Next month, @SecScottBessent and @howardlutnick are set to present recommendations for a US "sovereign wealth fund" (SWF). In this week's Security Economics Podcast, former WH official Daleep Singh explains what a SWF is, and how a US one could work.

Interesting to see Cantor Fitzgerald willing to bet on Trump's IEEPA tariffs being illegal:

The White House now has a fact sheet up on the U.S.-Japan trade deal, though it is lighter on specifics than the term sheets with the U.K. and Indonesia. Some takeaways:. 1. The White House fact sheet places a greater emphasis on Japan's commitment to establish a $550 billion.

A Japan deal with a 15% auto/auto parts tariff will put pressure on the Administration to lower tariff rates (at least to 15%) for North American car parts to avoid inadvertently making US car manufacturing (which uses lots of North American parts!) relatively less competitive.

Preliminary thoughts on the U.S.-Indonesia deal term sheet and the U.S.-Japan deal press (no Japan paper yet, so updates to come), along with broader comments:. 1. The Indonesia term sheet sets tariff rates at 19%, and the Japan deal at 15%. The 15% for Japan appears to cover at.

RT @greg_ip: One reason tariffs haven't affected the stock market more is that they primarily affect the "old economy". GM has $187B in sal….

RT @Brad_Setser: I actually think this is real progress. The Commission has (I hope) recognized that it can no longer make do with pretend….

👇 Great read by the CEO of a US aluminum manufacturer (and classmate of mine from law school!) about how the scope of Trump’s tariffs is undermining US manufacturing, while a more targeted but still tough approach to tariffs would be useful.

RT @gdp1985: I recalculated China's potential trade diversion to include all regions and control for double-counting. In Q2, China potentia….

RT @ianbremmer: responding to tariffs:.amazon raises prices on the cheapest 50% of goods (left) while cutting more expensive items (right)….

RT @Brad_Setser: Delta (the biggest US customer of Airbus) flew over and around the initial US tariffs back in 2020 and 2021 . Won't be….

Brussels is signaling readiness for a full-blown trade war if Trump moves forward with above-10% tariffs on Aug. 1 rather than striking a deal. This would be counterproductive for both sides. Thoughts on costs and getting to yes:. 1. First, much like the trade war the US had with.

If Trump doesn’t reach deals with big U.S. trade partners before August 1 and instead imposes threatened higher tariffs, I expect U.S. trade war costs will finally start to bite. An analysis:. 1. Credit to Trump, to date trade war costs have been lower than initial estimates.

With new Section 232 investigations into drones and polysilicon, Trump is now responsible for more than half of all Section 232 investigations since 1962. Some unsolicited advice on how to make 232 tariffs more effective:. 1. Boost manufacturing by offering rebates based on.

Banning use of Chinese kit in U.S.-connected submarine cables, which carry the vast majority of international internet traffic, is a smart security move by the FCC. (And also a reminder that the FCC has strong national security authorities)!

Looking for July 4th reading? I'm honored to have an article in the Journal of Int'l Econ Law exploring how trade deals can encourage our allies to cut their dependencies on China. "How an economic security pact might work in practice.".

No details on the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal Trump announced on social media, but my take on what it might look like and signal about Trump trade policy. Analysis:. 1. Trump stated that Vietnam is will tariff U.S. products at zero. It isn't clear if this covers literally.

I disagree with reimposing max pressure on Cuba—I’m doubtful an embargo first imposed in 1960 will suddenly work. But doing it on the same day Trump terminated most US sanctions on Syria (a good move) does message that sanctions are not forever and that change will be rewarded.

To be clear, on I substantively disagree with Trump on the minimum tax--I think we should have a global corporate minimum tax, and the U.S. should have a higher corporate tax rate (both of which Biden pushed for). But from Trump's perspective, he is putting points on the board.

Canada caving on DSTs and the G7 exempting the US from global min. tax brings home US leverage in trade negotiations. Trump has blinked at times (145% China tariffs!); too much chaos (and IEEPA tariffs are illegal!); and endgame remains unclear. But he is scoring some points.

Multiple trade developments this week, including implementation of China & UK deals, "terminating" Canada talks, and signals regarding future developments. A rundown:. 1. "Reciprocal" tariffs update: We are less than two weeks out from July 9, when "reciprocal" tariffs are.