Dmitri Alperovitch
@DAlperovitch
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Geopolitics/NatSec, Russia, China, Cyber. Chairman @SilveradoPolicy; Author WorldOnTheBrink; Host @GeopolDecanted; Founder @alperovitch; Co-Founder @CrowdStrike
Joined June 2011
Very proud to have my #WorldOnTheBrink with @vermontgmg named as one of the best books of 2024 by the @TheEconomist!
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There are many people right now who are arguing that Putin has somehow changed/lost it/gone mad and is not the man he used to be. I couldn't disagree more. They have simply not been paying attention. This is who he has *always* been 🧵.
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Zelensky tonight: “If you want to know what Russia is planning, look at what Russia is accusing others of planning to do” . (referencing the false accusations that Ukraine is building biological weapons and planning chemical weapons attack).
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For the first time in 22 years, I am actually starting to believe that Putin’s hold on power may be on shaky ground. Not because of some Plpeople’s uprising—that’s a fanciful dream—but because there is now a small but non-zero chance of a palace coup 🧵.
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For all the fears over the last nearly 10 years about the Russian hybrid/information warfare capabilities and troll armies, they have completely lost the information war over this invasion of Ukraine.
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Zelensky throwing serious shade tonight:.“You know they (Russians) used to talk about their biggest dream: to see Paris and die… their dream now is to steal a toilet and die"
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Now that the Russians have switched tactics from pursuing a rapid victory on the cheap (failed miserably) and reverted to the mean of leveling Ukrainian cities to the ground like they did with Grozny and Aleppo, the goals of the operation are likely changing as well 🧵.
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In the last few weeks, I have become increasingly convinced that Kremlin has unfortunately made a decision to invade Ukraine later this winter. While it is still possible for Putin to deescalate, I believe the likelihood is now quite low. Allow me to explain why 🧵.
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All 4 major international oilfield servicing firms have now left Russia: Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International. Russia will struggle with exploration and servicing of fields without them. China cannot substitute for that lost expertise and tech.
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Incredible drone video of a Russian tank column ambush reportedly from 6th regiment near Brovary Region, Kyiv oblast. The audio looks to be an intercept of a Russian officer calling superiors to report the ambush and death of regiment commander
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Like US DEFCON levels, Russia has a number of readiness levels: .1. CONSTANT.2. ELEVATED .3. MILITARY DANGER .4. FULL. Putin ordered nuclear forces to ELEVATED level today. Concerning but not cause for panic yet.
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Maker of Russian Ladas shuts down automotive production line due to the inability to procure semiconductors (US Foreign Product Rule in action). Expect major impact on Russian defense and space production as well.
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Tough message from Zelensky tonight about discovered atrocities in Ukraine: . “This is how the Russian state will now be perceived. This is your image. Your culture and human appearance perished together with the Ukrainian men and women to whom you came”
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Mayor of Kyiv Klitchko reports that Kyiv is now surrounded making further evacuation of civilians impossible.
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4 possible ways this war ends in order of likelihood:.1. Long term fight/insurgency with destruction of Ukrainian cities.2. Putin declares limited demilitarization/“denazification” victory and pulls out.3. Zelensky compromises on NATO and Crimea.4. Putin replaced in palace coup.
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One month into Russia’s war on Ukraine, it is worth stepping back and taking stock of the geopolitical results for Russia thus far 🧵.
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With that success his appetite has only grown which led us to this disastrous invasion of Ukraine. In summary, this is not a man who has somehow changed and all of a sudden has become reckless. He has always been this way. Many for decades just tried hard not to notice. END.
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Ukrainians come out with flags and shouting “fascists” at Russian forces in Svobody (Freedom) Square in occupied Kherson today
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If you think photos from #Bucha are sickening, just wait for Mariupol. Kadyrov’s Chechens leading much of the assault there are not known for their gentle approach and deep respect for the Geneva conventions. Yes, it can and almost certainly will get much worse.
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#Dugin assassination updates:.- Reports that surveillance cameras in the parking lot near the explosion had been disabled for last 2 weeks.- Car was owned by Daria, not Dugin.- Bomb was under driver’s seat. Looks like a professional hit and she may have been the target after all.
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Prediction: Turkey is going to have some really good years ahead selling lots of TB2 drones around the world.
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What’s more is they now realize that the sanctions will not end no matter what happens in Ukraine now while Putin is in power. That is why personal sanctions on him were so symbolically important.
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Lukashenko says Belarus forces will not join the war:.“I want to emphasize once again that we are not going to get involved in this operation that Russia is conducting in Ukraine. The most important thing, as I tell those of you in the military, is that there is no need for that".
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Russian Duma passes a law criminalizing distribution of “fake news” about the Russian military with up to 15 years in prison. Calling for people to attend anti-war protests in Russia will now carry a penalty of up to 5 years in prison. Repression in Russia accelerating rapidly….
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Some foreign policy prognosticators prior to the war were claiming that if Russia is allowed to invade Ukraine, our deterrence of the Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be weakened. I actually think the reverse is true now 🧵.
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Still a very small chance that this will actually happen but it is much higher than it was before February 24th. END.
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The economic sanctions and diplomatic isolation of Russia is going to be very severe and will impact not just the well-known oligarchs, but many in the intelligence and military circles who have been personally enriching themselves under Putin’s regime for decades.
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Zelensky in tonight's message: 'Any war ends in an agreement. Meetings (with Russia) continue. As I am told, the positions in the negotiations sound more realistic. However, time is still needed for the decisions to be in Ukraine's interests' 🧵.
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A number of Russian oligarchs, actors, TV personalities, etc are coming out against this war on a scale we really haven't seen since at least the First Chechen War in the 1990s.
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And the longer it goes on, the more precarious Putin's position will become domestically. A palace coup is going to become increasingly likely over time
For the first time in 22 years, I am actually starting to believe that Putin’s hold on power may be on shaky ground. Not because of some Plpeople’s uprising—that’s a fanciful dream—but because there is now a small but non-zero chance of a palace coup 🧵.
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Given that Russians had a year+ to plan this invasion, they are screwing up pretty badly on a number of fronts. A lot of improvisation (see airborne). Logistics are a mess. Air supremacy hasn’t been achieved. Now having said all that—it’s day 2 and they are at the gates of Kyiv. .
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Governor of Russian Belgorod oblast is confirming damage to Russian railroad tracks near Ukrainian border
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The much delayed Putin TV address is here. Live tweeted summary is below 🧵
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Of course, tragically, it will also mean tens of thousands of dead civilians and unimaginable destruction in Ukraine. END.
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Ukrainian psychological warfare is impressive.
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry is apparently launching a hotline for the mothers of Russian soldiers captured or killed in #Ukraine.
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This is the man who almost certainly ordered the use of radioactive polonium in an assassination of a critic in central London in 2006, leaving radioactive traces all over London (and on 221 flights of contaminated aircraft) .
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The unpopularity of this war inside Russia (not to mention the universal international outrage) is going to multiply dramatically with each coming day (along with casualties).
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Putin has also physically isolated himself to extreme extent due to his COVID fears (there is a theory that he is also unvaxxed which is contributing to his fear of getting sick).
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This is just a short highlight reel of a long list of examples I could cite. This is a man who has always been a reckless risk-taker, one who is not afraid to make big bets. And he has been exceptionally lucky and mostly avoided any significant consequences. until now.
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It really does appear to be the case that despite a meticulous 1 year build up of the biggest invasion force Europe has seen in 50+ years, no one bothered to tell anyone down the Russian chain of command about what they were going to be doing and why up until the last minute 🧵.
Absolutely stunning lack of communications security on the part of the Russian military - using insecure comms that can be easily listened to.
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This is the man who ordered a second invasion of Chechnya in 1999, only 3 years after Russian military suffered a humiliating and devastating loss there, .which nearly ended Yeltsin's presidency - a highly risky move with uncertain outcome at the time.
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If at the start Putin was trying to go for a quick decapitation of Ukrainian leadership and installation of a pro-Russian leader (eg Medvedchuk), that seems completely unrealistic now (if it ever were) since he has pretty much turned the entire Ukrainian population against Russia.
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So one can see a scenario where some people from the siloviki faction will decide that they’ve had enough of the old man and it’s time to put him out to pasture and try to get a detente with the West that is now all but impossible under Putin’s rule.
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No, Lavrov did not threaten nuclear war in today’s interview. Quite the opposite. He said: “Nuclear war is unacceptable, this is Moscow's principled position” 🧵.
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This is the man who ordered a risky takeover of Crimea in 2014, redrawing borders in Europe via military force.
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Putin on his endgame: . “They [the West] say that they want to achieve the strategic defeat of Russia on the battlefield. What does this mean for Russia? For Russia, this means the end of its statehood. This means the end of the 1000-year history of the Russian state. I think
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This is the man who almost certainly ordered GRU to interfere in US elections in 2016 and French elections in 2017, operations that could have backfired badly for him.
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NordStream pipeline destruction story:. Zelensky initially approved the plan, according to one officer who participated and three people familiar with it. But later, when the CIA learned of it and asked the Ukrainian president to pull the plug, he ordered a halt. Zaluzhniy, who.
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The seizures of oligarch properties overseas have begun.
Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov's 512-foot yacht has been seized by German authorities in the northern city of Hamburg.
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Russians occupying southern city of Kherson are reportedly trying to call a referendum to establish a new statelet: Kherson National Republic (like DNR and LNR). Today 44 (out of total 64) members of the Kherson Oblast Council proclaimed that Kherson is part of Ukraine.
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Lavrov: “Any cargo that contains weapons for Ukraine will become a legitimate target for Russia”. RU will likely start hitting convoys coming in from Poland soon. They will find it difficult to differentiate trucks with humanitarian aid from those with weapons, so will hit all.
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This is the man who almost certainly ordered the use of chemical weapons to assassinate a former GRU spy in Salisbury, UK in 2018, killing an innocent bystander in the process.
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Zelensky in last night’s address: “The 22nd day of our struggle against one of the world’s largest armies has ended. An army, which we are making smaller every day. Every day”.
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Thus, Putin is going to need a resolution to the war in the next few weeks or it will create serious problems for him domestically.
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I am going to go out on a limb here and make a prediction that Putin will not do a full mobilization call on May 9th or anytime in the near future. I could be wrong and I don’t have as much confidence in this call as I did in my invasion prediction back in December 👇 but… 🧵.
In the last few weeks, I have become increasingly convinced that Kremlin has unfortunately made a decision to invade Ukraine later this winter. While it is still possible for Putin to deescalate, I believe the likelihood is now quite low. Allow me to explain why 🧵.
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A month ago on this site I predicted that Putin is likely to invade Ukraine this winter. Since then the White House, among others, have come out with a similar assessment. Let’s talk now about how such invasion may unfold and what its primary goals might be 🧵.
In the last few weeks, I have become increasingly convinced that Kremlin has unfortunately made a decision to invade Ukraine later this winter. While it is still possible for Putin to deescalate, I believe the likelihood is now quite low. Allow me to explain why 🧵.
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He also doesn't have the time to engage in a brutal occupation given the internal pressures that are already starting to materialize inside Russia.
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This is the man who ordered a highly risky military intervention in Syria to save Bashar Assad in 2015, at the time when many (wrongly) thought it was a futile endeavor and one that would drag Russia into a quagmire.
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Let’s talk about the state of the war and one of the most underreported yet crucially important issues: . Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports and resulting strangulation of the country’s economy 🧵.
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His problem is that it's highly unlikely that Zelensky and the rest of the Ukrainian leadership would accept these conditions so the war and the insurgency that will follow it can drag out for a long time.
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This is the man who almost certainly ordered the use of chemical weapons to assassinate his political opponent in 2020 (and perhaps a few times earlier too).
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Putin also can't pull back now without losing face - having talked about Ukraine (with its mythical nuclear weapons) as an existential threat to Russia. Now that he has already incurred the severe economic sanctions costs and diplomatic isolation, he has to show something for it.
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It’s really important not to engage in mirror-imaging in intl relations. Too many people assume that Putin is looking at this war as being lost. I don’t believe he thinks that at all yet. He obviously knows it hasn’t gone to plan but has no reason to believe he is losing 1/2.
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This is the man who almost certainly green-lighted an assassination of a former Chechen militant in broad daylight in the center of Berlin in 2019.
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I wish ppl writing countless op-eds demanding negotiations to end the war would explain:. A) What concessions they want to offer Putin and why he would accept them. B) How they plan to get Ukrainians to accept surrender of their land after they’ve lost so many ppl defending it.
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Putin's only hope now is likely to rapidly unleash utter brutality on the Ukrainian people (which he has already started on by shooting MLRS rockets into Kharkiv and other cities) in order to get major concessions from Zelensky in the negotiations.
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Think about it - the US government knew more about Russian invasion plans of Ukraine than Russian military lieutenants, sergeants and privates.
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Putin will try to spin these gains as a victory but it is undoubtedly a huge strategic loss for Russia and himself personally. END.
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Putin's minimum bar for a negotiated solution now would likely be Ukraine conceding Crimea to Russia, agreement to never join NATO and EU and some form of demilitarization (eg. no NATO infrastructure in Ukraine).
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Russians are encountering considerably more resistance than they appear to have been expecting. Crimean thrust is the only one that’s making substantial progress. Airborne attack ended in disaster. But Ukrainians are also taking heavy losses. And it’s only the first 24 hours….
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There is a lot of current discussion about the types of severe sanctions that the US would place on Russia in the event of invasion, but not as much about how Russia can hit back at the US and European economies in response 🧵.
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Map of Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian targets. All military airports are apparently destroyed
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Continuing the great tradition of top notch OPSEC that the Russian military has established in this war, Kadyrov on his daily Telegram video shows operational maps he says he has just received from his commanders
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Putin articulated his ultimatums for Kyiv:.- Recognize Crimea as Russian.- Rejection of NATO accession .- No weapons supplies from the West.- LNR and DNR gain territory that the regions had pre 2014. Last one particularly interesting: suggests he intends to keep DNR/LNR around.
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Thus, not only has Putin NOT solved his ‘Ukraine problem’, but he has made it permanently worse for himself/Russia by turning the country and its people into a long-term enemy for Russia. And he has paid an enormous price for that miscalculation.
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Foreign luxury brand stores are closed/empty in Moscow’s historic TsUM department store
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And Putin's speech is done. Summary: immediate partial mobilization of those with military expertise. Bashing of the West and Ukrainian 'neo-Nazis'. And some not so oblique nuclear threats . END.
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EU Head of Foreign Affairs @JosepBorrellF: .“We cannot block the reserves of the Russian Central Bank in Moscow. Or In China. In the last year Russia has been placing their reserves in places where we can’t block them. Russia has been preparing for sanctions financially".
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Zelensky in address tonight: 'Today, Russian troops are, in fact, one of the suppliers of equipment to our army. They could not imagine such a thing in a nightmare'.
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Russian General Staff has been planning this invasion for a long time - at least a year, maybe more. Ukraine is now improvising a response, while the Russian military is destroying their Air Defenses and Command & Control nodes. This is not going to be a fair fight :(.
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Putin signs a law to prohibit people from leaving the country with more than $10k in foreign currency. Trying to prevent capital flight….
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Lavrov is not wrong here. That is indeed the goal of sanctions/economic boycott in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The only thing he forgot to mention is that they are actually working.
FM #Lavrov: The goal of #sanctions is more strategic than just #Ukraine. It is quintessence of West’s strategic course to marginalise, contain #Russia, stop our development & reduce 🇷🇺 to zero role in world politics, economy and trade, world sports, art, science and education.
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It is interesting that people think that Putin is irrational for launching a disastrous and doomed war in Ukraine but they don't think that the US is irrational for launching and then continuing for 20 years doomed wars in the Middle East. .
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Fascinating strategy by DoD to publicly say that Putin does not know the full extent of what is going on with his own military.There is probably no bigger insult for Putin, a former KGB agent, than to say he is misinformed. Likely much worse than being called a “butcher” for him.
John Kirby, the Pentagon spokesman, said the Defense Department believed that President Vladimir Putin of Russia had not been given an accurate account of his army’s failures in Ukraine.
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He is one month into the war today. 2nd Chechen War—a much smaller country with a fraction of population—lasted almost a decade. Major combat went for almost a year. He is in for the long haul and is not as impatient as many Western observers/media who expect rapid results 2/2.
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As horrible as today was for Ukraine today, the sliver of good news here is that Russia likely can’t sustain this rate of missile launches. It’s very telling that they have not had this rate of long range fires since the start of the war.
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May 9 parade in Moscow and Putin’s speech is over. As expected, no declaration of war, victory or general mobilization.
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One thing to keep in perspective: Yes, the Russians are having a lot of problems but it’s day 3 of the war. On day 3 of the war in 2003, Jessica Lynch and her convoy had been captured by Iraqi forces and there was a lot of media commentary then of how the US was losing the fight.
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This Proud Boys spoofed email campaign in Florida that the US Government has just publicly attributed to Iran is probably the fastest ever public disclosure of attribution intelligence ever made by the US. It took literally hours for press conference vs months/years in the past. .
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The West-Russia economic & diplomatic decoupling that is underway right now is completely without historical precedent for such a large ($1.5 trillion) and relatively integrated economy as Russia's. And sanctions aren't even the main cause of it 🧵.
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It’s very clear now that the decision to launch the war was Putin's and his alone. And that decision, as well as the utter incompetence with which it had been prosecuted, ended up being a complete disaster for the Russian state.
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Quite the opposite. By valiantly withstanding his military assault, Ukraine has won the ability to remain squarely pro-Western in its geopolitical orientation.
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The psychological element of this cannot to be underestimated. Ukraine—Eastern and Southern one in particular—looks like Russia. People speak Russian. Babushka on the street looks like a soldier’s grandmother. Without proper indoctrination, it’s very demoralizing to fight there.
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Russians took Zmiinyi Island today. Transcript of the radio comms:. - I am Russian warship. Offering you to lay down your arms to avoid bloodshed and unnecessary casualties. Otherwise, I am firing.- Russian warship, fuck you. Result: All Ukrainian defenders were killed.
переговоры украинского гарнизона на острове Змеиный. — Я русский военный корабль. Предлагаю сложить оружие и сдаться во избежание коровопролития и неоправданных жертв. В противном случае по вам будет нанесен бомбовый удар. — Русский военный корабль, иди на хуй. все были убиты.
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