Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
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Distinguished Scholar of Global Security at @middlebury, staff at @fpri & @JamesMartinCNS, host of the @ACWpodcast, member @theNASEM CISAC, ex-ISAB at @StateDep
Carmel, CA
Joined March 2009
Thank you for your extremely good-faith criticism. I will give it the attention it deserves.
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I would, of course, prefer the ICC with a broader mandate. But let’s not pretend that an ousted dictator facing justice from an independent judiciary is the same as a Russian or Chinese show trial.
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Say what you will, but let’s say you’ll be accused by the government of a crime you did not commit but all other details are kept behind a veil of ignorance. Do you want an American, Chinese or Russian trial?
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A crucial difference is that Maduro will have a day in court with a judiciary that has often told Trump no.
So when China launches a special op to seize the president of Taiwan: or Russia tries to do the same for Zelensky - what exactly do we say? You can’t do that, it’s illegal?
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I really loathed Rumsfeld, but as best I can tell he was right about one thing: he very much wanted to be grab or kill Saddam in 2003 and let the Iraqis sort it out. Put the W on the board and let the Venezuelans sort it out.
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You’ve just pulled off a historic military achievement; don’t fuck it up.
🚨 Trump says “we are going to run the country” until a transition is able to take place…. “We’re going to run it, essentially, until a proper transition can take place.”
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This is a really good bit of reporting by @Shavlugo on the Oreshnik deployment in Belarus. What we thought was a lumber mill was, in fact, for turning wood into charcoal! Lots of other good details to boot. https://t.co/xZKDRBh4jb
svaboda.org
Раніцай 30 сьнежня беларускае і расейскае міністэрствы абароны прадэманстравалі відэа з кадрамі нібыта «заступленьня на баявое дзяжурства» ў Беларусі ракетнага комплексу «Арэшнік». Свабода сабрала...
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A Community Note for the ages.
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Further support for the hypothesis that Oreshnik is two-stage Yars variant, just like the RS-26 Rubezh: The combat support vehicles for Oreshnik (left) and Yars (right) are the same.
@CombatAir Fairly confident: A. US IC says Oreshnik = RS-26 and they would have technical data like burntime. B. OSINT is sketchier, but probably not enough tests for it to be a new booster, so a two-stage Yars (ie RS-26) seems most likely.
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Also, New START hadn’t expired yet. This is one final violation of the treaty, something that informs my skepticism about Putin’s offer to voluntarily extend the “central qualitative limits” by one year.
Official video declaring Oreshnik IRBM deployment in Belarus by the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces. Mostly support vehicles shown though.
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Official video declaring Oreshnik IRBM deployment in Belarus by the Russian Strategic Rocket Forces. Mostly support vehicles shown though.
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UPDATE: LARRY appears very much alive. In fact, I think he's now the plant manager at the February 11 Plant. What a survivor.
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Like, read your own budget. Your sleigh is filled with nuclear warheads.
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Again, “Energy” is largely a euphemism for “nuclear weapons.” Coal leasing, permitting, royalty rates, etc. are the responsibility of a different cabinet department, Interior.
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@JonathanLanday @Reuters "Technical support area" is an apt description. We should have put that in the write-up. 🤷♂️ https://t.co/tHiAkGc1rj
We (@DuitsmanMS, @ArmsControlWonk, and myself) have identified what is likely the first technical support area in Belarus for the Oreshnik missile. https://t.co/G8zGvzauA9
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@JonathanLanday @Reuters Huge thanks to the gang at Planet Labs for taking such pretty pictures.
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@JonathanLanday @Reuters Our write-up is here. Am about to get on a plane, but hope to tweet more. https://t.co/LXUWaX2U9H
armscontrolwonk.com
A few days ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that “The relocation of the Oreshnik system to the territory of Belarus is nearing [...]
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@JonathanLanday has the story at @Reuters, where he got a confirmation. "The researchers’ assessment broadly aligns with U.S. intelligence findings, said a person familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share information not authorized for public
reuters.com
Deployment of the Oreshnik would underscore the Kremlin’s growing reliance on the threat of nuclear weapons as it seeks to deter NATO members from supplying Kyiv with weapons.
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