Christopher Vecchio, CFA
@CVecchioFX
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Head of Futures & Forex @tastyliveshow
NYC
Joined January 2010
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@jimsciutto
yes, prevents Russian CB from propping up the value of the Ruble, plus could lead to a run on Russian banks. will increase domestic pressure on Putin.
it's a consequential escalation by the West, to say the least.
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Updated per
@zerohedge
- BItcoin $BTCUSD milestones
$0000 - $1000: 1789 days
----
$12,000-$13,000: 17 hours
$13,000-$14,000: 4 hours
$14,000-$15,000: 10 hours
$15,000-$16,000: 5 hours
$16,000-$17,000: 2 hours
$17,000-$18,000: 10 minutes
$18,000-$19,000: 3 minutes
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@CyrilAimery
@jimsciutto
The Russian central bank can't liquidate its foreign currency holdings now. e.g. it can't sell its EUR and buy RUB to support the Ruble. This is an economically- and financially-material development.
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Russian debt-to-GDP is ~18%. Over 80% of Russian debt is denominated in $RUB. Higher energy prices have filled Russia's coffers for the past year.
Financial markets can push $USDRUB higher all they want - it's not going change the calculus.
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@Popehat
as the son of two attorneys who studied con law in college, let me tell you why youre wrong… 1/638
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I’ve been away since the end of January as I’ve been on paternity leave, welcoming the birth of my first daughter!
Both mom and baby are healthy, and given how much the world has changed over the past 10 weeks, that’s all I can really ask for.
I hope everyone is staying safe.
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US Senate votes 51-50, with VP Harris casting the tiebreaking vote, to adopt a budget blueprint for President Biden's $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus plans. Committees have until February 16 to draw together a budget.
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It's official.
UK parliament approves
#Brexit
bill, 330-231.
UK will leave the EU on January 31, 2020.
$GBPUSD $GBPJPY $EURGBP
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A question I frequently get asked these days is, "Is it realistic to believe that the US Dollar can lose its role in the global economy?" In short, yes. It's all about Bretton Woods and the US-China trade war. 1/10
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@ggreenwald
@nycsouthpaw
smearing the victim makes the offense less offensive, obviously. "oh he's not perfect?
he deserved it" ... smh
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Can’t say I’m thrilled about this.
@victorJ0NES
was a great sparring partner on air, and an even better coworker and friend offscreen.
I’m looking forward to when our paths cross again in the future.
Thanks for everything, Vic.
Some personal news:
I’ve decided to take some time off. The last 4+ years with Tasty has been an absolutely incredible journey. Few are granted the opportunity to learn from the best in their industry and I’m grateful to have been one of those few.
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@ne0liberal
it’s almost as if BlackRock sees a scarce asset - housing - and knows that it will remain scarce because the solution - increased housing stock - isn’t coming to fruition anytime soon.
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Thrilled to report that I've passed the Level III CFA Exam!
@CFAinstitute
Thanks
@CFANewYork
for helping me prepare!
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I find it extremely interesting that many think we’re close to the “end” of the pandemic (the health aspect).
In reality, 30% hesitancy among 18+ means less than 60% (closer to 55%) of the population will reach herd immunity in 2021.
COVID may be endemic for the next few years.
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To no surprise, US steel and aluminum industry insiders are a fan of the 25% and 10% tariffs, respectively. As is often the case with protectionist tariffs, prices for goods using steel + aluminum will rise for entire economy while these insiders will capture the surplus.
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USD wrecking ball continues as short-end US yields rise to highest levels since 2007.
$GBPUSD now below 1.1000 for the first time since March 1985.
$EURUSD below 0.9800 for the first time since October 2002.
$USDJPY at highest rate since August 1998.
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Remember when Trump said Fed was only keep rates low because of pressure from Obama? Now he says he likes low rates and Yellen. Good times.
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May FOMC minutes are out. Nothing surprising to note; conversations about inflation pressures, 50-bps at next few meetings, restrictive policy all revealed earlier this month.
Contextually, 75-bps really doesn't seem likely in June.
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The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth tracker for 2Q'22 update is out, and it's ugly: -2.1% annualized.
@victorJ0NES
@JStanleyFX
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@Conservativeind
@NumbersMuncher
This is a breathtakingly stupid take. Congrats, quite the accomplishment.
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Live now -- talking the post-September Fed world with
@jam_croissant
and
@victorJ0NES
on Jones & Friends
@tastytrade
:
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@jimcramer
No, not when you consider the structure of CFs for fledgling tech companies compared to more established traditional businesses. Why pay a premium for future growth when real CFs can be had closer to present day?
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Some sanctions that might actually have some impact on Russian invasion of Ukraine:
*EU, US AGREE TO CUT SOME RUSSIAN BANKS FROM SWIFT
*EU, US AGREE TO SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK
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@Conservativeind
@NumbersMuncher
sticking your head in the sand and ignoring *new* information as it comes to light is an interesting strategy. best of luck to you and your performative antics.
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Once we get past Fed next week, central bank calendar thins out considerably through the turn of the year. Rate decisions spread thin in first two months of 2019. Note: all Fed meetings in 2019 will have a press conference.
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Well I'm off the next few weeks - getting married tomorrow (!) and then onto Italy for the honeymoon. See everyone in September!
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@Birdyword
Why do we care what Larry Summers thinks? He’s been doing a 180 on secular stagnation since Yellen scored Fed Chair and and now Sec’y of Treasury. He’s evidentially a political opportunist with overt undertones of sexism (oh yea, and palled around with Epstein). No thanks!
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Can't help but think about Musk's $GME tweet. IIRC, didn't Melvin Capital publicly take a short position on $TSLA years back?
Reminds me of the say, "revenge is a dish best served cold."
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@nycsouthpaw
Former Democrat Donald Trump wins the presidency as a Republican, former Republican Eric Adams wins NYC mayoral race as a Democrat. Interesting few years.
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@nntaleb
The irony of banning Dostoevsky, who was jailed in Siberia for reading banned books critical of Tsarist Russia…insanity
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USD-pairs at multi-month extremes
$USDCAD - lowest since 9/26/17
$AUDUSD - highest since 9/20/17
$NZDUSD - highest since 9/20/17
$USDJPY - lowest since 9/12/17
$USDCHF - lowest since 9/11/17
$GBPUSD - highest since 6/23/16 (day of Brexit vote)
$EURUSD - highest since 12/18/14
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$USDJPY rates on the cusp of setting a new yearly high >145.90. Traders should be on alert for intervention news from the BOJ the next few days.
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@AlecMacGillis
@SethAMandel
This would be “possibly reassuring” once we hit the two week mark. Otherwise, still hopes and dreams.
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They're not sanctions, they're a Special Economic Operation designed to save Russia's economy.
Putin says Russia will solve its problems, calls sanctions illegitimate
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It was a treat to talk to
@UrbanKaoboy
today with
@victorJ0NES
.
Today’s episode of Jones & Friends was one of my favorites thus far, up there with when we’ve had
@DivesTech
,
@spotgamma
,
@BennettTomlin
, or
@jam_croissant
(who will be back this Thursday) on the show.
“This whole second guessing whether it’s 75 vs. 100, to me, is like analyzing the tread thickness of the bulldozer that’s about to run over your head.”
@UrbanKaoboy
dropped gem after gem on me and
@CVecchioFX
on
@tastytrade
.
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If China's long-game is to displace the USD as the global reserve currency, then it makes complete sense to issue USD-denominated debt: as USD depreciates, it will be cheaper to pay back the debt over time.
Just like how
@mcuban
converted his debt JPY before Abenomics.
$STUDY
A Record-Breaking Dollar Bond Offering From China Could Be Imminent
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"Best house in a bad neighborhood" sentiment underlying USD strength: EUR has ECB embarking on new easing; GBP & BOE dealing with Brexit; rising BOC cut odds weighing on CAD; China slowdown gives RBA reason to pause, hurting AUD. Carry trade effect playing out.
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@jbarro
It’s in vogue on the new left to figure out reasons to hate America, which affords everyone opportunities unheard of and unseen for most of human history in most (if not all) places on earth.
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@LindseyBoylan
@NYGovCuomo
All elected officials who have constituents in NYC bare this responsibility. From city council to state assembly to governor, they’ve had years to work together and find a solution. They’ve all failed for years. Why should any current sitting elected be trusted to fix this now?
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As $USDCNH advances around 2% today, it's important to recognize that this is *the exact response required* to offset 10% tariffs on $300B of goods.
From the July 2018 note, "US-China Trade War Enters New Phase amid Yuan Depreciation" 1/n
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Trade wars are good, and easy to win.
USDA pulls staff from Midwest crop tour as farmer tensions mount
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The bond market (/ZBZ3, /UBZ3) is acting like the Fed isn’t serious about pausing, while the rates market (/SR3Z4) is acting like the Fed isn’t serious about keep the main rate at 5.1% through 2024.
Until this cycle, Treasury bonds had rallied at every Fed pause.
Assuming July was the last hike (which I believe), bonds are not behaving anything like they have in previous cycles.
@3F_Research
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@jimcramer
No, they need the Fed to stop withdrawing liquidity. Nothing changes until the macro winds shift direction.
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@prchovanec
The 2022 election was a 2010 redux. No one should be surprised if the US credit rating is downgraded in the next few years
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Bitcoin higher after this tweet $BTCUSD
I am not a fan of Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies, which are not money, and whose value is highly volatile and based on thin air. Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity....
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Gold prices clearing some important technical hurdles as discussed in yesterday's bullion note: $GC_F $XAUUSD $GLD
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The Fed's Monetary Policy Report has been released: -- some highlighted passages per
@RichDvorakFX
#TeamTransitory
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Damn: after downing two plates of spaghetti and half a sandwich, Kasich orders pasta fagioli
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@felixsalmon
I agree.
@Birdyword
Why do we care what Larry Summers thinks? He’s been doing a 180 on secular stagnation since Yellen scored Fed Chair and and now Sec’y of Treasury. He’s evidentially a political opportunist with overt undertones of sexism (oh yea, and palled around with Epstein). No thanks!
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This kind of backwards looking commentary is a pointless exercise in degrading your own intelligence, and biases you to overreact to the next opportunity so you don't 'miss out' again. Wishing you didn't miss out is not an investment strategy.
Billionaire Marc Lasry: I should have bought bitcoin when it was at $300
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@Noahpinion
if that were true then how come so many of us are facing the same budget problems each month
Food $200
Data $150
Rent $800
Candles $3,600
Utility $150
someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. my family is dying
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A good day for a hike through the woods with the little one.
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There can’t be a second spike/wave...if you don’t beat the first one? 🤔
KUDLOW: "Look, I'm not the health expert, but on the so-called spike, I spoke to our health experts at some length last evening. They're saying there is no second spike. Let me repeat that. There is no second spike."
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US budget deficit tops $1 trillion in first 11 months of fiscal year - this is largest non-war, non-recession deficit spending in US history.
Is this a surprise from a government run by the self-described "King of Debt"?
I am "the king of debt."That has been great for me as a businessman, but is bad for the country. I made a fortune off of debt, will fix U.S.
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Fed leaves rates unchanged, QE unchanged, announces two new repo facilities, and only says that "progress" - but not "substantial" -has been made.
Bond markets are seeing this with an ever-so-slightly hawkish hue; long-end flattening, butterflies show higher intermediate rates.
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@STR0
‘Judge me not by my friends but by my enemies’
if these are the type of people standing against you, you’re probably doing something right
keep up the good fight!
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The Jan US NFP report was expected to be noisy, but, wow
+517K vs +188K expected
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Dow down ~1120 points now. Last few minutes have felt flash crashy. No, it hasn’t been rising inflation expectations the past week; its skyrocketing US political risk.
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It’s taken just four weeks in lockdown for the US economy to lose nearly 22 million jobs — equivalent to all of the jobs created since the Great Recession.
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July FOMC meeting minutes have been released:
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Israel and Hamas reach tentative U.S.-brokered deal to pause conflict, free dozens of hostages - The Washington Post
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Back in NYC. Great dinner with Tom,
@traderBRIT
and the
@tastyliveshow
team.
And a great time with
@JermalChandler
and
@DonDeanX
afterwards. The best place on earth.
America is already great.
See everyone tomorrow morning.
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$GBPUSD rips above 1.2900 as BOE Governor Carney says 'some removal of BOE stimulus may be necessary.'
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Ok Mr. Kuroda ;) Reminder:
Jan 21, Kuroda to Diet: "No plans for NIRP"
Jan 29: BOJ introduces NIRP.
$USDJPY $NKY
KURODA: NOT CONSIDERING LOWERING NEG.-RATE FURTHER AT THIS TIME
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FOMC minutes are out. Some color around QT/balance sheet reduction ($95B/month: $60B Treasuries, $35B MBS) and chatter about a 50-bps rate hike in the coming meetings. Minor reaction by USD, gold, USTs.
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$ES $SPY $SPX attempting to break 2022 downtrend, moving above 200-SMA...important (technical) week coming up for stocks
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Major top coming into focus for the US Dollar? Bearish rising wedge in play, 200-SMA nearby. $DXY
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I recall seeing a survey after the April US NFP report suggesting that approximately 80% of the job losses/furloughs/etc were expected to be temporary...
The May US NFP report may have just validated that narrative.
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@KevinMKruse
ah so because there are Manhattan DA candidates taking about not prosecuting certain crimes, that must mean by extension NYC mayoral candidates (ignoring the difference in office & jurisdiction) should have said they would make crime illegal. gotcha gotcha.
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Fed's Powell says FOMC has patience regarding raising rates, only question is, how much more do US stocks & oil need to rebound before FOMC is comfortable?
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@Conservativeind
@NumbersMuncher
you don't seem to have a grasp of this subject matter whatsoever, and as a public figure you have a platform, so I encourage you to review the data yourself:
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Watching oil markets here as a US-backed soft coup appears to be underway in Venezuela.
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Still early today, but $EURUSD is working on a bearish daily key reversal in the middle of its recent 1.2155-1.2559 range (supp/res marked by key reversals on 2/16 and 3/01).
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If Hamas understands the severity of their situation, they’ll put down their rockets, release the hostages, and stand trial for their crimes.
If Israel puts down their weapons…we’ll see another Holocaust.
No moral equivalency here. None.
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Citi: "If September hike - Buy $USDCAD. If September skipped - Buy $AUDJPY."
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Just finished recording this week's episode of The Macro Setup with
@GuyAdami
and
@RiskReversal
-- we talk gold,
#Bitcoin
, the rise in US yields.
And starting next week,
@HathornSabin
will be joining us!
Video will be published shortly.
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@bendreyfuss
Warn officials about Osama and the USS Cole hopelessly for years, after which point they’d take me seriously about 9/11.
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@djkocisi2
@CyrilAimery
@jimsciutto
Russian central bank has just over $132B of gold as of end of January
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NY Fed Inflation Expectations survey for October turn higher. 1-year ahead now up to 5.9% from 5.4% in September.
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January US NFP come in at +49K vs +50K expected. Surprisingly on the nose, considering that the range of estimates varied from +400K to -250K. Unemployment rate (U3) comes in at 6.3% vs 6.7% previously, with LFPR at 61.4% vs 61.5% previously.
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Transcript of Fed Chair Powell's 2023 Jackson Hole speech:
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Is the US economy in a recession? Are we heading towards one?
Depending upon where you look - hard data, surveys, the bond market - you'll get a different story.
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@mikepiazza31
@Pete_Alonso20
As a kid whose parents were there, I remember feeling such fear that things would never return to normal after 9/11. Then you hit *that* home run; and I knew things would eventually be okay again. Thanks for lifting us up.
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Fed cuts 2016 GDP forecast, long-run GDP forecast, 2016 inflation; slashes rate glide path further. All USD negative.
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November FOMC meeting: rates on hold. Policy statement (per
@WSJmarkets
) barely changed from September.
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Hot indeed: headline US CPI comes in at +8.6% y/y, core +6% y/y.
$DXY takes another leg up as bear steepening hits UST yield curve; 2s10s spread <20-bps again.
$ES & $NQ both off by more than -1% after the data release.
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