and after I confronted him about this directly he told me I could "take another one - they're free". he said he was sorry but i could tell he didn't mean it
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so
@elonmusk
now that twitter blocks all requests that are not logged in, tweets can no longer be embedded in most chat apps
I'd strongly suggest reconsidering the UX+growth tradeoffs made here (take note how tiktok, youtube, etc, do *not* need this despite much higher b/w req!)
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it may be useful to establish a "proof of humanity" word, which your trusted contacts can ask you for, in case they get a strange and urgent voice or video call from you
this can help assure them they are actually speaking with you, and not a deepfaked/deepcloned version of you
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do you guys realize how much world GDP was saved due to all of this happening over the weekend
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openai employee next to me staring at slack constantly reacting with a 👎 to like sixty posts
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when someone asks me which of my startup's AI products weren't killed by openai today
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facebook shipping AI stickers to 1,000,000,000 MAUs is the type of bravado other incumbents wish they had
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many smart wonderful people are trapped in bad parts of the internet because they don't know how to find the good parts
under-discussed b/c those of us in the good parts don't realize how vast the bad parts are, and those of us in the bad parts don't know good parts even exist
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last year chatgpt saved me 100% on my taxes but this time we are gonna shoot for 110% with claude
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@RepRashida
It takes more than 200 bangers per month to make the equivalent of a $15/hour job on twitter, and the vast majority of poasters never get to that number.
I will create the Living Wage for Poasters Act to fight for the fair pay that we deserve
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sergey brin being a core contributor on the gemini paper is peak technical founder
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can you guys stop using ChatGPT so much please
it's responding too slowly now
the 50 people I just hired to use it full time are all complaining
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will try to tl;dr my answer:
ai is a force of extreme empowerment. currently it seems like many AI tools will be broadly available for anyone to use. many people refer to this as the 'democratization' of technology.
however! the outcomes that occur when you give everyone access…
does anyone want to explain to me, in good faith and in detail, why they think there’s only 3-5 years to own capital/escape the underclass. please give me a little more than “the singularity”
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@mayfer
the nets were voted to be built in 2008, which seems to make it even worse (15 years!!!)
it now seems like everyone is suing each other and is quite upset
so I assume at this point half is going to lawyers and many random govt bodies I haven't heard of
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new OpenAI Codex demo: solving complex problems with multiple iterations, result checking, and thorough comments
programming will be disrupted just as much as image creation!
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as much as this is obviously an outlier, few people in America understand that a FAANG career of 10-30 years can leave you with $5-30M
interesting that the perceived epitome of US financial elite is still bankers, landlords, and CEOs rather than average SWEs that stick with it
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AI can now transform voices in real-time with latency as low as 60ms on cpu!
website:
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gpt-4 has utterly failed to solve every millennium prize problem i've thrown at it
when will we stop hyping up these 'intelligent' models?
i am out $20 with no prizes to my name!
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the above page is from the mozilla foundation's nonprofit, which is a separate entity from the for-profit mozilla corporation, which collects 9 figures of revenue per year from including google as all of the defaults in their browser
I just wish it had remained competitive tbh
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Sam Altman was also surprised that no one built ChatGPT before OpenAI:
"we had the model for ChatGPT in the API for ~10 months before we made ChatGPT ..
I sort of thought someone (else) was gonna just build it"
(reminder: there are *many* similarly unbuilt products right now)
ChatGPT capabilities have (mostly) been out for a year, in some cases >2 years
UX + accessibility, however, is now much better with an open chatbot UI
interesting to watch how drastic the change in reactions+usage is as a result
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: daily arxiv paper summaries with instant search, convenient links, and images
I made this in a single day with chatgpt for fun
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heard a rumor that several seed-stage AI investors were wiped out last night
all thirteen of their ChatWithMyPDF investments marked to zero - what a time to be alive, wow
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playing w/ openai sora more this weekend
broken physics and english wont matter if the content is this good - hollywood may truly be done for
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that “AI Safety” means “do not say mean words and false things” to some groups and “let’s try to stop humanity from going extinct soon” to others is the largest lexicographical mistake in human history
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you ever have such a bad time writing javascript that chatgpt straight up tells you to get a therapist
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"what did you work on during humanity's most important decade (2020-2029) ?"
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A Practical Deep Learning-Based Acoustic Side
Channel Attack on Keyboards
correctly identifies 93% of keystrokes via sounds over zoom calls
(reminder: scaling laws apply to ~every modality)
arxiv:
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hypothetical Marvel supervillains made with
#stablediffusion
amazing level of creativity+detail from modern AI models
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