Dr. Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
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Professor at @MIIS, staff at @JamesMartinCNS & host of the @ACWpodcast. Member @theNASEM CISAC; former member @StateDept ISAB (2022-2025).
Carmel, CA
Joined March 2009
Thank you for your extremely good-faith criticism. I will give it the attention it deserves.
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(Admittedly, the stories making fun of him in memoirs will be amazing.).
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Blazing-fast image creation – using just your voice. Try Grok Imagine.
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… or Janne Nolan on Weinberger. “Cap, it go boom.” Look, the policies are bad, some of these people are dumb, process is a mess—but when Dems are in office and policies are bad in different ways, the same stories will drop. The reporting was great, the online commentary is not.
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Some of this dysfunction is normal to any administration—newcomer encounters steep learning curve— but is being decontextualuzed to validate a sense that Trump is uniquely incompetent. Read Garthoff on how badly Kissinger misunderstood things his staff tried to explain to him ….
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RT @felschwartz: In @politico today, my deep dive into Steve Witkoff's role in the Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, with exclusive reporting on wh….
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While I agree with all of this, there are also politics in Iran … so I wouldn’t rule out decisions that privilege domestic reactions over international ones.
👇watch this space. But keep it in the “options open” box. And remember even if Iran does this — unlikely in my view — there’s a 3 month implementation period. Iran is seeking a reaction to this. There’s skepticism though among western diplos about threat. -1-.
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I suspect the problem is less Witkoff himself (lots of principals are rich and well-connected naïfs) and more the inability to find competent people to staff him. He was a successful real estate attorney; I am certain he can read memos.
In @politico today, my deep dive into Steve Witkoff's role in the Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, with exclusive reporting on where the effort is now. Some frustrated U.S., Ukrainian and European officials say part of the problem is the go-it-alone style of Witkoff, Trump’s special.
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A new @ACWPodcast where @aaronstein1 and I discuss @alexbward's reporting on the Pentagon process restricting Ukraine's ability to strike targets in Russia.
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RT @jongambrellAP: European nations start process to impose a 'snapback' of #Iran nuclear sanctions at UN
apnews.com
France, Germany and the United Kingdom have started a process to reimpose U.N. sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program.
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RT @laurnorman: I understand there’s a euro ministerial call around now to decide on SnapBack and way ahead. E3 and possibly @kajakallas th….
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This is a really cool opportunity for reporters interested in the bomb, a topic that is sadly relevant again.
Join us at the Outrider Nuclear Reporting Summit on October 9-10!. This free, two-day event will focus on how #nuclearweapons issues intersect with AI, community health, #climatechange, local economies, and the #environment. 🔗 APPLY NOW:
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RT @BarakRavid: A second source told me the Iranians gave E3 representatives very little to work with in order to get an extension of the S….
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RT @laurnorman: So the Russian draft extension of 2231, reported by @mashabani, seems to have a provision that would exclude SnapBack in fu….
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RT @RichardMNephew: Your interpretation of those words makes sense to me, Laurence, and that would be either -- as you say -- a pretty bad….
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I just got around to looking at that video and all I can say is STOP THAT. The North Koreans are much more careful and even then we almost always find the factory in a day.
I am dreadfully confused as to why Ukraine is showing so much imagery of their critical missile production facility. I have geolocated North Korean facilities with less.
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A weird thing about OSINT is that one spends a lot of time counting, measuring and doing other extremely tedious tasks and then other people have big feelings about the number.
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RT @simon_krona: En miljökatastrof och en ”grotesk förhandsvisning av vår framtid” – det säger @ArmsControlWonk om den ryska rustningen inf….
svt.se
120 mil från Sverige • Professorn: ”Inte ett scoutläger”
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The @sam_lair has an excellent post on the failure rate of Iranian solid-propellant missiles during the "12-Day war" (Operation True Promise II) with Israel. ~10% of Iran's solid propellant missiles failed during boost, an improvement over the past.
armscontrolwonk.com
This is the first in a series of posts I am writing on True Promise II to complement the piece I did on ABM expenditures during the 12 Day War. I hope it [...]
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RT @laurnorman: Yep. Nor is there any sign yet of Iran sitting down with E3 in told. Despite Iranian comments suggesting otherwise. They st….
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