Donald Schneider
@DonFSchneider
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Deputy Head of US Policy at Piper Sandler. Tweets on public policy and the economy. Formerly Chief Economist @waysandmeansgop. Personal views only.
Washington, DC
Joined October 2012
It seems extremely unlikely, if not impossible, for the Senate to process a government funding bill on the floor this week. Without unanimous consent, and depending on how the CR vehicle is structured, it’ll take multiple procedural votes and a lot of floor time.
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Not sure how much to read into this yet. YoY can be fraught with this data. I use 20day rolling sum (approx 1 month) vs 24 levels. So far no cause for concern. And i imagine Oct weakness vs Oct24 is partly reflection of govt shutdown & missing paychecks https://t.co/8bheWqo55p
To quote that famous economist, Scooby Doo: "Ruh, roh!" Ok - this looks worse than it actually is for 2 reasons: 1) The Fed employment tax numbers are a drag this month (obviously!). Private sector/local/state govt employment taxes are down -4.8% ex the Fed numbers. 2) Timing.
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This is not an apology, at all. He doesn't take back anything he said. He doesn't criticize Tucker Carlson. He just says he was misunderstood while reiterating all the same nonsense about cancel culture, which is a total red herring.
Remarks from @KevinRobertsTX at a Monday night speech at Hillsdale College on antisemitism and cancel culture.
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As @petereharrell has elsewhere argued, and I have written, if SCOTUS says "regulate" imports under IEEPA' includes tariffs, it would include any kind tax. A future president could declare a climate emergency originating abroad and impose a carbon tax under IEEPA.
wsj.com
If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the president on tariffs, it could greenlight his raising other new tax revenue without Congress.
What I’ll be watching for at Wednesday’s blockbuster Supreme Court hearing on Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, beyond the obvious vote counting: (Brief case recap at the bottom of the post). 1. FIRST KEY ISSUE: Do (m)any Justices look for a compromise position? My view remains that
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Very cool JMP by @ppcreanza: the Gilded Era merger wave didn't kill innovation, it turbo boosted it. Large scale consolidation in early 20th century enabled large industrial labs, lower cost of capital, and more breakthrough patents https://t.co/Jy2H37Bkme
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If we want to protect central bank independence, and many economists agree that CB independence makes for better macro-economic outcomes, then it is imperative not to color outside the lines.
I am deeply grateful to be recognised on the third annual #TIME100Climate list. At the @ecb, we show that accelerating the clean energy transition is essential for a secure, sustainable and affordable future for Europe, and for safeguarding our price stability mandate.
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“A philosophy of no enemies to the right would cost Republicans elections and endanger the country. Builders of the conservative movement like Heritage’s Ed Feulner knew that. So did Buckley.”
wsj.com
Kevin Roberts of the Heritage Foundation flounders in the Tucker Carlson-Nick Fuentes fever swamps.
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This graph has been floating around every couple months, arguing that the top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumption. Anyone familiar with economic statistics should intuitively feel it must not be right. So I dug into it a bit, and indeed, it's (mostly) not.
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Outstanding NR editorial. Share it. Circulate it. It’s time to choose. And that includes every candidate for public office. The 2028 GOP presidential primary will be decisive. https://t.co/5qxZDPFRnb
nationalreview.com
Tucker Carlson’s friendly interview with Nick Fuentes makes it impossible to ignore the right’s festering antisemitism problem.
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Well done, @tedcruz
JUST IN: Ted Cruz BLASTS Kevin Roberts’s Tucker Carlson defense: “Now is a time for choosing. If you sit there with someone who says Adolf Hitler was very cool and that their mission is to defeat ‘global Jewry,’ and you say nothing, then you are a coward, and you are complicit
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Sen. Fetterman: “I'm apologizing that, that we can't even get our shit together and just open up our government.” On Schumer’s claim that things are better every day for Ds: “Ask the hungry people on Saturday…This is not some shitty game show about who's winning or whatever.”
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Actual data here
CHAMATH: “You think the BBB was a giveaway to rich folks? No taxes on tips, extending the Trump tax cuts that disproportionately affected middle income folks. Those are giveaways to rich people?” BUTTIGIEG: “Yes.”
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Meta ensnared by the corporate AMT. Garbage tax policy. A shame it wasn't repealed in OBBBA (yes limited fiscal space, but it's going to be years before another opportunity comes to clean up the code)
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If true, seems we are effectively going to dismantle the export control regime on AI chips just as Beijing builds out its regime on rare earth minerals and magnets.
Hearing BIS has already been instructed to approve licenses to sell the B30A to China, am that some BIS staff are considering resigning over the decision. Also hearing that there is no quid pro quo just a favor to Xi and Jensen Huang…
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Actions meet consequences for the most pointless and cynical shutdown ever. Easy to get into a shutdown. Harder to exit and save face.
Lapse of SNAP benefits this weekend is prompting soul searching within Senate Dem caucus amid broader fight for ACA tax credits “How am I supposed to choose between those two constituencies?” Warnock asked https://t.co/Qf92gl1xQR
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China promised to accelerate granting of licenses of rare earth mineral exports to the US as part of this summer's trade truce. THEY LIED! There have been NO EXPORTS of rare earths to the US since May, just exports of magnets, which does nothing to alleviate our dependency on
China has not exported rare earth compounds or metals in tariff lines fully covered by export controls to the United States since April 2025. While attention has focused on magnets, compounds and metals are also critical for U.S. industries. See Silverado’s new infographic 👇
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"Stop trying to negotiate. Open the government. Then we'll talk about whatever you want to talk about." - @ChrisMurphyCT, 2019
Republican demands to end the shutdown keep changing - by the hour - because they know they've completely, totally, and convincingly lost this debate with the American public. Stop trying to negotiate. Open the government. Then we'll talk about whatever you want to talk about.
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Allowing China to purchase some of our best AI chips is akin to allowing Iran to purchase enriched uranium. Literally arming the enemy and ensuring we lose the AI race!
The China-specific AI chip that's reportedly on the table is being marketed as "50% worse" than our best AI chips. In reality, pound-for-pound, it's our best AI chip.
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I worked for Sen. Thune for three years and I never once heard him raise his voice or get this angry. Democrats picked the wrong Senate Majority Leader to play political games with.
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Fascinating.
#BREAKING: Republicans' polling has improved during Democrat government shutdown CNN: "The Republican brand in Congress has actually improved" incl. with Independents 📈 Plus alarm bells for Democrats: "The worst position Democrats have been…in the last 20 years" 🚩
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