Dorothy said ‘There’s no place like home’ because that’s where she understood the recycling.

RT @ProbFact: “In no other branch of mathematics is it so easy for experts to blunder as in probability theory.” — Martin Gardner.

Join millions who have switched to Grok.

I listen to podcasts all day long whilst I work - but this episode of ⁦@QuietRiotPod⁩ by ⁦@sturdyAlex⁩ hits like a punch in the guts. Very worth a listen

How often does Logan Sargent yellow flag?🤦🏼‍♂️.

We all need to revere xkcd like some kind of religious text.

RT @rlmcelreath: The folks at @ISBA_events tell me my book Statistical Rethinking has won the 2024 DeGroot Prize for its contributions to "….

RT @SkyNews: A man killed during the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania dived on his family to try to shiel….

Farewell Jimmy Anderson. Thank you for the memories ❤️.

Maybe I need to direct thoughts like this directly to @metoffice.

So my conclusion is that the advertised probs apply not to an hour but to a whole day. I could believe, for example, that it rains on 30% of days like today, if the whole day endured conditions like those prevailing now. (I get that changes but that’s fine; the probs change).

I ask because the probabilities look too big to me. I often see 20-40% for the hours in UK days. But that would suggest the prob of a dry 10 hour day (ie you can dry washing on the line) is about (1-0.3)^10 = 3%. And I don’t believe it rains on 97% of days like today.

A question for statisticians, probabilists, and fans of the weather. Do you regard these probs as the probability that it will rain in each hour? . Or the chances that it would rain over the course of the day if the conditions stayed as advertised?

RT @hannahrosewoods: Right

But…but…public service.

Cameron has a huge legacy of idiocy and damage to the UK. This policy was right up there. It has been revoked by the new government within days of coming to power. Turns out, governing for good is possible when you’re not a complete dick.

RT @OzKaterji: A children’s hospital & a maternity hospital miles apart don’t get bombed in the same day by accident. This is a premeditat….

RT @Euan_MacDonald: If you're in the UK, imagine fascist Russia bombing Great Ormand Street Hospital in London - that's effectively what ju….

Maybe England can start their games 1-0 behind.

RT @IanDunt: Take it in. The first female chancellor. The first housing secretary who's actually lived in social housing. The first educati….

RT @catherinerowett: This needs to be ended. Prime ministers who leave in disgrace should not have any pension for life. Maybe they need to….